Pregame: Illinois vs Wisconsin, Saturday, October 19th, 11:00am CT, BTN

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#51

We all know Kendrick is a big strong dude and how that is translating to the field. But what I notice is that list behind him.
1. Verdis is a young dude also. We already knew he was a talented OL in high school. Stoked about that dude.
2. Where the crap are all the other names???? Maybe I am wrong but I would expect a lot more upperclassmen on that list. Dlineman and O!
 
#52
Ok honest question here: First let's assume Lovie is not going to get fired mid season and we are all really hoping he does more in 6 games than in the previous 42 games. Big assumptions there but just play along
Other than beating Wisconsin, what kind of a score would we consider progress here? And you don't need to write "competitive", that is a given.
31-20?
 
#53
Ok honest question here: First let's assume Lovie is not going to get fired mid season and we are all really hoping he does more in 6 games than in the previous 42 games. Big assumptions there but just play along
Other than beating Wisconsin, what kind of a score would we consider progress here? And you don't need to write "competitive", that is a given.
31-20?
Difficult to answer that question. Score can be influenced by number of situational factors e.g. opponent turn-overs, how soon the opponent plays their second and third team. Often time the game is not as close as the final score indicates. Wisconsin is averaged 42 points a game and holding their opponents to an average of 3.1 points per game. They are currently ranked the #1 defense in college football. Given these factors, I would consider a 31 to 20 loss as making progress.
 
#54
South Carolina
Ok honest question here: First let's assume Lovie is not going to get fired mid season and we are all really hoping he does more in 6 games than in the previous 42 games. Big assumptions there but just play along
Other than beating Wisconsin, what kind of a score would we consider progress here? And you don't need to write "competitive", that is a given.
31-20?
I agree that it's kind of hard to point to a score especially when facing the #6 team.

On offense, I would say not having back to back to back 3 and outs would be nice. We need some first downs, even when the drive doesn't result in points that would still be progress. For defense, not letting the running backs average 8 yards per play. It seems like teams are always getting 2nd and short against the D.

That would be some progress. If the team could do that, I would have some confidence for the remaining "winnable" games.
 
#55
Tyngsborough, MA
Don't know about the score, but I'd like to see each of our linebackers meet the running back at the line and ring his bell. When's the last big Eifler hit? Hansen? Harding? Heck, go helmet to helmet and get thrown out of the game. At least be IN the game when you are IN the game.
 
#56
Ok honest question here: First let's assume Lovie is not going to get fired mid season and we are all really hoping he does more in 6 games than in the previous 42 games. Big assumptions there but just play along
Other than beating Wisconsin, what kind of a score would we consider progress here? And you don't need to write "competitive", that is a given.
31-20?
Well you say "competitive" because not all scores are created equally. If weird fluky bounces of the ball go our way and we keep it close through that in a game Wisconsin dominates the normal flow of the game, then nothing has really changed.

But if we can cause them problems on both sides of the ball, play a clean game and keep them worried and looking for things beyond their base concepts, that would be progress against this team, even if they end up pulling away at the end.

Michigan was running through a Texas freeway every single time they ran a toss sweep last week. Change that against a much better running team, and we'll talk.
 
#57
Well you say "competitive" because not all scores are created equally. If weird fluky bounces of the ball go our way and we keep it close through that in a game Wisconsin dominates the normal flow of the game, then nothing has really changed.

But if we can cause them problems on both sides of the ball, play a clean game and keep them worried and looking for things beyond their base concepts, that would be progress against this team, even if they end up pulling away at the end.

Michigan was running through a Texas freeway every single time they ran a toss sweep last week. Change that against a much better running team, and we'll talk.
That is what I mean by competitive. I don't categorize the Michigan game as competitive. So if we are actually competitive, look like a B1G team, what is the max we can lose by and still feel progress?
 
#58
That is what I mean by competitive. I don't categorize the Michigan game as competitive. So if we are actually competitive, look like a B1G team, what is the max we can lose by and still feel progress?
Eh, this Wisconsin team is really, really good and has embarrassed a couple of teams with a lot more talent than us. We could magically be good enough to beat Purdue, Northwestern and Rutgers and have a good shot at Iowa and MSU and still get rolled over in this game. It is what it is. Do your best and turn the page.

FEI projects the margin of victory as 47.8 points, fwiw.
 
#59
Ok honest question here: First let's assume Lovie is not going to get fired mid season and we are all really hoping he does more in 6 games than in the previous 42 games. Big assumptions there but just play along
Other than beating Wisconsin, what kind of a score would we consider progress here? And you don't need to write "competitive", that is a given.
31-20?
Losing is not progress. Moral victories in year 4 of your tenure is not progress. There is no score that involves losing that anyone should consider progress.

The bar for success at Illinois is low enough. Lowering to "Well we only lost by 11" in the 4th year of Lovie Smith is crazy.
 
#60

Deleted member 651864

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We lost to Eastern Michigan. We lost to Eastern Michigan. We lost to Eastern Michigan. Let me repeat that, we lost to Eastern Michigan in Lovie's 4th season, and nothing has been done about it. How many other Power 5 schools would tolerate this? Why does Illinois tolerate it? Is it the Athletic Director, or does it go beyond him, and is this a culture problem at our University? My fear is that we will make the same old hire next year, and have a boring coach. And 4 years from now, everyone will be scratching heir heads saying wow, I didn't see that coming.

Wisconsin 59
Illinois 3
 
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#61
Michigan
Ok honest question here: First let's assume Lovie is not going to get fired mid season and we are all really hoping he does more in 6 games than in the previous 42 games. Big assumptions there but just play along
Other than beating Wisconsin, what kind of a score would we consider progress here? And you don't need to write "competitive", that is a given.
31-20?
Honest answer --I don't think it's worth asking the question. The body of work is overwhelming. Letting a potential outlier cloud your judgment would be a mistake.
 
#62
Forget about third down efficiency, how's this for a new measure of defensive ineptness: the percentage of times that the defense forces the other team to use third down (i.e., manages to stop them from getting a first down or a score on first or second down)? Numerically, the number of third down attempts divided by the total number of sets of downs (not possessions) that the other team starts.

Can we do better than 50% against Wisky, i.e., force them to third down at least half the time? Probably not.

Number of times you force them to third down is obviously a stat that they keep. Number of sets of downs isn't kept, but I think this formula is close: First downs + scores + turnovers + failed third down attempts - successful fourth down attempts. (It omits sets of downs that end with halftime or the end of the gam.) Using this formula, it looks as though (if my math is right) we forced Michigan to third down only about 28% of the time.
 
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#63
So we have a mid season all American OL guard and experienced Line and we can’t run the ball after we did all of last year. Doesn’t seem like we pass protect well either. Defense still sucks because of injuries, O can’t stay on the field anb Lovies crappy coaching. I unfortunately think we have to fire Lovie. And Rod Smith.
 
#64
That is what I mean by competitive. I don't categorize the Michigan game as competitive. So if we are actually competitive, look like a B1G team, what is the max we can lose by and still feel progress?
I don’t think there is a plausible scenario where that can take place. Barring some kind of miracle that defies everything we’ve seen the past four years.
 
#65
I would speculate there is a greater than 50% chance lovie is retained. I can see JW talked into a senior laden team, hurdles previously mentioned about program.

For recruiting, Would It be better to cut ties after this year and have a smaller recruiting class, give the new coaches a year to recruit a big class??? Possibly all the seniors will do better with a new staff and then lead to a good class? As long as new coaches embrace seniors and don’t force them out...again.

Or will it not matter and recruits will want to flock to ill with new coach?
 
#66
I hate writing this as beating the Badgers is more important to me than other B10 team other than the Idiots Out Wondering Around....

  • Wisconsin stops scoring on us when when they chose to stop scoring (either mercy-running in to the line or putting in the walk-ons).
  • No way we cover at -29.
  • The only way we score is by fluke (PR for a TD, great kick-off return to the 10 and a FG, forcing a turnover deep in Badger territory, a Wisky LB breaking his leg while trying to close on a receiver, etc.) or a 55+ yard FG
I hate that I've given up on this season. I support these players 100% but it certainly feels like they aren't being coached up well and aren't being put in positions to succeed by the staff.

Normally I believe in giving a coach 4 years (and yes, I consider this year 3 of Lovie). But there has been such an UTTER lack of progress. I hate feeling this way.
 
#67
Or will it not matter and recruits will want to flock to ill with new coach?
Depends on who that new coach is. Get Urban Meyer and they'll flock here. Hire Tim Beckman's dentist and next year looks just like this year.
 
#69
Losing is not progress. Moral victories in year 4 of your tenure is not progress. There is no score that involves losing that anyone should consider progress.

The bar for success at Illinois is low enough. Lowering to "Well we only lost by 11" in the 4th year of Lovie Smith is crazy.
Absolutely....it's either a W or an L. ....don't like to keep lowering the bar and then somehow claim progress. Wisky will probably put in the reserves quickly...just cant accept that we only lost by 24 points as progress. We win OR we lose.
 
#70
I would speculate there is a greater than 50% chance lovie is retained. I can see JW talked into a senior laden team, hurdles previously mentioned about program.

For recruiting, Would It be better to cut ties after this year and have a smaller recruiting class, give the new coaches a year to recruit a big class??? Possibly all the seniors will do better with a new staff and then lead to a good class? As long as new coaches embrace seniors and don’t force them out...again.

Or will it not matter and recruits will want to flock to ill with new coach?
If they only beat Rutgers, there is a 1% chance Lovie is kept. The stadium will have 15,000 people in it for games next year, and recruiting would plummet. Who would honestly go?
 
#72
Don't know about the score, but I'd like to see each of our linebackers meet the running back at the line and ring his bell. When's the last big Eifler hit? Hansen? Harding? Heck, go helmet to helmet and get thrown out of the game. At least be IN the game when you are IN the game.
Give Miles some time to work his magic.
 
#75
Illinois
That moment you realize it's time, already, to permanently switch to the basketball thread.
 
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