Penn State 72, Illinois 56 POSTGAME

I hear lots of shouts for Griffin and Jones to get more playing time or be inserted into the starting lineup. Let's remember that if players are not doing what they need to do from a work ethic standpoint as well as abiding by team and University rules, overlooking that and playing them anyway can not just kill your locker room, it can lead to a loss of all credibility as a coach. I think the coaching staff might know these players a little bit better than we do and they have very good reasons for allocating minutes the way they have been doing.
Breaking rules is different beast then getting DNP'ed. If they broke rules, they wouldn't have even suited up.

While I agree the other points are true, and you dont want a coach losing a locker room, they needed to get tick outside garbage time. And they've needed to get more ever since this slide after the 5 in 6 we had. Griffin had been chucking recently, I could see some minutes being taken off, but there's no reason they shouldn't have at least got 5 minutes in a game like this. Development isn't more important then winning, regardless of record, but at some point you've gotta look at why we are winning and understand that it's probably partially on the players we have.
 
Likes: greyghost70
As both a fan and former coach, I am always trying to analyze a team to figure out what is working and what is not. In watching the rotations these last few games, I got curious about a certain stat so I had to run some numbers. Here are our team leaders this season in points per minutes played:

Georgi .465
Trent .459
Ayo .452
Andres .380
Tevian .372
Alan .368
Samba .329
Kipper .325
Aaron .302
Adonis .291
Damonte .167
Drew .133
Samson .087
Tyler .050
Zach .000

The last time I checked, in order to win a game you have to outscore the other team. At any given position, unless two players are significantly different in stopping the players on the other team from scoring, the one who is the most offensively productive should be playing. I know I'm not at practice every day, but from what I see on gameday I don't believe any of our players are exceptionally talented defenders.

Think about that and the minutes we've seen players getting during this end-of-the-season skid.:unsure:
There's more to offense than scoring points. There is a stat called Offensive Rating which takes into consideration things like points, assists, turnovers, and possessions used up. Here's the teams for this year, from http://www.barttorvik.com/#

Aaron Jordan 114.1
Tevian Jones 110.1
Da'Monte Williams 105.1
Trent Frazier 104.5
Andres Feliz 103.7
Ayo Dosunmu 103.5
Kipper Nichols 99
Giorgi Bezhanishvili 98.7
Alan Griffin 87.8
Samba Kane 87.3
Adonis De La Rosa 84.7
Tyler Underwood 68.4
Samson Oladimeji 65.2
Drew Cayce 40.8
Zach Griffith 22.9

When you take into consideration everything involved in an offense, Williams is one of our best offensive players. That is why he plays - because the coaching staff doesn't just look at points score and pretend that is the entire story.

The issue with Williams' game is his usage, the rate of possessions finished up by his actions. It is by far the lowest on the team. It is actually lower than noted blackhole Jalen Tate's was two years ago. That is not necessarily a bad thing. Williams is lower than Tate because Williams doesn't use up possessions turning the ball over while Tate's TO% was very high. Williams will often look to make the pass that leads to the pass that leads to the bucket. On one hand, that is selfless basketball and is good. On the other, if you have a shot you need to take the shot because a shot in hand is worth two in the bush.

Williams is a good offensive player who is not aggressive enough. He improved his 3 point shooting from last year and got a little more aggressive. I think that trend will continue. Coupled with his excellent defense, I think he will fill AJ's role and then some next year.
 
Does anyone have an opinion on BU having the team in the gym practicing at 6:50 am ET before a noon game? That is 5:50 am CT and with daylight savings it’s actually 4:50 am.

I’m starting to think this team is just worn out. Especially Trent. He seems to not be able to create any space to get a good look. Something he’s usually very good at.
I was fine with it. Energy carry over from practice to game has been an issue according to BU for most of the year. Trying something new is how you fix that - you don't just keep the same schedule and wonder why it constantly doesn't work.

Getting the guys up early to get the blood flowing before an early game makes sense on the face. You worry about a sluggish start in the early games because you don't have the normal day to get blood flowing.
 
Looking at the stat lines, I worry why we shied away from 3 point attempts in the second half. Were 5-10 for the game with Trent making 1 of 1. PSU jacked up 29, with Reaves going 6 of 10 and rest of team a miserable 3 of 19. We seem to listen to all those misguided announcers that say no need to jack up 3's with this much time left in the game (down by 13, minute to go, don't turn off game yet...there's plenty of commercials still to watch).

Unrelated: Our orange has always looked too red to me in the BTT logo. Happy to see that the top half of the pairings pits off all the red against each other.
 
I hear lots of shouts for Griffin and Jones to get more playing time or be inserted into the starting lineup. Let's remember that if players are not doing what they need to do from a work ethic standpoint as well as abiding by team and University rules, overlooking that and playing them anyway can not just kill your locker room, it can lead to a loss of all credibility as a coach. I think the coaching staff might know these players a little bit better than we do and they have very good reasons for allocating minutes the way they have been doing.
For the life of me, I cannot understand why we are playing 4 guards and one forward. We have two bigs and a medium (Nichols) sitting on the bench. There is no way the Illini can have a winning record in the Big Ten with this tiny lineup. We are last in the league and rebounding and in opponents' field goal percentage. Easy baskets, putbacks, and lots of other possessions for the other team with this size differential. Am I the only one who sees this glaring problem???
 
There's more to offense than scoring points. There is a stat called Offensive Rating which takes into consideration things like points, assists, turnovers, and possessions used up. Here's the teams for this year, from http://www.barttorvik.com/#

Aaron Jordan 114.1
Tevian Jones 110.1
Da'Monte Williams 105.1
Trent Frazier 104.5
Andres Feliz 103.7
Ayo Dosunmu 103.5
Kipper Nichols 99
Giorgi Bezhanishvili 98.7
Alan Griffin 87.8
Samba Kane 87.3
Adonis De La Rosa 84.7
Tyler Underwood 68.4
Samson Oladimeji 65.2
Drew Cayce 40.8
Zach Griffith 22.9

When you take into consideration everything involved in an offense, Williams is one of our best offensive players. That is why he plays - because the coaching staff doesn't just look at points score and pretend that is the entire story.

The issue with Williams' game is his usage, the rate of possessions finished up by his actions. It is by far the lowest on the team. It is actually lower than noted blackhole Jalen Tate's was two years ago. That is not necessarily a bad thing. Williams is lower than Tate because Williams doesn't use up possessions turning the ball over while Tate's TO% was very high. Williams will often look to make the pass that leads to the pass that leads to the bucket. On one hand, that is selfless basketball and is good. On the other, if you have a shot you need to take the shot because a shot in hand is worth two in the bush.

Williams is a good offensive player who is not aggressive enough. He improved his 3 point shooting from last year and got a little more aggressive. I think that trend will continue. Coupled with his excellent defense, I think he will fill AJ's role and then some next year.​
. This just shows stats do not tell the whole story. How do you take into account the other 4 guys are more closely guarded because Damonte is not a threat. Playing 4 on 5 on offense will get you beat just like playing 4 guards on defense.​
 
Let's face it, you can't win in the Big Ten playing 4 guards and a forward. Last in the league in rebounding and opponents' field goal percentage. So obvious. Play a bigger lineup. Recruit a bigger lineup. Get some size underneath.
 
Likes: joed
I wouldn’t be surprised to see Kane transfer he can’t get off of the bench. I could never understand why he didn’t get some time against Harms when we had no answer for him. At least his height may have caused him some problems
Obvious size problem. Two bigs on the bench all season. I can easily see this from my living room. Playing four guards will get you to the bottom sector of the league.
 
Obvious size problem. Two bigs on the bench all season. I can easily see this from my living room. Playing four guards will get you to the bottom sector of the league.
While totally accurate, I think it's old news. We don't have a single power forward on the roster(besides Higgs) nor a single rim protector (Kane's in the doghouse). That will spell problems. Even guys like Trent, Dre and Damonte are on the smaller side. Let's cross our fingers these transfer hints from our insiders come to fruition, because that will give this team a much different look.
 
. This just shows stats do not tell the whole story. How do you take into account the other 4 guys are more closely guarded because Damonte is not a threat. Playing 4 on 5 on offense will get you beat just like playing 4 guards on defense.​
His Box Offensive +/- is sixth on the team. I see no support for that theory. If defenses sagged off him, you would expect him to have a low assist rate and a high turnover rate (like Tate did), as that would let them camp out in the passing lanes while he had the ball. That didn't happen. Because defenses still played him.

There is no perfect stat, but every stat that attempts to take into consideration overall offensive production seems to say that Williams is a decent offensive player.
 
Likes: IlliniSloth
His Box Offensive +/- is sixth on the team. I see no support for that theory. If defenses sagged off him, you would expect him to have a low assist rate and a high turnover rate (like Tate did), as that would let them camp out in the passing lanes while he had the ball. That didn't happen. Because defenses still played him.

There is no perfect stat, but every stat that attempts to take into consideration overall offensive production seems to say that Williams is a decent offensive player.
Your previously submiited Bartovik link has a pretty extensive stat evaluation of all Big Ten players. Williams is ranked #83 out of 87 total BIG players. Pretty interesting list.

http://barttorvik.com/playerstat.php?link=y&minusage=0&cvalue=B10&year=2019&top=353&start=20181101&end=20190501
 
His Box Offensive +/- is sixth on the team. I see no support for that theory. If defenses sagged off him, you would expect him to have a low assist rate and a high turnover rate (like Tate did), as that would let them camp out in the passing lanes while he had the ball. That didn't happen. Because defenses still played him.

There is no perfect stat, but every stat that attempts to take into consideration overall offensive production seems to say that Williams is a decent offensive player.
Not based on games I watched. He tries..but if he misses a shot he goes into a shell....he runs the plays, rebounds, and plays defense. Would be hard pressed to play more than 10 minutes a game for any other team but northwestern imho.
 
Your previously submiited Bartovik link has a pretty extensive stat evaluation of all Big Ten players. Williams is ranked #83 out of 87 total BIG players. Pretty interesting list.

http://barttorvik.com/playerstat.php?link=y&minusage=0&cvalue=B10&year=2019&top=353&start=20181101&end=20190501
First, unrelated, I am surprised only 87 B1G players play 40% or more minutes.

I bumped it down to 30% (~12 minutes/game) and switched it to conference only to level out the field a bit. He came in 84/98 then. When you check offensive rate (the stat I was referring to before), he's 53rd.

That default stat is not one that I am a big fan of, you can read about it here: https://www.bigtengeeks.com/new-stat-porpagatu/
Basically they came up with a decent attempt to adjust offensive rating to a replacement score. But it failed for guys with extreme high or low usage rates (and Williams usage rate was 97th out of those 98). So instead of going back to the board and figuring out why it gets screwy, they just started to blindly adjust it based on usage rate. I don't think that is a good statistacal analysis, and that is why the stat hasn't really taken off.
Offensive rating, on the other hand, is commonly used and you can find a version of it on most stat sites.

I still look at his offensive rate and his usage and see an average B1G player who needs to get more aggressive.
 
New York
First, unrelated, I am surprised only 87 B1G players play 40% or more minutes.

I bumped it down to 30% (~12 minutes/game) and switched it to conference only to level out the field a bit. He came in 84/98 then. When you check offensive rate (the stat I was referring to before), he's 53rd.

That default stat is not one that I am a big fan of, you can read about it here: https://www.bigtengeeks.com/new-stat-porpagatu/
Basically they came up with a decent attempt to adjust offensive rating to a replacement score. But it failed for guys with extreme high or low usage rates (and Williams usage rate was 97th out of those 98). So instead of going back to the board and figuring out why it gets screwy, they just started to blindly adjust it based on usage rate. I don't think that is a good statistacal analysis, and that is why the stat hasn't really taken off.
Offensive rating, on the other hand, is commonly used and you can find a version of it on most stat sites.

I still look at his offensive rate and his usage and see an average B1G player who needs to get more aggressive.
Damonte is fine to good in all aspects except scoring. Overall, he’s valuable, especially given the state of our roster. His scoring is a disaster. Like Jaylon Tate he needs to be a more credible threat to keep defenses honest and lower the pressure on our other guys. His stroke doesn’t look horrible but for whatever reason he’s like a 17% 3 point shooter. He doesn’t even need to hit 3s. If he could develop a little midrange runner that would really help.
 
As both a fan and former coach, I am always trying to analyze a team to figure out what is working and what is not. In watching the rotations these last few games, I got curious about a certain stat so I had to run some numbers. Here are our team leaders this season in points per minutes played:

Georgi .465
Trent .459
Ayo .452
Andres .380
Tevian .372
Alan .368
Samba .329
Kipper .325
Aaron .302
Adonis .291
Damonte .167
Drew .133
Samson .087
Tyler .050
Zach .000

The last time I checked, in order to win a game you have to outscore the other team. At any given position, unless two players are significantly different in stopping the players on the other team from scoring, the one who is the most offensively productive should be playing. I know I'm not at practice every day, but from what I see on gameday I don't believe any of our players are exceptionally talented defenders.

Think about that and the minutes we've seen players getting during this end-of-the-season skid.:unsure:
This is interesting. Outside of moving AJ up to 5 or 6 on the list, that is pretty much the order I would have played guys, especially once we got about halfway through the conference.
 
Damonte is fine to good in all aspects except scoring. Overall, he’s valuable, especially given the state of our roster. His scoring is a disaster. Like Jaylon Tate he needs to be a more credible threat to keep defenses honest and lower the pressure on our other guys. His stroke doesn’t look horrible but for whatever reason he’s like a 17% 3 point shooter. He doesn’t even need to hit 3s. If he could develop a little midrange runner that would really help.
He shot 32% from 3 this year; a decent enough rate but he didn't shoot them often (not even 40 attempts).
 
First, unrelated, I am surprised only 87 B1G players play 40% or more minutes.

I bumped it down to 30% (~12 minutes/game) and switched it to conference only to level out the field a bit. He came in 84/98 then. When you check offensive rate (the stat I was referring to before), he's 53rd.

That default stat is not one that I am a big fan of, you can read about it here: https://www.bigtengeeks.com/new-stat-porpagatu/
Basically they came up with a decent attempt to adjust offensive rating to a replacement score. But it failed for guys with extreme high or low usage rates (and Williams usage rate was 97th out of those 98). So instead of going back to the board and figuring out why it gets screwy, they just started to blindly adjust it based on usage rate. I don't think that is a good statistacal analysis, and that is why the stat hasn't really taken off.
Offensive rating, on the other hand, is commonly used and you can find a version of it on most stat sites.

I still look at his offensive rate and his usage and see an average B1G player who needs to get more aggressive.
There is a popular saying in sports, “don’t try to do too much”. I think most players know their limits and what they can and cannot do, including Damonte. Damonte doesn’t have a high usage because he’s not a good offensive player right now. But he still has time to improve.

This discussion kind of reminds me of Joseph Bertrand’s senior year 3pt shooting. He ended up at almost 40% for the year but for much of the season he was shooting around 50% from 3. People kept wanting him to shoot more, but he only took around 1-2 attempts per game. Why? Because he wasn’t a good shooter and he knew it. That’s why he only took the absolutely best, wide open, in rhythm 3’s and it led to a good percentage.
 
Paducah, Ky
I respect and cheer for ALL Illini players to be the best they can be.......

But,IMHO, if DW is starting next year or playing 20 mins a game then we are in for another long season or our recruiting didn't pan out with a PF player or two....I really hope DW has 28 double figure scoring games out of 31 total next year, but I feel that is wishful thinking....

I didn't realize that out of 31 games so far that he only had 3 double figure games...I want everyone here to understand I'm just giving my opinion on what we need to improve on a horrific season this year....From the Gonzaga game at Maui to here has been a long, long path of losses with no adjustments to the % of mins that the players get...How many games now has it been the same starting lineup sans 1 game that Dre started over Trent....

Kipper's disappearing act this year has hindered the Illini more than DW's lack of scoring by far, but I expect Kipper will be transferring out asap...I just hope that AG and TJ don't leave because a lack of playing time...I would think they see the stats like everyone else and think they could do better than 3.2 PPG if they got the same amount of minutes...
 
Likes: greyghost70
New York
He shot 32% from 3 this year; a decent enough rate but he didn't shoot them often (not even 40 attempts).
Oops I was looking at giorgi’s 3 point percentage. Agree!
 
Paducah, Ky
There is more than one role on a team. It isn't everyone's role to score. If DW wasn't fulfilling his role, he wouldn't be playing so much. I get amazed by the people on this board who know more than the coach.
I get amazed by players not getting any minutes when other players are not producing more than 3 ppg and 2 rpg....Knowing more than the coach is not my opinion and for you to insinuate thats what i am saying is weak , at best...This is a forum for exchanging thoughts and I will defend that right for anyone...In no way did i give my opinions about DW inferring I know more than anyone, much less the coach of the Illini....But , I have eyes and watching EVERY game this year I conclude that DW should not be starting and that AG and TJ should get more minutes...If you think otherwise, so be it, but don't characterize my opinion as that I know more than anyone else here....

As far as intangibles , I simply don't see anything that DW does that should keep AG and TJ on the bench in favor of him...AG is an agressive player that rebounds better, shoots better and blocks shots better...TJ is the same type player and we just witnessed a season of experience they could of had with probably a lot better numbers with comparable minutes to DW...

If anyone takes offense to my opinion , well sorry, but thats what I believe and at 67 years old I doubt I will change a lifelong trait of speaking my mind...

JMHO
 
I have made that argument before...AJ has shown loyalty to the program and I respect that but having AJ and DW in the starting lineup stifles our O and as everyone saw this year leaves a lot to be desired on D....I applaud any Illini that plays their heart out and gives all they got, but talent like AG and TJ needs to be on the floor more than underperforming players...At least AJ could hit some 3's, but DW was a liability on O and was becoming a TO machine....

Looking forward , the program would have been better off with AG and TJ starting most of the season...

I'm still struggling with this season being the FIRST 20 loss season in HISTORY.....If BU continues to play older players with less talent than freshmen then it won't be our last 20 loss season....
Yep. Never understood playing both of those guys so much. Too duplicative especially since they were both undersized forwards with an inexperienced center. One of those guys starting, AJ because of his ability to knock down the three and more experience is fine. Both was a mistake!
 
Sycamore, Illinois
I get amazed by players not getting any minutes when other players are not producing more than 3 ppg and 2 rpg....Knowing more than the coach is not my opinion and for you to insinuate thats what i am saying is weak , at best...This is a forum for exchanging thoughts and I will defend that right for anyone...In no way did i give my opinions about DW inferring I know more than anyone, much less the coach of the Illini....But , I have eyes and watching EVERY game this year I conclude that DW should not be starting and that AG and TJ should get more minutes...If you think otherwise, so be it, but don't characterize my opinion as that I know more than anyone else here....

As far as intangibles , I simply don't see anything that DW does that should keep AG and TJ on the bench in favor of him...AG is an agressive player that rebounds better, shoots better and blocks shots better...TJ is the same type player and we just witnessed a season of experience they could of had with probably a lot better numbers with comparable minutes to DW...

If anyone takes offense to my opinion , well sorry, but thats what I believe and at 67 years old I doubt I will change a lifelong trait of speaking my mind...

JMHO
I have this argument with my wife, a teacher, all the time. I am not a teacher but, can have an opinion about how students learn and how schools are run. Doesn’t mean I know everything about it but, I can have an opinion. Feel the same about basketball. Likely never be a college basketball coach but, certainly can have a an opinion about it. Especially a team that I follow semi-religiously.

I am not convinced BU is going to end up being the guy to turn this around. I understand the calls for patience. We are young, inexperienced, tough schedule, etc. We have had bad teams before, young, inexperienced teams before and teams where the chemistry seemed lacking... none of them lost 20 games in a season. Maybe we make a run through the B1G tournament and everything about this season feels better but, it sure doesn’t seem like that is coming.