Our Next 13 Games

#1      

Second and Chalmers

S
Second and Chalmers
By National S&P Ranking (an advanced stat ranking which will stand in for a KenPom-type thing for our purposes)

@Rutgers - 111th

Purdue - 46th

@Wisconsin - 11th

@Maryland - 59th

Minnesota - 65th

@Nebraska - 73rd

Iowa - 26th

@Northwestern - 58th

Akron - 101st

@UConn - 130th

Eastern Michigan - 72nd

Nebraska - 73rd

@Minnesota - 65th


This is it. This is the period in which Lovie makes the turn. That next game is the Michigan home game Robert from Illiniboard has been going on about since Lovie was hired.

I would say 7-8 wins ought to be the expectation level for this stretch. That's what the arrow pointing upward looks like.
 
#2      

TheGMan

TheGMan
TheGMan
Second and Chalmers said:
By National S&P Ranking (an advanced stat ranking which will stand in for a KenPom-type thing for our purposes)

@Rutgers - 111th

Purdue - 46th

@Wisconsin - 11th

@Maryland - 59th

Minnesota - 65th

@Nebraska - 73rd

Iowa - 26th

@Northwestern - 58th

Akron - 101st

@UConn - 130th

Eastern Michigan - 72nd

Nebraska - 73rd

@Minnesota - 65th


This is it. This is the period in which Lovie makes the turn. That next game is the Michigan home game Robert from Illiniboard has been going on about since Lovie was hired.

I would say 7-8 wins ought to be the expectation level for this stretch. That's what the arrow pointing upward looks like.
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What is our ranking?
 
#5      

Second and Chalmers

S
Second and Chalmers
the national said:
Yikes! I hope that improves after we beat Rutgers and Purdue
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Much like KenPom, improvement is about performing better than expectations.

The expectation level reflected by that ranking would be that we squeak by this week and then lose out the rest of the season, with several blowouts.

We need to be better than that.

If we're still in the triple digits by the end of this stretch, the Lovie era is all over but the shouting.
 
#8      

Deleted member 11196

D
Guest
Deleted member 11196
Second and Chalmers said:
Much like KenPom, improvement is about performing better than expectations.

The expectation level reflected by that ranking would be that we squeak by this week and then lose out the rest of the season, with several blowouts.

We need to be better than that.

If we're still in the triple digits by the end of this stretch, the Lovie era is all over but the shouting.
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Such a sad commentary, and definitely NOT a recipe for long term success..... IMHO !
 
#9      

ChiefIllini

C
ChiefIllini
Second and Chalmers said:
If we're still in the triple digits by the end of this stretch, the Lovie era is all over but the shouting.
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Would really like to disagree with this point, but really no way to spin that positively. Hard to imagine a situation where he isn't fired if we dont win anymore games (or if its just RU) and next year we dont win more than 4. I want to believe so bad he can do it, but thats a bleak future, no spin can save it.

Lots of football left before that point. Plenty of reason to be optimistic about our offense. Hope the defense can start showing signs of life at some point. There are few coaches I would want more to build a defense than Lovie. Question might be if our health and talent is up to snuff. If there's anything I'm hanging my hat on, its the suspended players coming back and injecting some life into the secondary and receiving corps, then getting Williams and Beason next year.
 
#10      

Genesis

G
Genesis
Purdue and Wisky will beat us, and MD and Neb are on the road so I think we lose all four. However, 2 more wins for this season and the first 4 or 5 next season is a reasonable expectation. I'll go with six and be very happy with 7. Thanks for looking at the big picture.
 
#11      

Second and Chalmers

S
Second and Chalmers
ChiefIllini said:
Would really like to disagree with this point, but really no way to spin that positively. Hard to imagine a situation where he isn't fired if we dont win anymore games (or if its just RU) and next year we dont win more than 4. I want to believe so bad he can do it, but thats a bleak future, no spin can save it.
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If you're an optimist about Lovie, and I am, there is absolutely no reason to think a team as loaded with handpicked players and experience as next year's will be, facing as weak a schedule as they will, won't be a bowl team easily.

He might not get fired if they're 4-8 next year, but it's pretty much done at that point. One imagines us hobbling to 6-6 in 2020 against an easier-still schedule, and then graduating the core of our team and tumbling into the abyss again.

But I see it the other way around. I think we will improve, snag some wins down the stretch, and then have a huge offseason and be a program barely recognizable from the football we've watched so far in the beginning of next season.
 
#12      

ChiefIllini

C
ChiefIllini
Second and Chalmers said:
If you're an optimist about Lovie, and I am, there is absolutely no reason to think a team as loaded with handpicked players and experience as next year's will be, facing as weak a schedule as they will, won't be a bowl team easily.

He might not get fired if they're 4-8 next year, but it's pretty much done at that point. One imagines us hobbling to 6-6 in 2020 against an easier-still schedule, and then graduating the core of our team and tumbling into the abyss again.

But I see it the other way around. I think we will improve, snag some wins down the stretch, and then have a huge offseason and be a program barely recognizable from the football we've watched so far in the beginning of next season.
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The biggest hurdle for this team is the improvement of the D line. Obviously an extreme example, but OSU made Sanders look pedestrian. He touched the ball against us and fell forward for 10 yards every time. You don't win many B1G games not having a top notch run defense. My hope is we can stack the box more with our complete secondary back and hide some of the obvious problems we have on the d line this year. Hope most of these guys improve (mainly Avery), get healthy, and play way above this years level, then I can see this team being transformed.
 
#13      

IllinoisFanAtFSU

I
IllinoisFanAtFSU
Looking at that next 13 games, I am inclined to pick three more wins this season (Rutgers plus two of Purdue, Minnesota, Nebraska, Northwestern), and then winning five straight to start next season. 5-7 this year would be more than acceptable, and a 5-0 start to 2019 would be phenomenal.

Beat both Rutgers and Purdue and my take will shift from semi-optimistic about this year/pumped about next year to bowl game this year, borderline ranked team for all of next year.
 
#14      

Deleted member 29907

D
Guest
Deleted member 29907
Genesis said:
Purdue and Wisky will beat us, and MD and Neb are on the road so I think we lose all four. However, 2 more wins for this season and the first 4 or 5 next season is a reasonable expectation. I'll go with six and be very happy with 7. Thanks for looking at the big picture.
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Nebraska does not look good at all - I am hoping we can pull that one off. They had D players celebrating 2 yd gain tackles on 2nd down like they just stuffed a 4th and 1. I seriously think we could stay pretty vanilla on them and just wait out their mistakes on D.
 
#16      

champaignchris

C
champaignchris
An average P5 team should win 10 or 11 games against that schedule. A pretty legitimately bad P5 team can win 6 against that schedule.

So, the Illini don't even have to be an average P5 team for us to come out of this stretch feeling pretty good about the direction of the Illini football program.

If they can get 3 more wins this season and start 4-1 next season, that would show a ton of progress without requiring anything particularly miraculous to happen.
 
#18      

thunderwear

thunderwear
thunderwear
Second and Chalmers said:
That's a good way to sum it up
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I appreciate this post and I think that what is proposed is very doable (I actually think we will eclipse those expectations). But at the end of the day. People aren't looking at a rolling 13 game average. Rather, people will assess this season once all of the smoke has cleared. If we end with 3 wins, but have a lot more injuries, I'm not sure what else we could have done about it. And, if we qualify for a bowl this season, what we do next season, will be less important depending on injuries and recruiting. So far, I think most people would say they see progress. Our win total could be higher, but it is clear that we are progressing. Commentators are noticing, boosters are noticing, and the team is noticing. I would be surprised if we don't have any more setbacks between the next 13 games, but as long as we continue to improve and recruit more depth, I think everything will be ok.
 
#19      

bobbob

B
bobbob
Looking at that list, only for Wisconsin do I say "yeah, we're losing that".

We'll probably lose one or two we shouldn't, but hopefully balance that out by stealing one or two wins. Just saying, I'd like to beat Iowa.
 
#20      

Second and Chalmers

S
Second and Chalmers
bobbob said:
Looking at that list, only for Wisconsin do I say "yeah, we're losing that".

We'll probably lose one or two we shouldn't, but hopefully balance that out by stealing one or two wins. Just saying, I'd like to beat Iowa.
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I know a "Kirk Ferentz wins 11 games with a completely anonymous, average team" season when I see one.
 
#21      

mhuml32

mhuml32
Cincinnati, OH
mhuml32
Seems like UCONN is the first non-conference opponent that Illinois is catching at the right time since the Civil War (with the obvious caveat of not know how things will change for them next year).
 
#22      

LHIllinis

L
LHIllinis
If one looks at who they are recruiting hard for 2019 class it is defense and players to throw the ball too. They will not get all the DL they are after, but if they can get two of the top four, that will be pretty good. Through in one of the Cali ones as a surprise and that will be very good. Need another ILB and they are after a couple. Mucho help at CB coming in next year as well. Guys that should be able to cover. Like it or not, four wins shows improvement and that looks more than doable assuming injuries do not take a toll. Would like to see us one day get a high three star or better safety or two, but, doesn't seem to be happening anytime soon. So, let's hope they find more like Williams. But, with what they have and have coming in, defense should see at least some talented depth that will eventually start and that will help them win enough games for a bowl game next year. Add some needed play makers and next year will be nice. Hopeful they can find four more wins this year, but two is needed as every win they get helps in recruiting as it appears there are some very nice players waiting to see what we do.
 
#23      

ugottabjoshinme

ugottabjoshinme
ugottabjoshinme
Great thread. Really shows the big picture of what needs to happen for this thing to turn around in the way that I also think it's trending