Pregame: Illinois at Penn State, Saturday, January 28th, 3:30pm CT, BTN

[haasi]

Penn State, Northwestern, Iowa, Nebraska and Rutgers. The road games against Maryland, Indiana, Michigan and Purdue are behind us.

We're really not in as bad of shape as the narrative right now. Not sure why so many people reacted as if Michigan was the death blow.

Mainly because of how bad we looked. We had also beaten Michigan badly at home, we're still winless on the road, and we'll need road wins to get to the tourney. TA looks bad. Hill has been only OK. Tate still getting time. It wasn't so much that a decent team in our position couldn't make the tourney. It was that the evidence suggested we weren't a decent team.


If we come together and play reasonably well, we can definitely make the tourney. Last night was a teeny step in the right direction and avoided a catastrophic step in the wrong direction. It was a home win against a bad team with their best player at 10% strength - probably our easiest remaining game of the season. If we win at Penn State, I'll start to get my hopes up again.


I hope if Groce salvages the season that he can also salvage his chances of getting Mark Smith

 

[Kathy]

I don't see us winning this one, although I'd sure like us to. We don't play defense like it is supposed to be played. I wanted to throw a shoe at the TV when Hill (our Senior), allows his man to get the inbounds pass under the basket....... He looks listless and not really into the game. I hate that because he is so talented.

 

[ChiefIllini]

I think Hill drops close to 30 in this game. It seems to be a trend against defensively tough teams that he has to take over. If you've watched any PSU games this year you'll know they are a top 50 team defensively. Offense is their issue. All depends if Hill's fade away and 3 pt shot is hitting.

Something interesting I've noticed--we seem to pound the ball with Mav and Black early and often in games. When it works, we get off to a great start, when we can't beat the double team down low, we get lost offensively. It's a great strategy but we seem to abandon it once we start hitting 3's. Not enough of this type of stuff in the second half. Need to continue to give it to Mav all game long, he's shown the ability to pass it back out too. Ironically, I might say he's our second best offensive player (maybe second best overall). I'll take a MM with a side of MH please.

 

[Calvin]

Win this one and things start to get interesting for tourney purposes. Lose and we need to sweep Minny and Wisky at home which is unlikely.

It's a pick-em game we REALLY need to keep our hopes alive.

 

[The Dave]

We're really not in as bad of shape as the narrative right now. Not sure why so many people reacted as if Michigan was the death blow.

I don't think it was from a resume standpoint, it was from an execution standpoint. The team looked BAD at Michigan, especially in light of how well we played them at home.

 

[Second and Chalmers]

Mainly because of how bad we looked.

No, I 1000% agree. We look like a team that's going to fall on the wrong side of the bubble. Even last night was a fairly pedestrian performance.

But if we are to fail, the losses that seal that failure have yet to happen.

Even losing this upcoming game wouldn't be the end. We lose the next two and then lose to Minny at home, THAT'S the game where it died.

It seemed to me that some reacted to Michigan like it was the end. It was not.

 

[LurkLongandProsper]

No, I 1000% agree. We look like a team that's going to fall on the wrong side of the bubble. Even last night was a fairly pedestrian performance.

But if we are to fail, the losses that seal that failure have yet to happen.

Even losing this upcoming game wouldn't be the end. We lose the next two and then lose to Minny at home, THAT'S the game where it died.

It seemed to me that some reacted to Michigan like it was the end. It was not.

I think Michigan marked the end of hope under Groce long-term moreso than anything short term. I still don't find our resume very impressive, and think we will have to find a way to play well against the good teams in the conference (beating UM, OSU, Iowa who are all at the bottom won't get us to the dance) which is something we have not done yet. As others have emphasized, this game is big, because while winning doesn't shift the needle too much, losing will hurt tournament hopes/odds, badly.

 

[UofIChE06]

Win 3 of the road games (tall task I know) and only lose at home to Wisc and they are in the tourney 100% barring an embarrassment at the BTT depending on how seeding works out. The SOS and RPI being inflated will carry this team despite not having a truly marquee win. All of those posters claiming the team needs a "signature win" need to remember the college football playoff is over. That resume feature is in no way necessary to secure a bid in basketball.

With 2 road wins they can likely still get in with the 9-9 record if they have a moderately successful BTT. The good thing is the team has one of the easiest remaining BT schedules while only being a few games back of the top 3-4 teams. Most of the conference is right there with them at 3-5 or so.

 

[UrbanaIsTheShiz]

I have begun to look forward to these posts on each game thread

It is indeed inevitable. It is our destiny.

I think it goes further than that. We will play either Cal or Dayton in the First Four. Winner gets to coach Illinois next year.


Or we play KState and the entire Illini Basketball Community just self destructs regardless of result.

 

[UrbanaIsTheShiz]

The scripted substitutions need to stop. It's the most idiotic thing I've ever seen and points to the staffs inability to identify hot hands or guys that aren't performing. When you're on a roll, keep the hot group in for God's sake. Don't solve your opponent's problem for them. Make them stop you before you try something different.

And can we PLEASE watch a couple of coaching videos on how to get the ball inbounds against pressure and advancing against a press? We're going to see it against PSU. They're tough and quick and they watch game film.

I'm sure the guys enjoyed punching the other team in the mouth coming out of the gate instead of being the punching bag. Need to do it again at PSU and keep punching until THEY stop us. Don't stop ourselves!

Really good analysis on all fronts.
The scripted subs are so stupid. Slavish analytics What about game flow and hot hands?


Inbounds and full court pressure tactics is pathetic. Heres a clue: don't leave Finke as the only guy bringing the ball up. Love the kid, not about him.


And if you do capture the lead, don't celebrate, let up, or relax, You might still lose some of the lead but don't show the opponents you are easing up - they'll reflexively look for the gas pedal. Celebrations are for the locker room. You haven't won anything in the first half.

 

[Second and Chalmers]

Really good analysis on all fronts.
The scripted subs are so stupid. Slavish analytics What about game flow and hot hands?

What if the hands are hot because they are playing knowing they have 4-5 minutes followed by a rest?

Players like the security of knowing how much they will play and when. In the NBA, rotations are even more slavishly adhered to than in college, because players essentially demand it.

That's not "analytics", that's managing the energy and emotion of your players.

 

[UrbanaIsTheShiz]

What if the hands are hot because they are playing knowing they have 4-5 minutes followed by a rest?

Players like the security of knowing how much they will play and when. In the NBA, rotations are even more slavishly adhered to than in college, because players essentially demand it.

That's not "analytics", that's managing the energy and emotion of your players.

I see the point of that, but I think perhaps you can swing the pendulum too far, and you get little or no cohesion or organic play as modules are swapped in and out. And you can just flat kill momentum. But Groce has a lot of kids who deserve to play and so maybe it dos make more sense than I initially recognize. Good points Second.

 

[Old Number 51]

What if the hands are hot because they are playing knowing they have 4-5 minutes followed by a rest?

Players like the security of knowing how much they will play and when. In the NBA, rotations are even more slavishly adhered to than in college, because players essentially demand it.

That's not "analytics", that's managing the energy and emotion of your players.

Not even close......


Ask anyone on this board that ever played this game if in the same scenario what they would have been thinking? On a 10-0 run at the start of a game, the crowd is going crazy, and the other team is on their heels.


I'll eat the laces off my old Air Jordans if one of them would be thinking "I sure hope coach pulls me so I don't get to tired to play my best"


Real players would want to stomp on Iowa's throat in the situation we had last night!!


Here's to hoping JG gives our best players a chance to beat the Notnay Lions and is not going by his not so successful clipboard and stop watch!!!!

 

[Second and Chalmers]

I'll eat the laces off my old Air Jordans if one of them would be thinking "I sure hope coach pulls me so I don't get to tired to play my best"

It's not about hope, it's about knowing, with certainty ahead of time, what your minutes are.

I don't know whether that is the case or not, but the flipside of your post is TJL at tipoff thinking "I'm only in until the first TV timeout so I am going to go a million miles an hour while I'm out here".

And Tracy or Tate or whoever is on the bench going "Here I come" rather than "aw geez, I hope I get to play tonight".

Having to look over to your coach with puppy dog eyes to get in the game or stay on the floor is not a confidence-inducing thing to have to do.

 

[CoalCity]

What if the hands are hot because they are playing knowing they have 4-5 minutes followed by a rest?

Players like the security of knowing how much they will play and when. In the NBA, rotations are even more slavishly adhered to than in college, because players essentially demand it.

That's not "analytics", that's managing the energy and emotion of your players.

This isn't hockey where you play a shift at 100% max effort and then go out. These kids play hoops for hours in their free time. They don't need a rest after 4-5 minutes. The last thing you want to happen when you're kickin a** and takin names is to sit down and watch the whole thing grind to a halt when the subs go in and then have to go in and try to get the momentum started again.

We scored 10 points in the first 4 minutes and 2 in the next 4. So now the momentum is gone, the starters are asking themselves what the hell do they need to do to stay in the game, the crowd is turned off...It's just senseless to throw out the anchor like that especially with how bad we've started most games. Ride your success until it's clear that the wave is petering out THEN bring in the shock troops for a few minutes. The bench plays hard for several minutes and hopefully holds the line and bring in the starters again. They're starters for a reason. If one or two of the bench guys are killin it leave them in for a while.

Just not a fan of the preprogrammed substitutions. If the starters suck by all means shake things up as quick as you can. When they're steamrolling the opponent it's just ridiculous to take them out while they're cookin. Time to shorten the bench. This isn't the Kentucky team from a few years ago when they had two units that might have been #1 and #2 in the country.

 

[Old Number 51]

It's not about hope, it's about knowing, with certainty ahead of time, what your minutes are.

I don't know whether that is the case or not, but the flipside of your post is TJL at tipoff thinking "I'm only in until the first TV timeout so I am going to go a million miles an hour while I'm out here".

And Tracy or Tate or whoever is on the bench going "Here I come" rather than "aw geez, I hope I get to play tonight".

Having to look over to your coach with puppy dog eyes to get in the game or stay on the floor is not a confidence-inducing thing to have to do.

My point is that there is no way to script any players minutes at any level and not hurt your teams performance. Every player is different and plays at different levels every game. (sometimes your hot, sometimes your not) That's where the coaches skill at adapting to game /player situations comes into play. That's why I think this team, and his past teams struggled as there is no rhythm to our play.


I don't have puppy dog eyes .....


If I wanted to play more than my team mates I would play harder and smarter than them and that makes the coaches decision for him.


JMO

 

[Bailey]

It's not about hope, it's about knowing, with certainty ahead of time, what your minutes are.

I don't know whether that is the case or not, but the flipside of your post is TJL at tipoff thinking "I'm only in until the first TV timeout so I am going to go a million miles an hour while I'm out here".

And Tracy or Tate or whoever is on the bench going "Here I come" rather than "aw geez, I hope I get to play tonight".

Having to look over to your coach with puppy dog eyes to get in the game or stay on the floor is not a confidence-inducing thing to have to do.

Really great point.

 

[AEX]

One of the 3 or 4 road games that's possibly winnable for this team (@Rutgers & @Neb, and maybe throw in @Iowa if Jok is still hurt).

Buuuut I'll side with the recent 18 month or so history of the Illini not winning back to back big ten games. And the even more recent history of this team getting embarrassed on any court but Lou's.

Illinois is up by 5 at half, final score ends up a frustrating 74-66 PSU over Ladders.

Yup. Seen too many positive home games followed by dismal away games. Yesterday was a continuation of that trend, not an indication of some new upward trajectory. Would LOVE to be proven wrong.

 

[Captain Bubbles]

A scary fact about Penn State this year, they have no senior on their roster. A young team, yet talented and full of potential.

Note that former Illini recruiting target Tony Carr plays for them.

 

[Foggy Notion]

What if the hands are hot because they are playing knowing they have 4-5 minutes followed by a rest?

Players like the security of knowing how much they will play and when. In the NBA, rotations are even more slavishly adhered to than in college, because players essentially demand it.

That's not "analytics", that's managing the energy and emotion of your players.

I agree. The Warriors substitution patterns for the key players are like clockwork, regardless of what is happening in the game or the magnitude of the game, including the Finals.

 

[oldman]

There is nothing wrong with programmed substitutions so long as the coach adjusts to the actual game. No one would have anticipated our start in the Iowa game. When it happened, it should have been ridden regardless of the programmed substitutions. When we lost momentum with the first wave of substitutions, the next adjustment should have been made. JCL is a great example. He came out on fire, was out too quickly, and lost the fire for the rest of the game. To their credit, I suspect ultimately Finke got more minutes because of his play. A game is a living thing. Otherwise a coach could leave written instructions on the bench and watch from the locker room.

 

[haasi]

To their credit, I suspect ultimately Finke got more minutes because of his play. A game is a living thing. Otherwise a coach could leave written instructions on the bench and watch from the locker room.

Just came out of a meeting wheee someone quoted the adage "No battle plan survives contact with the enemy.” Applicable

 

[Deleted member 11241]

It's not about hope, it's about knowing, with certainty ahead of time, what your minutes are.

I don't know whether that is the case or not, but the flipside of your post is TJL at tipoff thinking "I'm only in until the first TV timeout so I am going to go a million miles an hour while I'm out here".

And Tracy or Tate or whoever is on the bench going "Here I come" rather than "aw geez, I hope I get to play tonight".

Having to look over to your coach with puppy dog eyes to get in the game or stay on the floor is not a confidence-inducing thing to have to do.

+1

I haven't had an issue with the substitutions as some people have. I get the whole momentum thing, but at some point you have to rest your starters. For the most part it seems JG is taking these guys out before the under ... TV timeout to give them a little extra breather. I see it happen a lot in college bball, it's smart. Better to give your guys 5 min rest and only miss a couple minutes of game time, than missing potentially 5 min of game time. Or only getting a 3 min rest and having to put them back in because the subs lost the lead and possibly having to burn a timeout as well.

Could be that due to the injuries this team has suffered the past couple years and seeing how guys like MH were just wore down by the end of the year that Groce is trying to give these guys as much rest as possible so maybe we have fresher legs down the stretch. I think this is especially needed for someone like TJL who didn't have the offseason to condition.

Bottom line is, we won this game. Whether anyone is happy with substitution patterns or not. Even when the subs came in, Iowa never got closer than 9 , I believe. Could be wrong about that. But as soon as the starters came back in, we extended it and kept them from stealing the momentum

 

[ILLHangOut]

One of the things that is manifesting itself with that is that we're playing too many guys. We played 10 guys double digit minutes last night, and that's leaving Jordan and DJW on the bench. Everyone on the roster has game experience, so now everyone is a mouth to feed. That's a tough situation as the coach.

And Groce says it all the time, he wants the best group to seize the reins. With Finke suddenly demanding time on the floor it seems like we're further from that, not closer.

Tracy, Tate, and Thorne get 10 minutes per game total depending on the matchups. Jordan and DJW get minutes sparingly.

As I mentioned in the other thread - if Kentucky with all their talent can manage a roster with 7 guys getting 90% of the minutes, and 2 guys getting the remaining 10%, then we can too.

 

[breadman]

Caught an earlier PSU game out of curiosity.
If Iowa is the youngest team in the league, PSU can't be far behind.
The announcers mentioned they have 4 kids from the same Philly high school. Some of those are freshman. Then, they have a redshirt freshman for a center and boy did he look good and smooth and long.