Pregame: Illinois vs Maryland, Friday, February 7th, 7:00pm CT, FS1

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#26
Also hope that Maryland beating Rutgers is the start of a slump for Rutgers. Right now, our game at the RAC looks like the toughest of our remaining regular season game. We need them to revert to their mean.
 
Likes: philcon
#30
A few things I'd like to see regarding our Offensive scheme:

1. Continue taking it inside. Illinois has taken 234 out of 637 shots (36.7%) in conference play from the "close 2" or dunk range per Barttorvik. Illinois has converted on 63.2% of those shot attempts which equates to 1.26 points per shot taken. Factoring in that close 2s are more likely to generate contact and get the shooter to the free throw line and I'd love to see Illinois increase their focus on getting the ball deep inside.

2. When we can't take it inside let Ayo, Trent, Feliz, and Griffin shoot the 3 ball. These 4 have converted 49 of 143 3pt attempts (34.3%). Definitely not the strongest 3 point shooting team but it's enough for 1.028 points per shot and is the only other relatively efficient option Illinois has to spread the defense when they're denying the paint.

3. Stop taking bad shots.

3a. Kofi
is 8 of 40 from 'far 2' since he is struggling to back down his defender and get in closer to the rim and is then settling for a terrible shot. Kofi needs to either develop a turn around jumper, find some fancy footwork/finger roll to get to the rim, or learn to pass it back out to the perimeter.
3b. Kipper is shooting 65% inside but less than 18% from everywhere else. Kipper is taking 2.55 shots per game from 'far 2' or 3 and those 2.55 shots are resulting in an average of 1 point (0.39 points per shot).
3c. Da'Monte is averaging 0.11 points per shot and is 0 of 14 from 3 and 1 of 4 from 2. He's gotta cure his yips because he's missing wide open shots, sometimes by a few feet. Don't need him to be a huge scorer but he's gotta at least put up 0.5 points per shot.
3d. Giorgi is shooting 4 of 19 from 3 (21.1%). It's almost time to give him the red light. If he made his next 3 in a row he'd be 7/22 (32%) so I'm still okay with him taking the wide open shot if we're in good rebounding position.

3.64 per game from Kofi away from the rim (~0.4 points per shot)
2.55 per game from Kipper away from the rim (~0.39 points per shot)
1.73 per game from Giorgi from 3 (~0.63 points per shot)
1.64 per game from Da'Monte anywhere on the court (~0.11 points per shot)

That's an average of 9.56 inefficient shots per game resulting in only 3.72 points (0.389 points per shot). If we can convert those at ~0.92 points per shot (our next weakest shooter is Giorgi without his 3's or Kofi at 0.92 pt/shot) that'd be an extra 5 points per game. Whether that means these players improve their shot, or we take the extra pass to find a different look, there's room for improvement on shot selection and/or ability to finish.

3e. The whole team is shooting poorly from 'far 2' range. This is partially from getting fouled while driving (most of the time this is a missed shot from further) or from guards shooting a 3 with their toes on the line, but mostly this is just inefficient shot selection / settling for a bad shot.

As a team Illinois is shooting ~21.5 shots per game from 'far 2' and converting just 0.68 points per shot (ignoring free throws). If those shots were converted at a rate of 0.92 points per shot through better shot selection and/or ability to finish, Illinois would score an extra 5.16 points per game. There's some overlap between 3a-3d and 3e but even so there's at least another 7-10 points on the table in each game with some smarter / better play.

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#31
Little Rock, Arkansas
I wish we could find a way to run some plays that get Damonte a layup. I feel like watching the ball go in the hole once or twice cures the “I’m not confident in my shot and I don’t want to waste a possession so I’ll pass out of a wide open shot or be forced to shoot and miss horribly” mentality.

There was one point in the 2nd half of the Iowa game that Damonte flashed to the middle, got the ball WIDE OPEN (seriously, nobody within about 5 feet) and then didn’t shoot and passed out. I can’t remember if we scored that possession, but him flashing to the middle did nothing to beat the zone because nobody came in to guard him.

Damonte has come along so far with his D and rebounding, if we could just get him back to a point where he doesn’t pass up wide open shots, I think he will see a few go in.

And back to the original point, if we ran a few plays that got him the easiest of easy shots, and he made them, I feel like the pressure would be off and he would just shoot the ball as opposed to thinking about shooting the ball.

I know it works for me when I get self conscious about my shot in pick-up games. Maybe it’ll work for DMW??
 
#32
The whole team is shooting poorly from 'far 2' range
7-1 in the last 8 games.

BU is, perhaps, the most statistically oriented coach out there in the B10. BU has more numbers than numbers has numbers.

IMHO, this is not the time to make changes. We have a horse to ride, ride it. Do not change horses now.
 
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#34
South Carolina
7-1 in the last 8 games.

BU is, perhaps, the most statistically oriented coach out there in the B10. BU has more numbers than numbers has numbers.

IMHO, this is not the time to make changes. We have a horse to ride, ride it. Do not change horses now.
How about 8-1 in the last 9 games of the regular season? And then 8-1 in the following nine games? Close out the national championship run 16-2; 23-3!!
 
#36
71-63 ILLINI win, Cowan is checked by the Frazier/Feliz, Smith is going to take some pounding from Kofi, Giorgi I suspect will have a big game and Ayo will make some late run/shots for us.
 
#37
I wish we could find a way to run some plays that get Damonte a layup. I feel like watching the ball go in the hole once or twice cures the “I’m not confident in my shot and I don’t want to waste a possession so I’ll pass out of a wide open shot or be forced to shoot and miss horribly” mentality.

There was one point in the 2nd half of the Iowa game that Damonte flashed to the middle, got the ball WIDE OPEN (seriously, nobody within about 5 feet) and then didn’t shoot and passed out. I can’t remember if we scored that possession, but him flashing to the middle did nothing to beat the zone because nobody came in to guard him.

Damonte has come along so far with his D and rebounding, if we could just get him back to a point where he doesn’t pass up wide open shots, I think he will see a few go in.

And back to the original point, if we ran a few plays that got him the easiest of easy shots, and he made them, I feel like the pressure would be off and he would just shoot the ball as opposed to thinking about shooting the ball.

I know it works for me when I get self conscious about my shot in pick-up games. Maybe it’ll work for DMW??
At this point Damonte is what he is. Don't forget every time Damonte takes a shot it takes away an opportunity for someone else. Would you rather have Damonte take an uncontested jumper or Trent take a contested one? I'm picking Trent 10 times out of 10. Almost nobody has 8+ guys who are confident on offense and defense.

Like BU said a countless number of times....Damonte knows his role and plays it well. Play lock down D, rebound, don't turn the ball over, and let the other guys take the shots.
 
#39
Forgottonia
Extra days off at this juncture of the B1G schedule is not a bad thing, this whole league is physical, a man's league. May hurt us again come March though, usually the B1G defensive pressure/physicality doesn't always play well with refs in NCAA tourney.
I have the same concern. Way back when the B10 was a black and blue league it hurt us in the NCAA’s. We got away from that, but for some reason they are moving that direction again. Officials from other conferences may not like that style of play. Problem is you won’t know that until you are already in trouble.

We’ve got the bodys to play that style of game right now, but I‘m not a big fan of it.
 
#40
Plano, TX
IL 65-58. The last time that I predicated a score I didn't get it correct but I DID get the differential correct (which was 8 in that game). This will be a physical game. For the most part this year I think the B10 refs have allowed games to be physical and not call ticky tack fouls. Iowa was a physical game. IMO this will be even more so with not necessarily more talented players but more athletic players. Cockburn HAS to start squeezing passes that come into him as well as squeezing rebounds. Too many balls seem to bounce around after he touches it. We can't give away opportunities. Squeeze the damn ball...don't bring it down below your waste and dunk the damn thing! The one thing that MD has in common with IA is they mainly have three good players that you have to stop. After those three there is a monster drop off in talent. We are deeper than them and have more people that can score. However we also had that advantage against IA and it didn't work out. IA also shot over 43% from three. MD can't do that. If they do...we're in trouble. I don't think that they will.
 
#41
A few things I'd like to see regarding our Offensive scheme:

1. Continue taking it inside. Illinois has taken 234 out of 637 shots (36.7%) in conference play from the "close 2" or dunk range per Barttorvik. Illinois has converted on 63.2% of those shot attempts which equates to 1.26 points per shot taken. Factoring in that close 2s are more likely to generate contact and get the shooter to the free throw line and I'd love to see Illinois increase their focus on getting the ball deep inside.

2. When we can't take it inside let Ayo, Trent, Feliz, and Griffin shoot the 3 ball. These 4 have converted 49 of 143 3pt attempts (34.3%). Definitely not the strongest 3 point shooting team but it's enough for 1.028 points per shot and is the only other relatively efficient option Illinois has to spread the defense when they're denying the paint.

3. Stop taking bad shots.

3a. Kofi
is 8 of 40 from 'far 2' since he is struggling to back down his defender and get in closer to the rim and is then settling for a terrible shot. Kofi needs to either develop a turn around jumper, find some fancy footwork/finger roll to get to the rim, or learn to pass it back out to the perimeter.
3b. Kipper is shooting 65% inside but less than 18% from everywhere else. Kipper is taking 2.55 shots per game from 'far 2' or 3 and those 2.55 shots are resulting in an average of 1 point (0.39 points per shot).
3c. Da'Monte is averaging 0.11 points per shot and is 0 of 14 from 3 and 1 of 4 from 2. He's gotta cure his yips because he's missing wide open shots, sometimes by a few feet. Don't need him to be a huge scorer but he's gotta at least put up 0.5 points per shot.
3d. Giorgi is shooting 4 of 19 from 3 (21.1%). It's almost time to give him the red light. If he made his next 3 in a row he'd be 7/22 (32%) so I'm still okay with him taking the wide open shot if we're in good rebounding position.

3.64 per game from Kofi away from the rim (~0.4 points per shot)
2.55 per game from Kipper away from the rim (~0.39 points per shot)
1.73 per game from Giorgi from 3 (~0.63 points per shot)
1.64 per game from Da'Monte anywhere on the court (~0.11 points per shot)

That's an average of 9.56 inefficient shots per game resulting in only 3.72 points (0.389 points per shot). If we can convert those at ~0.92 points per shot (our next weakest shooter is Giorgi without his 3's or Kofi at 0.92 pt/shot) that'd be an extra 5 points per game. Whether that means these players improve their shot, or we take the extra pass to find a different look, there's room for improvement on shot selection and/or ability to finish.

3e. The whole team is shooting poorly from 'far 2' range. This is partially from getting fouled while driving (most of the time this is a missed shot from further) or from guards shooting a 3 with their toes on the line, but mostly this is just inefficient shot selection / settling for a bad shot.

As a team Illinois is shooting ~21.5 shots per game from 'far 2' and converting just 0.68 points per shot (ignoring free throws). If those shots were converted at a rate of 0.92 points per shot through better shot selection and/or ability to finish, Illinois would score an extra 5.16 points per game. There's some overlap between 3a-3d and 3e but even so there's at least another 7-10 points on the table in each game with some smarter / better play.

View attachment 5626
Does the model control for long 2s that are taken at the end of the shot clock/game clock? basically shots were forced to take?
 
Likes: KevinC
#43
T-rank's adjusted stats say Maryland's offense has actually been slightly better on the road. It's on the defensive end where they have struggled. Great defensive team at home but not so much on the road.

As for us, our home offense is second to last in conference play. Luckily our defense is number 1. I swear there is something up with our rims. Seems like a lot of bunnies roll off the rim for both teams.
 
#44
In B10 play, IL has been a "tough" team, grit, determination. That is not captured in any numbers. Even at Iowa, we could have pulled it out - if not for a lapse. MD managed to out-grit us at their place. That was corrected - until @ Iowa. I for one think the situation will be corrected. The players and coaches are on the same page. It is all about execution and it is very difficult to be consistent for anyone. And, most of all, it cannot be captured in numbers.

IMVVHO, this is a very special season.
 
#45
Captain 'Paign
Phoenix, AZ
T-rank's adjusted stats say Maryland's offense has actually been slightly better on the road. It's on the defensive end where they have struggled. Great defensive team at home but not so much on the road.

As for us, our home offense is second to last in conference play. Luckily our defense is number 1. I swear there is something up with our rims. Seems like a lot of bunnies roll off the rim for both teams.
Yeah. For some reason the Purdue game at SFC is the only game it seems we really had it rolling offensively at home. Aside from that it's seemingly been a long time since we really had a great game shooting at our own place. Weird.
 
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#46
The B1G named Anthony Cowan as B!G POW. The week before the award went to Jalen Smith. Interestingly, Franz Wagner got the FOW.
 
#47
Professional Social Distancer
Virginia
I wish we could find a way to run some plays that get Damonte a layup. I feel like watching the ball go in the hole once or twice cures the “I’m not confident in my shot and I don’t want to waste a possession so I’ll pass out of a wide open shot or be forced to shoot and miss horribly” mentality.

There was one point in the 2nd half of the Iowa game that Damonte flashed to the middle, got the ball WIDE OPEN (seriously, nobody within about 5 feet) and then didn’t shoot and passed out. I can’t remember if we scored that possession, but him flashing to the middle did nothing to beat the zone because nobody came in to guard him.

Damonte has come along so far with his D and rebounding, if we could just get him back to a point where he doesn’t pass up wide open shots, I think he will see a few go in.

And back to the original point, if we ran a few plays that got him the easiest of easy shots, and he made them, I feel like the pressure would be off and he would just shoot the ball as opposed to thinking about shooting the ball.

I know it works for me when I get self conscious about my shot in pick-up games. Maybe it’ll work for DMW??
DMW should be able to get the dump off pass from Kofi in the lane that AF seems to find. Teams double Kofi off DMW - he stands near the 3pt line (as no threat) when he really should cut to an open lane area.
 
#48
DMW should be able to get the dump off pass from Kofi in the lane that AF seems to find. Teams double Kofi off DMW - he stands near the 3pt line (as no threat) when he really should cut to an open lane area.
Great point. That would be a perfect way to get DMW rolling. I still think the kid is going to have a breakout game some time this year. A few easy buckets early, then hit a couple 3's. BOOM. He gets some confidence. I'd love to see that happen.
 
#50
We have to stop Cowan. I believe the crowd will be super pumped for the game. A Friday night on campus with a good Md team playing should be a rocking place. Would love to see Ayo take over the game like he did in the previous games. If you notice when he has a bigger player on him he doesn't go off like he did against Mi. Can't wait till Friday.
 
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