John Groce at Illinois

[IlliniOX08]

It surprises me that we are arguing the merits of a 9-8 team. I haven't looked, but when was the last time Illinois was 9-8? I don't remember any year where we were that bad - because normally we don't lose more than 2 or 3 in the noncon season.

We're in year 4 of the JG regime, we're 9-8 17 games into the season, and are likely headed for a "no tourney" year this year. After going to the NIT the last two years. I love his passion and energy, but this is just not where any of us expected to be this far down the JG road.

As for the Purdue game, which was fun and lifted our spirits, I think all it shows is what happens when a jump shooting team is hitting its jumpers. Maybe it was the influence of Lou Henson bobble head day?

Part of me agrees with you completely - I really thought JG would have the program on the rise. The results don't look good but lets not forget that after Dee, Deron and Augie left Weber had a couple of overachieving teams and a couple of real bombs (2007-2008 and 2011-2012) come to mind.

The difference with this team compared Weber's bombs is that this one was supposed to make some noise. Now, this team has only added to JG's run of incredible bad luck. Injuries, an Athletic Department in shambles, the hat-trick and Quentin Snider day, Aaron Cosby not living up to any expectations at all, all of the other near PG recruiting misses - those aren't easy things to recover from. All of them added to the perception that the program just isn't what it used to be.

I guess the real issue is - I just don't know what to make of Groce as a coach. I'd like to see him nail a full recruiting class, as he came so close to doing with the Sophs this year, but I don't know how much more of a leash he is going to get. The other issue is, if Groce is let go, who is brought in to replace him? Is there going to be a full push from the administration to bring in a heavy hitter (and will any heavy hitters be interested?)? Or will the program have to start from scratch.. again?

My biggest worry overall isn't necessarily with the coach. It's that besides the 2017 class, talent in our normally strong areas of recruiting (Peoria, Springfield, StL Metro) continues to be drier than it used to be. And I don't know if Illinois will ever win Chicago enough to make up for that without bringing a slimeball in.

 

[Jreed322]

You just stated that the class of '11 provided "nothing" and then suggested that someone else was incapable of having a logical argument.

Tracy led our team in assists Groce's first year. Nnanna led the team in rebounds. It seriously bothers the H-E-Double Hockey Sticks out of me when a poster attempts to trash (mostly unfairly) current/former players while making arguments.

For the record, I also don't believe TJL is going to come in and play more minutes than a Senior Tate next season. But that is the consistent theme on here as well.

I wasn't clear. The '11 class provided nothing that supports an argument for them being a "great nucleus" of anything. There were so many flame outs and players who didn't belong that we essentially had to refill for that class when Groce got here. I love what Abrams and nnanna brought/bring but I also remember more people than not wishing we had betters than those two and pointing out their deficiencies.

Your comment on TJL, I think by the end of the year he's playing more than Tate.

 

[Jreed322]

What? Henry was the 8th man in an 8 man rotation. He was a freshman. I included him because he was literally the 8th person in minutes.

On what planet are we talking about bashing several former Illini players who gave everything to our university in favor of Groce who is being paid millions to give us so-so results?

We were a good team when Groce took over and we haven't really improved in 4 years. I don't care about anything Weber or Groce have done. I just want to win in a classy manner. Groce, so far, isn't doing that. It's as simple as that.

I'm not bashing anyone. I'm being honest about Henry's time at Illinois. Sorry if you don't like that.

 

[Foggy Notion]

But ignoring the past and current results to favor the current coach will not magically make Illinois better. As fans, we need to demand more than just 8-10 finishes in the Big Ten.

Demanding more will not magically make things better, either.

 

[Foggy Notion]

I just want to win in a classy manner.

Perhaps you should care about losing in a classy manner, too.

 

[IAmChrisFarley]

What? Henry was the 8th man in an 8 man rotation. He was a freshman. I included him because he was literally the 8th person in minutes.



On what planet are we talking about bashing several former Illini players who gave everything to our university in favor of Groce who is being paid millions to give us so-so results?



We were a good team when Groce took over and we haven't really improved in 4 years. I don't care about anything Weber or Groce have done. I just want to win in a classy manner. Groce, so far, isn't doing that. It's as simple as that.

What classified as "classy manner"? Clean and doing things by the book, it won't get the job done. You have to stretch the rules as far as they can go to compete at this level.

 

[zpfled]

We were a good team when Groce took over and we haven't really improved in 4 years. I don't care about anything Weber or Groce have done. I just want to win in a classy manner. Groce, so far, isn't doing that. It's as simple as that.

No we weren't. We were a mediocre team that then lost a lottery pick.

 

[DudeAbides]

I'm not bashing anyone. I'm being honest about Henry's time at Illinois. Sorry if you don't like that.

So after 2 years and 2 different coaches, you're willing to say that Henry wasn't good enough to play at Illinois because you're just "being honest" about his time here. Yet, after 3.5 years you're offering up all kinds of excuses as to why Groce isn't performing up to standards? That Groce had to pick up the pieces. He had injuries. Bad luck on the recruiting trail. Etc etc. But Henry being bad? That was cut-and-dry. Couldn't be poor coaching, playing out of position, staff turmoil or anything else that could be impacting an 18 year old's life. Nope. Clearly on him and him alone.

 

[DudeAbides]

No we weren't. We were a mediocre team that then lost a lottery pick.

I already pointed out that we were a much better team in Weber's last year than our final 17-15 record showed. And just saying Leonard was a lottery pick doesn't mean he was some unstoppable force in college. He averaged 13 and 8 his last year and was drafted in the lottery because he had a ton of upside as a springy 7 footer. That same year Paul averaged nearly 15 and 5.

 

[WesterveltVictoryCigar]

Demanding more will not magically make things better, either.

I've been demanding a national title for a long, long time. Where is it?

 

[zpfled]

Yes, those 2 classes were pretty solid, but they were surrounded by nothing. Nothing in 2008, 2010 or 2012. And a bunch of the better talent in those classes was concentrated in the wing positions. Funny how we keep repeating those same errors....

This is so huge. Groce inherited NO sophomores. He had to hit the ground running and with very little time to recruit to Illinois for his first class, he snagged a star (Nunn), kept a star (Hill), and got a PG and a big who are decent role players as upperclassmen.

He picked up two talented bigs in the next class, and then picked up a top-20 class with a legit star (from Indiana, no less).

His 2016 class already looks solid, if not overwhelming, and if he picks up Froling it will be a balanced, program-building class.

This is not to mention the success he's had with transfers. Rice, McLaurin, and Thorne were great pickups. Starks and Cosby and Paul--not so much.

He's had to go to the transfer market because he inherited a team with two completely empty classes (no 2010s, no 2012s). He had some good seniors and took them to the tournament.

Then he's had this crazy injury bug. Why are we acting like Illinois being 9-8 is a failing of his? We had the hardest non-conference schedule in years, and if even half of our injured guys would not have been injured, this season would probably look much different.

The team is starting to come together now, at the BEGINNING of conference play, and some of you people are acting like the season's over and a failure.

This season may end up being the decline that many of you are already saying. But that's why we play the games. Why don't you wait before you get sad.

Also, a commitment from Froling, or Tilmon, or the return of Thorne...any number of things could dramatically change the picture of the program.

 

[zpfled]

I already pointed out that we were a much better team in Weber's last year than our final 17-15 record showed. And just saying Leonard was a lottery pick doesn't mean he was some unstoppable force in college. He averaged 13 and 8 his last year and was drafted in the lottery because he had a ton of upside as a springy 7 footer. That same year Paul averaged nearly 15 and 5.

You pointing something out doesn't make it so.

Leonard was not an unstoppable force, but he was pretty damn good. And he would have been even better as a junior.

 

[zpfled]

Here's another angle on this conversation.

Remember how Weber's last few years were such a bummer, and we were all like "LET'S NOT SETTLE FOR MEDIOCRITY GUYS WE NEED A NEW COACH!"?

Let's, for the moment, assume that those of you who are saying we're in steady decline are right. Are you sure we will do better with another hire? What if we don't? What makes Illinois more attractive to a top-notch coach candidate now? (State Farm renovations are one thing)

What makes you think we can do better than Groce, when we weren't able to do better last time?

Are the State Farm Center renovations going to be enough to bring a better coach here, or are you willing to just roll the dice?

We could be a lot worse, do you want to take that risk?

I'll say this: If Groce doesn't have things looking really good by the end of next year, I'll be on the new-coach wagon. But I tend to think that this year is looking promising, and next year is looking better, and assuming a solid recruiting class in 2017, we'll be back in force by then. I don't want to start over because of the last two years and the start of this one. I won't last through another 4-year rebuilding process.

 

[IlliniOX08]

Here's another angle on this conversation.

Remember how Weber's last few years were such a bummer, and we were all like "LET'S NOT SETTLE FOR MEDIOCRITY GUYS WE NEED A NEW COACH!"?

Let's, for the moment, assume that those of you who are saying we're in steady decline are right. Are you sure we will do better with another hire? What if we don't? What makes Illinois more attractive to a top-notch coach candidate now? (State Farm renovations are one thing)

What makes you think we can do better than Groce, when we weren't able to do better last time?

Are the State Farm Center renovations going to be enough to bring a better coach here, or are you willing to just roll the dice?

We could be a lot worse, do you want to take that risk?

I'll say this: If Groce doesn't have things looking really good by the end of next year, I'll be on the new-coach wagon. But I tend to think that this year is looking promising, and next year is looking better, and assuming a solid recruiting class in 2017, we'll be back in force by then. I don't want to start over because of the last two years and the start of this one. I won't last through another 4-year rebuilding process.

I remember all of this and I agree with that assessment, and essentially said so in my post earlier this morning. Hitting the re-start button might be a riskier move at this point in time than seeing how Groce can do with a healthy team and with a 2016 and 2017 class.

Now we may all look back in two years with hindsight that could be "Sure am glad we stuck it out with Groce" or "OMG we've wasted two more years". But right now with the administration and the DIA in shambles, if Groce is let go they may well end up with a coach who would have this program resembling Todd Lickliter's Iowa teams. Continuity may be a really strong positive for this program, at least until everything else is sorted out.

 

[Ransom Stoddard]

Actually, when you have a skill that is in really high demand, you can fail a lot on the job and still be retained. You can get paid a pretty penny to learn on the job.

If you're an iOS or Rails developer, for example.

You don't fire someone unless you're reasonably sure you can get along without their position being filled, or that you can replace them with a better candidate.

This is all very true. But the key is that you have to have demonstrated that skill. I've hired people based on their resume and interview and then realized that their skill is not as advertised and subsequently they are gone. I'm not paying for resume, I'm paying for results.

And I'm in the camp that the OP's analogy is flawed. HC's are more like managers than individual contributors, so there is a lot of ambiguity about what their contribution is to the success of the team. Which is why I being accountable for hiring a manager rather than an individual contributor.

 

[breadman]

Many interesting posts to read on this thread.
My own personal hope is that Groce builds up to the longevity of Henson and doubles his win total.
I like this junior class (and still wish we had Colbert)
I like our sophomore class, even though they call Finke RS Frosh.
I like this freshman class.
Finally, with a PG coming in next year, it is a great start to next year's class. So, from a personnel standpoint, the talent is getting here.
With Groce getting a top power 5 conference position so close to his roots at the age that he is, I can't se him leaving to go farther away. I think he is just that kind of down home guy that has realized he has made it, why ask for more, or something different?

 

[bleedsorangenblue]

This is so huge. Groce inherited NO sophomores. He had to hit the ground running and with very little time to recruit to Illinois for his first class, he snagged a star (Nunn), kept a star (Hill), and got a PG and a big who are decent role players as upperclassmen.

He picked up two talented bigs in the next class, and then picked up a top-20 class with a legit star (from Indiana, no less).

His 2016 class already looks solid, if not overwhelming, and if he picks up Froling it will be a balanced, program-building class.

This is not to mention the success he's had with transfers. Rice, McLaurin, and Thorne were great pickups. Starks and Cosby and Paul--not so much.

He's had to go to the transfer market because he inherited a team with two completely empty classes (no 2010s, no 2012s). He had some good seniors and took them to the tournament.

Then he's had this crazy injury bug. Why are we acting like Illinois being 9-8 is a failing of his? We had the hardest non-conference schedule in years, and if even half of our injured guys would not have been injured, this season would probably look much different.

The team is starting to come together now, at the BEGINNING of conference play, and some of you people are acting like the season's over and a failure.

This season may end up being the decline that many of you are already saying. But that's why we play the games. Why don't you wait before you get sad.

Also, a commitment from Froling, or Tilmon, or the return of Thorne...any number of things could dramatically change the picture of the program.

^^^ ++++ ^^^

I am glad that some people get this. The fact that others don't and are willing to pitch all that has already been built makes me pretty sad. I would hope to think we have a rational fan base. Some of the comments here make me see that there is an irrational fringe element unwilling to look at the positive. I really don't understand where all the doom and gloom comes from.

We could argue this ad infinitum based on some of the irascible comments here. There isn't a whole lot of point to doing this now. Nothing will happen til the end of the season and this topic may be worth revisiting at that time. Consequently, I am not going to waste much time arguing with people who are convinced that this season is over and there is no opportunity for improvement. Hopefully, some of those arguing along these lines can find some joy in watching this team grow and compete. Otherwise, why even be a fan?

 

[Deleted member 586966]

I wish I had the faith and patience of you all who mention this year's team and the tournament in the same breath.

 

[HoustonIllini]

It surprises me that we are arguing the merits of a 9-8 team. I haven't looked, but when was the last time Illinois was 9-8? I don't remember any year where we were that bad - because normally we don't lose more than 2 or 3 in the noncon season.

We're in year 4 of the JG regime, we're 9-8 17 games into the season, and are likely headed for a "no tourney" year this year. After going to the NIT the last two years. I love his passion and energy, but this is just not where any of us expected to be this far down the JG road.

As for the Purdue game, which was fun and lifted our spirits, I think all it shows is what happens when a jump shooting team is hitting its jumpers. Maybe it was the influence of Lou Henson bobble head day?

Re: the bolded, I don't think any one expected 60% of our starters to be in the hospital either . . . :tsk:

 

[Calvin]

For the most part, I would say the range of debate here is pretty reasonable. You’ve got posters pointing out the facts on the relatively poor level of success, and others pointing to the positive side of things and the mitigating factors on the negative side. Unfortunately, one of the points in Groce’s favor is how the position would look to a proven coach, and how even with the budget for 3+ mil a year, we still might not get a proven winner in here.

At 1-3 in the conference, with several hard games behind us, I think Groce has a shot of getting us on to the bubble, which honestly would exceed my expectations with all the crap he’s had to deal with this year. I just want to see some good bball the rest of the way, and having seen flashes of that, I’m kind of excited to see what the team can do. The pessimist in me says we won’t hold up on the road, but time will tell…..

 

[Obelix]

Here's another angle on this conversation.

Remember how Weber's last few years were such a bummer, and we were all like "LET'S NOT SETTLE FOR MEDIOCRITY GUYS WE NEED A NEW COACH!"?

Let's, for the moment, assume that those of you who are saying we're in steady decline are right. Are you sure we will do better with another hire? What if we don't? What makes Illinois more attractive to a top-notch coach candidate now? (State Farm renovations are one thing)

What makes you think we can do better than Groce, when we weren't able to do better last time?

Are the State Farm Center renovations going to be enough to bring a better coach here, or are you willing to just roll the dice?

We could be a lot worse, do you want to take that risk?

I'll say this: If Groce doesn't have things looking really good by the end of next year, I'll be on the new-coach wagon. But I tend to think that this year is looking promising, and next year is looking better, and assuming a solid recruiting class in 2017, we'll be back in force by then. I don't want to start over because of the last two years and the start of this one. I won't last through another 4-year rebuilding process.

I believe Groce survives 2016 because he deserves another year. Not because of the risk of making the wrong decision.

The angle you are presenting is wrong. Not making a decision because you are afraid to make the wrong decision is a very dangerous attitude. Leaders take decisions, as they should. They are not afraid to make decisions.

Making a hiring decision is hardly the roll of the dice as you say. There will always be risks, there are no guarantees in life or the business world either. Yet, Illinois has great potential as a basketball program and there will always be qualified candidates. We have made plenty of good hires in the past. Illinois was able to hire Self, for example, who is now a guaranteed HOF coach. We are certainly capable to hiring a very good coach if needed, whether it is this year or next.

Furthermore, the risk of making a decision will always be there. It is not that if you make a decision next year, you are guaranteed a better coach. If you are afraid of making a decision this year, the same fear will exist next year.

 

[zpfled]

I believe Groce survives 2016 because he deserves another year. Not because of the risk of making the wrong decision.

The angle you are presenting is wrong. Not making a decision because you are afraid to make the wrong decision is a very dangerous attitude. Leaders take decisions, as they should. They are not afraid to make decisions.

Making a hiring decision is hardly the roll of the dice as you say. There will always be risks, there are no guarantees in life or the business world either. Yet, Illinois has great potential as a basketball program and there will always be qualified candidates. We have made plenty of good hires in the past. Illinois was able to hire Self, for example, who is now a guaranteed HOF coach. We are certainly capable to hiring a very good coach if needed, whether it is this year or next.

Furthermore, the risk of making a decision will always be there. It is not that if you make a decision next year, you are guaranteed a better coach. If you are afraid of making a decision this year, the same fear will exist next year.

You fire a head coach only if you have a reasonable expectation of hiring a better one. What I am expressing is not fear of risk (but thanks for the life lessons), rather, it's asking the question: Why are we assuming we're going to get a better coach?

Illinois' potential as a basketball program is overstated on this board. We think we're a sleeping giant in football and basketball, but that remains to be seen. We got lucky with Self. Will we get lucky with the next hire?

Lou had success at Illinois, but he had time to build a program. Groce hasn't even graduated his first class.

Now I know you and I are in agreement that Groce deserves another year. I just want to clarify what I was saying.

I contend that Groce will be able to build a program here that will compete with the top of our conference, which is all that I expect from Illinois--be in the top tier of the Big Ten. Very few coaches can build that kind of program, and even fewer can build it quickly. I think Groce can do it. I don't think we'll find someone who can do it faster.

We should not fire Groce unless we are reasonably confident we can replace him with someone better. That's not 'fear' talking, that's 'good sense'--another trait that's important in life, business, and whatever else you brought up.

 

[Sal Iacuzzo]

There are good coaches out there that would come to Illinois. Thinking we can't do better is a loser attitude. Maybe Groce can salvage this season and prove he deserves another year but I'm not seeing it right now. We only have 1 committed player and should have a team capable of making the tournament in place for next season. This would be the ideal time to make a change.

 

[zpfled]

There are good coaches out there that would come to Illinois. Thinking we can't do better is a loser attitude. Maybe Groce can salvage this season and prove he deserves another year but I'm not seeing it right now.

Coaches like....who?

Remember, it has to be someone who can come in and do better than Groce and recruit a team that can lose 3 starters to injury at a time without missing a beat.

Because that's the standard we apparently have.

 

[Sal Iacuzzo]

Coaches like....who?

Remember, it has to be someone who can come in and do better than Groce and recruit a team that can lose 3 starters to injury at a time without missing a beat.

Because that's the standard we apparently have.

Bryce Drew makes $285,000