2019-20 Coaching Discussion/Carousel

[ChiefGritty]

I mean the only reason she didn't allow it was she wanted to let the AD they hired be able to hire his coach.

Great, then create an AD timeline compatible with the college football hiring schedule. Josh Whitman would have taken the job any day it was offered to him. Ugh, I am still upset about this.

At the time, Mark retired to pursue more endeavors of a religious nature. Not sure he has changed his mind. He went to high school, college, and retired in S FL so, I am not sure a northern school would have a real shot. But, who knows?

He doesn't want to do it anymore, has said so publicly, not that it was at all unclear watching much of his Miami tenure, and he has more than enough money to make sure he never has to.

Bob Stoops and Urban Meyer will be back, but I bet we never see Mark Richt as a college head coach again. Good for him, it's an awful grind. If you're not addicted to it the way many are, get the heck out.

there is a direct correlation between winning and AAR.

Well duh. The question is whether the correlation with average recruit quality is stronger than with aggregate class rankings, or perhaps the talent composite 247 puts together now.

I don't have the math or excel skills to pull that off.

 

[Hoppy2105]

NOT!!!!!

I watched triple option football for 4 years at the Air Force Academy (and the 11 years since I graduated). The only time it’s not fun is when you lose...just like Every. Other. Offensive. Style. And we’ve seen plenty of examples of service academies doing well recently.

I think people assume that just because we go triple option, we would look exactly like Air Force, Navy, or Army. (When it comes to size/speed/athleticism)

This won’t be the case. The service academies have a tough sell when it comes to recruiting:

1. They have certain weight standards that have to be met, so they can’t automatically go after the biggest guys, even if those guys WANTED to come. (OL and DL are most affected here)

2a. Academic standards are very high. Even if a player can get in, staying eligible is tough work and really displays the “student” part of student athlete.

2b. If the players CAN’T get in right away (which is A LOT) they go to a prep school. Basically it’s an automatic redshirt. This could deter some guys from coming who could play right away at a school with lower academic standards.

3. Recruiters have to try and hide the fact that these kids will be going to a military school. Many of the players think they will be coming to play football and that the non-football players are the ones in the military. It’s a rude awakening on day one when they are getting screamed at by training instructors/senior cadets. Some players find out about this and decide not to go. Others leave quickly and a select few stick it out.

I say all of this to show that the school itself is more of a deterrence to getting top talent than the style of football. Service academies run the triple option because it makes them competitive with the limited talent they are able to pull in.

Illinois would have NONE of those restrictions. (With the exception of academic...but it still isn’t as tough as the academies)

So, even if we ran a triple option offense, much like Gritty has said, it could/probably would include lots of high caliber players because we are recruiting to a B1G school and not a service academy.

Thus, it will be exciting. (As long as we win)

 

[ILL_INI]

Then agree to disagree. I'll take the latter scenario and I'll beat you every Saturday.

Purdue's offense isn't hurting without Rondale Moore because they're thin at WR. They're hurting without Rondale Moore because they don't have another Rondale Moore type talent.

Purdue had 414 yards on offense, 291 yards passing and scored 31 points. What is your basis for saying Purdue's offense is hurting? They did fine without Rondale Moore, especially since they also lost their starting qb on the same play.

 

[Twangers]

Well duh. The question is whether the correlation with average recruit quality is stronger than with aggregate class rankings, or perhaps the talent composite 247 puts together now.

I don't have the math or excel skills to pull that off.

There is, or at least there was before I discovered this board. It was compiled by a guy named Adam, who used to be the authoritative figure on NFL Compensatory Selections. He was the first guy to crack that algorithm.

247 is a generally solid resource and widely accepted so I reference them often but they do a number of different things that I either view as entirely wrong or simply annoying.

 

[ChiefGritty]

247 is a generally solid resource and widely accepted so I reference them often but they do a number of different things that I either view as entirely wrong or simply annoying.

The team talent composite is such an obvious idea that's been hanging out there forever. Not sure the data is squeaky clean though. These things ultimately rely on ground-level knowledge and human resources as much as whiz-bang website mechanics.

 

[Twangers]

Purdue had 414 yards on offense, 291 yards passing and scored 31 points. What is your basis for saying Purdue's offense is hurting? They did fine without Rondale Moore, especially since they also lost their starting qb on the same play.

Minnesota has one of the worst defenses in the FBS.

They play Penn State Saturday. You’ll see soon enough.

 

[ILL_INI]

Minnesota has one of the worst defenses in the FBS.

They play Penn State Saturday. You’ll see soon enough.

I see, so once they play Penn State, then their offense will be hurting without Rondale Moore. I guess you'll really show me then.

By the way, Minnesota is ranked 40th in Total Defense, 92nd in Scoring Defense. Not that I'm interested in debating Minnesota's defensive status, but Georgia Southern scored two defensive touchdowns, and if you took those away they would be ranked 65th in scoring defense.

 

[ChiefGritty]

By the way, Minnesota is ranked 40th in Total Defense, 92nd in Scoring Defense.

67th per SP+, 48th per FEI. They're bang average, it's simply incorrect to call them one of the worst in FBS.

 

[Twangers]

I see, so once they play Penn State, then their offense will be hurting without Rondale Moore. I guess you'll really show me then.

By the way, Minnesota is ranked 40th in Total Defense, 92nd in Scoring Defense. Not that I'm interested in debating Minnesota's defensive status, but Georgia Southern scored two defensive touchdowns, and if you took those away they would be ranked 65th in scoring defense.

Therein lies the problem, if you take away non-offensive TDs for one team you need to read each box score for every team and apply as necessary. Taking them out for Minnesota gives you nothing of value.

If you don't see thw value of judging things based off of the level of competition, we won't have much to discuss now or at any point in the future. Purdue is a lot of trouble.

 

[ChiefGritty]

Therein lies the problem, if you take away non-offensive TDs for one team you need to read each box score for every team and apply as necessary. Taking them out for Minnesota gives you nothing of value.

Absolutely correct. But that logical fallacy seems so familiar... Somewhere else in this thread...

The ranking for Florida in 2019 is incorrect, unfortunately. It includes Diwun Black, who never enrolled and I believe ended up going the JuCo route. He’s a 247 composite .93 4* star kid that they have factored.

When he’s eliminated, their score falls outside the top 10.

 

[Hoppy2105]

This is better than TV.

 

[Twangers]

Absolutely correct. But that logical fallacy seems so familiar... Somewhere else in this thread...

Ah, wrong again my young rogue.

You should have guessed by now that I'm right on some things, wrong on many others but more in tune with recruiting related analytics than most anyone here, yourself included. If your assumption is that I haven't already factored this (Long before this exchange, for note), you will leave tonight disheartened.

 

[ILL_INI]

Therein lies the problem, if you take away non-offensive TDs for one team you need to read each box score for every team and apply as necessary. Taking them out for Minnesota gives you nothing of value.

If you don't see thw value of judging things based off of the level of competition, we won't have much to discuss now or at any point in the future. Purdue is a lot of trouble.

The large discrepancy between total defense and scoring defense should give you an idea that this wouldn't be the case for every team. Scoring defense doesn't take into account scoring by the opponent's defense (or field position), and isn't really a very good measure, if that was the basis of your ranking of Minnesota's defense. And if it wasn't, what facts were you basing it on?

Funny that you mention judging things based off the level of competition. You want to base Purdue's poor offensive performance without Rondale Moore on a game that hasn't even been played, against one of the better defenses in the country with which Purdue would struggle against even with Rondale Moore. I don't know what board you were on in Texas that would accept these types of "facts," but we don't do that here on IL.

 

[Twangers]

The team talent composite is such an obvious idea that's been hanging out there forever. Not sure the data is squeaky clean though. These things ultimately rely on ground-level knowledge and human resources as much as whiz-bang website mechanics.

Admittedly, I'm being a little harsh. My disdain for their process here has festered for years and that water has begun to boil over.

I understand this is not life or death, it's rating football recruits and I don't want to make it out to be anything more than that but I do believe 247 knows that their system is flawed but spits it out anyway. I don't care to lecture them on moral hazard but I also believe they should feel some level of duty to put forth the effort to correct the incorrect. And if you fail, you can always spit this same stuff out again. People will eat it.

Projecting 18 year old kids is mind numbing if not impossible but a system that tells me Kevin Tyler, Phifer Griffin and Quentin McCoy have nearly 20% ADDITIONAL value over that of Justin Fields is categorically wrong and frankly, a little embarrassing.

 

[Deleted member 654622]

Would the hiring of Dino affected our ability to get the facility?

I think your asking for clarification to my question? If you are then yes. I would like to know, if we hired Dino back then, would the donors have come forward to build that brand new football facility? If the answer is no, then I am glad we didn't get him. The only way Dino is a plus over that facility is if he came in and started winning 8+ every year. Now, we have the opportunity to not only have that place, but also Dino. See what I mean?

 

[ChiefGritty]

Projecting 18 year old kids is mind numbing if not impossible but a system that tells me Kevin Tyler, Phifer Griffin and Quentin McCoy have nearly 20% ADDITIONAL value over that of Justin Fields is categorically wrong and frankly, a little embarrassing.

Justin Fields like Ohio State's Justin Fields?

Am I missing something?

I agree with your general point that the methodologies these sites use are opaque and screwy.

 

[Twangers]

The large discrepancy between total defense and scoring defense should give you an idea that this wouldn't be the case for every team. Scoring defense doesn't take into account scoring by the opponent's defense (or field position), and isn't really a very good measure, if that was the basis of your ranking of Minnesota's defense. And if it wasn't, what facts were you basing it on?

Funny that you mention judging things based off the level of competition. You want to base Purdue's poor offensive performance without Rondale Moore on a game that hasn't even been played, against one of the better defenses in the country with which Purdue would struggle against even with Rondale Moore. I don't know what board you were on in Texas that would accept these types of "facts," but we don't do that here on IL.

Ok, pot and kettle I guess. You're telling me as a basis of fact that Purdue would struggle against Penn State without Rondale Moore when you have no evidence to bring to the table to support it. So, huh, apparently "we" do exactly that here.

Not sure a Texas reference was needed as I only have allegiance to this university but I can tell you what people there would respond with, they'd respond with the old "We do lots of things in Texas you don't do in Illinois. Like recruit good players, sell out stadiums and win football games. Lots of them". They take those comments seriously down there. I got enough of those earfuls down there. If they repeat here, I'll exit stage right.

 

[Hoppy2105]

I think your asking for clarification to my question? If you are then yes. I would like to know, if we hired Dino back then, would the donors have come forward to build that brand new football facility? If the answer is no, then I am glad we didn't get him. The only way Dino is a plus over that facility is if he came in and started winning 8+ every year. Now, we have the opportunity to not only have that place, but also Dino. See what I mean?

Yeah, I guess I’m throwing it out there as a question for all. Would having the interim AD back in the day hire Babers have kept us from getting the football performance center?

If Dino came in and turned this thing around (to the tune of a 10 win season in year 3) then I submit we would still have a football performance center right now but could also be enjoying competitive football.

But I guess we will never know.

 

[Deleted member 654622]

I’ve been tracking football recruiting for most of adolescent to adult life, there is a direct correlation between winning and AAR. Doesn’t mean there aren’t exceptions to each rule and of course, not all winning season are created equal but the fact remains that higher end AAR programs are more successful than their counterparts, regardless of the number of kids they sign.

1 Rondale Moore (Composite 4* .91 recruit)will have a higher impact on wins and losses than 3 Trenard Davis’ (3*, composite .84 ranking). There’s simply too much factual data to try and change my thought on this.

Northwestern actually recruits significantly better than we do on an annual basis. They routinely sit in the middle of the Big Ten in AAR.

Sure, but what I am specifically talking about is when you have two or three Rondale Moore's teamed up with more Edwin Carter's .82 ranking kids (lets say the overall ends up being .84) and go up against a team that has less top and less bottom end talent ( lets say overall .86). One team with higher end talent vs one team with the overall team talent. I want to know who wins that game on average

 

[Twangers]

Justin Fields like Ohio State's Justin Fields?

Am I missing something?

I agree with your general point that the methodologies these sites use are opaque and screwy.

The very same. The 3 aforementioned players generate a higher composite team score than Justin Fields did/would. Don't mean to knock our guys, the McCoy kid has some talent and he excites me but this is fundamentally flawed in every way.

This is why you won't catch me quoting overall team rankings. I only generally look at the kids specifically and the overall AAR. Our 2019 recruits left me ecstatic, Cory and the rest of the guys did a phenomenal job. We will need numbers come 2021 but in general, last year set the bar for us.

 

[ChiefGritty]

Yeah, I guess I’m throwing it out there as a question for all. Would having the interim AD back in the day hire Babers have kept us from getting the football performance center?

If Dino came in and turned this thing around (to the tune of a 10 win season in year 3) then I submit we would still have a football performance center right now but could also be enjoying competitive football.

But I guess we will never know.

No matter how this all ends, it will remain true that the sudden arrival of Whitman and Lovie was a sudden rush of optimism into the program that was amazing to witness and tough to imagine Dino Babers replicating in terms of the moment of hiring.

It is also true that winning football games beats the heck out of a buzzy, surprising hire and a well-attended press conference in terms of energizing people and opening up donor wallets. Very possible Dino might have done that here, BUT, if it had taken a couple of years to do so, we'd be a lot further behind now on the project, just getting shovels in the ground maybe, and that's if and only if Babers had managed to succeed.

Lovie delivered financial results on Day 1, which delivered improvements to the infrastructure of the program, and that will be a positive legacy of Lovie no matter what else happens, in that sense I think Dude's point is fair.

 

[Hoppy2105]

The very same. The 3 aforementioned players generate a higher composite team score than Justin Fields did/would. Don't mean to knock our guys, the McCoy kid has some talent and he excites me but this is fundamentally flawed in every way.

This is why you won't catch me quoting overall team rankings. I only generally look at the kids specifically and the overall AAR. Our 2019 recruits left me ecstatic, Cory and the rest of the guys did a phenomenal job. We will need numbers come 2021 but in general, last year set the bar for us.

Too bad we couldn’t have gotten more of them for depth. :thumb:

 

[ILL_INI]

Ok, pot and kettle I guess. You're telling me as a basis of fact that Purdue would struggle against Penn State without Rondale Moore when you have no evidence to bring to the table to support it. So, huh, apparently "we" do exactly that here.

Well, at least I have the fact that Purdue struggled against a very good TCU defense with Rondale Moore as evidence. But see, here is where you and I differ. I will back off my statement and say that Purdue would probably struggle offensively against Penn State even with Rondale Moore. See how easy that is?

 

[Twangers]

Sure, but what I am specifically talking about is when you have two or three Rondale Moore's teamed up with more Edwin Carter's .82 ranking kids (lets say the overall ends up being .84) and go up against a team that has less top and less bottom end talent ( lets say overall .86). One team with higher end talent vs one team with the overall team talent. I want to know who wins that game on average

Sorry, I misread that. I'm trying to scour out this old study but if I remember right, it was a high advantage to the team with the higher overall AAR based on his algorithm.

That Adam was an interesting guy. He started guessing the NFL Compensatory Selections before they were announced to something like 95% accuracy and he posted on his blog at that time that the league tried to send him a cease and desist letter. It was definitely comical.

 

[Hoppy2105]

No matter how this all ends, it will remain true that the sudden arrival of Whitman and Lovie was a sudden rush of optimism into the program that was amazing to witness and tough to imagine Dino Babers replicating in terms of the moment of hiring.

It is also true that winning football games beats the heck out of a buzzy, surprising hire and a well-attended press conference in terms of energizing people and opening up donor wallets. Very possible Dino might have done that here, BUT, if it had taken a couple of years to do so, we'd be a lot further behind now on the project, just getting shovels in the ground maybe, and that's if and only if Babers had managed to succeed.

Lovie delivered financial results on Day 1, which delivered improvements to the infrastructure of the program, and that will be a positive legacy of Lovie no matter what else happens, in that sense I think Dude's point is fair.

I’m sure Lovie generated revenue, but I’ve read (on here) that people didn’t like Mike Thomas and donors were holding back.

Could the influx of funds still have happened simply because Whitman was a pro at fund raising? Isn’t he still getting large sums of money here and there from people when we’ve been terrible for 3+ years in football and 2 in b-ball. (Still hopeful for both)