Pregame: Illinois at Michigan State, Saturday, November 9th, 2:30pm CT, FS1

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Average total number of passes was 27 a game last year. 25 per game this year, not much difference. So reducing the number of interceptions is an impressive number.
Good catch, I hadn't realized that.

Brandon gets a lot of criticism, mostly from me but he should be commended in this area. For the style of football we are playing, this stat is vital to our success. Kudos to him.
 
Just saw a tweet that the line has moved to +15. It seems the big boy gamblers believe we will get blown out
 
Tyngsborough, MA
Just saw a tweet that the line has moved to +15. It seems the big boy gamblers believe we will get blown out
Why?

Rhetorical question.

I think we have as good a chance to win as MSU. Maybe better. But, I am an Illini. :hailtotheorange:
 
I want to create a stat (assuming its not already one). TOP in relation to production. I could care less (to an extent) about TOP or Yards as long as the points don't correspond. I think TOP in College is not as important because the likelihood of a mistake high higher than in the Pros.
Don't get me started on time of possession. If you want to look at how tired a defense is getting, look at number of plays they defended, not at how long the game clock ran while they were on the field. If you want to look at how effective a team was in "keeping the other offense off the field," then look at the number of possessions.
 
Don't get me started on time of possession. If you want to look at how tired a defense is getting, look at number of plays they defended, not at how long the game clock ran while they were on the field. If you want to look at how effective a team was in "keeping the other offense off the field," then look at the number of possessions.
Someone smart needs to figure this stat out: TOP - Plays Defended - Point Production Maybe give it a cool baseball like WHIP/OPS.
 
Someone smart needs to figure this stat out: TOP - Plays Defended - Point Production Maybe give it a cool baseball like WHIP/OPS.
Expand on what you're asking for here. I get what the first two stats are, but what are looking for in a "Point production" stat? And, how are you expecting them all to relate? I like to think I'm a stats guy, and I LOVE making my own stat comparisons. I'll take a jab at something here, but I'm just looking for more clarification.
 
Plainfield
Well I wonder if we press the pass to open up the run? Can Brandon do it?
 
Tyngsborough, MA
Rainer Sabin of the Detroit Free press has us winning 27 - 21.
Also, Purdue 24 NW 10.

Sorry, can't provide a link.
 
Expand on what you're asking for here. I get what the first two stats are, but what are looking for in a "Point production" stat? And, how are you expecting them all to relate? I like to think I'm a stats guy, and I LOVE making my own stat comparisons. I'll take a jab at something here, but I'm just looking for more clarification.
I assumed it was more of a calculation to do with just total defensive plays and points against the defense. Time of possession doesn't seem to really matter considering how dependent it is on the offense strategy.
OSU gives up X amount of points per play
ILL gives up the same X amount of point per play, their offense just isn't good enough to stay on the field as long. So ILL's defense has to protect 25 more plays per game. There is the difference. Having a hard time believing TOP would bring any value. Maybe your offenses TOP. Not sure how much value it adds
 
We just cannot let them do what Mi did to us in the first half. We haven't really played two good halves in a game this year. Now is the time to do it. They don't have a Nb scrambling qb. They play more like Ia. But this should be a very good test and game for our def. Win this game take a week off and go into Ia. I really don't care what bettors are saying, just win. Looking forward to a win Saturday.
 
Morris, IL
Expand on what you're asking for here. I get what the first two stats are, but what are looking for in a "Point production" stat? And, how are you expecting them all to relate? I like to think I'm a stats guy, and I LOVE making my own stat comparisons. I'll take a jab at something here, but I'm just looking for more clarification.
Interesting concept, if it doesn't exist already, to look at points scored per minute TOP and points scored per play. Doing this for offenses would, I suspect show a wide spectrum that may not mean much (quick strike, big play offenses vs. grind it out 3 yds and a cloud of dust offenses vs. offenses that don't score). But calculating these for defenses, I suspect it would show that a good defenses is a good defense, regardless of which style offense they face (can be on the field for a lot of time/plays but if they don't give up points = good index). Which prompts the question "how much above or below average is our defense at surrending points given the time or number of plays they defend?".
 
Interesting concept, if it doesn't exist already, to look at points scored per minute TOP and points scored per play. Doing this for offenses would, I suspect show a wide spectrum that may not mean much (quick strike, big play offenses vs. grind it out 3 yds and a cloud of dust offenses vs. offenses that don't score). But calculating these for defenses, I suspect it would show that a good defenses is a good defense, regardless of which style offense they face (can be on the field for a lot of time/plays but if they don't give up points = good index). Which prompts the question "how much above or below average is our defense at surrending points given the time or number of plays they defend?".
I think really all you can do is ask the defense to minimize net points per possession. There is an element of field position that this ignores but that would get complicated.
 
Question
If a defense gives up 10 yards in 3 plays within 1.2 minutes, what is the difference in another defense giving up 10 yards in 3 plays in .8 minutes? It took the other team 3 plays to get 10 yards, what value is there in knowing how long it took them to run those three plays?
 
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I think it's become an outdated statistic in the era of quick strike offenses.

Maybe it was semi relevant when the forward pass wasn't as developed. Nah it was probably never really relevant but one of those causation correlation type things where the belief is that a team that has the ball longer scores more points.

If coaches weren't aware that being productive with your possessions mattered, they probably shouldn't have been coaches.
 
Someone more plugged into the program, like 0440, will be able to shed actual light on this but from the sounds of things Betiku and Woods will be good to go this week but Smalling won't.
 
Someone more plugged into the program, like 0440, will be able to shed actual light on this but from the sounds of things Betiku and Woods will be good to go this week but Smalling won't.
Not to sound mean or anything, but those two being able to play is much more important for success than Smalling IMO. They have a few receivers that have stepped up to outperform him since he went out.
 
South Carolina
Someone more plugged into the program, like 0440, will be able to shed actual light on this but from the sounds of things Betiku and Woods will be good to go this week but Smalling won't.
I'm hoping Smalling is just week-to-week status. They would have said something by now if it was season ending right?
 
I'm hoping Smalling is just week-to-week status. They would have said something by now if it was season ending right?
Yes. Even Lovie would have come out and said it, and we know how much he hesitates to do it. Though he has had his struggles, I do hope Smalling can come back and be part of a bowl game, as all those upperclassmen deserve it.
 
Likes: Halloweenie
South Carolina
Yes. Even Lovie would have come out and said it, and we know how much he hesitates to do it. Though he has had his struggles, I do hope Smalling can come back and be part of a bowl game, as all those upperclassmen deserve it.
He's been a lot better this year than last year. I really only recall one game this season where he had multiple bad drops.
 
Likes: VAIllini35
Expect more bad news than good news regarding injuries on Saturday.
 
They also played PSU after a bye and laid an egg at home. I'm not saying that we are PSU, and I am not saying this won't be tough, but missing 3 key players from a team that has been lifeless so far this season and is looking at a possible coaching change leaves me thinking this is a very possible win. Those saying we can beat Iowa on the road, however, are crazy.

Actually i absolutely believe we can beat iowa. We should have won in cubits last year. And we played them well last time in kinnick until jeff george threw the pick n we just bottomed out from there
 
Orange Krush Class of 2013
Stanford, CA
I think really all you can do is ask the defense to minimize net points per possession. There is an element of field position that this ignores but that would get complicated.
Maybe not that complicated. There's a pretty well established trend for expected points based on first down position here. Subtract that expectation from the actual points allowed on a given drive and you have a decent metric for how well the D is meeting expectations. Even better if one could get that curve for the specific offense you're playing against.
 
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