Pregame: Illinois at Minnesota, Saturday, October 5th, 2:30pm CT, BTN

Status
Not open for further replies.
#101      
My feel is that we will be up 14 and start doing cute things, like throw the ball 80% of the time.

DNA baby.
 
#102      

FinalFour88

Charlotte, NC
I have a really bad feeling about this game. Hope I'm wrong. I don't think we'll cover the spread. I don't think this game will be close at all. Then again, I didn't think we'd cover against Nebraska, and we did. So who knows?
 
#103      
Offense lost the game last week. One 3rd down conversion, 40 yards passing after the first couple drives. Etc. Defense played 100 plays, and were emptied by the 3rd quarter.

If they’re going to win another game the offense is going to need to run the ball more, and control the pace better. They’re not going to win a shootout with Peters as the QB.

copied from the postgame thread:
Looking at other BigTen box scores it seems like teams usually run 50 - 70 plays. The first 9 drives Nebraska had:
53 plays
199 yards
3.7 yards per play
14 points
2 TOs

That’s a complete game for a some big ten teams. Expanding it to the first 13 drives:
66 plays
373 yards
5.6 yards per play
21 points
4 TOs

The next 4 drives were 275 yards, 3 TDs, and a missed FG from the goal line which could’ve easily been another TD. The defense was gassed.
It actually is almost impossible to run the ball more. With the exception of our last two drives, we barely threw it. That, in my mind, is what caused a lot of the problems for the offense. I can remember earlier in the season, Peters was 10 of 12 for over 100 yards and so many on this board were whining about running the ball more, at that point in the game. This is not a great high school team playing the little sisters of the poor. If we want to be successful on offense there needs to be a better mix of play selection by the offense.
 
#104      

illini80

Forgottonia
I have a really bad feeling about this game. Hope I'm wrong. I don't think we'll cover the spread. I don't think this game will be close at all. Then again, I didn't think we'd cover against Nebraska, and we did. So who knows?
Imo our only chance is to have a really good offensive game. Minnesota defense is not good, but ours is worse.
 
#105      
It actually is almost impossible to run the ball more. With the exception of our last two drives, we barely threw it. That, in my mind, is what caused a lot of the problems for the offense. I can remember earlier in the season, Peters was 10 of 12 for over 100 yards and so many on this board were whining about running the ball more, at that point in the game. This is not a great high school team playing the little sisters of the poor. If we want to be successful on offense there needs to be a better mix of play selection by the offense.

The issue isn’t “why didn’t we run the football more”, at least it shouldn’t be. It’s about why we didn’t run the ball in certain, very specific in-game situations. Best example, that sequence in the 3rd quarter after the turnover where Hansen ripped the ball free. You’re up 7, Nebraska is gaining momentum after an easy 70+ yard TD one possession earlier. Your last drive ended in a 3 and out punt after 1 lonely minute, there are only 22 minutes left in the entire ball game and you’re set up at the Nebraska 35-ish. This is the EXACT TIME to hammer the ball down their throat with your best player, grind the clock, swing some momentum back your way and at the very least give your big legged kicker a better opportunity to make it a 2 score game with 4-5 minutes left in the 3rd. Want to guess which 3 plays we actually called? 3 pass attempts, including a trick play with Trenard Davis that fooled approximately no one. Peters took a sack and we punted the ball away, we ticked 1:02 off the game clock.

These are the types of drives that stick in people’s minds and cause them to scream about running the football more. And they’re right to do so.
 
#106      
In an ideal world we pass more. The Nebraska game represents one very specific scenario that in my opinion demanded we throw less if even not at all.

This a game the Illini were winning the entire game. The only reason they lost is because Nebraska was able to come from behind and win by 5 after scoring 24 points on their last 4 drives of the game.

If the circumstances were different then I’d have a different opinion.

In the 2nd half Brandon Peters was 3-14 for 17 yards, and a sack for -4 yards.

Corbin was averaging 6.4 yards per carry and Brown 9.8 yards per carry.

They passed repeatedly on third down, and converted at most 1 on the only completion of the 3rd quarter (I cant recall if that was 3rd down).

With the defense gassed if they had run the ball 10 more times and let the clock tick down that would’ve run at least an extra 5 minutes off the clock.

Personally, I just can’t understand the idea of passing more with how terribly Peters played. I feel like some posters have an affection for him that blinds them to how poorly he has played. He honestly may be the worst QB I have seen start at Illinois.
 
#107      

Deleted member 654622

D
Guest
The issue isn’t “why didn’t we run the football more”, at least it shouldn’t be. It’s about why we didn’t run the ball in certain, very specific in-game situations. Best example, that sequence in the 3rd quarter after the turnover where Hansen ripped the ball free. You’re up 7, Nebraska is gaining momentum after an easy 70+ yard TD one possession earlier. Your last drive ended in a 3 and out punt after 1 lonely minute, there are only 22 minutes left in the entire ball game and you’re set up at the Nebraska 35-ish. This is the EXACT TIME to hammer the ball down their throat with your best player, grind the clock, swing some momentum back your way and at the very least give your big legged kicker a better opportunity to make it a 2 score game with 4-5 minutes left in the 3rd. Want to guess which 3 plays we actually called? 3 pass attempts, including a trick play with Trenard Davis that fooled approximately no one. Peters took a sack and we punted the ball away, we ticked 1:02 off the game clock.

These are the types of drives that stick in people’s minds and cause them to scream about running the football more. And they’re right to do so.
Not going to argue the situational play calling has been a head scratcher at times. Side bar, Trenard doesn't throw it in triple coverage and Rod might look like a genius again. Would have to go back and watch but I thought Dre was open down the sideline? But that isn't the point. I am just going to mention that Rod has had to completely alter his system from AJ Bush who was more willing to run then throw, to Peters who really doesn't want to run. And Peters showed up in August. Add on that this is Peter's first bad game. He had some bad quarters, but never this bad of a game. If you told us before the game that Barker was going to be running down the sideline with a 10 yard cushion and Peter's threw it to him. Would anyone think twice about it being an easy TD? I think it is a harder transition with the limited time than we all might know and be given credit for. If the players execute, then we look a little more like the Pats right. Short passes and 4-6 yrd runs.
I also think that our average yard per run is still on the higher end in part because of the threat of the pass. The risk of the QB keep is all but gone. If we become way more run heavy, then that number will decrease. How long does it take to truly know what this personnel is capable of? I can't answer that question. I would think at least six games into a season considering these circumstances.
 
#108      

Deleted member 654622

D
Guest
He honestly may be the worst QB I have seen start at Illinois.
You don't think you might be over reacting a little bit?
ross.gif
 
#110      
I’ll qualify it by limiting to top of the depth chart starters. I’m not familiar with all the backups that have started games.

Who would you think has been worse, and I’ll educate myself?
I wont come out and say you're wrong, but if you're comparing him to guys like Lunt, O'Toole, Chayce Crouch, and AJ Bush, you're gonna have a hard time convincing me Brandon Peters is the worst QB out of that lot.
 
#112      

Deleted member 654622

D
Guest
I’ll qualify it by limiting to top of the depth chart starters. I’m not familiar with all the backups that have started games.

Who would you think has been worse, and I’ll educate myself?
https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/schools/illinois/2019.html
Well he currently has a 138 QB rating

AJ Bush 108
MJ Rivers 104
JGJR 112
Crouch 85.2
Cam Thomas 75
Wes Lunt 113
JGJR 85
Crouch 125
Lunt 115
Crouch 97
Lunt 141.6
O'Toole 122

There you go. It took me hitting the "Previous Year" button until I got to 2014 before someone had a season that was QB rating better than Peter's current.

There is a lot more to it than the QB rating. But honestly that comment doesn't deserve anyone to spend more than 2 min to know its wrong.
 
#113      

Illinir1

Camdenton, MO
I think this illustrates what happened in the game against Nebraska, and makes sense in practical terms. On average the defense is fresh for about 28 minutes, then a big drop off in defense, or increase in opposing offensive production due to fatigue kicking in.

No excuse to not run the ball more in this game when your top 2 backs are combined 193 yards on 26 carries for 7.4 yards per carry !!!!!!! Run it on 3rd and long, who cares, better than Peters attempting a pass.

It’s like this “team” is two separate teams doing their own thing. I can’t think of a single excuse for Rod Smith to call the game he called.
- Playing with a lead
- Top 2 RBs averaging 7.4 yards per carry in this game and over 200 yards as a team
- QB with net 64 yards on 24 drop backs (including sacks)
- Defense clearly gassed, and not deep enough to keep pace

3rd Quarter - 10 rushes, 7 pass plays (1 completion, net 13 yards including sack loss)
4th Quarter - 4 rushes, 8 pass plays (2 completions, 3 yards)

Those 3 completions on 15 drop backs in the 2nd have did no favors for our time of possession.
The issue isn’t “why didn’t we run the football more”, at least it shouldn’t be. It’s about why we didn’t run the ball in certain, very specific in-game situations. Best example, that sequence in the 3rd quarter after the turnover where Hansen ripped the ball free. You’re up 7, Nebraska is gaining momentum after an easy 70+ yard TD one possession earlier. Your last drive ended in a 3 and out punt after 1 lonely minute, there are only 22 minutes left in the entire ball game and you’re set up at the Nebraska 35-ish. This is the EXACT TIME to hammer the ball down their throat with your best player, grind the clock, swing some momentum back your way and at the very least give your big legged kicker a better opportunity to make it a 2 score game with 4-5 minutes left in the 3rd. Want to guess which 3 plays we actually called? 3 pass attempts, including a trick play with Trenard Davis that fooled approximately no one. Peters took a sack and we punted the ball away, we ticked 1:02 off the game clock.

These are the types of drives that stick in people’s minds and cause them to scream about running the football more. And they’re right to do so.

Yep, terrible game and clock management by this staff. Illinois is 7th in the B1G for rushing yards per game. Illinois is 14th in the B1G for time of possession. Even when we're running the ball we do the hurry up and when an offensive possession ends without a score, it takes way lower than average amount of time off the clock. We don't have a high scoring offense and our defense is porous. Run the ball and SLOW the game down. Would have likely resulted in a "W" against Nebraska.
 
#114      
The issue isn’t “why didn’t we run the football more”, at least it shouldn’t be. It’s about why we didn’t run the ball in certain, very specific in-game situations. Best example, that sequence in the 3rd quarter after the turnover where Hansen ripped the ball free. You’re up 7, Nebraska is gaining momentum after an easy 70+ yard TD one possession earlier. Your last drive ended in a 3 and out punt after 1 lonely minute, there are only 22 minutes left in the entire ball game and you’re set up at the Nebraska 35-ish. This is the EXACT TIME to hammer the ball down their throat with your best player, grind the clock, swing some momentum back your way and at the very least give your big legged kicker a better opportunity to make it a 2 score game with 4-5 minutes left in the 3rd. Want to guess which 3 plays we actually called? 3 pass attempts, including a trick play with Trenard Davis that fooled approximately no one. Peters took a sack and we punted the ball away, we ticked 1:02 off the game clock.

These are the types of drives that stick in people’s minds and cause them to scream about running the football more. And they’re right to do so.
You need to remember that our best player only averaged 3 yards per carry after our first two offensive plays in the game. So, that becomes 3 plays and out again. Do you really think that Lovie would have gone for it on 4th and one while deep in his own territory later in the game? Yep, that's the strategy.
 
#115      
- Regarding Illinois - Minny 14 I don't think you are missing anything. Both teams have bad Defenses.

Illinois strength is the running game on Offense- Miny strength on Offense is passing. Any team that gives up 700 yards a game to Nebraska (Illinois) is a bad defense- Dont care how it is sliced in the narrative. I repeat both teams have no Defense.

This game should be closer than you think for Illinois but hair brained penalty's are killing this team I swear they lead the league in excessive celebration penalties and targeting. This is a team that when they score a touchdown they act like it never occurred before - which there is a slight angle to that thought.

If I was going to play this game I would take Illinois and 14 points only because the Offense led by Rod Smith Coach is not dead for Illinois. There are alot of better games to hitch your wagon to than this one as it will be ugly but I think Illinois covers this number.

Good Luck Illini Nation- In fact you just allowed myself to be talked on to that game. Illinois -14 to cover
 
#116      

gecIllini

Colorado
- Regarding Illinois - Minny 14 I don't think you are missing anything. Both teams have bad Defenses.

Illinois strength is the running game on Offense- Miny strength on Offense is passing. Any team that gives up 700 yards a game to Nebraska (Illinois) is a bad defense- Dont care how it is sliced in the narrative. I repeat both teams have no Defense.

This game should be closer than you think for Illinois but hair brained penalty's are killing this team I swear they lead the league in excessive celebration penalties and targeting. This is a team that when they score a touchdown they act like it never occurred before - which there is a slight angle to that thought.

If I was going to play this game I would take Illinois and 14 points only because the Offense led by Rod Smith Coach is not dead for Illinois. There are alot of better games to hitch your wagon to than this one as it will be ugly but I think Illinois covers this number.

Good Luck Illini Nation- In fact you just allowed myself to be talked on to that game. Illinois -14 to cover
My opinion is to take the over, but I don't know what that number is yet.
 
#117      
You need to remember that our best player only averaged 3 yards per carry after our first two offensive plays in the game. So, that becomes 3 plays and out again. Do you really think that Lovie would have gone for it on 4th and one while deep in his own territory later in the game? Yep, that's the strategy.

His yards per carry average excluding the big touchdown run was 3.57 which is roughly the equivalent of gaining 4 yards, 4 yards and 3 yards. That would be a first down. Or if you prefer, we could have simply handed the ball to Dre Brown who was phenomenal that evening.

Not sure what your last sentence is referring to, what does potentially going for it on 4th and 1 in your own territory have to do with this scenario?
 
#118      
Two losses by a total of five points.
Illinois 40
Minnesota 24
 
#120      
Yep, terrible game and clock management by this staff. Illinois is 7th in the B1G for rushing yards per game. Illinois is 14th in the B1G for time of possession. Even when we're running the ball we do the hurry up and when an offensive possession ends without a score, it takes way lower than average amount of time off the clock. We don't have a high scoring offense and our defense is porous. Run the ball and SLOW the game down. Would have likely resulted in a "W" against Nebraska.
Agree 100%...as an underdog with a lead, running the quick offense lengthens the game when we need to shorten it and to give our defense a longer rest.
 
#121      

SKane

Tennessee
MN has won close ugly games.

ILL has lost close ugly games.

Therefore, I expect MN to win at home.

I don't think that the extra week to prepare will offset all of the above.

Something like 45 - 35 would not be suprising.
 
#122      

Deleted member 654622

D
Guest
Just asking. Didn’t Illinois score on three of the four turnovers the defense caused? And how long did Illinois’ touchdown drives take?
5 plays, 8 yards, 2:53
1 Play, 2 yards, :05
2 plays, 14 yards, :30
 
#123      
How many 3 and outs do you think the IL defense had? 2 in the first half and one more the first drive on the second half.
I don't know where your pulling your numbers from. But this is what ESPN has
First half - Neb 46 plays 287 yards
For comparison purposes - Min vs Purdue first half - Purdue 42 plays 178 yards
You want to say the Def played its best game we have seen in a long time. I don't disagree. But that is a really low bar. Min gave up 100 less yards in four less snaps. Did the offense have a bad game? ABSOLUTELY. But to say the defense doesn't have blame in the loss is dead wrong.

Purdue did lose its starting QB and top offensive player on same play in 1st quarter. Not saying Illini D played great or didn’t play a role in loss, but those losses definitely impacted Purdue’s offensive stats.
 
#124      

Illinisteve25

Champaign
Looks like possible rain for game Saturday. That could help us defend the pass a little haha
 
Status
Not open for further replies.