Pregame: Illinois at Ohio State, Thursday, February 14th, 6:00pm CT, ESPN2

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#82
Yeah it's definitely a long shot to actually happen but I will have to respectfully disagree with anyone who says a 17-17 team who just went 10-2 in their last 12 games in a very tough B1G doesn't get in. 3 or 4 of those wins would be top 25 and 5 or 6 would be against tourney teams. I'm not sure what the metrics would reflect after a run like that but they would pass the eye test without a doubt.

More than likely, none of this matters. As you said, I'm hoping for 4-3 and continuing positive momentum for next year!
Everyone knows that how you finish the season isn't relevant, right? The NCAA took the "last ten games" out of consideration years ago. Each game is weighed the same.
 
#84


Selection Criteria
The NCAA Evaluation Tool, known as the NET, is in its first year of existence and is one of many factors used by NCAA sports committees when evaluating team selection, seeding and bracketing.
The components of the NET include the Team Value Index, which is based on game results and factors game location, the opponent and outcome, as well as net efficiency, winning percentage, adjusted winning percentage and a capped scoring margin.
Other criteria the committee considers in the selections process:
  • An extensive season-long evaluation of teams through watching games, conference monitoring calls and regional advisory committee rankings.
  • Complete box scores and results.
  • Head-to-head results and results versus common opponents.
  • Imbalanced conference schedules and results.
  • Overall and nonconference strength of schedule.
  • The quality of wins and losses.
  • Road record.
  • Player and coach availability.
  • Various computer metrics.
http://www.ncaa.org/about/resources/media-center/mens-basketball-selections-101-selections
 
#85
So we can beat #13 Maryland at MSG where it was about 80% Terp fans, but we can't beat unrated OSU in Columbus?
And our most recent non-home game was a loss at unranked Minnesota. I just see us keeping it close throughout, but then OSU makes their free throws at the end.
 
#86


Selection Criteria
The NCAA Evaluation Tool, known as the NET, is in its first year of existence and is one of many factors used by NCAA sports committees when evaluating team selection, seeding and bracketing.
The components of the NET include the Team Value Index, which is based on game results and factors game location, the opponent and outcome, as well as net efficiency, winning percentage, adjusted winning percentage and a capped scoring margin.
Other criteria the committee considers in the selections process:
  • An extensive season-long evaluation of teams through watching games, conference monitoring calls and regional advisory committee rankings.
  • Complete box scores and results.
  • Head-to-head results and results versus common opponents.
  • Imbalanced conference schedules and results.
  • Overall and nonconference strength of schedule.
  • The quality of wins and losses.
  • Road record.
  • Player and coach availability.
  • Various computer metrics.
http://www.ncaa.org/about/resources/media-center/mens-basketball-selections-101-selections
Yup, and imbalanced schedules were a significant part of it. The argument was that some teams had very tough schedules for their last 10 games, and shouldn't be penalized for it. Likewise, a team's last 10 could be relatively easy.

Unfortunately there isn't really a metric to capture what we've done. If there was, I doubt it would be a fair one.
 
#88
Yup, and imbalanced schedules were a significant part of it. The argument was that some teams had very tough schedules for their last 10 games, and shouldn't be penalized for it. Likewise, a team's last 10 could be relatively easy.

Unfortunately there isn't really a metric to capture what we've done. If there was, I doubt it would be a fair one.

Unfortunately, the 'L' column is as far as they'll get in examining the Illini this season. Let's hope for a Big Ten Tourney win.
 
#89
16-15 with a Top 5-10 SOS and 4 wins over Top 25 teams probably puts us on the Next Four Out/First Four Out side of the bubble. Indiana and Texas are teams with SOS in the 10-20 range who’s records are hovering around .500 and since their SOS is so high they are in the 40’s-50’s range in most computers meaning that if we somehow finish 16-15 then we will for sure be getting bubble talk. Underwood went 9 of 10 at OKLA ST to make the tourney, why not go 10 of 10 for us?
 
Likes: foby
#90
Springfiled, IL.
To add to this, Illinois is 0-12 under Underwood in the blue jerseys (this includes the exhibition loss to EIU last season). The blues are only worn away from home (the oranges are also available in the road rotation).

Let's take a look at the resurgence-

W Minnesota_____(White)
L @Iowa_________(Blue)
L Wisconsin_____(White)
W Maryland______(Orange)
L @Minnesota____(Blue)
W Nebraska______(White)
W Michigan St___(Orange Throwbacks)

W Rutgers_______(White)


Orange: 2-0
White: 3-1
Blue 0-2

In conclusion..only orange!

Plus we worn orange the 2 games we won last year against Missouri and Rutgers. So this means we have never won a game wearing blue with Underwood as are coach.
 
#91
Everyone knows that how you finish the season isn't relevant, right? The NCAA took the "last ten games" out of consideration years ago. Each game is weighed the same.
I guess the way I phrased that made it seem like that was the sole point of my argument for them to be in. It wasn't, I was just making the point that if that happens our resume will stack up in a manner that gets us in.

Even if there isn't an "official" criteria of recent performance, you can't tell me that a team that just rolled through the B1G and one that limped to the finish line will be viewed in the same light.. even if their resumes are similar.

We have one "bad" loss and that's FAU @home. All the others were to teams that will be Q1 or Q2 because they were neutral site or away.
 
Likes: bobbob
#92


Selection Criteria
The NCAA Evaluation Tool, known as the NET, is in its first year of existence and is one of many factors used by NCAA sports committees when evaluating team selection, seeding and bracketing.
The components of the NET include the Team Value Index, which is based on game results and factors game location, the opponent and outcome, as well as net efficiency, winning percentage, adjusted winning percentage and a capped scoring margin.
Other criteria the committee considers in the selections process:
  • An extensive season-long evaluation of teams through watching games, conference monitoring calls and regional advisory committee rankings.
  • Complete box scores and results.
  • Head-to-head results and results versus common opponents.
  • Imbalanced conference schedules and results.
  • Overall and nonconference strength of schedule.
  • The quality of wins and losses.
  • Road record.
  • Player and coach availability.
  • Various computer metrics.
http://www.ncaa.org/about/resources/media-center/mens-basketball-selections-101-selections
Scary.

Very scary.

The NCAA is getting logical.
 
#93
Let's say we finished 7th which is quite possible, would a the Tournament committee pick a team lower than us in conference if they had a better overall record over us?
 
#94
FWIW, Would have to think that Georgetown game w/o Trent would be factored in to the consideration slightly. If he plays I think he makes up the 8 points we lost by, especially considering that it was a 1-2 possession game down the stretch. Along with Jones 8-game suspension, and ADLR coming off the torn ACL, we haven’t had a full roster/rotation for 9 total games. Not sure what our record was in those 9 games, but if we do magically finish 12-0 or very close to it and win a game or two in the BTT, it would likely be considered.
 
#96
If we trot out there in the blue jerseys on Thursday, I am going to be so plssed! Obviously, it is probably the lurking variable of it being officially our "road" uniform, but we have ALWAYS seemed to play much worse in road/neutral games where we wear blue than when we were orange. In 2005, our best season in program history, we managed to not wear blue once. I say we make it a "thing" and just only wear Fighting Illini throwbacks down the stretch. :)
 
#98
The Georgetown, Missouri, and Xavier losses are currently Q3.
We both are wrong.

Georgetown Q2(78)
Miznoz Q2(91)
Xavier Q3(108)

Neutral site is as follows.

Q1 1-50
Q2 51-100
Q3 101-200
Q4 201-353

At the time of my first post I was guessing everyone besides FAU was top 100..
 
#99
Yeah, I was wrong on Missouri and edited my post. Georgetown (NET 78) is still barely Q3, though. From this article:

Quadrant 1: Home 1-30, Neutral 1-50, Away 1-75
Quadrant 2: Home 31-75, Neutral 51-100, Away 76-135
Quadrant 3: Home 76-160, Neutral 101-200, Away 135-240
Quadrant 4: Home 161-353, Neutral 201-353, Away 241-353
 
Likes: Chukwuwumba
Yeah, I was wrong on Missouri and edited my post. Georgetown (NET 78) is still barely Q3, though. From this article:

Quadrant 1: Home 1-30, Neutral 1-50, Away 1-75
Quadrant 2: Home 31-75, Neutral 51-100, Away 76-135
Quadrant 3: Home 76-160, Neutral 101-200, Away 135-240
Quadrant 4: Home 161-353, Neutral 201-353, Away 241-353
Yeah forgot that was home. Hopefully the quality of actual work I am doing while bouncing back and forth between here is better than the quality of research on the illini season and NET rankings to date. 😆
 
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