Jan 4th Bracketology - Illinois #4 in first NET ranking

#1      

Dan

Dan
Admin
Dan
#5      

EyeoftheIllini

EyeoftheIllini
EyeoftheIllini
Yeah seems high to me too. Honestly though at this point I don’t really care except for the fact that means don’t have to make a big climb to be in that spot come tourney time.
 
#6      

Deleted member 29907

D
Guest
Deleted member 29907
Nice - always thought this was a top 8 team regardless of the misfires. Top 5 team is in reach when Belo and AceWolf get fully comfortable. Belo is pretty much there except for some of the TOs. Age really matters this year given the restraints from CVirus.
 
#7      

louisvilleillini

L
louisvilleillini
I guess by this standing we would be a #1 seed the last of the first four. I agree when Ace and Belo get more mins they will help with during the grueling BT season. There is still a lot of bbasketball to play.
 
#12      

Fighter of the Nightman

Fighter of the Nightman
Chicago, IL
Fighter of the Nightman
Dayummmmm. God, I would just love to see us beat an unequivocally great team here soon (will NU count still?), because our only losses are looking pretty damn good so far (vs. #2 on a neutral court, at #10 by 3 and at #17 by 3), and we are 8-3 (4-1) in the best conference in basketball and the metrics love us. We honestly have put together a GREAT season so far, and I am hoping this next stretch of not-so-impossible games piles on the wins. Here is our upcoming schedule, with those rankings, before what should be a monumental showdown with Iowa on Friday 1/29:

at #50 Northwestern
vs. #32 Maryland
at #186 Nebraska
vs. #28 Ohio State
vs. #42 Penn State
at #119 Michigan State :oops:

You can lose any night in the Big Ten, and I think both NU and MSU are "underranked" based on how good they can be in any given game, but we seriously could win all of those games. Wouldn't it be sweet to go into a matchup with a top 5/10 Iowa team at 14-3 (10-1)?! :D

P.S. I know it theoretically hurts us, but I literally burst out laughing seeing Duke at #115. :LOL: Coach K will definitely call for the season to be cancelled now!
 
#13      

Goode-for-3

Goode-for-3
Goode-for-3
TOP 50+1 (bolding B10 Teams)
Note that typically the top 30 teams almost always make the Tournament with teams 31-50 being "on the bubble".

1. Gonzaga
2. Baylor
3. Tennessee
4. Illinois
5. Villanova
6. Michigan
7. Iowa
8. Houston
9. Texas
10. Missouri
11. Wisconsin
12. Saint Louis
13. Boise St.
14. Colorado
15. Clemson
16. Colgate
17. Rutgers
18. Texas Tech
19. Oregon
20. Drake
21. Arizona
22. Florida
23. LSU
24. Arkansas
25. Syracuse
26. Southern California
27. Kansas
28. Ohio St.
29. West Virginia
30. Creighton
31. VCU
32. Maryland
33. Louisville
34. Virginia Tech
35. Oklahoma St.
36. Alabama
37. SMU
38. NC State
39. Winthrop
40. Colorado St.
41. San Diego St.
42. Penn St.
43. Minnesota
44. Seton Hall
45. Virginia
46. Xavier
47. Purdue
48. UConn
49. Oklahoma
50. Northwestern
51. Indiana
 
#15      

sacraig

sacraig
The desert
sacraig
Butters said:
Wow, that seems a bit high, but I would certainly take it!
Click to expand...

This is the value of starting with a high ranking at the beginning of the season and playing a hard schedule. You start high and losses don't hurt you that much. Everyone acting like the sky is falling has gotten a bit out over their skis.
 
#17      

Goode-for-3

Goode-for-3
Goode-for-3
Austin said:
www.ncaa.com

The NET, explained: NCAA adopts new college basketball ranking

The NCAA has developed the NCAA Evaluation Tool (NET) a ranking system that will replace the RPI as the primary sorting tool used to evaluate teams.
www.ncaa.com www.ncaa.com
Click to expand...

NET considers both the strength of opponent (Quadrant 1-4) and your Margin of Victory / Defeat. However, I believe that your margin is capped at 10 points. We have 2 losses by 3 points and all 3 losses are against top opponents so they don't really hurt us (aside from considering how much they would have "helped" if we won). We have also won 5 of our games by 10+ points, and another 2 by 8 and 9 points so our wins are counting as full blowouts. Having 4 'blowout' wins against Top 51 ranked teams is helping us a lot. The NET also seems to punish teams that play too many Q4 games even if they are complete blowouts like our +62 and +59 victories to start the season; having only 2 Q4 games is probably helping us compared to other teams that have more.

Losses: Q1=-16pts
(N) #2, by 13 (Q1)
(A) #10, by 3 (Q1)
(A) #17, by 3 (Q1)
Wins: Q1=+10pts; Q2=+37pts; Q3=+2pts; Q4=+20pts
(H) #308, by 62 (Q4)
(H) #339, by 59 (Q4)
(H) #90, by 2 (Q3)
(A) #115, by 15 (Q2)
(H) #43, by 27 (Q2)
(A) #42, by 17 (Q1)
(H) #51, by 9 (Q2)
(H) #47, by 8 (Q2)
Cumulative +/- pts per Quadrant: Q1=+-6pts; Q2=+37pts; Q3=+2pts; Q4=+20pts

#11 Wisconsin for comparison:

Losses: Q1=-2pts; Q2=-6pts
(A) #63, by 2 (Q1)
(H) #32, by 6 (Q2)
Wins: Q1=+0pts; Q2=+39pts; Q3=+10pts; Q4=+40pts
(H) #219, by 10 (Q4)
(H) #326, by 34 (Q4)
(H) #278, by 40 (Q4)
(H) #79, by 11 (Q3)
(H) #58, by 14 (Q2)
(H) #33, by 37 (Q2)
(H) #186, by 14 (Q4)
(A) #119, by 9 (Q2)
(H) #43, by 12 (Q2)
Cumulative +/- pts per Quadrant: -2pts; Q2=+33pts; Q3=+10pts; Q4=+40pts

Wisconsin is very similar, but their Q2 loss by 6 and having 2 additional Q4 games on their schedule are likely holding them behind us.

If you do a similar comparison for any team outside of the Top 10 I think you'd find similar results that show Illinois as clearly deserving the better NET rank.
 
#20      

Piotyr

P
Piotyr
NET on its own at this point is extremely volatile. Something like Sagarin or Pomeroy is much more stable at this point.

According to Massey's composite ranking: https://www.masseyratings.com/cb/compare.htm

Illinois is as high as 3 and as low as 31 (this rating, RT Power, is bonkers right now) in ratings across the internet, combining to a net composite ranking of 6, behind Gonzaga, Baylor, Michigan, Villanova and Wisconsin. Which...seems about right? Texas, Iowa, Houston right there as well, with Michigan State 54th, which feels right.
 
#21      

IlliniTime

IlliniTime
IlliniTime
It's crazy to see a ranking with Duke, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisville, Michigan St. all out of the top 10. Crazy I says!
 
#24      

Chukwuwumba

Chukwuwumba
Chukwuwumba
IlliniTime said:
It's crazy to see a ranking with Duke, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisville, Michigan St. all out of the top 10. Crazy I says!
Click to expand...
Makes you think in previous years, preseason practices weren’t exactly compliant.
More do to with the one and done rosters/ freshman heavy rosters
 
#25      

sacraig

sacraig
The desert
sacraig
Chukwuwumba said:
Makes you think in previous years, preseason practices weren’t exactly compliant.
More do to with the one and done rosters/ freshman heavy rosters
Click to expand...

I doubt it's a preseason practice issue. It's more like these teams rely on recruiting one-and-dones, who are prolific athletes but still freshmen. So without the preseason and exhibition time to jell, these teams are getting off to slow starts.

Live by the sword, die by the sword.