Pregame: Illinois vs Minnesota, Saturday, November 3rd, 2:30pm CT, BTN

[Fighter of the Nightman]

By the end of this week, I will have myself expecting a better showing in this game. I want to see some consistent fight and passion this game. Not just the 3-0 start they had against Maryland - that energy level maintained throughout the game. Roll with the punches and punch back like the 2-10 2006 team often did. I want a win and think one is possible, but I really just want to see the Fighting Illini.

This x1,000. I was talking with my dad the other day ... we are NOT asking much out of the University of Illinois. Forgetting for a second we are the flagship university of the fifth largest state in the country with plenty of recruits in our backyard, a massive alumni base, a great academic reputation, highly ranked college town and various historical legends to tout ... that stuff speaks to our longterm potential, not any short term expectations. I just want to have some pride. It's not like we're accustomed to bowl games, I am fine with having a losing record. However, I just want every team to see Illinois on the schedule and know that they're in for a fight to the end. They might beat us, maybe even by a lot, but the FIGHTING Illini will give them hell.

We are so depressingly far from that most basic of expectations of a Big Ten football team. It's sad. I will be pleased if I see it on Saturday (and a win might even get me back to unrealistic and delusional positivity), but I have lost faith for now. Please prove me wrong, boys! Right now, my prediction is a 34-10 loss.

 

[Illini4727]

That's a surprising line based on the recent performances of both teams. But Vegas always knows, we'll see.

Maybe that's the line for the first 5 minutes. Ouch.

I won't bet against my team, but if anyone asks me.....

 

[breadman]

That's a surprising line based on the recent performances of both teams. But Vegas always knows, we'll see.

I don't know. Look how wrong Vegas was against Maryland!

 

[Dan]

Illinois-Minnesota Nov. 3rd: Saturday’s matchup pits the two youngest teams in the nation depending on what metric is used. Illinois has the highest percentage of underclassmen in the nation (76.5%), while Minnesota has the highest percentage of freshmen in the nation (51.7%).
https://twitter.com/IlliniStats/


Illinois-Nebraska Nov. 10th game time won't be announced until this weekend via

 

[Dan]

Game Notes

BTN: Brandon Gaudin, James Laurinaitis & Elise Menaker

https://fightingillini.com/news/2018/10/28/football-game-week-illinois-vs-minnesota.aspx

Wrestling Announces "Grapple in the Grove" Versus Missouri

The dual will begin at 12:30 p.m. on the south end of Grange Grove

https://fightingillini.com/news/201...ces-grapple-in-the-grove-versus-missouri.aspx

Lovie Smith press conference
https://twitter.com/srrichey

Lovie: I've known Hardy Nickerson since 1996. Our relationship is more than just coaches working together. Whenever someone leaves the program, it's tough. Hardy came in yesterday morning and resigned his position for personal reasons. #Illini

Lovie: It's a tough day, tough time for our program. #Illini

Lovie: We're not satisfied with a lot of things with our program. #Illini

Lovie: There always has to be another plan when things go wrong or go a different direction. ... I've been involved with the defense. I'll call plays defensively this week. We'll move Rob Wright (now a defensive analyst) will move into the linebacker role. #Illini

Lovie: Injury wise, we had a couple injuries (at Maryland) and a few guys that didn't finish the game. We haven't practiced yet. As the week goes along, we'll try to let you know more about that. #Illini

Lovie: I feel comfortable (calling defensive plays). We feel like we have a plan to handle that. #Illini

Lovie: Where we are, everything is short term. This week is just about Minnesota and us putting everybody in the best position for us to have success this week. #Illini

Lovie: We know what (Minnesota) is going through playing so many young players. We're both going through some growing pains. It's late in the season now. It's time for young players to make fewer young player mistakes. #Illini

Lovie: Right now nothing has changed (with M.J. Rivers' in concussion protocol). We'll know more tomorrow. #Illini

Lovie: I have talked to (Lere Oladipo). It's about the charge. That's all we know. #Illini

Lovie: I have nothing to do with (Lere Oladipo situation). I talked to Lere just as one of our players. From there he's going through the system. #Illini

Lovie: We're constantly talking to our guys about doing what's right. Do people step outside from time to time and do what they shouldn't? Yes, but if they do there's consequences. #Illini

 

[ChiefGritty]

The F/+ ratings have updated for this week.

We've fallen to 122nd in the country, -44.2%, no better than last year when we were -45.5% (the idea is it's the percentage better or worse than an "average" FBS team. The nearest teams to that hypothetical median currently are Memphis and Vanderbilt)

There are only 8 worse teams in the nation. Two of them are Kent State and Rutgers.

Minnesota is 57th at +7.1%
Nebraska is 62nd at +5.2%
Iowa is 16th at +39.8%
Northwestern is 47th at +18.4%

The next two weeks are probably our best shot at another win.

 

[Ramrod2010]

I had a pretty positive post after the PSU game. Well that person is long dead. We are going to get waxed on Saturday.

 

[OrangeSoda]

Why do I still think this is a winnable game? Somebody send help.

 

[ILL_INI]

From the Pioneer Press' Twin Cities website. I'm not sure if Lovie would go for it on the opponent's 34 yard line (field goal), let alone his own.

GO-FOR-IT MENTALITY
Trailing Indiana 9-7 in the second quarter, a Gophers drive stalled and they faced fourth-and-1 at their own 34-yard line. Instead of punting, Fleck decided to go for it.

“I just felt like we had to be aggressive,” he said. “At the time you’re an 0-4 football team in the Big Ten, and you’ve got to show your team, ‘We’re going to be aggressive and go win the football game.’ ”

After a timeout, wildcat quarterback Seth Green converted for a 1-yard gain, and 10 plays later, Morgan threw a touchdown pass to put the Gophers up 14-7.

“They have to start developing that (aggressive) mentality earlier,” Fleck said. “Whatever you want to develop in your children at a young age, you start developing early. It’s the same thing here.

“It was a half-a-yard. I felt like we could get it. I felt like we could get good push up front, and we did. We got it by a yard. After that, we started rolling on offense a little more.”

twincities.com

 

[ILL_INI]

This might be a trap game for MN. Theyre probably looking ahead to a tough matchup against Purdue next week. I would say Love should be able to keep this within two scores.

They are 1-4 in conference play. I don't think they are looking past anyone.

 

[bombayIllini]

Forget the score (though it is imp), how many yards do we give up?

 

[oldschool51]

Even if we lose by 20 plus i want no part of Fleck he is a tool to the 10th degree

 

[EyeoftheIllini]

Close, high scoring game, but our Illini come up short 36-31.

 

[ChiefGritty]

Minny -9.5 seems like such a lock that surely this will be our best performance of the year. Vegas always knows.

 

[Illinir1]

Question for the group: With our defense being as bad as it is (535 yds. allowed per game average), why does Rod Smith (and Lovie) go with no-huddle, up-tempo offense? It's very frustrating to see the offense go hurry-up, have a three-and-out, and send the defense back onto the field after burning like 1 minute of clock time. I would think you'd go huddle and use a large portion of the play clock on every play where the game clock is running. I'll hang up and listen to answers.

 

[ChiefGritty]

Question for the group: With our defense being as bad as it is (535 yds. allowed per game average), why does Rod Smith (and Lovie) go with no-huddle, up-tempo offense? It's very frustrating to see the offense go hurry-up, have a three-and-out, and send the defense back onto the field after burning like 1 minute of clock time. I would think you'd go huddle and use a large portion of the play clock on every play where the game clock is running. I'll hang up and listen to answers.

The short answer is that we don't. We're 85th in the country in plays per game.

I actually think we've managed the play clock pretty smartly, generally giving the defense time to catch their breath but also strategically pushing the tempo in down and distance scenarios where we have the advantage.

 

[Dan]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1058371800382533632

 

[Illinir1]

The short answer is that we don't. We're 85th in the country in plays per game.

I actually think we've managed the play clock pretty smartly, generally giving the defense time to catch their breath but also strategically pushing the tempo in down and distance scenarios where we have the advantage.

We may be 85th in the country in plays per game, but we're 107th in the country in time of possession. And that's with an offense that is 23rd in the nation rushing and 115th passing. That's not taking advantage of running the clock to keep the defense on the sidelines.

 

[ChiefGritty]

We may be 85th in the country in plays per game, but we're 107th in the country in time of possession. And that's with an offense that is 23rd in the nation rushing and 115th passing. That's not taking advantage of running the clock to keep the defense on the sidelines.

Well, we're certainly not clock milking. Maybe that would help, but it also might damage our effectiveness running the ball.

There haven't been many scenarios where the defense gives up a long drive and then we 3-and-out in like 45 seconds. I was worried about that going into the season, but we've successfully avoided that for the most part.

 

[Soxfreak64]

We may be 85th in the country in plays per game, but we're 107th in the country in time of possession. And that's with an offense that is 23rd in the nation rushing and 115th passing. That's not taking advantage of running the clock to keep the defense on the sidelines.

You can blame a fair amount of offensive explosion and a terrible 3rd down conversion rate for the TOP numbers. This team either breaks a 40-yd TD run or goes 3 and out. Not great for TOP numbers.

 

[ChiefIllini]

Similar to what others said, we need to be running 2/3rds of the time. I mean on at least 80% of the possessions, we need to run on first and second down. Heck, anything 3rd and 4 or shorter needs to have heavy consideration for a run play as well. The clock will never be our friend in these games with a defense like we have, it needs to stop very rarely.

 

[KevinC]

Similar to what others said, we need to be running 2/3rds of the time. I mean on at least 80% of the possessions, we need to run on first and second down. Heck, anything 3rd and 4 or shorter needs to have heavy consideration for a run play as well. The clock will never be our friend in these games with a defense like we have, it needs to stop very rarely.

Yes, lets keep trying to run against 8 and 9 man fronts. For the 1st 3 quarters, we do run 2/3s of the time. Maybe even more. It is when we are playing catch up that we tend to throw more. Sometime (like against Purdue) we don't even throw it when we are down a lot in the 2nd and 3rd quarters. I actually don't see the advantage in making the game shorter when we are down by 20 or 30. We are young and need experience. There is not much difference in losing by 40 rather than 30. If you just want to run the ball, please go cheer for Wisconsin.

 

[ChiefIllini]

Yes, lets keep trying to run against 8 and 9 man fronts. For the 1st 3 quarters, we do run 2/3s of the time. Maybe even more. It is when we are playing catch up that we tend to throw more. Sometime (like against Purdue) we don't even throw it when we are down a lot in the 2nd and 3rd quarters. I actually don't see the advantage in making the game shorter when we are down by 20 or 30. We are young and need experience. There is not much difference in losing by 40 rather than 30. If you just want to run the ball, please go cheer for Wisconsin.

My favorite part about this whole comment is the part about Wisconsin. You literally proved my point that a team can succeed if they play to their strengths. If we became what Wisconsin is, I would be more than overjoyed. We obviously don't have what it takes to pass the ball continuously and successfully, please, enlighten me if you've seen something different. Our WRs drop catchable balls, can't get separation if their lives depended on it, and very few have break away speed and our QBs are at best moderately inaccurate, not to even mention our pass protection (which admittedly isn't bottom of the barrel bad anymore, but pretty darn close.)

So why don't we throw more when we are down early? We literally can't. Well, we can, but the ball doesn't move. We have to run the ball. Obviously I dont know the advanced statistics, but just from watching the games, we do get decent runs against stacked boxes, at least some of the time. Our pass plays only look good in the forth quarter--when we are playing 2/3/4th string defenses. If we could pass, we would.

 

[Fighter of the Nightman]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1058371800382533632

One of the comments says all we need are the white pants and we would have the Bears. If only.

 

[KevinC]

My favorite part about this whole comment is the part about Wisconsin. You literally proved my point that a team can succeed if they play to their strengths. If we became what Wisconsin is, I would be more than overjoyed. We obviously don't have what it takes to pass the ball continuously and successfully, please, enlighten me if you've seen something different. Our WRs drop catchable balls, can't get separation if their lives depended on it, and very few have break away speed and our QBs are at best moderately inaccurate, not to even mention our pass protection (which admittedly isn't bottom of the barrel bad anymore, but pretty darn close.)

So why don't we throw more when we are down early? We literally can't. Well, we can, but the ball doesn't move. We have to run the ball. Obviously I dont know the advanced statistics, but just from watching the games, we do get decent runs against stacked boxes, at least some of the time. Our pass plays only look good in the forth quarter--when we are playing 2/3/4th string defenses. If we could pass, we would.

As I said, we are already running it at least 2/3 of the time. You want to run it even more. You don't want to continuously to go 3 and out but, that is what you are requesting us to do. If you want Lovie to build a running offense, you need to let the young guys on the line get older, stronger,and more experienced. Next year would be a good time for that to start happening on both lines. Until than, please cheer for WI.