NET Rankings / Bracketology

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#76

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Our non conference scheduling is fine. You just have to beat a power 5 school during the non conference instead of losing all 3 games. That is what is killing our NET ranking
 
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#77
Not sure where all this we are 90% or better of making the tournament. Here are the “odds” in Black & White? We are projected AT THIS MOMENT of being an 11 seed with a 52% chance of making the tournament. This is by definition bubblicious? Again, orange and blue glasses (contacts in AZ’s case) are distorting many of your views.
Will we get in, can we get in? Yes! But we have serious work to do starting with beating Iowa at home and yes Northwestern on the road. I also feel we will need at least one BTT win. I have been watching college basketball for over 50 years, I have seen this story before is Illinois is by definition a coin flip of getting in right now?
I do believe Ayo will come back and get them to the dance, but if you think they are a lock your simply fooling yourself and overrating this team. The non con is as bad as it can be and it matters when it comes to seating, but also simply making it or not?
Check your sources there. No way we’re surrounded by 90+% teams and 14-12 Purdue has a higher probability of making the tournament. We’re pretty firmly in right now and will make the tourney unless something catastrophic happens. Looking at 7 or 8 seed right now
 
#78
Say we finish the season with a nine game winning streak, including the BTT final. Would that guarantee us a protected (i.e. 1 thru 4) seed in the Midwest Regional? Put another way, what is our seed ceiling?
If we don't lose between now and selection Sunday? We'd be a lock for a top 4 seed (top 16 teams). Can't guarantee Indy though, someone has to go west. Other than Gonzaga and overrated SDSU, there is no one, so someone will get the short-end of the stick.
 
#79
Louhensons post was before Tuesday's game. Road win at #9 PSU was huge. Illini are firmly off the bubble at this time. Also, road wins at WISC, MICH, and PSU look good to committee.
 
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#81
No
Check your sources there. No way we’re surrounded by 90+% teams and 14-12 Purdue has a higher probability of making the tournament. We’re pretty firmly in right now and will make the tourney unless something catastrophic happens. Looking at 7 or 8 seed right now
[/QUOTE

no question after PSU
 
#82
BU:1 Trash cans:0
Chicago
NET Men's Basketball Rankings (thru 2/19/20):

7 MD
15 MSU
17 OSU
24 PSU
25 Mich
27 Iowa
29 Wisc
32 Purdue
33 Rutgers
34 Illinois
53 Minn
59 Indiana
160 NU
175 Neb
 
#84
Net rankings are absurd.. whether the NCAA uses them or not.
Well i think they make a little sense . What sucks for us is they include the first half of the season before we made some changes in our approach. I wonder what it would look like if it was computed after we made those changes. We were not playing very good for first part of the season. We are not the same team now but unfortunately that is factored in. It is working against us and helping those that had a good non-conference like Michigan, Purdue, OSU, and others.

OSU has a tough schedule these last 6 games so we will see just what they can do starting tonight at Iowa. I for one hope they win. They are at Iowa, Neb, and MSU and home vs our Illini, Michigan and Maryland. We will see how good they are now.
 
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#85
Say we finish the season with a nine game winning streak, including the BTT final. Would that guarantee us a protected (i.e. 1 thru 4) seed in the Midwest Regional? Put another way, what is our seed ceiling?
I believe that would do it.
 
#88
Net rankings are absurd.. whether the NCAA uses them or not.
I like the NET, and prefer it to the RPI. NET has devalued the W/L result, so I can see where that's frustrating to people who believe the end result is all that matters (which is true on the court).

I did a quick analysis (so there might be some errors) to help explain the Illini ranking. The first number is the Illini current ranking, and the 2nd number is what their ranking would be IF they had defeated both Miami and Missouri by 10 points instead of losing.

1. Team Value Index = Mystery, we don't know how its calculated but its really helping to lift the B10 this year.
2. Net Efficiency = 54 >> 40
3. Winning % = 82 >> 42
4. Adjusted Winning % = 98 >> 46
5. Scoring Margin = 56 (approx) >> 40 (approx)


Those two losses have had a big impact, especially because the Illini have had so many close games. Those loses would be minimized if they had a few more games they won by large margins because scoring margin factors into both the Efficiency and Scoring Margin components.

EDIT:
For comparison here's MSU's component rankings.
2. Net Efficiency = 16
3. Winning % = 70
4. Adjusted Winning % = 82
5. Scoring Margin = 20 (approx)
 
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#89
Our non conference scheduling is fine. You just have to beat a power 5 school during the non conference instead of losing all 3 games. That is what is killing our NET ranking
Except for the D2 game. Not sure what the thought process was behind that... would be nice to have that extra win right now to officially count.
 
#90
I like the NET, and prefer it to the RPI. NET has devalued the W/L result, so I can see where that's frustrating to people who believe the end result is all that matters (which is true on the court).

I did a quick analysis (so there might be some errors) to help explain the Illini ranking. The first number is the Illini current ranking, and the 2nd number is what their ranking would be IF they had defeated both Miami and Missouri by 10 points instead of losing.

1. Team Value Index = Mystery, we don't know how its calculated but its really helping to lift the B10 this year.
2. Net Efficiency = 54 >> 40
3. Winning % = 82 >> 42
4. Adjusted Winning % = 98 >> 46
5. Scoring Margin = 56 (approx) >> 40 (approx)


Those two losses have had a big impact, especially because the Illini have had so many close games. Those loses would be minimized if they had a few more games they won by large margins because scoring margin factors into both the Efficiency and Scoring Margin components.

EDIT:
For comparison here's MSU's component rankings.
2. Net Efficiency = 16
3. Winning % = 70
4. Adjusted Winning % = 82
5. Scoring Margin = 20 (approx)
I just can't reconcile..we beat Purdue badly twice, they are 14 and 13,. IU is their only significant road win...they beat uva and MSU at home on hot nights...we have the bad Miami loss and Missouri...who beat Auburn....in my mind, no way should Purdue be ahead of us
 
#91
Yeah, I agree, Purdue doesn't make sense. Looking at their team sheet the only thing that stands would be their 15 Q1 games to our 12, and their 14 road/neutral games to our 11. Their efficiency is worse than Illini's so the MSU/Arizona comparison doesn't fit.
 
#92
We beat Michigan and Purdue Twice! Wiscy and PSU at their place! Yet all four teams ahead of Illini on NET. Dumb program.
 
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#93
While I think NET is better than RPI, it seems to overvalue blowout wins and undervalue tough road wins. A road win by 1 is worth far more in my mind than a home blowout of 20. And what does margin of victory really measure? There were a few times early in the season when we were up double digits and BU tried different lineups, trying to get young players experience, and the lead evaporated, resulting in a closer game than the final score indicated. I agree that the Miami and Missouri losses have killed us, but, as a young team, we play up to the competition and down to it, and so we aren't likely to blow out many teams. We're still learning to play consistently. Until we learn to set our own standards and play to them, the NET will not be our friend. I do think, if it is heavily relied upon come tourney time, we will be underseeded and yet over perform (given our road record).
 
#95
Some posters act like the committee is just going to go down the latest NET list on Selection Sunday ... I was under the impression it was a new tool they were using to help them a bit more, nothing more and nothing less.

If we finish 4-1 (difficult, but that’s my prediction), we’re about a 7, possibly even a 6. BTT could get us in some real nice territory.
 
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#96
Say we finish the season with a nine game winning streak, including the BTT final. Would that guarantee us a protected (i.e. 1 thru 4) seed in the Midwest Regional? Put another way, what is our seed ceiling?
If we win out, we will be a 3 seed... I hope we finish strong and get a 6, but a 7/10 would be good for us too. as long as we beat Nebraska and northwestern we should be solidly in. I just don't want to get a 8/9 seed ... You know they'll put us against Kansas
 
#97
If we win out, we will be a 3 seed... I hope we finish strong and get a 6, but a 7/10 would be good for us too. as long as we beat Nebraska and northwestern we should be solidly in. I just don't want to get a 8/9 seed ... You know they'll put us against Kansas
I would love an 8/9 against SDSU. Prefer that to most 2nd rounds.
 
#98
I just can't reconcile..we beat Purdue badly twice, they are 14 and 13,. IU is their only significant road win...they beat uva and MSU at home on hot nights...we have the bad Miami loss and Missouri...who beat Auburn....in my mind, no way should Purdue be ahead of us
You can't reconcile because you're only looking at the stats and games that support your belief. Don't ignore the stats that make Purdue look better than us like...

-They beat MSU by 30, we lost to MSU by 1
-They beat Wisconsin by 20, we beat Wisconsin by 1
-They beat NW by 14, we beat NW by 4

The biggest takeaway is margin of victory does matter a lot in these rankings. For example, if we would have lost to Wisconsin by 1, lost to PSU by 1, and lost to Michigan by 1 our record would look very similar to Purdue's. But our NET ranking would be almost the same as it is now, despite our record looking much worse.
 
#99
I just can't reconcile..we beat Purdue badly twice, they are 14 and 13,. IU is their only significant road win...they beat uva and MSU at home on hot nights...we have the bad Miami loss and Missouri...who beat Auburn....in my mind, no way should Purdue be ahead of us
You can't reconcile because you're only looking at the stats and games that support your belief. Don't ignore the stats that make Purdue look better than us like...

-They beat MSU by 30, we lost to MSU by 1
-They beat Wisconsin by 20, we beat Wisconsin by 1
-They beat NW by 14, we beat NW by 4

The biggest takeaway is margin of victory does matter a lot in these rankings. For example, if we would have lost to Wisconsin by 1, lost to PSU by 1, and lost to Michigan by 1 our record would look very similar to Purdue's. But our NET ranking would be almost the same as it is now, despite our record looking much worse.


They are no longer ahead of us in most bracket i would not think where it counts and Joe L has them in the first four out now. Thank goodness the eye test and some common sense comes in too. Joe has us as a 8 seed now vs Florida. We should move up if we win the ones we are favored in which should be 5 of 6. I hope we beat OSU too i think we can Huge game today for both Michigan and Purdue in Lafayette today. I think Michigan is firmly in but i would like to see 11 B10 teams so i am pulling for Purdue.

http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology
 
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I want the highest seed we can get, of course, but a six seed seems doable and it might be the sweet spot for us. We'd get an 11-seed in the first round, then a fading three in the second, followed in the sweet sixteen by a seven that upset a two in the round of 32. Our elite eight opponent would be Arizona, of course, and Ayo's heroics would nail down his lottery pick in the NBA draft.

Or am I overthinking this just a little?
 
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