NET Rankings / Bracketology

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Charleston
85% of the top 46 teams in NET got bids, but seeding deviated heavily from where the NET value predicted. So, I think this helps support the idea that NET is a good predictor of who gets in, but not where they're seeded. That's my take at least.

11 seeds, 46 spots: 39 of the top 46 teams in NET were selected.

Top 46 teams missing bid:
33 NC state (3-9 Q1, but played 16 games vs Q3/4; #343 non-con SOS)
35 Clemson (1-10 Q1)
38 Texas (16-16 overall record; 5-10 Q1, #5 SOS, #18 non-con SOS)
40 New Mexico State (0-1 Q1, 3-1 Q2)
41 Furman (22-7 overall record, but only 6-7 vs Q1-3)
44 Murray State (27-4 overall record, but only 2-4 vs Q1-2)
46 Memphis (2-9 Q1, 2-3 Q2)

Team making it instead:
47 Belmont
55 Ohio State
56 Temple
57 Seton Hall
61 Minnesota
63 Arizona State
73 St Johns

https://extra.ncaa.org/solutions/rpi/Stats Library/2019 Selections Team Sheets.pdf
Murray State missing out is rough. 27-4.
 
Likes: illinifan4249
M tipping over
Pdx
85% of the top 46 teams in NET got bids, but seeding deviated heavily from where the NET value predicted. So, I think this helps support the idea that NET is a good predictor of who gets in, but not where they're seeded. That's my take at least.

11 seeds, 46 spots: 39 of the top 46 teams in NET were selected.

Top 46 teams missing bid:
33 NC state (3-9 Q1, but played 16 games vs Q3/4; #343 non-con SOS)
35 Clemson (1-10 Q1)
38 Texas (16-16 overall record; 5-10 Q1, #5 SOS, #18 non-con SOS)
40 New Mexico State (0-1 Q1, 3-1 Q2)
41 Furman (22-7 overall record, but only 6-7 vs Q1-3)
44 Murray State (27-4 overall record, but only 2-4 vs Q1-2)
46 Memphis (2-9 Q1, 2-3 Q2)

Team making it instead:
47 Belmont
55 Ohio State
56 Temple
57 Seton Hall
61 Minnesota
63 Arizona State
73 St Johns

https://extra.ncaa.org/solutions/rpi/Stats Library/2019 Selections Team Sheets.pdf
If you take the average NET at each seed and do a spearman correlation between the two, you'll still see a high correlation between seed and NET.
 
Likes: illinifan4249
I hope Scott Nagy and John Groce's teams both make it. Scott has done a great job coaching wherever he has been.

I would not be shocked if we work our way up the bracket if we played one of those teams. I dont want Kansas which i think is what will happen if we are an 8 seed. They do that stuff on purpose. I dont care what they say!
 
Likes: jmilt7
If you take the average NET at each seed and do a spearman correlation between the two, you'll still see a high correlation between seed and NET.
Fair enough, I don't disagree with you, but I think its clear that the better teams will generally have a higher NET and be seeded higher. I think using last year as an example though shows that the committee prioritizes other factors above NET to determine seeding.

Referencing the table 22% of teams received the seed that NET predicted, and 59% were within +/- 1 of what NET predicted. The other 40% deviated by 2 or more seeds.

Therefore, I think its reasonable to speculate that with a 35 NET ranking we project as an 8-10 seed, but given strength of the conference a 6 seed is also a reasonable projection.

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Likes: Epsilon
I want no part of Kansas until the final. I understand the Auburn angle, but no thanks on Kansas.

Unfortunately I think the Self aspect may get us on the 8 line even if we deserve to be higher. Hopefully the committee moved past it.
As an Illini fan I feel like winning these types of revenge matches aren't our forte (aside from Arizona E8).
 
M tipping over
Pdx
I want no part of Kansas until the final. I understand the Auburn angle, but no thanks on Kansas.

Unfortunately I think the Self aspect may get us on the 8 line even if we deserve to be higher. Hopefully the committee moved past it.
I'm really hoping not to get an 8 or 9 seed; much tougher track to sweet 16 in any bracket.
 
New York
I think we could still go anywhere from a 3 or 4 seed (win out and win BTT) down to an 11 (lose out, lose first game in BTT). Pretty crazy with 3 games left in the regular season.
 
Waukegan
Likes: arude8
Unfortunately, our lack of quality non-conference wins is gonna cap our tourney seed ceiling. But maybe we could get a 5 or 6 seed if we finish the season on a run? We'll see.
 
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the Front Range
SMH 🤦🏼‍♂️, these guys haven’t watched us. If they focus on our shooting they are totally undervaluing our team. Especially Lunardi, they think offense is everything which is why they constantly underserved the big ten. defense changes games. The B1G constantly outperforms their ranks especially the worse seeded teams. If ol’ Joe is right, we have a good chance of knocking someone off who overlooks us due to seed.

If that does happen, I hope it’s Kansas.
 
From the list of seedings last year, a 38 NET puts the Illini squarely on the 8 line. Last year the highest NET for a 7 seed was 25 (Cincinnati) and highest for a 6 seed was 27 (Maryland). So to have a chance at a 6 seed Illini definitely have to win 3 remaining I think. Might sneak up to a 7 seed if they only go 2-1 as long as the loss isn't to Indiana. Non-con schedule/record will hurt, but maybe the road conference wins will do enough to offset along with the recency factor.
 
Realistically, due to the non-conference, a 6 seed is probably the best the Illini can do. The Illini nation needs to realize this and not freak out about it. The non con was terrible. Win out (final 3 regular season), its a 6 most likely. 2/3 we could get a 7 seed. It appears tight between 7/8 and more than likely our seed could bump up or down to avoid a Big Ten opponent as well. Either way, our record is our record and the first half of the year counts. Hoping for a 6 seed...
 
The Villages, FL
Unfortunately, our lack of quality non-conference wins is gonna cap our tourney seed ceiling. But maybe we could get a 5 or 6 seed if we finish the season on a run? We'll see.
If we run the table and win at least one in the BTT, we're a four seed. You can't finish 2d in the Big Ten and go any lower, in my opinion.
 
For those of you complaining about the NET rankings, our current RPI is 51. Not even on page 1. Per real time RPI. Thankfully that is no longer the recommended tool.

36 in NET. 29 in kenpom.

2nd #8 seed per Bracket project matrix, which compiles a bunch of the other rankings. Best we have is a 6 seed, Ruckles.

Aa couple have us out.

KPI has us at #50, with 7 Pac 12 teams rated higher. 8 slots behind IU and 9th in the B10. This is likely the worst.

Most are 7/8/9.

Going to the Iowa game, assuming US air travel is not shut down in the next week.

GO ILLINI!
 
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