2017 Coaching Carousel

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#4,551      
DoctorofJazz
LurkLongandProsper said:
Refer to Cahall's post, but really your comments are just showing me you haven't actually looked at the resume of either very closely and are just locked in on "midmajor coach bad" that seems to plague some people's thinking after the Groce and Beckman flops.
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1. I don't consider coaching a boarding school to be the same as coaching a college team.

2. Yes, Keatts coached under Pitino. Yes he was part of a championship team. For a grand total of 3 years.

3. He's been at UNCW for less than three years and made one NCAA tourney appearance. So what?
 
#4,553      
ILLHangOut
haasi said:
Just want to remind everyone at this time - when everyone seems to counting him as dead man walking - that while extremely unlikely, still not completely impossible Groce keeps his job. It's been a year of historic upsets and overcoming impossibly long odds (Cubs, Cavs, Pats, Trump). At one point in the game the other day, Falcons had 99.6% chance of winning.

Groce in all likelihood gets canned. Just something to keep in back of mind until he is fired or season ends. Let's say he goes on tear, starting with Northwestern tonight and builds enough confidence that he manages to get Mark Smith. Or he finishes season poorly but doesn't get fired before conference tourney, then goes on lucky run, wins tourney, makes the Sweet 16, gets Smith, and has vocal support of the whole incoming class. Not likely, but worth remembering that long odds =/= fait accompli. Also not saying he'd deserve to stay, but until season's over he can still make it very tough to fire him.
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If the rumors are true that Whitman is already pursuing candidates, then I don't think there is any turning back regardless of how well Groce does the rest of the season. I think finishing this year strong would raise next year's expectations though.

How dramatic would that be if your scenario played out? I'd need to hire an intern to help me current with the all the threads here.
 
#4,554      
OrangeKrus28
DoctorofJazz said:
1. I don't consider coaching a boarding school to be the same as coaching a college team.

2. Yes, Keatts coached under Pitino. Yes he was part of a championship team. For a grand total of 3 years.

3. He's been at UNCW for less than three years and made one NCAA tourney appearance. So what?
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I don't understand why other people like myself and this guy don't have this same mindset? Some people here are more focused on finding the next diamond in the rough rather than going for a safer and more reputable candidate. Fortunately, I think Josh Whitman won't be taking any risks when he makes his new hire.
 
#4,555      
Bogey99
LurkLongandProsper said:
The quoted post shortened the span of Cuonzo predecessors without shortening Cuonzo's to year 1, for example, just to try and make a point, which is textbook confirmation bias. I posted the OP with 3 before v 3 under Cuonzo year spans for comparison. My OP wasn't even to state Cuonzo is a bad coach, just that the 'program builder' label he's being granted is unfounded in facts.
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How relevant is a team's record three years before a new coach arrives? Likely only the freshmen from that team would still be around, and they probably didn't play much as freshmen. Did you purposely include three seasons prior just to try and make a point? Who is showing confirmation bias here?

One prior season shows more of what he inherited and looking at all three of his seasons shows what he's done once he starts getting his own guys. Like S&C stated, it's not drastically better, but there is general improvement shown.
 
#4,556      
Second and Chalmers
Bogey99 said:
How relevant is a team's record three years before a new coach arrives? Likely only the freshmen from that team would still be around, and they probably didn't play much as freshmen. Did you purposely include three seasons prior just to try and make a point? Who is showing confirmation bias here?
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In this particular case, 1 or 3 years doesn't make a ton of difference. It tells the same story.
 
#4,557      
haasi
OK I just listened to Carp's take on the 200 level -

Cuonzo HC bringing along Tracy Webster and Tim O'Toole. Keeping Walker. Keeping entire 2017 class + adding Smith. Also bringing along Charlie Moore for a sit out year. Seems crazy, but hey - if Cuonzo can manage that, I'm all in.
 
#4,558      
dweebs19
haasi said:
OK I just listened to Carp's take on the 200 level -

Cuonzo HC bringing along Tracy Webster and Tim O'Toole. Keeping Walker. Keeping entire 2017 class + adding Smith. Also bringing along Charlie Moore for a sit out year. Seems crazy, but hey - if Cuonzo can manage that, I'm all in.
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If he can do that, I'm all on the Cuonzo train too. Who is Carp tho?
 
#4,559      
Second and Chalmers
haasi said:
OK I just listened to Carp's take on the 200 level -

Cuonzo HC bringing along Tracy Webster and Tim O'Toole. Keeping Walker. Keeping entire 2017 class + adding Smith. Also bringing along Charlie Moore for a sit out year. Seems crazy, but hey - if Cuonzo can manage that, I'm all in.
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I would imagine a Charlie Moore transfer would send Frazier to the exit door, but that's still probably an upgrade.

That definitely seems like the smart play from a recruitnik, recovering JFG cultist perspective.
 
#4,562      
OrangeKrus28
Question: If Illinois loses by 30-40 pts(like Iowa did to Northwestern), does Whitman decide that Groce has lost the team and fires him and let's one of the assistants take it for the rest of the season? It wouldn't make much sense b/c it doesn't give Illinois a leg up but it might make sense for everyone to get clarity and due to the fact that the Illini have no shot to make the NCAA's.

I think it is just as likely that they lose by 30 as if they lose by 5.
 
#4,563      
haasi
DoctorofJazz said:
Not really. He hasn't built anything of substance yet. When 5-6 years have elapsed and UNCW has made consecutive NCAA tourneys with good records, then I'll be impressed.
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he'll get a high major job long before that happens
 
#4,564      
illynifan34
OrangeKrus28 said:
Question: If Illinois loses by 30-40 pts(like Iowa did to Northwestern), does Whitman decide that Groce has lost the team and fires him and let's one of the assistants take it for the rest of the season? It wouldn't make much sense b/c it doesn't give Illinois a leg up but it might make sense for everyone to get clarity and due to the fact that the Illini have no shot to make the NCAA's.

I think it is just as likely that they lose by 30 as if they lose by 5.
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No. How many different ways does this question need to be asked and answered?
 
#4,565      
RickBB
I'm fine with Keats, Martin or Williams...and trust that Whitman will make the right decision and do a proper vetting and evaluation of them all. I can see the pro's and con's to each...but frankly with a new arena and the culture Whitman is trying to instill throughout the department....I think we are at the dawning of an entirely new era of Illini Athletics. (Yes, I'm drinking all the Kool Aid Whitman has to offer)

I am surprised the VB search isn't wrapped up yet though, especially with the "list of possible coach hires" he supposedly keeps in his desk drawer...(I know, off topic but we are talking Cycling and EPL in this thread too).
 
#4,566      
Second and Chalmers
DoctorofJazz said:
When 5-6 years have elapsed and UNCW has made consecutive NCAA tourneys with good records, then I'll be impressed.
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Well, don't hold your breath. Kevin Keatts will be a Power Five head coach in two months.

Demand for proven winners at the lower level exceeds the supply. You get the big job before you've shown it beyond a reasonable doubt.
 
#4,568      
OrangeKrus28
haasi said:
he'll get a high major job long before that happens
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Then, at that point, he will be stuck in mediocrity just like Brad Brownell, just like Johnny Dawkins, just like Kevin Willard. Or, he could be a success story. But, nobody knows, and quite frankly, I'm not worried about taking those types of risks anymore for our program.
 
#4,569      
Second and Chalmers
OrangeKrus28 said:
Question: If Illinois loses by 30-40 pts(like Iowa did to Northwestern), does Whitman decide that Groce has lost the team and fires him and let's one of the assistants take it for the rest of the season? It wouldn't make much sense b/c it doesn't give Illinois a leg up but it might make sense for everyone to get clarity and due to the fact that the Illini have no shot to make the NCAA's.

I think it is just as likely that they lose by 30 as if they lose by 5.
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The timing of Groce's firing will have everything to do with protecting the long-term best interests of the program under the next coach.

I have yet to hear an argument that that long-term interest would be advantaged by firing him midseason.
 
#4,571      
Tevo
golferjohn1970 said:
The more I think about it the more I think it comes down to Cuonzo or Keatts. If JW can get Archie Miller then he should do it and don't look back but I think he will either get the NC State job next month or next year it's just a matter of time. Cuonzo is improving as a coach and his teams improve every year wherever he has gone. He is a good program builder and that's what we need. He would turn this around so would Keatts so I'm good with either
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These are the three names that seem to make the most sense to me, but they are all very different, so it's hard to predict. Martin can certainly recruit, but I'm not sold on him taking an existing team and making it much better. Miller, I believe, is a good coach and gets a lot out of his teams, but I'm not convinced he can recruit top notch players. Keatts seems like he could be a good recruiter AND a good X's and O's coach, but doesn't have the resume to prove it at this level yet. I suspect Miller and Martin have similar floors and ceilings, to use the cool kid jargon, but that Keatts has both the lower floor and higher ceiling. It will come down to Josh's confidence, I think. Assuming it's even down to one of those guys...

I could get behind any of the three.
 
#4,572      
OrangeKrus28
Second and Chalmers said:
The idea that Cuonzo Martin isn't a risk is false.
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I don't think he is a risk whatsoever. I think he is a "safe" choice. That doesn't mean he's the best choice, but I would take the "safe" choice knowing he can recruit and turn the program around within 1 year rather than take a chance with a relatively unknown who has little experience and no Midwestern ties and who will take multiple years to turn the program into a meddling 9-9 Big 10 team. Keatts is not going to be able to out-coach the big boys in this conference. It is way too big of a jump.
 
#4,573      
Second and Chalmers
OrangeKrus28 said:
I don't think he is a risk whatsoever. I think he is a "safe" choice.
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He's not. Period.

He may be a "safer" choice than some others, but Cuonzo could absolutely fail spectacularly and push our program even further from relevance.

You don't hire the safe coach, you don't hire the hot coach, you don't hire the coach the media didn't think you could get, you don't hire the high upside coach, you don't hire the win the press conference coach, you hire the RIGHT coach.

Cuonzo could be that guy. But it's not because anything is safe or assured or guaranteed.
 
#4,574      
Second and Chalmers
OrangeKrus28 said:
I would take the "safe" choice knowing he can recruit and turn the program around within 1 year rather than take a chance with a relatively unknown who has little experience and no Midwestern ties and who will take multiple years to turn the program into a meddling 9-9 Big 10 team. Keatts is not going to be able to out-coach the big boys in this conference. It is way too big of a jump.
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This is complete nonsense. The arc of a program's success has absolutely zero to do with the experience or qualifications of the guy taking the job.

John Groce turned the program around in Year 1. Lovie Smith is going to be a long, painful rebuild.

You're getting your wires crossed here.
 
#4,575      
mattcoldagelli
OrangeKrus28's Risk-free Candidate List:

1. Calipari
2. K
3. Pitino
4. Self
5. Roy

Let's make Illinois great again you guys
 
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