Pregame: Illinois vs Purdue, Saturday, October 13th, 2:30pm CT, FS1

[DrewD007]

In trying to gauge a crowd estimate for Saturday - something I think could make the difference, honestly - I looked back at our post-Zook homecoming matchups:

2018: vs. Purdue at 2:30 pm ... 3-2 (1-1) going in
2017: L 24-10 vs. #5 Wisconsin ... 42,101 at 11:00 am ... 2-5 (0-4) going in
2016: L 40-17 vs. Minnesota ... 40,090 at 11:00 am ... 2-5 (1-3) going in
--- Lovie hired ---
2015: L 24-13 vs. Wisconsin ... 45,438 at 2:30 pm ... 4-2 (1-1) going in
--- Beckman fired, Cubit hired as interim head coach ---
2014: W 28-24 vs. Minnesota ... 44,437 at 11:00 am ... 3-4 (0-3) going in
2013: L 42-3 vs. Michigan State ... 45,895 at 2:30 pm ... 3-3 (0-2) going in
2012: L 31-17 vs. Indiana ... 47,981 at 11:00 am ... 2-5 (0-3) going in

FWIW, these were the dates of each matchup:
2018: October 13th
2017: October 28th
2016: October 29th
2015: October 24th
2014: October 25th
2013: October 26th
2012: October 27th

This is our earliest homecoming in years, and Saturday is supposed to be a near-football-cliche 56 and sunny. We also have only come into homecoming with a winning record ONE time in this timespan (2015, when we drew 45,438) and have only played at 2:30 pm twice (both times drawing over 45,000). Given a tiny bump in optimism after the Rutgers win, an early date/good weather and the perceived chance of victory vs. Purdue, I really hope we can get a crowd pushing 50,000 (let's be real, if it's anywhere close to breaking 50,000, it more or less looks full on TV, and that's what matters, LOL). Actually would have made it to Champaign for this game if I didn't have to go to some dumb BBQ for my girlfriend's cousin's wedding. Ugh.

GO ILLINI!

I feel the pain of missing this game for a wedding. My brother has his wedding this weekend in NE Iowa of all places. He’s even a fellow alum which makes the scheduling even more appalling. At least when my wife insisted on a fall wedding, I specifically chose an Illinois bye week.

 

[ivwilsoniv]

This is our earliest homecoming in years, and Saturday is supposed to be a near-football-cliche 56 and sunny. We also have only come into homecoming with a winning record ONE time in this timespan (2015, when we drew 45,438) and have only played at 2:30 pm twice (both times drawing over 45,000). Given a tiny bump in optimism after the Rutgers win, an early date/good weather and the perceived chance of victory vs. Purdue, I really hope we can get a crowd pushing 50,000 (let's be real, if it's anywhere close to breaking 50,000, it more or less looks full on TV, and that's what matters, LOL). Actually would have made it to Champaign for this game if I didn't have to go to some dumb BBQ for my girlfriend's cousin's wedding. Ugh.

GO ILLINI!

I'll be there in section 103 wearing my vintage Arrelious Benn jersey!

 

[Poe's Law]

This is our earliest homecoming in years, and Saturday is supposed to be a near-football-cliche 56 and sunny. We also have only come into homecoming with a winning record ONE time in this timespan (2015, when we drew 45,438) and have only played at 2:30 pm twice (both times drawing over 45,000). Given a tiny bump in optimism after the Rutgers win, an early date/good weather and the perceived chance of victory vs. Purdue, I really hope we can get a crowd pushing 50,000 (let's be real, if it's anywhere close to breaking 50,000, it more or less looks full on TV, and that's what matters, LOL). Actually would have made it to Champaign for this game if I didn't have to go to some dumb BBQ for my girlfriend's cousin's wedding. Ugh.

GO ILLINI!

Wow ton of research. Glad to know I'm not the only one who looks at ticket sales. My guess is we come in a shade under 46k. I think a lot of people stayed at home the first two weeks planned this as their one game for the year. If they start doing student ticket promotions today or tomorrow maybe they scratch and claw to 50k, but I wouldn't rule it out.

 

[BD mil]

Yeah no one.
NFL coach of the year.
2 Super Bowls.
Jeff Brohm isn't even in the same stratosphere.

Lovie’s innovation with the Tampa two many years back, which has now become much less relevant, won’t be coaching on Saturday. But hey, if he wants to pinch the corners with multiple defenders and leave a middle linebacker on an island to cover the seam I’m all for it.

10 years ago or so we went into Columbus and beat OSU, after beating Wisconsin and PSU in Champaign. But for an illegal formation penalty at Iowa, we win the B1G. As it was we went 10-3 and got to the Rose Bowl.

Well, looks like your top end was a little better than ours. If those were the zoom years, I’d say your recruiting was better than Purdue, Illinois, Minnesota or Indiana realistically had a chance to be at that time or previous to that time. FWIW, I think the big ten has won the arm race relative to everyone but the sec by so much that all four of these schools will recruit at unprecedented levels going forward.

 

[BD mil]

This is probably the most Purdue Football sentence I have ever read.

There is no refutation for this.

Again, if someone who roots for Illinois wants to run smack, I think purdue fans have too much ammo, but independent of that I have nothing bad to say about Illinois.

Put it this way... if everything about Nebraska was to be transformed to Illinois.. the roster, coaches, AD, Stadium... Nebraska fans would be wondering if they’d win the National championship in 2019 or 2020. I can’t wait for you guys to knock Martinez out of the game and whip buddahaw the Nebraska fan.

Believe me, leading up to the game, their message board posters, fans, radio personalities, coaches.. whoever, are basically gonna be like “Illinois plays football, really?” And Scott Frost will make comments that basically Indicate that they they could put the secretaries of the administration in red and white and beat you guys by a field goal.

Then after the game, when you guys go up by 28 and they get a ton of yards as you’re in shut down the game mode, Frost will talk like if not for mistakes they would have won by 70.. and then he will give this speech like he’s in the movie 300 about all the warriors he has on his team. And as he talks he won’t realize he looks like he has about 10% of the substance of pj fleck.

You guys are gonna beat Minnesota too. So in essence, win this game and you likely Bowl.

 

[wewillwint]

Just better than you in my time as a Purdue fan. It just seems odd to say “Purdue has never been great” when I’d have to look, but I’m pretty sure Darrell Hazell got all three of his wins against you lol.

Great is relative. Take Illinois, Minnesota, Purdue and Indiana. To me, coming from where ALL OF us are coming from in the last couple decades... 8-4 and a Bowl is a great year until you’ve done That for a while. You look at what Brohm has done with very little talent last year and the talent he’s got redshirting and has coming in next year, and it can be that kind of season, maybe better.

Great relative to Ohio State? None of the four programs are close to dreaming of that yet.

I meant great as in like OSU. Great for the fans of the school is a different level. I agree that 8-4 would be great. Unless some drastic changes occur, no BIG schole will ever make the OSU level.

 

[lstewart53x3]

IMO, this game comes down to “footballing”.

It reminds me of the USF game.

Like in that game, I look for us to give up 500+ yards of offense. Purdue is gonna’ move the ball.

So to me:

Can we score touchdowns & hold PU to fieldgoals? Can we win the field position battle? Can we go +2 in turnovers?

If we perform well in those categories, I look for us to be in it till the end.

If not, PU wins by 10+.

 

[Illinisteve25]

I'll be there in section 103 wearing my vintage Arrelious Benn jersey!

May have to break out my Benn jersey for this game was well good idea

 

[Illini-Rule]

I realize that this is a fan base that has fans who leave opposing stadiums after losing by 30 yelling “you suck! Wooooo!” At people who are very confused lol.

All fan bases have those fan's who are stupid obnoxious and run their mouths. I specifically remember a PU vs UI basketball game in Champaign where there was a group of Purdue fans in my section that were so obnoxious that I left the game early.

 

[ChiefIllini]

Can we not give up a 50 yard wide open TD to the other team on 3rd and long during the last few minutes of the game when we are leading?

If we had the secondary we have now for that USF game, we win.

For everyone crapping on that Purdue lose, keep in mind they are 82nd in the S&P rankings, we are 100th. Not saying theres a huge gap there, nor that S&P is a perfect ranking system, Eastern Michigan isn't some toss away MAC team (Kent State is 121 FYI).

 

[BD mil]

All fan bases have those fan's who are stupid obnoxious and run their mouths. I specifically remember a PU vs UI basketball game in Champaign where there was a group of Purdue fans in my section that were so obnoxious that I left the game early.

I’m from the Chicago area so I just couldn’t even get myself to attend a Purdue basketball game... ever. I just think it’s “eh.” In football it’s hard to be eh

 

[ILL_INI]

If we had the secondary we have now for that USF game, we win.

For everyone crapping on that Purdue lose, keep in mind they are 82nd in the S&P rankings, we are 100th. Not saying theres a huge gap there, nor that S&P is a perfect ranking system, Eastern Michigan isn't some toss away MAC team (Kent State is 121 FYI).

Yes, don't let that 0-4 record since the Purdue game fool you. They are a good team. They really pasted Monmouth in their first game.

 

[PtownIllini8]

IMO, this game comes down to “footballing”.

It reminds me of the USF game.

Like in that game, I look for us to give up 500+ yards of offense. Purdue is gonna’ move the ball.

So to me:

Can we score touchdowns & hold PU to fieldgoals? Can we win the field position battle? Can we go +2 in turnovers?

If we perform well in those categories, I look for us to be in it till the end.

If not, PU wins by 10+.

TOs are the key in my view. Win that battle, we can win the war.

 

[Illini-Rule]

I’m from the Chicago area so I just couldn’t even get myself to attend a Purdue basketball game... ever. I just think it’s “eh.” In football it’s hard to be eh

I understand, but my point is that every team has it's obnoxious fans that reflect poorly on the rest of the fan base. Some of the Iowa fans that were in Champaign two years ago for the football game were rude and obnoxious. I've seen both Cardinal's and Cub's fans that acted inappropriate as well as high school teams fans. It doesn't matter what the sport is or who the team is, we all have those fans that make the rest of the base look bad. An entire fan base should not be judged by the ones who act inappropriately is all I was trying to say.

 

[Illini-Rule]

TOs are the key in my view. Win that battle, we can win the war.

I completely agree with that, turnovers will win or lose the game Saturday.

 

[oldschool51]

If we had the secondary we have now for that USF game, we win.

For everyone crapping on that Purdue lose, keep in mind they are 82nd in the S&P rankings, we are 100th. Not saying theres a huge gap there, nor that S&P is a perfect ranking system, Eastern Michigan isn't some toss away MAC team (Kent State is 121 FYI).

 

[oldschool51]

Eastern Michigan is 2-4

 

[ChiefIllini]

Eastern Michigan is 2-4

And they haven't lost a game by more than 7 points. Honestly dont know your intentions posting that, but they are a team better than there record. How much better is obviously up for debate, but Purdue got beat by a team, that according to some measures, is a better team than us. Again just by using S&P, they are ranked as much better then we are, as we are to Kent St., FWIW.

 

[ILL_INI]

And they haven't lost a game by more than 7 points. Honestly dont know your intentions posting that, but they are a team better than there record. How much better is obviously up for debate, but Purdue got beat by a team, that according to some measures, is a better team than us. Again just by using S&P, they are ranked as much better then we are, as we are to Kent St., FWIW.

Too bad everyone can't play Penn State. How much does the quality of competition affect the S&P? If EMU wasn't able to move the ball as easily against Penn State as they could against Purdue, would the level of competition somehow get factored into the ratings? (I know they have a 4 star Iowa transfer QB, so of course they would move the ball just as easily against Penn State. This is purely hypothetical just to understand the ratings.)

 

[Deleted member 29907]

Too bad everyone can't play Penn State. How much does the quality of competition affect the S&P? If EMU wasn't able to move the ball as easily against Penn State as they could against Purdue, would the level of competition somehow get factored into the ratings? (I know they have a 4 star Iowa transfer QB, so of course they would move the ball just as easily against Penn State. This is purely hypothetical just to understand the ratings.)

this is what i kinda don't get - how is Nebraska at 0-5 ahead of us in the rating?

 

[MadSeason]

this is what i kinda don't get - how is Nebraska at 0-5 ahead of us in the rating?

Nebraska's strength of schedule is really good.

 

[Fighter of the Nightman]

Nebraska's strength of schedule is really good.

So? LOL, shows how garbage that ranking is.

 

[Deleted member 29907]

Nebraska's strength of schedule is really good.

Yeah, I saw that but are they ranked below each and every team they've played? Maybe they are. But it seems like participation trophies to me

 

[FiveStar]

IMO, this game comes down to “footballing”.

It reminds me of the USF game.

Like in that game, I look for us to give up 500+ yards of offense. Purdue is gonna’ move the ball.

So to me:

Can we score touchdowns & hold PU to fieldgoals? Can we win the field position battle? Can we go +2 in turnovers?

If we perform well in those categories, I look for us to be in it till the end.

If not, PU wins by 10+.

Really feel like we need at least 3 turnovers. Probably 4. Purdue is gonna score when we don’t turn them over. And every team goes for it on 4th and short vs us cause we get no push. We need to take the ball away at greater than our average.

 

[redwingillini11]

Won a pair of tix thanks to the AD's scavenger hunt giveaway! Happy to be attending my first game down in Champaign since my graduation!