With the news that Jake Arrieta is going to have season ending surgery, I looked back at the Cubs’ decision to go with Darvish over Arrieta. The consensus was that the Cubs were going to sign one of the two, although hindsight might be that they shouldn’t have signed either, and instead have gone with a cheaper option like Chacin, Mikolas or Minor.
Still the Cubs favored Darvish from the start and eventually signed him for 6 years at $126MM. Arrieta signed a really complicated contract with the Phillies that looks like it’s going to be a 3 year $75MM contract when it’s all said and done.
Darvish’s first year was a complete disaster, only pitching 40 innings. Arrieta had the better year by default, although it wasn’t up to the standards of his years with the Cubs. This year, Darvish has been the better pitcher and seems to be getting better and more comfortable as he goes along. Arrieta got hurt.
In the aggregate, Arrieta has pitched 308 innings with a 4.26 ERA and Darvish has pitched 179 innings with a 4.37 ERA, but should get another 50-ish innings this year and has seen his ERA going the right direction over the last couple months. Arrieta has been paid $55MM and Darvish has been paid $45MM.
I don’t think there’s any question who the vast majority of people would pick to have next year - Darvish at $22MM or Arrieta at $20MM. Arrieta is having surgery. Even though he’s supposed to be healthy come Spring Training, it’s still an easy choice. After that Arrieta heads to free agency while Darvish will have three years left at a very reasonable $59MM.
Looking at the list of 2021 free agents, it’s hard to see any potential free agents as accomplished as Darvish signing a 3 year, $59MM contract.
So, I think you can still argue that the choice between Darvish and Arrieta should have been “neither,” but if you had to choose one, the Cubs might still have gotten it right even though the first year was a complete blow out.
