Pregame: Illinois at Purdue, Tuesday, January 21st, 6:00pm CT, ESPNU

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#128      

Calvin

C
Calvin
TxChief said:
Don't misrepresent me. (I just didn't compare this to Rutgers) But, that's why the NET is a joke (too many GEEKS). You, apparently, and the "system" can continue to be worried about games that a team plays early, flukes, or that are embarrassing, but that's not picking the best 68 for the tourney, if that's what NET and the NCAA is trying to do (I think they would tell you so). It's just a system that some geniuses developed that they thought would create a "'fair" result to analyze the field. But the "system" should not be such that a team obvious playing MUCH better should not be losing ground for playing better to teams they are losing ground to, yet they are beating (Not just Rutgers: Rutgers. Michigan, Purdue, Wisconsin; real results not just you beat them so I can beat you BS). Talking about counter intuitive. FIND a System that Works. Don't just defend a system because it exists. Be a thinker, not a follower. I know it's the system in place, but, as I say, it's a joke.
Duke is 2d in the NET, yet they have two losses at least as bad as Illinois, Clemson and SFA (they are not a juggernaut in spite of Underwood creating their reputation).
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NET is used to group teams, nothing more. I don't know how it's computed, so I'm not going to defend it, but any statistical model is going to have critics. And we've got some bad losses that will be hard to overcomen regardless of the model. In the end, the committee gets very detailed analysis, including KenPom and other metrics, that lets them look at each resume. While they occasionally snub a borderline team or over-value some aspect of a resume, by and large they do a pretty decent job.

Bracketmatrix is my go to at this point in the season, and they have us as a 9 seed...coincidentally, that's almost exactly where NET would indicate we belong. Keep in mind that our schedule gets tougher. That will move us up all other things equal, after a non-conf performance that frankly, was not tournament worthy.
 
#129      

bombayIllini

B
bombayIllini
PU @Home: 71 (O) :: 54 (D)
IL @Away: 61 (O) : 68 (D) {NOTE: 20 point loss to MSU)

We need to impose our will.
 
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#132      

bombayIllini

B
bombayIllini
@ Iowa
@ Rutgers
And maybe @ Penn State

The rest, @ our home, and most of @away, I am confident. @PU and @MI, IMHO, are a done deal.

They will be tight, but, that is how they should be.
 
#133      

kiwanegarris22

K
South Carolina
kiwanegarris22
If the Tuesday spreads prove to be true, we'll drop into a 3-way tie for 3rd place with Wisconsin and Maryland (all at 5-3) by day's end.

However, I still think we have a few road wins left in us! To continue garnering national attention and to keep the positive vibe, we need a win in West Lafayette!!!
 
#134      

ChocolateThunder

C
ChocolateThunder
illini55 said:
Rutgers didn't lose to Miami and Missouri. Who you lose to counts the same as who you beat. Maybe more.
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Missouri has beat Chicago State and Florida, and lost To Kentucky, Alabama Mississippi State, and Tennessee since beating us
Miami has beat Clemson , Coppin State and Pittsburgh ans lost to Duke, Louisville,. NCState and Florida State since beating us.
Not getting much helps on this end it does not appear
 
#135      

Hopingfor500

H
Hopingfor500
This is going to be a tough one. A real tough one. They shoot lights out at that place and the crowd is a heavy, heavy factor. It's one of the true home court advantages in college basketball. There's always hope and there's always a chance, but in removing the O & B glasses and assessing how the conference has done on the road as a whole:

Purdue. 71
Good Guys. 56

If will be a good first half, then Purdue will go on a 10-2, 12-2 run based on open threes and the crowd going bananas. These guys are good.....real good at home.
 
#136      

Ga65

G
Ga65
bredhartmann said:
If you had made that mistake while running a book it would likely have been a very expensive one lol
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Was ready to bet against us. Keep remembering last years thrashing of Minny at home and then losing on the road.
 
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#137      

sbillini

sbillini
st petersburg, fl
sbillini
bombayIllini said:
@ Iowa
@ Rutgers
And maybe @ Penn State

The rest, @ our home, and most of @away, I am confident. @PU and @MI, IMHO, are a done deal.

They will be tight, but, that is how they should be.
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I think many on this board are overlooking @MI. Realize that Livers has been out during their recent challenges (and, btw, their recent challenges have all been on the road - they've held ground at home against PU). It's a different team without him. He's day to day. If he's back and playing like he was pre-injury, I'm not super confident about that one. Toss-up, at best, imo.
 
#138      

Pop'sBlackDog

Pop'sBlackDog
Pop'sBlackDog
Keeping centers and Trent out of foul trouble might prove key. Hopefully our defense keeps Purdue off balance and out of rythym. Defending 3 will be crucial without fouling. We have the personal to compete with anyone if concentration and intensity of last few games is our new standard. Would be an outstanding game for Tevian Jones and or Hamlin to give 10 minutes of solid effort/opportunity to allow maximum effort and intensity from top 8 IMO. You have to think Brad Underwood was counting on one of the bench players to contribute since he took on two transfers, or was he not expecting this good of a season...Beat Purdue for a huge road win and keep on chugging. 64-63 Illinois as we muddy this one up and win on a Tevian Jones dunk on an inbounds steal...!!! Slap the floor men, going to be a war....I...L...L...
 
#140      

Pop'sBlackDog

Pop'sBlackDog
Pop'sBlackDog
Illinois straight up to get the odds and Illinois +5.5 with the points to help if lose a close game, If available would parley those two as well and maybe half time. if Ill loses by more than 5...going to be sad and not worried about a few bucks haha.
 
#141      

Truffaut

T
Truffaut
Pop'sBlackDog said:
Keeping centers and Trent out of foul trouble might prove key. Hopefully our defense keeps Purdue off balance and out of rythym. Defending 3 will be crucial without fouling. We have the personal to compete with anyone if concentration and intensity of last few games is our new standard. Would be an outstanding game for Tevian Jones and or Hamlin to give 10 minutes of solid effort/opportunity to allow maximum effort and intensity from top 8 IMO. You have to think Brad Underwood was counting on one of the bench players to contribute since he took on two transfers, or was he not expecting this good of a season...Beat Purdue for a huge road win and keep on chugging. 64-63 Illinois as we muddy this one up and win on a Tevian Jones dunk on an inbounds steal...!!! Slap the floor men, going to be a war....I...L...L...
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Tevian on the floor with the game on the line?
 
#143      

Pop'sBlackDog

Pop'sBlackDog
Pop'sBlackDog
Truffaut said:
Tevian on the floor with the game on the line?
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It could happen ... I kind of miss the old center windmilling the inbounds pass...would def be dramatic...IF we were to win on an inbound steal dunk who would you think would be a more obvious candidate? Giorgi I suppose...to answer my own question...anyway enjoy the game...I...L...L...
 
#144      

skyIdub

skyIdub
Winged Warrior
skyIdub
Win or lose....Illinois basketball is relevant again! REJOICE!

AG with a dagger inside the last minute!

ILL-62
Pu-60
 
#145      

BlindLoyalty

B
FartNoiseMotivation
BlindLoyalty
Purdue does not win on the road (they might win 2 this season). If they have any hope of making the tournament, this (and every remaining home game ) is a must win. 2009 was the last time Illinois won at Mackey. Purdue has played 2 ranked opponents at home this season and won by 29 both times—the team and crowd get motivated for these games (particularly after the historic defeat). This game is a great opportunity for Illinois to steal a road win, but a loss really doesn’t alter the tournament trajectory significantly. I think a double digit loss is likely, I hope everyone stays healthy. Go Illini.
 
#146      

IllinistuckinGopherland

IllinistuckinGopherland
IllinistuckinGopherland
The top 12 in the conference (not NW or Neb) are winning over 90% of their home games. We are seeing less than one road win per week in the whole league when you exclude the bottom two.

We should be thrilled if we win one of two this week.
 
#147      

FeelYourPaign

FeelYourPaign
So Cal
FeelYourPaign
TCTORNADO said:
KenPom has us going 1-7 over the next 8 games, BTW, I hope you are not disappointed but Vegas won't have the Purdue game as 2 to 3 points. Bart Torvik has us going 2-6 over next 8 games. I sure hope both guys are way off.
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Ken Pom actually has us going 3-5 over next 8 games. Favored in only one game, but with a chance in every game. Add up the win percentages and you get 3-5. Just because you are the underdog does not mean that you have to lose
 
#148      

mhuml32

mhuml32
Cincinnati, OH
mhuml32
BlindLoyalty said:
Purdue does not win on the road (they might win 2 this season). If they have any hope of making the tournament, this (and every remaining home game ) is a must win. 2009 was the last time Illinois won at Mackey. Purdue has played 2 ranked opponents at home this season and won by 29 both times—the team and crowd get motivated for these games (particularly after the historic defeat). This game is a great opportunity for Illinois to steal a road win, but a loss really doesn’t alter the tournament trajectory significantly. I think a double digit loss is likely, I hope everyone stays healthy. Go Illini.
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Actually 2008 by two days ;).
 
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