Yeah, but how do they set the initial odds for Game 1?
Oh. I understand the question better. It’s still about the money. They have people who bet as soon as the schedule comes out (albeit not very many).
People make these early bets to get a line that they like. So, Vegas adjusts early. So, it’s a moving target from the minute the schedule comes out.
This is how book makers get most of their money (early lines they feel are lopsided).
Once upon a time, there weren't many reputable sportsbooks out there. So there was a lot more consistency from one sportsbook to the next. But today, there are so many of them that it's not uncommon for betting lines to differ from one sportsbook to the next. One might be offering the Patriots -1 in Super XLIX, while another has the game as a pick 'em and another has the Seahawks -1. But there's quite a bit of copycatting that goes on within the sports gambling industry. So while there are some differences from sportsbook to sportsbook, there's not as many as you'd think and sportsbooks routinely keep an eye on other sportsbook in order to make sure that their lines aren't too different from all the rest.
To think like an oddsmaker, though, you need to first know how he sets his numbers. The initial line, also known as an “overnight line” or “opening line,” is an educated guess of a starting point that oddsmakers believe will get equal action from bettors on both sides. Oddsmakers are often the brightest minds in the sportsbook and know all about the public perception of teams along with key statistics bettors use to make their picks.
So, essentially, they make an initial guess.