Per 40/Efficiency Stats

[FiveStar]

Blocks are only good if it is a change of possession -- if you block the shot and he gets it right back and scores a and+1 -- did the block help?

I'd still consider that the same possession for the offense and the number of possessions played by the defense and offense lineups unchanged. Is that wrong?

 

[Ransom Stoddard]

Blocks are only good if it is a change of possession -- if you block the shot and he gets it right back and scores a and+1 -- did the block help?

Not on that play, but that shooter might be more tentative the next time.

 

[yeahyeahyeah]

Not on that play, but that shooter might be more tentative the next time.

indeed, it will have an effect on the %... especially if there's more than one in a game

 

[TownieMatt]

Is there a way to quantify the effect an especially heavy pregame meal might have on a team's possessions per 40 minutes???

 

[Deleted member 29907]

TownieMatt - pretty sure you should be changing your Avatar

 

[TownieMatt]

As long as I'm Pitt in this scenario.

 

[FiveStar]

As long as I'm Pitt in this scenario.

Thought it didn’t need to be said.

 

[TownieMatt]

Thought it didn’t need to be said.

 

[ILLHangOut]

It's a good thought, and others have asked for this, but the issue is that I don't pull stats from individual games. These are aggregate stats from Basketball Reference that I pull into a spreadsheet, so you can't simply filter by opponent. I'll look into this more, but my gut says doing it would be really labor intensive.

For now, treat these like KenPom. The further we get into the season, the more accurate these will become.

They do single out conference games, but that’s about it. I went through this last year while trying to justify my disapproval of Abrams minutes.

Ps. I still believe if Abrams played <10 mins per game we go dancing last year.

 

[ILLHangOut]

I mentioned it above, but I don't believe anyone makes Plus-Minus available to the public for CBB. Would love to use it in these stats, so if anyone finds them, please let me know.

CBB BR has BPM which is a calculated stat, but I haven’t been able to find actual +/- anywhere. I remember finding one site that used to be public, but they transformed themselves into a subscription consulting service.

 

[TownieMatt]

CBB BR has BPM which is a calculated stat, but I haven’t been able to find actual +/- anywhere. I remember finding one site that used to be public, but they transformed themselves into a subscription consulting service.

Yea, BPM is in the Player Matrix I posted (first page). I'm not a huge fan of that stat since it really just mimics true Plus-Minus, but it's there anyway.

 

[JFGsCoffeeMug]

I know the stats don't change the fact that we're losing games, but they are evidence of how hard this team is playing and the impact of BU's offensive and defensive philosophies.

National rank through games 12/9/17:
3FGA: #63
FTA: #6
FTM: #2
FT%: #39
OREB/GM: #32
Scoring Off: #50
STL/GM: #55
Total AST: #45
Total REB: #50
Total STL: #19
TO margin: #26
TO forced: #8

These are obvious areas of emphasis. As we get even better at them, and improve in other areas, this team will get significantly more dangerous.

 

[blmillini]

I know the stats don't change the fact that we're losing games, but they are evidence of how hard this team is playing and the impact of BU's offensive and defensive philosophies.

National rank through games 12/9/17:
3FGA: #63
FTA: #6
FTM: #2
FT%: #39
OREB/GM: #32
Scoring Off: #50
STL/GM: #55
Total AST: #45
Total REB: #50
Total STL: #19
TO margin: #26
TO forced: #8

These are obvious areas of emphasis. As we get even better at them, and improve in other areas, this team will get significantly more dangerous.

Remember when Groce talked about playing fast?

 

[Illini B-Ball Fan]

Remember when Groce talked about playing fast?

Yeah, one of the traits was rolling the ball like a bowling ball to center court, not sure what he talked about specifically.

 

[TownieMatt]

UPDATED: 12.14.17

Updated stats heading into the "Big boy games"

- AJ still an offensive force
- Trent Frazier on the rise
- Spicy G added (played >50 mins), good rebounder, zero offense thus far

 

[JFGsCoffeeMug]

Nice to see that Frazier's observed jump is also reflected in the metrics.

On the other hand, we need Smith to make a similar jump, and soon. He's still not rebounding and he's still our worst defender (of the main rotation). That needs to change.

 

[FeelYourPaign]

5 guys shooting FT's at 80% or better. Shame we don't get to the line more.
Surprising to me that Finke isn't shooting FT's very well.
OTOH, Finke's shooting % is very good. I would never have guessed over 70% from 2 point area.
If Alstork finds his 3pt shot, he'll immediately jump in effectiveness. Gotta happen, right?

 

[TownieMatt]

5 guys shooting FT's at 80% or better. Shame we don't get to the line more.
Surprising to me that Finke isn't shooting FT's very well.
OTOH, Finke's shooting % is very good. I would never have guessed over 70% from 2 point area.
If Alstork finds his 3pt shot, he'll immediately jump in effectiveness. Gotta happen, right?

It's interesting, I see a lot of the same issues with Alstork's shot as I did with Aaron Jordan's in his first two years. There just isn't enough elevation and rotation on it.

I think the issue for both is getting used to the defense you face at this level. Any hoopers out there will know that your shot has to change when you face better defenders. You need more elevation and your release has to be quicker. I'm hopeful Alstork will get there soon.

 

[FiveStar]

It's interesting, I see a lot of the same issues with Alstork's shot as I did with Aaron Jordan's in his first two years. There just isn't enough elevation and rotation on it.

I think the issue for both is getting used to the defense you face at this level. Any hoopers out there will know that your shot has to change when you face better defenders. You need more elevation and your release has to be quicker. I'm hopeful Alstork will get there soon.

I think Alstork releases his shot too late. He bounces up and sets the ball so long it’s almost like he’s shooting on the way down. It also makes it come out flat, and he seems to have a natural fade.

The way I try to help kids our program who have similar problems is by telling them to release the ball on the way up. I feel like it gets their mechanics and timing more in line, and has an added benefit of increasing arc. My best success story is happening this year. We have a kid who shot about 24% from 3 last year, but didn’t have a horrible looking shot. This year through 14 games he’s around 40%. Hopefully he keeps it up. Hopefully Alstork gets it figured out.

 

[TownieMatt]

I think Alstork releases his shot too late. He bounces up and sets the ball so long it’s almost like he’s shooting on the way down. It also makes it come out flat, and he seems to have a natural fade.

The way I try to help kids our program who have similar problems is by telling them to release the ball on the way up. I feel like it gets their mechanics and timing more in line, and has an added benefit of increasing arc. My best success story is happening this year. We have a kid who shot about 24% from 3 last year, but didn’t have a horrible looking shot. This year through 14 games he’s around 40%. Hopefully he keeps it up. Hopefully Alstork gets it figured out.

The thing is, we know he can shoot. He shot 39% last year while jacking up nearly 6 3PA per game. He's at 26% this year (around 3 3PA per game). What has changed is the offensive system he's in, and the competition.

We've seen in the recent past that shooting doesn't always translate when a kid transfers. Aaron Cosby was a 40% three-point shooter at Seton Hall before shooting 31% with us.

That being said, what Alstork is providing on the defensive end makes him more valuable than Cosby ever was.

 

[JFGsCoffeeMug]

This team is getting it done in a number of effort stats, but failing badly in other categories (which is probably the difference in our close losses).

National rankings thru games 12/17/17:

The Good (The Bad)
3FGA: #42 (3FG%: #250)
FTA: #3
FTM: #2
FT%: #59
OREB/GM: #14 (DREB/GM: #288)
REB Margin: #61
Scoring Off: #49 (3FG DEF: #241)
STL/GM: #55 (PF/GM: #337)
Total AST: #32 (TO: #335; TO/GM: #269)
Total REB: #18
Total STL: #13 (PF: #349)
TO margin: #23
TO forced: #7 (BLK/GM: #325; BLK: #300)

 

[FeelYourPaign]

Pretty interesting stats, Mug

 

[BananaShampoo]

Ouch on the fouling and blocks. Neither are surprising if you've watched the games, though.

Sent from my XT1526 using Tapatalk

 

[TownieMatt]

UPDATED: 1.3.18

Heading into the (re)start of B1G play:

- AJ is coming back to reality a bit, but still our most efficient player according to PER/Win Shares.
- Despite Frazier's breakout, he isn't an advanced stats darling (note: fearlessness is not a quantifiable metric). Frazier's 3P% is still weighed down by early shooting struggles.
- Kipper is the antithesis of Frazier. Looks lost on the court, but scores well in advanced stats. Why? He rebounds, shooting % are decent, and advanced stats don't take into account blowing defensive assignments of failing to run the offense.

 

[TownieMatt]

UPDATED: 1.25.18

Updating for those still interested. Kipper and Ebo make the biggest jumps up, Finke and Mark Smith slide. Kipper is now our most efficient player, thanks to a couple big offensive games and his rebounding (again, advanced stats don't measure bone-headed plays on defense).