NET Rankings / Bracketology

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#51
Yes the situation is getting pretty ugly. I almost think we need to win this one because even though the matchups are favorable, 5 straight is not likely.
The only way this situation is ugly is if Ayo doesn't come back. That's it. If we win the games we're supposed to win:

Nebraska
Northwestern
Indiana
Iowa

That's puts us at minimum of 20-11(12-8). We're fine.

If we can swipe Penn State or Ohio State....then we're talking about a better seed. Just win the games we're favored to win from here on out. No negative shockers.
 
#52
Not sure where all this we are 90% or better of making the tournament. Here are the “odds” in Black & White? We are projected AT THIS MOMENT of being an 11 seed with a 52% chance of making the tournament. This is by definition bubblicious? Again, orange and blue glasses (contacts in AZ’s case) are distorting many of your views.
Will we get in, can we get in? Yes! But we have serious work to do starting with beating Iowa at home and yes Northwestern on the road. I also feel we will need at least one BTT win. I have been watching college basketball for over 50 years, I have seen this story before is Illinois is by definition a coin flip of getting in right now?
I do believe Ayo will come back and get them to the dance, but if you think they are a lock your simply fooling yourself and overrating this team. The non con is as bad as it can be and it matters when it comes to seating, but also simply making it or not?
 

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#53
The only way this situation is ugly is if Ayo doesn't come back. That's it. If we win the games we're supposed to win:

Nebraska
Northwestern
Indiana
Iowa

That's puts us at minimum of 20-11(12-8). We're fine.

If we can swipe Penn State or Ohio State....then we're talking about a better seed. Just win the games we're favored to win from here on out. No negative shockers.
19-11 one win does not count.
 
#55
One more proof source? CBS says “Illinois on the bubble”. Just saying?
Along with 20 other teams, including Michigan, Rutgers, etc...

They also have them as a 7 seed.

I think you're going overboard with the freaking out. The way I look at is if we can't beat NW or Nebraska, they don't belong. I don't care if they won at Rutgers or not.

The only reason to worry, right now, is if Ayo does not come back. That's a legit concern. Some document that literally is fluid as each game is played means nothing.

Indiana and Minnesota have worries. Until we lose to Nebraska or NW, we're fine. Get off the ledge.
 
#56
Springfiled, IL.
I will try this. Still think we are in if we beat Nebraska, Northwestern and Indiana. Plus 1 of Ohio St and Iowa or Win 1 in BTT.

Team Net Record SS Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Illinois 38 15-9 38 5-7 2-1 2-1 6-0

Purdue 33 14-12 63 3-9 4-1 3-2 4-0

Florida 35 16-9 41 3-6 3-3 6-0 4-0

Xavier 39 16-9 19 2-8 6-1 4-0 4-0

Alabama 36 14-11 5 2-6 4-4 5-1 3-0

Standford 37 16-9 91 2-5 2-3 5-1 7-0

Utah St 41 19-7 94 2-4 2-2 6-1 9-0

Georgetown 43 15-10 4 5-9 4-1 1-0 5-0

Minnesota 44 12-12 21 4-10 2-2 2-0 4-0

Richmond 45 19-6 84 2-4 2-1 6-1 9-0

Arkansas 48 16-9 18 2-5 2-4 8-0 6-0

USC 49 19-7 65 2-6 6-0 6-1 5-0

Arizona St 50 17-8 26 4-6 3-2 5-0 5-0

VCU 52 17-8 68 1-5 1-2 9-0 6-1

Miss St 53 16-9 47 2-6 3-1 6-2 5-0

N.C. St 61 16-9 90 3-2 4-4 4-3 5-0
 
#57
Along with 20 other teams, including Michigan, Rutgers, etc...

They also have them as a 7 seed.

I think you're going overboard with the freaking out. The way I look at is if we can't beat NW or Nebraska, they don't belong. I don't care if they won at Rutgers or not.

The only reason to worry, right now, is if Ayo does not come back. That's a legit concern. Some document that literally is fluid as each game is played means nothing.

Indiana and Minnesota have worries. Until we lose to Nebraska or NW, we're fine. Get off the ledge.
Ok freaking out? Tough to infer That from an internet post. AGAIN, I believe we are in and said as much so especially if Ayo is ok. That being said, to feel we are a 7 seed at this point is ostrich. Put your head in the sand and close your eyes. This team needs 4 more wins minimum, don’t care where but need 4 and I believe no win in the BTT and winning all but loosing to tOSU and PSU is starring play in game right in the face. You can think I am “freak out” as you say, not sure how you got that from anything I said, but reality is a BTCH sometime and we have work to do and it won’t just happen. We had a 7 game winning streak against nothing but middle level BIG teams. Have we beat anybody outside of Rutgers in the top of the league no, have we won even one game against the top 75 outside of the league? No. Like I said, I expect they will make it and that is great for the expectations of this year, but keep fooling yourself that they are in now no matter what. I have seen years like scUM a few years ago. All we needed to do was win that game and we are in. Did we get in? No

Hope we do great but we are clearly one Of many bubble teams right now?
 
#60
When selection Sunday comes and if we don’t have 20 wins, someone might need to check in on LouHenson
Lol seriously guys I BELIEVE they get in, I really do. Just worry about a young team that has not experienced success, who had a nice 7 game stretch of “good” wins, but no great wins. Add that to the real lack of a good OOC win, and it maybe dicey.

I guess I am also worried that their margin of error is razor thin now. If they had one of the home games I think it is a lock right now, but they did not? Is it possible a team that struggles to score could loose to IU, Iowa, @Northwestern just one of them? I would say it is entirely possible? You guys don’t want to hear me go through the whole record analysis again, so I will just shut up now.
Just wish I felt as confident as some of you guys! Let’s say for sure I hope so!
 
#61
Of course it's possible. Iowa and Indiana are not going to be sure things. And we'll be underdogs with Iowa in town without Ayo.
 
#62
I like Bracket Matrix site (average of 78 different Brackets). We are an 8 Seed on that site. We win what we are supposed to win 12-8 in B10. We are a lock for a bye in B10 tourney & at large bid. If we lose out or only win 1-2 more we do not belong in.
 
#63
Wins against Nebraska, Northwestern, and Indiana would get us to 11-9 and should be in but would have me nervous with our terrible non conference. That could be a play in scenario for us. We should be rooting against Minnesota and Indiana as they will likely take 10 big ten teams.
 
#64
I agree 10 max B10 teams make it. I’d put Purdue on the bubble too by virtue of their near .500 record, as well as Rutgers by virtue of road record and only 2 Q1 wins.

If season were to end now I think the top 9 teams currently in B10 standings make it, with PU, Minn, and IU fighting for the 10th spot. Rutgers I think is in now, but is in much worse spot than Illini.

Purdue winning a bit would get us our 7th Q1 win for what it’s worth, as they’re 33 currently.
 
#66
31 on Kempom. And for Strength of Schedule 10 of the top 14 teams are BIG 10 teams. Such a good conference this year - love that
 
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#68
We played 6 teams outside the top 200, and 4 of those were outside the top 250. I'm wondering if simply scheduling better cupcakes would make a big difference in our NET ranking.

If we played 6 teams in the 150-200 range instead of 250+ range then maybe our NET ranking goes up another 6 or 7 spots?
 
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#69
Good point on the cupcakes. I also think that we had close wins against those cupcakes that may effectively count as a net negative even though its a W.
 
#71
Minnesota eliminated. Check out this gauntlet for the B10 bubble teams...

Purdue: 4 games : 3 Q1 + 1 Q2 (Indiana)
Rutgers: 4 games : All Q1 (3 of which are away, and home game is vs Maryland)
Indiana: 5 games: 4 Q1 + 1 Q2 (Minnesota)

Rutgers seems most vulnerable to having bubble burst. Purdue likely needs 4 more wins between now and end of B10 tournament, maybe 3. That's my guess at least. I think Indiana is good with 2 more wins.

For reference...
Illinois: 5 games: 2 Q1 + 1 Q2 + 1 Q3 + 1 Q4

I think if we handle business with Nebraska and Northwestern, then that will be enough to get a bid.
 
#72
Minnesota eliminated. Check out this gauntlet for the B10 bubble teams...

Purdue: 4 games : 3 Q1 + 1 Q2 (Indiana)
Rutgers: 4 games : All Q1 (3 of which are away, and home game is vs Maryland)
Indiana: 5 games: 4 Q1 + 1 Q2 (Minnesota)

Rutgers seems most vulnerable to having bubble burst. Purdue likely needs 4 more wins between now and end of B10 tournament, maybe 3. That's my guess at least. I think Indiana is good with 2 more wins.

For reference...
Illinois: 5 games: 2 Q1 + 1 Q2 + 1 Q3 + 1 Q4

I think if we handle business with Nebraska and Northwestern, then that will be enough to get a bid.
Oh yeah. That Penn State win on the road took the sting away from that Michigan State loss. We lose home a game, thinking we lost Ayo for the year to winning a road game vs a top 10 team and Ayo scoring 24. What a difference one week makes.
 
#73
Waukegan
This is off topic but I didn't see another thread that might be more appropriate. How is OSU ranked 25th AP and 24th Coaches poll? I understand that the NET likes OSU but as I also understand it (probably from what I have read here at IL) the AP and Coaches polls rely more on wins/losses and conference standings (which of course are related to wins/losses) and not on NET. And four teams that have better conference records and above OSU in the B1G standings aren't even ranked, our own beloved, of course, Rutgers, Wisconsin and MSU (although MSU is ranked 25 in Coaches). Okay, this is mostly a rant but still doesn't make much sense to me.
 
#74
Say we finish the season with a nine game winning streak, including the BTT final. Would that guarantee us a protected (i.e. 1 thru 4) seed in the Midwest Regional? Put another way, what is our seed ceiling?
 
#75
Pebble Beach, CA
Bracket Brad's Big Board

For all the talk about our poor non-conference scheduling, I find it interesting that out of all the BIG tourney hopefuls, our SOS is better than all but Wisconsin's. I know the unbalanced BIG schedule plays into that, but still.
 
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