NET Rankings / Bracketology

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That's exactly my point. We literally moved 0 spots in the coaches poll for beating Penn State on the road. I didn't think we would jolt 7 spots but 3 or 4 would seem reasonable.
Agreed. I get why those losses in the past still haunt us in all the metrics based rankings, but AP/coaches polls are about what have you done for me lately. You would think that beating the then #9 ranked team on the road in the best conference would move you into the 20s. That said, I think this may be a blessing in disguise. If I was on this team, this would be great bulletin board material for tonight and the rest of the season, esp. OSU and Iowa. And, yeah, I know, good teams don't need bulletin board material, but it doesn't hurt in trying to make a statement.
 
       
In the case of Wisconsin they've played 3 more Q1 games, and just as @CheifIllini said they've won against higher ranked teams, and had bigger wins.

So far, I'm happy with where we are at in the rankings. We are about 50/50 on one possession games. Had we won @Maryland, vs MSU, and Miami and Mizz games then we'd be top 10 in NET, probably #5 or #6. Win those 4 games and we have a better resume than Duke and Louisville. We could've also lost @Mich, @PSU, @WI and we would probably be around #70 with a resume similar to St John's. Every game matters.

ILLINI (5-7) Q1
L (-21)
L (-9)
L (-1)
L (-1)
L (-20)
W (2)
W (6)
L (-7)
W (1)
L (-15)
W (17)
W (9)

WISCONSIN (7-8) Q1
W (2)
L (-12)
W (1)
W (4)
W (9)
L (-6)
L (-7)
L (-19)
W (13)
W (16)
L (-2)
L (-18)
L (-10)
L (-5)
W (20)
 
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Wayne County, IL
I agree with Coach Underwood on rankings, they're meaningless. Only there for media to discuss.
 
       
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the Front Range
In the case of Wisconsin they've played 3 more Q1 games, and just as @CheifIllini said they've won against higher ranked teams, and had bigger wins.

So far, I'm happy with where we are at in the rankings. We are about 50/50 on one possession games. Had we won @Maryland, vs MSU, and Miami and Mizz games then we'd be top 10 in NET, probably #5 or #6. Win those 4 games and we have a better resume than Duke and Louisville. We could've also lost @Mich, @PSU, @WI and we would probably be around #70 with a resume similar to St John's. Every game matters.

ILLINI (5-7) Q1
L (-21)
L (-9)
L (-1)
L (-1)
L (-20)
W (2)
W (6)
L (-7)
W (1)
L (-15)
W (17)
W (9)

WISCONSIN (7-8) Q1
W (2)
L (-12)
W (1)
W (4)
W (9)
L (-6)
L (-7)
L (-19)
W (13)
W (16)
L (-2)
L (-18)
L (-10)
L (-5)
W (20)
The beginning of the season was brutal. We just didn’t perform then and weren’t a good team. If I ignore big ten play, the preseason get like a big disappointment and net backs that up. On the plus side, this makes us very dangerous. No one will want to play us.
 
       
Forgottonia
That's exactly my point. We literally moved 0 spots in the coaches poll for beating Penn State on the road. I didn't think we would jolt 7 spots but 3 or 4 would seem reasonable.
We were down to 38 after the Rutgers game and gained 3 to 35 after PSU in the net. I still like the AP and coaches polls, but in reality the net is the one that really matters. I think the other 2 are maybe better indicators of how teams are playing recently.
 
       
I hope the platitudes I have to offer here are outshined at least a little by this insight: we are in the era of metrics and hard data when evaluating college basketball. Does anyone remember the "eye test?" It's been formalized away in how many points you allow and score per possession.

Now for the platitudes: bad losses haunt you in these metrics. Ditto for just getting by when you match up with bad teams. NET is not very useful for teams win by virtue of having a player who can take over the game. Ayo is such a player.
 
       
Larry Brown has IL as one of the teams that could make a surprise run to the Final Four.
 
       
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Article from ESPN (Feb. 20th) about B10 Teams chances to advance (mostly based on BPI / efficiency). Channeling a little Rodney Dangerfield - Let's continue to improve and PROVE them wrong!!

1582725877251.png
 
       
Danger Zone
In the case of Wisconsin they've played 3 more Q1 games, and just as @CheifIllini said they've won against higher ranked teams, and had bigger wins.

So far, I'm happy with where we are at in the rankings. We are about 50/50 on one possession games. Had we won @Maryland, vs MSU, and Miami and Mizz games then we'd be top 10 in NET, probably #5 or #6. Win those 4 games and we have a better resume than Duke and Louisville. We could've also lost @Mich, @PSU, @WI and we would probably be around #70 with a resume similar to St John's. Every game matters.

ILLINI (5-7) Q1
L (-21)
L (-9)
L (-1)
L (-1)
L (-20)
W (2)
W (6)
L (-7)
W (1)
L (-15)
W (17)
W (9)

WISCONSIN (7-8) Q1
W (2)
L (-12)
W (1)
W (4)
W (9)
L (-6)
L (-7)
L (-19)
W (13)
W (16)
L (-2)
L (-18)
L (-10)
L (-5)
W (20)

A nice objective view. Rutgers at 34 and Purdue at 38 in Net, we should be pulling for them to finish off strong hopefully get to 30 or below, which would give us two more Q1 wins. It seems unlikely for Purdue to make that much of a leap at this point the season, but seems possible for Rutgers (if only they could get a road win). Although, that would also give Wisconsin two more Q1 wins as well.
 
       
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Article from ESPN (Feb. 20th) about B10 Teams chances to advance (mostly based on BPI / efficiency). Channeling a little Rodney Dangerfield - Let's continue to improve and PROVE them wrong!!

View attachment 5756
Probably because we are looking at an 8 or 9 seed and Purdue is looking at a 12 or 11. Personally would choose 10, 11, 12, 13 seeds over being an 8 or 9. That does change a bit if the 1 seed is not Baylor or Kansas, really want to avoid playing those 2.
 
       
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Probably because we are looking at an 8 or 9 seed and Purdue is looking at a 12 or 11. Personally would choose 10, 11, 12, 13 seeds over being an 8 or 9. That does change a bit if the 1 seed is not Baylor or Kansas, really want to avoid playing those 2.

Give me SDSU please.
 
       
Probably because we are looking at an 8 or 9 seed and Purdue is looking at a 12 or 11. Personally would choose 10, 11, 12, 13 seeds over being an 8 or 9. That does change a bit if the 1 seed is not Baylor or Kansas, really want to avoid playing those 2.
I realize that is likely where we are sitting now. If we win all our remaining games or just lose once at OSU i think we should move up a seeb or two. Don't you guys feel if we finish strong and get to a 2 or 3 seed in the B10 that we will be seeded above an 8 seed? If we win out at OSU i think we will for sure and if we only have one loss at OSU i think we should move up in the seedings.
 
       
I realize that is likely where we are sitting now. If we win all our remaining games or just lose once at OSU i think we should move up a seeb or two. Don't you guys feel if we finish strong and get to a 2 or 3 seed in the B10 that we will be seeded above an 8 seed? If we win out at OSU i think we will for sure and if we only have one loss at OSU i think we should move up in the seedings.
A lot depends on what other teams do. Fact is, we have two dump losses, which is why we're in this bracketing situation. Let's not make it three.
 
       
I think we are better than the NET implies. We are not playing the same style as early in the year. BU has made changes since the non conference. If i were an opposing team i would not want to face us in the NCAA tournament. The Illini have only lost 6 B10 games. of those loses 4 came to the top two teams in the conference now and two of those by one point at the buzzer and a stupid back court foul. our only other B10 losses to teams other than Maryland and MSU are at Iowa and at Rutgers. Only 2 of the B10 teams other than Maryland and MSU have beaten us. Rutgers and Iowas are tough as nails at home.
We are playing very well on the road and since BU made this switch. I would not be shocked if we win out. I have faith that we will start to shoot it better and keep playing well on the glass and hopefully limit our TOs.
 
       
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Hot take: people are overrating the importance of the NET. It’s just an improved RPI - there to help the committee, to quantify some stuff and to perhaps be a tie breaker in some scenarios. If we get the 2-seed in the BTT (meaning we finish 3-1), avoid losing to NU and win one game in the BTT vs. that lower seed, I’ll bet we’re SOLIDLY in the 4-6 range. The committee is made up of human beings.
 
       
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Hot take: people are overrating the importance of the NET. It’s just an improved RPI - there to help the committee, to quantify some stuff and to perhaps be a tie breaker in some scenarios. If we get the 2-seed in the BTT (meaning we finish 3-1), avoid losing to NU and win one game in the BTT vs. that lower seed, I’ll bet we’re SOLIDLY in the 4-6 range. The committee is made up of human beings.
Lunardi is usually very accurate and has us as an 8 currently, in line with the NET. I do think winning 5 more games this season would move us up to at least the 6, but that would probably also be reflected on the NET too.
 
       
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I find it fascinating how the committee can choose most anything between seeds 5-8. Not sure this year there's that much more parity, but it's gotta be hard to tell major differences between a 5 seed and an 8 seed in most years. 2 or 3 more wins maybe? 1 or 2 more Q1 wins vs Q2?

Does the committee still take into account later played games (I think they nixed it)? Honestly isn't an awful metric for seeding, kinda like a tie breaker. Still, I think if we do go 4-2 the rest of the way we probably fall around the 6/7 line. Not sure 21 wins (Lindenwood doesn't count remember) can get us to a 5 seed. If we can go 5-2 we probably do get bumped to 5.
 
       
Lunardi is usually very accurate and has us as an 8 currently, in line with the NET. I do think winning 5 more games this season would move us up to at least the 6, but that would probably also be reflected on the NET too.

For sure - Lunardi does it as if the Tournament started today. Remember in 2013 when he had us as a 2-seed in early January? I think the committee will try not to punish higher seeds with Big Ten matchups TOO much, as well. If we are “really” an 8 or 9, I could see us being bumped to a 7 and replaced with some Pac-12 team to not screw over someone like SDSU, for example. Knock on wood, but I think the committee will consider the strength of our conference.
 
       
In the case of Wisconsin they've played 3 more Q1 games, and just as @CheifIllini said they've won against higher ranked teams, and had bigger wins.

So far, I'm happy with where we are at in the rankings. We are about 50/50 on one possession games. Had we won @Maryland, vs MSU, and Miami and Mizz games then we'd be top 10 in NET, probably #5 or #6. Win those 4 games and we have a better resume than Duke and Louisville. We could've also lost @Mich, @PSU, @WI and we would probably be around #70 with a resume similar to St John's. Every game matters.

ILLINI (5-7) Q1
L (-21)
L (-9)
L (-1)
L (-1)
L (-20)
W (2)
W (6)
L (-7)
W (1)
L (-15)
W (17)
W (9)

WISCONSIN (7-8) Q1
W (2)
L (-12)
W (1)
W (4)
W (9)
L (-6)
L (-7)
L (-19)
W (13)
W (16)
L (-2)
L (-18)
L (-10)
L (-5)
W (20)

Wisconsin has bigger wins? OK, they beat MSU and Maryland at home, also Rutgers at home, PSU and OSU on the road, as well as Nebraska, We won at PSU, Michigan, Purdue and won in Badgerville, also beat Michigan and Rutgers at home....not much difference. They also have bad losses too, Richmond and N. Mexico. They have one more quality home win and we have one more quality road win....over them! So the tiebreaker is our one extra road win over them.
 
       
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Wisconsin has bigger wins? OK, they beat MSU and Maryland at home, also Rutgers at home, PSU and OSU on the road, as well as Nebraska, We won at PSU, Michigan, Purdue and won in Badgerville, also beat Michigan and Rutgers at home....not much difference. They also have bad losses too, Richmond and N. Mexico. They have one more quality home win and we have one more quality road win....over them! So the tiebreaker is our one extra road win over them.
Richmond is not a bad loss.
 
       
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Here's the NCAA tourney seeds compared to the NET rankings of last year's NCAA Tournament teams.

(Skipped everything below the 11 seeds as they were all automatic qualifiers)

* = Automatic qualifier

2019 NCAA Tournament

Seed___NET___Team
1______1_____Virginia
1______2_____Gonzaga
1______3_____Duke*
1______7_____North Carolina

2______5_____Tennessee
2______6_____Kentucky
2______8_____Michigan State*
2______9_____Michigan

3______4_____Houston
3______10____Texas Tech
3______12____Purdue
3______14____LSU

4______11____Virginia Tech
4______16____Florida State
4______20____Kansas
4______24____Kansas State

5______17____Wisconsin
5______18____Auburn*
5______19____Mississippi State
5______28____Marquette

6______15____Buffalo*
6______21____Iowa State*
6______26____Villanova*
6______27____Maryland

7______13____Wofford*
7______22____Louisville
7______23____Nevada
7______25____Cincinnati*

8______29____Utah State*
8______34____VCU
8______36____Ole Miss
8______42____Syracuse

9______30____UCF
9______37____Oklahoma
9______39____Baylor
9______45____Washington

10_____31____Florida
10_____43____Iowa
10_____57____Seton Hall
10_____61____Minnesota

11_____32____Saint Mary's*
11_____47____Belmont (Last 4 In)
11_____55____Ohio State
11_____56____Temple (Last 4 In)
11_____63____Arizona State (Last 4 In)
11_____73____St. John's (Last 4 In)


First 4 Out-

60 UNC Greensboro
59 Alabama
52 TCU
54 Indiana

 
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If we get the 2-seed in the BTT (meaning we finish 3-1), avoid losing to NU and win one game in the BTT vs. that lower seed, I’ll bet we’re SOLIDLY in the 4-6 range. The committee is made up of human beings.

I’d rather we win the BTT and get a 2 seed.
 
       
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Here's the NCAA tourney seeds compared to the NET rankings of last year's NCAA Tournament teams.

(Skipped everything below the 11 seeds as they were all automatic qualifiers)

* = Automatic qualifier
85% of the top 46 teams in NET got bids, but seeding deviated heavily from where the NET value predicted. So, I think this helps support the idea that NET is a good predictor of who gets in, but not where they're seeded. That's my take at least.

11 seeds, 46 spots: 39 of the top 46 teams in NET were selected.

Top 46 teams missing bid:
33 NC state (3-9 Q1, but played 16 games vs Q3/4; #343 non-con SOS)
35 Clemson (1-10 Q1)
38 Texas (16-16 overall record; 5-10 Q1, #5 SOS, #18 non-con SOS)
40 New Mexico State (0-1 Q1, 3-1 Q2)
41 Furman (22-7 overall record, but only 6-7 vs Q1-3)
44 Murray State (27-4 overall record, but only 2-4 vs Q1-2)
46 Memphis (2-9 Q1, 2-3 Q2)

Team making it instead:
47 Belmont
55 Ohio State
56 Temple
57 Seton Hall
61 Minnesota
63 Arizona State
73 St Johns

https://extra.ncaa.org/solutions/rpi/Stats Library/2019 Selections Team Sheets.pdf
 
       
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