Pregame: Illinois vs Northwestern, Saturday, January 18th, 4:00pm CT, BTN

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#30
South Carolina
In looking at the remaining 14 games, I break them into three distinct groups: First 4 = all winnable (3-1 would be great given the two tough road games); Middle 5 = all lose-able and our toughest stretch (2-3 would be satisfactory); Final 5 = all winnable (I'd settle for 3-2). 8-6 the rest of the way, combined with 12-5 so far leaves us at:

20-11 Regular Season
12- 8 Conference

1-1 in the Big 10 tournament and we enter the Dance at 21-12 with some high quality wins. Gotta beat NW at home. Go Illini!!
 
#31
Just North of the Southern border!
7 home games. 6 are winnable. Could win all 7.
7 away games. 3 we must win at a min, 4 probable,6 possible. (based mostly on our D. I expect it to mature even more.)


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#32
7 away games. 3 we must win at a min, 4 probable,6 possible.
Which 4 road games do you think are probable? I know you are a stats guy and am curious.

I’m not as optimistic. After NW at home I just hope to win 6 of the last 13. That would put us at 18 wins not counting Lindenwood. At 18-12 would probably need to win one in the BTT to feel a little better.
 
#33
Which 4 road games do you think are probable? I know you are a stats guy and am curious.

I’m not as optimistic. After NW at home I just hope to win 6 of the last 13. That would put us at 18 wins not counting Lindenwood. At 18-12 would probably need to win one in the BTT to feel a little better.
I'm a little pessimistic like you. I can see us going 7 and 7 here on out. losing to Iowa and/or Mich and MSU at home and winning NW and one other on road. That leaves us at 19 and 12 and hopefully we can get 1 in BTN tournament and squeak in to NCAA tourney. I think we can go 8 and 6 or better if we play consistently tough like last 3 games.
 
#34
We have played 5 of the top 6 B1G defenses, according to Trank. And Michigan is 9th. So our offense is doing ok given the circumstances.

Northwestern is not good defensively. I'll be happy with a win regardless, but it would be nice to put up 75+ for a change. And maybe give us some confidence.
75 is going to be a challenge in any B1G game. 8 B1G teams played today and the highest scoring team was IU with 66.
 
#35
I'm a little pessimistic like you. I can see us going 7 and 7 here on out. losing to Iowa and/or Mich and MSU at home and winning NW and one other on road. That leaves us at 19 and 12 and hopefully we can get 1 in BTN tournament and squeak in to NCAA tourney. I think we can go 8 and 6 or better if we play consistently tough like last 3 games.
If we go 11-9 in the B1G, I can't believe that we won't be dancing. Think 10-10 will be the bubble (there could be 4-6 teams tied with that record), and we are likely on the wrong side, without a win in the conf. tourney against a tourney team.

FYI Bartovik has us projected at 11-9 in a 4 way tie for third in the B1G. along with Mich, OSU, and Wisc. Rutgers is projected in 2nd and MSU first. He also has 12 B1G teams as having a 50% or better chance of making the tourney at this point.
http://barttorvik.com/conf.php?conf=B10
 
#36
I think we've turned the corner. We may have some misfiring cylinders, and around the corner is still a large hill.....but the end of the last two games have shown what this team is becoming. Relentless.

With the defense we've shown in the last three games, we have a very real chance to win every single game remaining. Of course we won't, but I genuinely feel after watching us throw up bricks...and still closing....we know how to win now.

Illini - 69
Kittens -48
 
#37
Atlanta, GA
In looking at the remaining 14 games, I break them into three distinct groups: First 4 = all winnable (3-1 would be great given the two tough road games); Middle 5 = all lose-able and our toughest stretch (2-3 would be satisfactory); Final 5 = all winnable (I'd settle for 3-2). 8-6 the rest of the way, combined with 12-5 so far leaves us at:

20-11 Regular Season
12- 8 Conference

1-1 in the Big 10 tournament and we enter the Dance at 21-12 with some high quality wins. Gotta beat NW at home. Go Illini!!
Pretty much exactly how I see it as well.

18 wins if we totally collapse

20 wins if we play how we have the last couple weeks

22 wins if we really start clicking

Plus a B1G tournament win

6 seed in the big dance :)
 
#39
I'm a little pessimistic like you. I can see us going 7 and 7 here on out. losing to Iowa and/or Mich and MSU at home and winning NW and one other on road. That leaves us at 19 and 12 and hopefully we can get 1 in BTN tournament and squeak in to NCAA tourney. I think we can go 8 and 6 or better if we play consistently tough like last 3 games.
I predicted 22 wins before the season started and don't see any reason to change that now. Go Illini!
 
#40
Michigan
I think we're bound to have a letdown at some point, just don't know when or how long. Remember, we put together a nice stretch last February before folding up shop with a solitary win in the last 6 regular season games. This team is better, and they're being rewarded for their effort with a tournament level resume. I hope that keeps them going.

KenPom would say we're going to be heavily favored at home. I'd expect the line to be around 12.5 points.
 
#41
Pretty much exactly how I see it as well.

18 wins if we totally collapse

20 wins if we play how we have the last couple weeks

22 wins if we really start clicking

Plus a B1G tournament win

6 seed in the big dance :)
The bummer is if we took care of business at Mizzou and against Miami....we would all probably be making notional travel plans to a tourney site. Because your 6 and 8 "collapse" would still probably get us in tourney if we had Mizzou/Miami victories under our belts now.

All that said, I'd rather look ugly early and grow through it...hopefully we look back at Mizzou and Miami as growth opportunities and we learned and got better from it.

On a side note...curious if anyone knows last time we had 4 game winning streak in Jan (I'm presuming we handle the cats)?
 
#42
7 home games. 6 are winnable. Could win all 7.
7 away games. 3 we must win at a min, 4 probable,6 possible. (based mostly on our D. I expect it to mature even more.)


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Why do you think we need to win 3 away games? Win 5 at home and 2 on the road gets us to 11-9. Win 6 at home and we only need to win 1 road game. Or win 7 and go win-less on the road.
 
#44
just checked Kenpom we are up to 27, i guess Wisc and mizzou win help bc we were 31 last night
 
#46
I think we've turned the corner. We may have some misfiring cylinders, and around the corner is still a large hill.....but the end of the last two games have shown what this team is becoming. Relentless.

With the defense we've shown in the last three games, we have a very real chance to win every single game remaining. Of course we won't, but I genuinely feel after watching us throw up bricks...and still closing....we know how to win now.

Illini - 69
Kittens -48
I also think we have turned the corner but with one huge asterisk. This team would not have lost to Miami or given up the lead at Maryland but at crunch time, the last 5-7 minutes, this team lately has been 1 junior, 3 sophomores and one freshman playing big minutes together. This is still a young team that has enjoyed limited success so far and is still learning how to win.
 
#48
Friday nights matchup of Wisconsin at MSU is going to be must-watch TV, given where all 3 teams are sitting in the conference standings right now.
 
#50
Hate a week off the way we’re rolling right now. But like Lovie says, a bye week never comes at a bad time. Let’s come back rested and energetic to blow out northwestern.
 
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