Illinois Hoops Recruiting Thread (October 2018)
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Joel Goodson
- respect my decision™
+infinity
Who are the "handlers"? We arbitrarily talk about handlers whenever we lose recruits. We lost a talented recruit because of handlers, somehow the handlers only appear after an OV is set but not before? Why? Please explain.
Illinois would not be favored right now with talented recruits. Talented recruits would favor someone else. It is also a misconception that talented recruits just like to come to CU because it is a paid visit to some kind of resort. Recruits (especially out-of-state) take OVs on schools that have some level of interest. It does not mean that every school has equal chances going into OVs, but it does open the door, an opportunity, to convince them and close.
GortTheRobot
- North Bethesda, Maryland
I'm 50-50 on the effectiveness of the OV for OT, but there is a possible reason it may have been a good attempt: BU worked with Huggy, and perhaps he could have been trying to get OT to buy into the fact that he knows how to use OT as well as Huggy does, and has the added attraction of immediate playing time at UI. Not implying that it would be his only, or even best, pitch, but...why not?
BananaShampoo
Captain 'Paign
- Phoenix, AZ
How convenient. That was going to be my prediction anyway.
A 1 in 302,575,350 chance. If you buy two tickets, you have two 1 in 302,575,350 chances.
Can't win if you don't play! For me it's worth the $2 just to dream for a couple days what if.
Just like I can dream for the next day what if Oscar commits here.
TownieMatt
CU Expat
- Chicago
This staff has fully adopted the "Shoot your shot" mentality with official visits. They're clearly comfortable bringing in guys where most national analysts would say we're not a likely destination.
I did a look back at official visits over the past couple years, just to get an idea of how many were "shoot your shot" guys (Gonna call them SYS below), where we are perceived as an unlikely destination when the player visited. This list is from the 247 site, so if I've missed anyone, let me know.
'19 Prospects:
Food for thought: Are we ok with the fact that about half of our officials are guys that we aren't expecting to land? It's an approach that hasn't really paid off to this point.
I did a look back at official visits over the past couple years, just to get an idea of how many were "shoot your shot" guys (Gonna call them SYS below), where we are perceived as an unlikely destination when the player visited. This list is from the 247 site, so if I've missed anyone, let me know.
'19 Prospects:
- Drew Timme - SYS - We're not seen as a leader by anyone nationally.
- Quincy Guerrier - SYS - Again, not seen as the leader. Most picking Syracuse ahead of the visit.
- Oscar Tshiebwe - SYS - Most saw him as a strong WVU lead heading into the visit.
- Terrence Shannon - Not a SYS - Who knows what's going on here, but given connections with MIF, not really a SYS.
- EJ Liddell - Not a SYS - Were involved with him for a long time. We were considered the leader at certain points.
- Anthony Walker - Not a SYS - Seemed like an attainable prospect when we brought him in, but smart money is on Miami now.
- Giorgi Bezhanishvili - Not a SYS - can't be an SYS if no one else is really recruiting them.
- Samba Kane - Not a SYS - was a reclass whose recruitment really hadn't gotten hot yet.
- Tevian Jones - SYS - Probably the only real example of us landing an SYS. I don't think many had us as a leader in this one until after the visit, especially with Arizona (who he called his dream school at one point) offering.
- Flo Thamba - Not a SYS - Wasn't all that highly-touted. More of an available late in the process type.
- Talen Horton-Tucker - Not a SYS - Not going to relitigate this one.
- Ayo Dosunmu - Not a SYS - Highly ranked, but not a SYS guy. Most had us as the team to beat and were involved for a long time prior to the visit.
- Elias Valtonen - SYS - Kind of came out of nowhere. European kid.
- Lukas Kisunas - SYS - Was a Antigua connection that seemed to come out of nowhere and fizzled out fast.
- George Conditt - Not a SYS - This one seemed very attainable. There was some suggestion that he may have committed if we had gone all-in sooner.
- Landers Nolley - SYS - This is a close one. There was some smoke that we had a real shot here, and were maybe even the leader, but national guys seemed to think he wasn't going to leave the east coast. And that turned out to be right.
- Colin Castleton - Not a SYS - Similar to Nolley. I think this one is close, but I'll say not a SYS because I think we were the leader before Michigan came in late.
Food for thought: Are we ok with the fact that about half of our officials are guys that we aren't expecting to land? It's an approach that hasn't really paid off to this point.
Joel Goodson
- respect my decision™
Good analysis, but Valtonen was not an SYS.
I only count 7 SYS. But I also think ranking/position is important to consider. If we are shooting our shot on guys that there is a minimal chance of us getting picked, and are low ranked, then yeah, 1 out of 7 isn't good and should be reconsidered. But for highly ranked and highly needed players, I honestly don't think 1 out of 7 is that bad.
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Deleted member 654622
D
Guest
Or Oregon as we just personally witnessed such a short time ago
My 2 cents, looking at 2019, I'm fine with all the SYS, what we seem to be missing is more guys we feel we can get. What I would like to see is a few more of the guys we should be favored on. There was some tension around Ayo, but we were favored most of the way. I would have thought Shannon, EJ, & Okoro were going to be those guys. Not that we had to get all of them, but we don't seem to be getting any of them. Not even that they have to be ranked that high, but some early commits that fill needs and set the class floor...then there is much more margin to go after the SYS in your analysis. This year we really need to get 1 big committed early even if he is a 150 + prospect that is likely to contribute a couple of years down the road to give us some margin for error on the SYS guys.
Oh come on. Nothing nefarious here - "handlers" would be anyone advising the kids. They exist and they are different for every kid - but would include some mix of parents, guardians, AAU staff, HS staff. Maybe "handlers" was a poor word choice, but the meaning overall is the same. The advisors filling the player's ear. And these things are often well known - TSJ has mom favoring Illini, dad not favoring us, etc.
Newman's point (not necessarily mine - I'm just helping with the reading) seems to be that when you know the advisors are squarely pushing for one school, maybe it's not worth using the OV. Others would say Swing for the Fences and see what happens. Ultimately, it's on the coaches to gauge interest and use visits accordingly. So if they feel that they have a shot, they should absolutely go for it.
In a few weeks, we'll get to actually see how their strategy - swing for the fences and then fill in the gaps with second, third, fourth etc. level back up plans - plays out on the court. Even if we take our lumps this season, will we have pieces in place to build a foundation for the future? No one really knows that...I am excited to see what we've got.
I agree and so as a friend I will take your winnings and bear the burden...you're welcome
I'll take the billion and roll the dice.
How well has that corollary worked the last 10 years??????
If you mean "handlers" are advisors, then everyone has handlers. These advisors do not suddenly appear after the OVs, they are there before the OVs are set as well. In that case, we have been doing a good job getting "in" with advisors setting OVs but we seem to not be able to convince them during and after the visit. What makes advisors different for Oscar T than Drew Timme? I doubt people on this message board know even who they are (thus the question) let allow know what they tell Oscar T.
There were not many posts saying "we should not go after Oscar T because he has handlers" before the OV but the hearsay of handlers always gains momentum once the writing is on the wall. That is Monday Morning Qaurterbacking. Of course, hope dies last. Oscar T is about to announce and it is not looking good, yet Drew Timme is about to take his OV to Illinois. Do Timme's advisors currently favor Illinois?
It would be a lot more honest for posters to come out and say before OVs "we are wasting our time with recruit X because he has handlers." Not because he is a highly ranked recruit and we have not shown the ability to close, but because he has "handlers." (that is different). Rather than all these posts about "handlers" appear afterwards, which makes them disingenuous. JMO.
0...for 0scar?
IllFanInMi
I
Guest
We just need something to pop to get the positivity and momentum going. The Big has 26 early commits, or on average each team has 2. Surely the N.L.O.I. signing day swiftly approaching will increase the numbers. Should we not get a verbal prior to, or a N.L.O.I. and say 10 more commit to the Big, WOW! UGLY! WOW!
We got Ayo last year and then crickets until the spring, so going backwards. I’m up in the air on who we should spend OV’s on, none of us are flys on the wall. BUT, numbers just can’t lie, nor does history, albeit a short one.
Enough excuses as to why our fall recruiting has not yielded commits. There are way too many examples of schools doing just fine with much less history, recent winning, facilities, yada yada yada.
USC has the #1 class, coach on the job less than 5 years and I had to look him up. I certainly don’t think of USC as b-ball school with any tradition. Sure, decent teams and talent during our recent low points, but how are they and other staffs doing it?
We got Ayo last year and then crickets until the spring, so going backwards. I’m up in the air on who we should spend OV’s on, none of us are flys on the wall. BUT, numbers just can’t lie, nor does history, albeit a short one.
Enough excuses as to why our fall recruiting has not yielded commits. There are way too many examples of schools doing just fine with much less history, recent winning, facilities, yada yada yada.
USC has the #1 class, coach on the job less than 5 years and I had to look him up. I certainly don’t think of USC as b-ball school with any tradition. Sure, decent teams and talent during our recent low points, but how are they and other staffs doing it?
The Dave
- CA
Man, if you had asked me when I woke up this morning I would have thought my chances of winning the MegaMillions jackpot was better than my chances of seeing a Tina Turner GIF. Does that mean I should or should not buy a lottery ticket?
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