Pregame: Illinois at Purdue, Tuesday, January 21st, 6:00pm CT, ESPNU

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That would require some subjectivity in the application of the model. Sure, the model itself is subjective, but at least its application is objective.

Anyway, Torvik's site can make predictions like this on a per-team basis. On the main rankings page, set the start date to the "light switch moment" and note the ranking (e.g. if set to 1/5, Illinois is #6). Now, go to the team page and click on Teamcast. In the box for Projected T-Rank, enter the number noted earlier. Then, scroll down a bit to the bottom of the schedule, and click Submit (under the extra games section). The projected record and schedule (and its expected win percentages) are updated to reflect how the team has been playing since the specified date. This, of course, assumes no other teams improve or get worse over the remainder of the season.

Based on Illinois' performance from 1/5 on, Torvik's overall projection is 21-10 (13-7). The individual game predictions are more favorable, with only four losses: @Purdue (52%), @Iowa (54%), @Rutgers (56%), and @OSU (55%).
I'd say you could build more subjective metrics into a model to make it account for these sorts of things when applied objectively, but it would be pretty challenging. It would have to make intelligent decisions about when the "light switch" was flipped and also the odds of it remaining flipped. Maybe it's more of a job for training a model with machine learning.
 
I'd say how we guard the three point line will be the determinative factor in how many of the next eight games we end up winning. We will score enough points to win if we can just limit the spurts of the three point runs.
We didn't guard the three very well in our last game. NW shoots 32% on the year but shot 42% vs. us. On the season we are allowing opponents to shoot 33%.
 
Mackey is a tough place to play, and I obviously hope we don't go in with a complacent attitude ... but these guys should be and NEED to be confident! As far as they are concerned, there is only one streak that should matter:

We are 1-0 this season against Purdue, and that included an historic beatdown, 63-37.

Again, they shouldn't be complacent, and the key is that an INTENSE team effort is needed to beat them ... but we can beat them. Let's go do it!
 
.......and they don't have a road win that ranks anywhere near our win over Wisconsin. Oh, and they beat Seton Hall without their Big East preseason player of the year. St. Bonnie lost to Siena, Canisius, Ohio, and Vermont, plus a recent 28 point loss to VCU.
I agree, they don't have a road win like Illinois' over Wisc. As to Seton Hall not having their best player -- NET doesn't take that into consideration (they also beat them by 20). So Rutgers has wins over Seton Hall (#12 in NET) and SFA (87) with all their non-conference wins being against teams ranked above 280 and only two ranked under 200. Illini's best non-conference wins are against Hawaii (169) and Old Dominion (173). Two of their wins were against teams with NET ranks of under 280 (315 and 329) and four in total ranked under 200. I'm not saying Rutgers is better than Illinois (I don't think that nor do those voting in AP poll). But at this time, tied in conference with Rutgers having one less loss as well as the body of work out of conference, I'd be surprised if the NET or any other statistical ranking program had Illinois ranked higher. And both Kenpom (24 vs. 35) and Torvik (12 vs. 36) have Rutgers ranked higher too.
 
Kenpom has us going 1-7 in our next 8 games? I get it we've been bad, but Coach changing our defense has been Huge this year. I say 4-4, hopefully 5-3. I like these next 2 road games to be honest. 1 game at a time. Go beat Purdue men.
 
Looks like that 5.5 is holding too. What is crazy is the O/U is 126. I guess that is reflective of 2 of the BIG's poorer 3 pt shooting teams and 2 of the lower scoring teams. Painter will use some zone.
 
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Looks like that 5.5 is holding too. What is crazy is the O/U is 126.
Sorry, this sort of stuff is foreign to me. I never look at this sort of stuff. What is crazy about that? Do you take the under there? Is it just crazy based on how low our points were last time we played them? I divide by 2 and give a bucket to a winner and think 65-61 seems really reasonable.
 
We need to hit the floor as if we are 10 points behind at the start of the game to get our motor running. Rebounding and getting into a transition game is how we win. Not starting with the perimeter weave and waving to the crowd does nothing. Play to our strength, avoid the cheap fouls and hit a reasonable percentage of our shots will give us the best chance to win. Go Illini.
 
Sorry, this sort of stuff is foreign to me. I never look at this sort of stuff. What is crazy about that? Do you take the under there? Is it just crazy based on how low our points were last time we played them? I divide by 2 and give a bucket to a winner and think 65-61 seems really reasonable.
In simple terms, we are averaging basically 140 per game for the season and we drop to 125 in conference. Just goes to show what a slugfest the BIG is. Our defense has been very good. Think of where we were last year and where we are today defensively. Just a great coaching job in my mind. Kofi has of course helped a lot.
 
Los Angeles
They're desperate and are going to turn it into a wrestling match. It'll be borderline unwatchable win or lose. Purdue's whole strategy at home is to just maul on the perimeter - can't call them all. I hate Purdue.

signed,
Purdue alum
 
They're desperate and are going to turn it into a wrestling match. It'll be borderline unwatchable win or lose. Purdue's whole strategy at home is to just maul on the perimeter - can't call them all. I hate Purdue.

signed,
Purdue alum
Sounds like a Mizzou replay...I dont expect us to be able to deal with that very well from past experience. Hopefully our FTs go down like with NW and we can keep it close.
 
Rutgers didn't lose to Miami and Missouri. Who you lose to counts the same as who you beat. Maybe more.
Rutgers has losses to St. Bonaventure 128 and Pitt at 71. Missouri is 75 and Miami is 89. I would say Rutgers has a little worse set of losses than Illinois. Maybe they have better wins.
 
Rutgers didn't lose to Miami and Missouri. Who you lose to counts the same as who you beat. Maybe more.
Don't misrepresent me. (I just didn't compare this to Rutgers) But, that's why the NET is a joke (too many GEEKS). You, apparently, and the "system" can continue to be worried about games that a team plays early, flukes, or that are embarrassing, but that's not picking the best 68 for the tourney, if that's what NET and the NCAA is trying to do (I think they would tell you so). It's just a system that some geniuses developed that they thought would create a "'fair" result to analyze the field. But the "system" should not be such that a team obvious playing MUCH better should not be losing ground for playing better to teams they are losing ground to, yet they are beating (Not just Rutgers: Rutgers. Michigan, Purdue, Wisconsin; real results not just you beat them so I can beat you BS). Talking about counter intuitive. FIND a System that Works. Don't just defend a system because it exists. Be a thinker, not a follower. I know it's the system in place, but, as I say, it's a joke.
Duke is 2d in the NET, yet they have two losses at least as bad as Illinois, Clemson and SFA (they are not a juggernaut in spite of Underwood creating their reputation).
 
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