Illinois Basketball 2016-2017

[BirdDog9048]

If DJW has a decent Freshman to Sophomore leap he might be a bit higher in the rotation. His ceiling is much higher than most on this team and he's starting to show signs of breaking open.

I think it just took him a while to feel comfortable in the system (both offense and defense), but now that he is, he knows that he can be super aggressive. When you know that you are only getting limited minutes, you can expend a whole lot of energy for a few possessions before going back to the bench.

A lot of people were worried while he was in high school that he sometimes just sat in the background of games and didn't assert himself (which was a legitimate concern), but the DJW we are seeing now can definitely not be described with those words. I definitely agree with your comment on his ceiling. He has the tools and potential to be a GREAT player over the course of the next three years.

 

[haasi]

Rayvonte did this a fair amount. But, to your point, not much of that this year.

Nunn is the kind of athlete who could do this, but you have to have guys who can (a) draw defenders out and create space around the baseline backdoor; and (b) make that entry pass.

Tate is a very able passer, but with him in the game, his defender is free to sag and help out, allowing other defenders to stay on baseline. We pretty much need Nunn's shooting on the perimeter to create enough space for Nunn to work the baseline - posing the obvious problem that Nunn can't be in two places at once.

At some point, we should have enough perimeter scoring threats who can pass that this can work, but right now, defenses are too glued to Nunn to allow him to get free baseline.

 

[BirdDog9048]

I agree in theory. Trouble is, I'm not sure how much you can play him and Hill together. If they're the 2 and 3, neither is an ideal 2 and that means both JCL and Nunn are sitting and you've got shooting struggles. If they're 3 and 4, the problems with rebounding and interior defense that have plagued this season pop up.

Malcolm Hill is on the all-you-can-eat diet next year. That's the starting point, and you build the team from there.

But what if they're 1 and 3? :thumb:

 

[89illinigrad]

AHHH, we have too much talent to play!!

Let's hope some waivers aren't won and some players leave/are removed or we will not be able to keep everyone happy!!

:thumb:

JK, but it is interesting, as some will truly be unhappy with their PT, assuming we have all those guys here. (Obviously, if you aren't playing, you are probably not happy, but when you have proven you can produce, and still don't get time, it is more warranted....ex: if DJ or Mav barely see the floor.)

Perhaps we go with 40 minutes of mayhem, with a full court press and up tempo offense. No one player plays more than 25 minutes a game, so that everyone stays fresh.

 

[BirdDog9048]

Nunn is the kind of athlete who could do this, but you have to have guys who can (a) draw defenders out and create space around the baseline backdoor; and (b) make that entry pass.

Tate is a very able passer, but with him in the game, his defender is free to sag and help out, allowing other defenders to stay on baseline. We pretty much need Nunn's shooting on the perimeter to create enough space for Nunn to work the baseline - posing the obvious problem that Nunn can't be in two places at once.

At some point, we should have enough perimeter scoring threats who can pass that this can work, but right now, defenses are too glued to Nunn to allow him to get free baseline.

While I agree with your general case for why we can't do it, I've seen this play enough times this year to know that where there's a will, there's a way.

 

[Greensboro]

I'll defer to your sources, but my understanding was he was a 3/4 guy and had some wing skills.

If he plays D, he will find his way on the floor.

The other opportunity for Kipper is rebounding, we are somewhere very near pathetic on the glass, if Thorne or Black doesn't make it back the case gets stronger to find another rebounder.

 

[bleedsorangenblue]

If he plays D, he will find his way on the floor.

This more than anything seems to be the key to getting playing time for first year guys. We have been so bad defensively, that anyone who can be a decent defender is going to get some tick.

 

[Rad]

The other opportunity for Kipper is rebounding, we are somewhere very near pathetic on the glass, if Thorne or Black doesn't make it back the case gets stronger to find another rebounder.

Agree with this and along the same lines it is easier to look like a 4 in our practices than actual B1G games.

 

[TCTORNADO]

The other opportunity for Kipper is rebounding, we are somewhere very near pathetic on the glass, if Thorne or Black doesn't make it back the case gets stronger to find another rebounder.

Nichols was the leading rebounder on a loaded King James AAU team.

 

[haasi]

While I agree with your general case for why we can't do it, I've seen this play enough times this year to know that where there's a will, there's a way.

Well, if we had Jimmy Butler, it might be different

 

[BirdDog9048]

Well, if we had Jimmy Butler, it might be different

Well obviously, but my point is that NBA defenses are often glued to Butler, but that doesn't prevent him from getting open for dunks. Clever play design and proper spacing would allow for it to happen. We could even run it similar to the Bulls with Finke being the trigger man. Move Mav out to the opposite baseline, which is actually one of his preferred mid range shots, and the basket should be open for an attacking wing.

 

[Greensboro]

I agree in theory. Trouble is, I'm not sure how much you can play him and Hill together. If they're the 2 and 3, neither is an ideal 2 and that means both JCL and Nunn are sitting and you've got shooting struggles. If they're 3 and 4, the problems with rebounding and interior defense that have plagued this season pop up.

Malcolm Hill is on the all-you-can-eat diet next year. That's the starting point, and you build the team from there.

I agree with this...Hill playing more 3 and less 1/4/5 will squeeze down minutes for wings & I don't think DJ is close to ready to play the 4 (behind Black/Finke/Kipper). His minutes could easily go down next year from how much he has played the last few games, even if he improves vastly.

 

[Second and Chalmers]

I don't think DJ is close to ready to play the 4 (behind Black/Finke/Kipper).

There just is not any evidence that Kipper is ahead of DJW, regardless of position, regardless of roster situation. The only way that can get into someone's head is the kind of optimism bias towards the unknown player as opposed to the known one that I'm talking about.

 

[TCTORNADO]

DJW under normal circumstances would have been redshirted.

 

[illiniknight]

These are all great discussions but as we have seen the roster can change quickly. While Abrams will almost certainly be on the roster and Black is probably a decent bet at this point, Thorne could be more of a longshot. You take him off and it creates quite a ripple effect on positions and playing time.

 

[Greensboro]

Nichols was the leading rebounder on a loaded King James AAU team.

I'm cautiously optimistic that he will find some meaningful minutes, because of defense & rebounding which are huge holes currently, the versatility (you may have mentioned that a few pages back) will allow him to play 3/4 should also help.

 

[TCTORNADO]

I'm cautiously optimistic that he will find some meaningful minutes, because of defense & rebounding which are huge holes currently, the versatility (you may have mentioned that a few pages back) will allow him to play 3/4 should also help.

High motor, too. Will not show lack of effort or disappear..

 

[Greensboro]

There just is not any evidence that Kipper is ahead of DJW, regardless of position, regardless of roster situation. The only way that can get into someone's head is the kind of optimism bias towards the unknown player as opposed to the known one that I'm talking about.

There is never going to be much evidence that someone sitting out is ahead of anyone on the roster, so it speculation either way. We are a dreadful rebounding team, we are a dreadful defensive team, and the only evidence that DJW can play the 4 is his quote that he wanted to play the 4, but he is still a stick figure at the 3, let alone the 4. Austin's minutes have been going down, but he is still seeing some situation minutes on defense. I think you mistake blind optimism for realizing that the rumored qualities that Kipper is supposed to bring to the table are a couple of things that we badly need. I'm not buying that DJW is ahead of Kipper at the 4 next year,because there isn't any evidence that DJ is even on the depth chart at the 4, which is most likely where Kipper's greatest opportunity is next year.

 

[Second and Chalmers]

There is never going to be much evidence that someone sitting out is ahead of anyone on the roster

Of course there is, if their high school pedigree indicates it.

We had every reason to believe Frank Williams was going to leapfrog Nate Mast in 2000, for instance.

 

[Hands Malone]

Also, if we have Black and Thorne (or a 5th year big replacement), our rotation is overcrowded as it is.

Abrams
TJL
JCL
Nunn
Hill
DJW
Black
Finke
Mav
Thorne

10 guys! Too many, probably. And that's shunting Aaron Jordan out, who has shown flashes on a college floor, something Nichols is yet to do.

I think I'm being misinterpreted here. I'm not saying Kipper can't ever be productive, I'm saying there are both player-based and roster-based reasons to think he won't have a big role to play on next year's team, good bad or indifferent.

I wouldn't pencil either Thorne or Black into a starting equation. I also would not stop recruiting juco or 5th year bigs if and when the NCAA gives Illinois the nut punch on Thorne and Black doesn't have a come to Jesus moment.

 

[Greensboro]

Of course there is, if their high school pedigree indicates it.

We had every reason to believe Frank Williams was going to leapfrog Nate Mast in 2000, for instance.

Ok, so you seem to be discounting Kipper's HS/AAU based on his 3 star/not ranked/ college offers which obviously don't impress you, discounting practice reports (which I'm ok with), rebounding comment from TC means nothing, if 1/2 the rumor that he can play some defense is true, does the extra 15 pounds Kipper carries suggest he might be a better fit at 4, does the eye test looking at the 2 lie, have you seen anything from DJ Williams to suggest he is ready to play the 4 or is even on the depth chart at the 4 or is because DJ was higher ranked that we make the blanket statement that he is ahead of Kipper at every position. I like DJW, & I'm not making any bold predictions he isn't buried on the depth chart next year; but I am saying is if the rumors on his defense & rebounding are half true he fills 2 needs where we are dreadful this year and he has a chance of finding the floor and I don't think DJW is the answer to either of these needs at the 4 right now, because to me I have seem nothing that says he is ready to be a 4 in the B1G yet, and that is not to say he can't get bigger and stronger there and be an option, but I would put him in the category of Brian Randle per Obelix previous post a few back.

 

[Tevo]

DJW under normal circumstances would have been redshirted.

I was just wondering, if we get the waivers to go through, and Black is back, if we don't see the rare sophomore redshirt after playing as a freshman. Aaron Jordan, for example, isn't likely to see a lot of floor time next year with legitimate PGs on the roster and JCL, Nunn and Malcolm showing so much scoring potential. The year after that, however, there is serious 2/3 time available with Kendrick and Malcolm gone and only incoming freshman to fill in. Having JCL as a junior, Jordan as a soph, and then recruits as freshman would be a nice group.

 

[ATL Chief]

Of course there is, if their high school pedigree indicates it.

We had every reason to believe Frank Williams was going to leapfrog Nate Mast in 2000, for instance.

Not only did he leapfrog...He completely delivered: 11.4 Pts, 3.4 Reb, 4.1 Ast

 

[Greensboro]

I wouldn't pencil either Thorne or Black into a starting equation. I also would not stop recruiting juco or 5th year bigs if and when the NCAA gives Illinois the nut punch on Thorne and Black doesn't have a come to Jesus moment.

It is a bit of a dilemma, hopefully we get a quick decision on Thorne so we know if we can pursue another 5th year prospect, my fear is that you can only get so serious with any 5th year candidate without offering him Thorne's scholarship, so if the decision timing on Thorne drags out we could miss the window.

From the quotes, I think Black survives his current issue (IMO, not a lock), but I'm sure his leash just got a lot shorter. Paul situation has me thinking the worse situation is him getting kicked off late summer after 5th year/late signees are already enrolled. If he messes up in the summer, we have no chance of filling the scholarship. So with Black there is a chance he doesn't survive this issue, the risk he messes up again with worse timing, or the risk that he/his mom says he needs to be closer to home and transfers.

My biggest fear is that we lose both too late in the game to try to fill either scholarship and we go into next year with Finke/Mav as our only true bigs.

 

[Foggy Notion]

Well, if we had Jimmy Butler, it might be different

We have someone who looks like Jimmy Butler. Does that count?