All that I am concerned with is, does the team look better, does the team play better. If we reach a point that it appears Lovie is incapable of taking us any higher then, a new decision has to be made. This team started out a couple of years ago with not having the size or the strength to compete in the B1G. They have enough age and experience now to at least be competitive for the most part. The strength will continue to improve.
Illini Football 2019
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ChiefGritty
- Chicago, IL
Call it top 70ish in the S&P, F/+ type rankings.
Famous last words, but I have absolutely no fear about failing to win 6 games against our schedule if we can make that jump.
Comparable teams last year: Arizona, Indiana, Wake Forest. If we can't get to that level with the roster in the shape it's in, sustained success under this administration becomes a very remote possibility and our chances are better elsewhere.
lstewart53x3
- Scottsdale, Arizona
I think that’s a fair bar to set.
At Hiring - 80% chance Lovie succeeds, 30% chance coaching search result succeeds. Not like you'd fire a coach the day you hire them anyway, but regardless it's not a close call.
After 2016 - 60% chance Lovie succeeds, 30% chance coaching search result succeeds. Still not a close call, but disturbing portents were seen that first year.
After 2017 - 45% chance Lovie succeeds, 33% chance coaching search result succeeds. Total dumpster fire season, no pulse through year two, shovels in the ground on facility and roster turnover underway.
After 2018 - 33% chance Lovie succeeds, 33% chance coaching search result succeeds. A razor-sharp call. 12 million reasons to stick with Lovie (a buyout which, by the way, harms the chances for the search by diverting money elsewhere)
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Gritty, Lovie's plan has been to give his recruits an extreme amount of playing time in 2017 and 2018 as the youngest team in the country, with the expected payoff in 2019 and 2020 when that experience shows through. As the results of this strategy so far have been about what you would expect, and we have a promising QB situation the next few years, I don't see any reason that Lovie's chances for success here have gone down since he started.
I'm not saying he will succeed (though I am hopeful), but your take that our chance for success has declined drastically has completely misunderstood Lovie's rebuild strategy, and we don't really know much how this is panning out until we see how we do this year and next.
After 2016 - 60% chance Lovie succeeds, 30% chance coaching search result succeeds. Still not a close call, but disturbing portents were seen that first year.
After 2017 - 45% chance Lovie succeeds, 33% chance coaching search result succeeds. Total dumpster fire season, no pulse through year two, shovels in the ground on facility and roster turnover underway.
After 2018 - 33% chance Lovie succeeds, 33% chance coaching search result succeeds. A razor-sharp call. 12 million reasons to stick with Lovie (a buyout which, by the way, harms the chances for the search by diverting money elsewhere)
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Gritty, Lovie's plan has been to give his recruits an extreme amount of playing time in 2017 and 2018 as the youngest team in the country, with the expected payoff in 2019 and 2020 when that experience shows through. As the results of this strategy so far have been about what you would expect, and we have a promising QB situation the next few years, I don't see any reason that Lovie's chances for success here have gone down since he started.
I'm not saying he will succeed (though I am hopeful), but your take that our chance for success has declined drastically has completely misunderstood Lovie's rebuild strategy, and we don't really know much how this is panning out until we see how we do this year and next.
I have the same record 8-4 but I believe we beat Purdue. I would love to beat Michigan in a tight game though.
Deleted member 654622
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So I was wondering what next year's roster could look like, considering the conversation about the composite rankings came about (I know, jumping the gun). But, I wanted to know if the roster was looking like taking another jump forward. Is Lovie still progressing us forward type of stuff. Now I am not sure how 247 came up with their number, they show 80 commits at an average of 84.9. When I moved it to excel, I get 81 with an average of 84.9. So there maybe some wiggle room somewhere.
But we lose (if no one leaves early) - 11 seniors, 933.89 total points, 84.8991 average. Interesting
Remaining roster - 70 players, 5943.04 total points, 84.9006 average
Current commits plus Derrick Smith - 9 newbies, 778.34 total points, 86.4822 average
If everyone signs and stays 2020 roster 79 players, 6721.38 total points, 85.0808 average
So still an increase...in the recruit rankings
But we lose (if no one leaves early) - 11 seniors, 933.89 total points, 84.8991 average. Interesting
Remaining roster - 70 players, 5943.04 total points, 84.9006 average
Current commits plus Derrick Smith - 9 newbies, 778.34 total points, 86.4822 average
If everyone signs and stays 2020 roster 79 players, 6721.38 total points, 85.0808 average
So still an increase...in the recruit rankings
Deleted member 654622
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Looking at the composite rankings, the bottom 40 consist of players such as:
Vederian Lowe 83.65
Bobby Roundtree 83.26
Casey Washington 83.23
Alex Palczewski 83.19
Sydney Brown 82.94
Reggie Corbin 82.44
Nate Hobbs 81.43
Caleb Griffin 80.28
Jamal Woods 80.05
and THEE Blake Hayes dead last 74.97
Vederian Lowe 83.65
Bobby Roundtree 83.26
Casey Washington 83.23
Alex Palczewski 83.19
Sydney Brown 82.94
Reggie Corbin 82.44
Nate Hobbs 81.43
Caleb Griffin 80.28
Jamal Woods 80.05
and THEE Blake Hayes dead last 74.97
Brilliant analysis my friend. Not just because I concur.
I think this is a good way to think about it.
My post was in response to the whole “is it still okay to use the Beckman excuse” question. Which, fits into your “Lovie’s probability of success” percentage in that with each successive year it drags the % down less. How much less is subjective and different per fan.
I can stomach that. I just get triggered when I keep hearing Beckman's name. Lovie controls his own destiny now
I'm going with my earlier called 7-5, based on the following:
Go Illini!
- WAG. Wild *ss Guess
- I'm an optimist
- Last year's defense won four games
- We've got a bigger stick, now
Go Illini!
I can only see 5 wins. If the defense shows me something today, I will become more optimistic. Heading to Champaign shortly from Brownsburg, IN.
Deleted member 656517
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Your drive won’t be in vain
Don’t judge the defense by today. The likelihood that anything that happens today is sustainable is close to 0.
I arrived at my season predictions by looking at the probability of losses, as if I was planning to bet against the beloved. My assessed probability of regular season outcomes, in order of likelihood:
P(6-6) = 35%
P(7-5) = 25%
P(5-7) = 20%
P(8-4) = 10%
P(4-8) = 5%
Didn’t see that coming = 5%
Submitted for late season gloating or to be forgotten entirely, depending on outcome.
P(6-6) = 35%
P(7-5) = 25%
P(5-7) = 20%
P(8-4) = 10%
P(4-8) = 5%
Didn’t see that coming = 5%
Submitted for late season gloating or to be forgotten entirely, depending on outcome.
So a sixty percent chance of six or more wins. I think you scienced the heck out of that. I like it!
Obvious statement for the year: Keep Brandon Peters healthy
Could the Illini be 5-0 heading into the Michigan game? Based on first week results so far, it doesn't seem that far fetched. UConn barely beat Wagner; E. Mich. hasn't kicked off yet; Nebby hasn't exactly looked like world beaters with just a 14-7 lead over S. Ala at halftime, and Minny only beat beat South Dakota St. by 7. I know, I know, way too early. But it feels good to have some hope.
Deleted member 656517
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Why was Nebby ranked in the top 25 to begin with? I get they have a good qb,but they did go 4-8 with what defense?
Health.
It needs to be factored in.
IF our team is healthy, then the likelihood of a 5-0 remains highly promising.
5-0 is possible with a healthy roster, but I wouldn’t say promising. We would have to beat teams with experience and talent to get there
Agreed, also thinking we're going to be vanilla cause we're new to each other and getting better each week, but it works as schedule gets harder, we'll have enough each week. 6 wins. Gotta stay healthy though, next man up!
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Ultimately I think our wins will depend on injuries. Who and what point in the season. We are lucky with scheduling if we stay healthy through 5 weeks
EMU doesn't look as scary as it did earlier. Nebby, Minnesota, and Purdue all look like possible Ws. I know it's only week 1 but the team actually looked prepared and composed in comparison to some of our other BIG West foes.
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