The Big 12’s grant of rights agreement runs through June of 2025. So, just one football season past the expiration of the SEC’s deal with CBS.
Those grant of rights deals are less painful as time passes. Only one football season left wouldn’t be enough to stop the SEC from gobbling up - for example - Texas and Oklahoma if a new television contract made it worthwhile.
So that's fair, I don't disagree that near the expiration might work, I would argue that was the "likely to happen..." in my post.
I would still bet, any realignment would be set to take effect in 2025, at the end of the day money is the driver & I don't expect either side wants to leave a year early & give up the media money vs. hanging around another year and collecting the paycheck. ($ > dealing with unhappy jilted conference foes)
Regardless, to the scope of the original post, there is/was little to no chance of anything happening now & this new SEC contract isn't waiting on more conference alignment. I was too lazy to look up timing for Grant of Rights, but this contract timing suggests to me that it is the bridge to the next potential realignment, if that is still the flavor in 2024/25 timeline.