Trading Stock/Investing

#76      

illinoisfan11

Peoria, IL
I'm actually a financial advisor. If any of my fellow Illini fans ever have any questions, please feel free to PM me for my contact information! I never charge fees for meetings/consultations/planning. :shield:
 
#77      
I didn't realize this site existed - https://www.motifinvesting.com/

Really cool idea allowing you to build your own ETFs or mutual fund style investing.

Haven't worked with it, (not allowed to since I do work in wealth management) but it seems pretty neat and cheap.
 
#78      

DaytonIllini

D
Guest
I think you guys are thinking of "phase 1, 2, 3" as opposed to stage. I agree with what has been said otherwise. Right now Gilead is done with phase 3 trials on a multi drug cocktail that has ridiculous efficacy. Everyone is expecting FDA approval in the near term. There are some concerns. I believe J&J is in phase 3 trial on a competing regimen. Also with Sovaldi in large scale use it's possible that unforeseen side effects or complications could be found.

Often when everyone expects good news, it's baked into the price already. That said it isn't really priced for perfection. A 50% increase over 12 months is possible.

The stock is up from 91.50 on August 1 to 109 in premarket trading today. Big news was that Merck's competing regimen failed. Sovaldi which is Gilead's drug is already being replaced by Harvoni which is a cocktail that contains Sovaldi. There is still at least 1 more competing regimen undergoing trials right now. I believe that is the J&J product. If that fails this stock could easily see 120-125. Of course if it is successful you'd probably want out of this stock. A lot of its profits stem from anti-HIV drugs whose patents are creeping towards expiration.
 
#79      

DaytonIllini

D
Guest
Thanks zoggle. I remember my victories a lot more than my disasters of which there are a fair number.

I think the drop happens often in smallish stocks after good news is announced. People take profits and that pushes the stock down. Plus it was up a lot lately.

I could see PCYC being bought out potentially. Johnson and Johnson might want them. I think GILD would be a lot to swallow. Their market cap is almost $140B.

http://gph.is/1iM4SD2

Pharmacyclics (PCYC) will be presenting updated data on its drug Imbruvica at the American Society of Hematology Dec 6-9. I own the stock here (up 10% since August) but this meeting could be a catalyst up or down for the stock. If you bought it and it's a substantial part of your portfolio you should be aware. It's just about 0.5% of mine so I am going to let it ride but if it was a bigger component I would probably take some gains and lighten my position. I am fairly conservative though.
 
#80      

DaytonIllini

D
Guest
Also keep an eye on Astellas Pharma.

It's a Japanese company that trades on the Tokyo exchange. There are a couple ADR's and I don't know the difference between them (I bought on the Tokyo exchange). They have two big oncology drugs Tarceva and Xtandi. The first is selling pretty well in non-small cell cancer of the lung and the other appears to be gaining ground in the metastatic castrate resistant prostate cancer market. It's a pill and has a more benign side effect profile than the chemotherapy alternative. It does go up against Xytiga (abiraterone) and ongoing phase 3 trials are being done to see if Xtandi vs. Zytiga is better. Zytiga has to be given with prednisone though and that can be a problem for older men who may be type 2 diabetics. Using the KISS principle I think Xtandi might be the better first line drug reserving Zytiga for Xtandi failures.

There is also another study looking at the two drugs together vs. one or the other by itself. Since both work on separate parts of the androgen receptor (AR) axis there may be an additive effect. Xtandi is a highly active AR antagonist. Zytiga works on the Cyp17 pathway as an inhibitor of androgen synthesis.
 
#81      

DaytonIllini

D
Guest
Just a quick update.

GILD - has been mostly flat to down since I last mentioned it. ABBV's competing regimen was approved and the won a major distribution channel. GILD came back and won a couple. I added to my position on the dip and will hold pending further news.

PCYC - Up dramatically since I last mentioned it. Up $45/share since August. I've made quite a bit so I sold half my position that I had held for more than a year. I love their product and it is entering trials with a number of other drugs to form drug cocktails and hopefully expand the indication for use of the drug. Right now it's used in a rare form of lymphoma (mantle cell) and in chronic leukemias. The market for this sort of thing could be really large but there is a competing drug that will possibly be coming out this year.

Astellas - Flat. The two drugs are still doing fairly well though the company has not benefited much in stock appreciation to date. There is a competing drug to Xtandi that is in a phase III randomized trial that we are putting patients on. That drug appears to my eye to be a threat.
 
#82      
Has anyone jumped in on any oil service companies with the oil prices going as low as they have been?
 
#83      

DaytonIllini

D
Guest
So PCYC is up another $45 in the past 1 month. On takeover rumors.
 
#85      

Serious Late

Peoria via Denver via Ann Arbor via Albuquerque vi
Bump.

Any advice for situations such as last week? Stocks started free falling, and I immediately went into hold mode. My strategy was basically "stop looking at them, wait for however long until the market recovers". I think it was more reactionary based, but all my stock declines were driven by the market and not the relative changes company by company.

How do others react when the market starts to tumble? Did anyone see some big opportunities to exploit at that point?
 
#86      

ILLINIFAN2

Des Moines, IA
Bump.

Any advice for situations such as last week? Stocks started free falling, and I immediately went into hold mode. My strategy was basically "stop looking at them, wait for however long until the market recovers". I think it was more reactionary based, but all my stock declines were driven by the market and not the relative changes company by company.

How do others react when the market starts to tumble? Did anyone see some big opportunities to exploit at that point?

Why hold, BUY... I bought Lumber Liquidators at 12.56 a few days ago after it dropped from around 20. Also bought several oil/gas stocks on Monday with a nice return already:D
 
#87      

Serious Late

Peoria via Denver via Ann Arbor via Albuquerque vi
Why hold, BUY... I bought Lumber Liquidators at 12.56 a few days ago after it dropped from around 20. Also bought several oil/gas stocks on Monday with a nice return already:D

You aren't concerned with the outlook of the market in the short term? If it is all about the timing, do you think the drop was just a blip?
 
#88      

ILLINIFAN2

Des Moines, IA
You aren't concerned with the outlook of the market in the short term? If it is all about the timing, do you think the drop was just a blip?

Absolutely not, short term there is quick money to be made and as for long term, you have to learn to ride the storm out and let it ride!
 
#89      

danielb927

Orange Krush Class of 2013
Rochester, MN
If you're running a long-term portfolio with dollar value averaging, this is where you end up with a better ROI than just pumping in X dollars per month.
 
#90      
Just bought some Suncor Energy last week for a long term option. Here soon I am going to buy into Apple before the new iPhone comes out, and looking into Illinois Tool Works for a long term option.
 
#91      

danielb927

Orange Krush Class of 2013
Rochester, MN
Just bought some Suncor Energy last week for a long term option. Here soon I am going to buy into Apple before the new iPhone comes out, and looking into Illinois Tool Works for a long term option.

Funny, I just happened to be buying a bottle of Rain-X this weekend and noticed it's made by Illinois Tool Works. First time I'd heard of the company. What else do they do?
 
#92      
Funny, I just happened to be buying a bottle of Rain-X this weekend and noticed it's made by Illinois Tool Works. First time I'd heard of the company. What else do they do?

Anything from Rain-X (awesome product btw), fasteners, small-to-large equipment, industrial products, etc...world wide. They have over 20,000 patents with unexpired patents, and pending patents. ITW has a market cap of 30.27 billion. Their 52-week low is $78 and are currently sitting at $82. They are a BUY option right now.
 
#93      
I picked up a position in DIS when it dipped around 97. I just look at these dips as a buying opp. Not planning on timing the market just getting good companies at a good value.
 
#94      
I picked up a position in DIS when it dipped around 97. I just look at these dips as a buying opp. Not planning on timing the market just getting good companies at a good value.


Good choice. You've made a profit already.

Your last sentence is spot on. Buying blue chip companies at a good value.
 
#95      

Ryllini

Lombard
Anything from Rain-X (awesome product btw), fasteners, small-to-large equipment, industrial products, etc...world wide. They have over 20,000 patents with unexpired patents, and pending patents. ITW has a market cap of 30.27 billion. Their 52-week low is $78 and are currently sitting at $82. They are a BUY option right now.

ITW does seem like a great company and stock, but do they sell to China? I think eventually that will hurt them long term if they do.
 
#97      
So, I opened an E-Trade account and I'm going to start trading stock on Monday. I have a few different companies in my sights.

I'm not trying to get advice really, but I'm curious as to what you all have invested in/how you're doing in the stock market.

I've done very well this year, but can't say it was due to my smarts. Bought Kraft for the dividend and about three days later it got bought out. Then one of my dogs, AGL Resources, got bought out by Southern Co. During this correction, I've added GIS, T and INTC.

I have an account to trade but mainly I use a few Vanguard mutual funds, dollar cost average and rebalance every few months.
 
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#98      

ILLINIFAN2

Des Moines, IA
Crazy last few days for the oil/energy sector. I took a gamble several weeks ago and bought 5K shares of CHK at $1.60 with bankruptcy rumors looming and it took off over the last 48hours and I dumped it at $4.59!

Hopefully all this good luck means we beat Maryland tonight;)
 
#99      
Crazy last few days for the oil/energy sector. I took a gamble several weeks ago and bought 5K shares of CHK at $1.60 with bankruptcy rumors looming and it took off over the last 48hours and I dumped it at $4.59!

Hopefully all this good luck means we beat Maryland tonight;)

If we don't, at least you can afford a good stiff drink to console yourself :D