Illini Basketball 2020-2021

[IllinoisFan733]

I really wish our fan base would stop mentioning Michigan basketball on Twitter. It’s over. They likely ducked us. Move on. Same with continuing to antagonize Iowa fans after beating Rutgers. We beat them. Move on.

The epitome of a “act like you’ve been there before.” I know it’s been awhile for us, but boy is it embarrassing.

(now if Michigan wins the B1G as a result, they should never hear the end of it. But as of now, we look nuts).

One way to look at it:

If Michigan doesn't play all 20 games, they don't have opportunities to get wins either. Let's say they play 17 games and finish 13-4 with that rough schedule. We will still win the Big Ten Title if we go 15-5 or 16-4.

Just get wins baby.

 

[TheFameProtector]

I find it interesting that there's any doubt that a player with so much skill and craft in his game -- who already has a wicked smooth turnaround fadeaway 10' jumper -- might not develop a solid, if not elite, outside shot. Curbelo's form is not broken. It's just not consistent b/c he hasn't had to rely on it that much b/c he destroyed HS defenses with all his other skills. I would be surprised if AC doesn't return next year shooting at least 35% from three. Shooting is a skill you can improve upon, but it's hard to teach his level of craft and vision.

 

[grantlab]

I find it interesting that there's any doubt that a player with so much skill and craft in his game -- who already has a wicked smooth turnaround fadeaway 10' jumper -- might not develop a solid, if not elite, outside shot. Curbelo's form is not broken. It's just not consistent b/c he hasn't had to rely on it that much b/c he destroyed HS defenses with all his other skills. I would be surprised if AC doesn't return next year shooting at least 35% from three. Shooting is a skill you can improve upon, but it's hard to teach his level of craft and vision.

Agreed. DMFW is Exhibit A. You don’t have to be a volume 3 point shooter, you just have to be a threat. If Curbelo is good enough where defenses can no longer sag off of him when he’s got the ball on the perimeter, he’s going to have that much more room to operate and get to the basket like we’ve seen him do this year.

 

[LostinNebraska]

Agreed. DMFW is Exhibit A. You don’t have to be a volume 3 point shooter, you just have to be a threat. If Curbelo is good enough where defenses can no longer sag off of him when he’s got the ball on the perimeter, he’s going to have that much more room to operate and get to the basket like we’ve seen him do this year.

In addition to what we've been saying about his jump shot...If Fletch transforms Belo's body like he did with DMFW, that kid is gonna be a monster before he leaves. His 'before' pic looks like me and the dude has a ten pack now.

 

[2qtslow]

One way to look at it:

If Michigan doesn't play all 20 games, they don't have opportunities to get wins either. Let's say they play 17 games and finish 13-4 with that rough schedule. We will still win the Big Ten Title if we go 15-5 or 16-4.

Just get wins baby.

That depends on which method is chosen to select a winner, I persist in believing it will be W/L percentage because any other method punishes teams for being unable to play all of their games. The virus should not be held against anyone. The last time I looked, Michigan was scheduled to play 15 games, while we are set to play 19 (missing only Michigan). If we lose only once more in the regular season, we will finish at 15-4 (0.789). If Michigan goes 4-2 in their final six games, they will finish 12-3(0.800).

I am conflicted on this. I think W/L percentage makes the most sense where teams play an uneven number of games due to no fault of their own, but Michigan does not seem to trying very hard to make up the missing games. Gaming the system is a long-established and somewhat honorable pursuit, but this game has a smell to it. If we go 14-5 instead of 15-4, then I think 12-3 gives the title to Michigan anyway you look at it.

 

[Joel Goodson]

Agreed. DMFW is Exhibit A. You don’t have to be a volume 3 point shooter, you just have to be a threat. If Curbelo is good enough where defenses can no longer sag off of him when he’s got the ball on the perimeter, he’s going to have that much more room to operate and get to the basket like we’ve seen him do this year.

Never a bad thing (more room), but Curbelo pretty much goes wherever he wants.

 

[Bucktown]

That depends on which method is chosen to select a winner, I persist in believing it will be W/L percentage because any other method punishes teams for being unable to play all of their games. The virus should not be held against anyone. The last time I looked, Michigan was scheduled to play 15 games, while we are set to play 19 (missing only Michigan). If we lose only once more in the regular season, we will finish at 15-4 (0.789). If Michigan goes 4-2 in their final six games, they will finish 12-3(0.800).

I am conflicted on this. I think W/L percentage makes the most sense where teams play an uneven number of games due to no fault of their own, but Michigan does not seem to trying very hard to make up the missing games. Gaming the system is a long-established and somewhat honorable pursuit, but this game has a smell to it. If we go 14-5 instead of 15-4, then I think 12-3 gives the title to Michigan anyway you look at it.

If every opponent was equal then winning percentage w/l percentage makes sense but with wildly differing strength of schedules, it doesn't. Five of Michigan's eight wins are over the bottom four teams in the conference. They have only played two games (one home, one away) against teams in the top eight in the conference.

 

[JFGsCoffeeMug]

The last time I looked, Michigan was scheduled to play 15 games, while we are set to play 19 (missing only Michigan). If we lose only once more in the regular season, we will finish at 15-4 (0.789). If Michigan goes 4-2 in their final six games, they will finish 12-3(0.800).

This is one of the serious problems. We have been consistently prepared to play throughout the season, and we still have 7 games left to play on our schedule. Michigan is coming off of a pause, they chose to extend their pause, and they're only currently scheduled to play 6 more? What? Where is the urgency to reschedule the 5 other postponed games before the B1G tournament? Sure, we might hear something announced eventually, but until we do, the criticism remains valid. Every other team in the conference has been acting in good faith to make sure games happen. It is not yet evident that Michigan is operating with the same goal in mind.

BU told the media today that we had absolutely no input into the postponement of the Michigan game. That means Michigan unilaterally postponed it and the league office didn't stop them. Well, the league office now needs to step in to hold Michigan accountable. Make an effort to make up your games, just like everyone else has, or suffer some consequences (in the form of forfeits or disqualification from winning the league title).

 

[2qtslow]

If every opponent was equal then winning percentage w/l percentage makes sense but with wildly differing strength of schedules, it doesn't. Five of Michigan's eight wins are over the bottom four teams in the conference. They have only played two games (one home, one away) against teams in the top eight in the conference.

Unless and until we return to the old-fashioned home and away system against the entire league, there will always be different strengths of schedules. It is not Michigan's fault their schedule started out so easily. Still, it does seem to be their fault that they haven't tried harder to make up more of their missed games. Nebraska is basically playing three games every week for the rest of the year to get to 14 games. Michigan should be able to try harder.

 

[2qtslow]

This is one of the serious problems. We have been consistently prepared to play throughout the season, and we still have 7 games left to play on our schedule. Michigan is coming off of a pause, they chose to extend their pause, and they're only currently scheduled to play 6 more? What? Where is the urgency to reschedule the 5 other postponed games before the B1G tournament? Sure, we might hear something announced eventually, but until we do, the criticism remains valid. Every other team in the conference has been acting in good faith to make sure games happen. It is not yet evident that Michigan is operating with the same goal in mind.

BU told the media today that we had absolutely no input into the postponement of the Michigan game. That means Michigan unilaterally postponed it and the league office didn't stop them. Well, the league office now needs to step in to hold Michigan accountable. Make an effort to make up your games, just like everyone else has, or suffer some consequences (in the form of forfeits or disqualification from winning the league title).

Michigan's silence is the part that really bugs me. Even their fan forums seem to be asking WTF?

It seems like this Michigan team should have national championship ambitions very similar to our own. The Zags and Baylor have two slots pretty much locked up. Illinois and Michigan are two of about a half dozen teams looking to stake a claim for the other two 1 seeds. I think you stake such a claim by playing, and not by remaining mysteriously silent.

 

[Emerson Bigguns]

Agreed. DMFW is Exhibit A. You don’t have to be a volume 3 point shooter, you just have to be a threat. If Curbelo is good enough where defenses can no longer sag off of him when he’s got the ball on the perimeter, he’s going to have that much more room to operate and get to the basket like we’ve seen him do this year.

Players can develop a reliable shot over time, but it rarely happens over night.

Just considering some recent Illini point guards:

Demetri McCamey - Didn't shoot over 35% until Senior year
Chester Frazier - Didn't shoot over 35% until his senior year
Tracy Abrams - Didn't shoot over 35% until his 6th year in the program
Jaylon Tate - Never shot over 20%

It's not like these guys weren't trying to get better.

Granted, AC is more talented than these guys. Maybe his timeline will be shorter, but one offseason might be pushing it. I hope you're right and I'm wrong.

Right now, he looks like he doesn't want to shoot. Changing that mindset may be as big of an obstacle as actually making the shots.

 

[Ga65]

Players can develop a reliable shot over time, but it rarely happens over night.

Just considering some recent Illini point guards:

Demetri McCamey - Didn't shoot over 35% until Senior year
Chester Frazier - Didn't shoot over 35% until his senior year
Tracy Abrams - Didn't shoot over 35% until his 6th year in the program
Jaylon Tate - Never shot over 20%

It's not like these guys weren't trying to get better.

Granted, AC is more talented than these guys. Maybe his timeline will be shorter, but one offseason might be pushing it. I hope you're right and I'm wrong.

Right now, he looks like he doesn't want to shoot. Changing that mindset may be as big of an obstacle as actually making the shots.

His role at this point is not to shoot but to penetrate. Not sure we can access his shooting ability with so few shots. He is contributing in his role.

 

[Emerson Bigguns]

His role at this point is not to shoot but to penetrate. Not sure we can access his shooting ability with so few shots. He is contributing in his role.

I'm certainly not suggesting he should be hunting shots. It isn't who he is. That said, if you find yourself at the top of the key with the ball, and no one is within 5 feet of you... Right now he is turning down those looks. If you do that long enough, you get yourself into a Jaylon Tate situation where the defense just stops closing out, and the lane gets too crowded for you to be effective. (Unlike Jaylon Tate, Curbelo might be able to dribble around 5 people in an elevator, but its still pretty hard...)

He hasn't made a three pointer in a game since December 15th. He hasn't attempted one in our last 3 games.

Those facts alone give you enough information to assess his current relationship with his outside shot.

He obviously brings plenty to the table in his current state of development. These are remnants of a conversation on his NBA prospects, not his ability to positively impact Illini basketball presently. His gifts and contributions to the team's success are obvious.

 

[BWBW]

That means Michigan unilaterally postponed it and the league office didn't stop them. Well, the league office now needs to step in to hold Michigan accountable.

IMHO, the league office is a joke. IMHO.

 

[JFGsCoffeeMug]

Michigan's silence is the part that really bugs me. Even their fan forums seem to be asking WTF?

I've heard people state over and over again that it wouldn't be fair to ask Michigan to come back from their pause and have only three days to practice, prepare, and get in game shape before playing us. Well, contrary to popular belief, it turns out Michigan started that process a little earlier than Sunday at midnight. No other team in the league has acted like it would be ridiculous to play their first game a full week after coming out of a pause.

If Michigan women’s basketball team is playing tonight, why not the men?

Both teams had games scheduled for Thursday before an athletics-wide COVID shutdown.

www.mlive.com

While the department initially announced a two-week pause, both [men's and women's basketball] teams were able to get in the gym earlier. On Feb. 4, there were non-contact drills in small groups before ramping up to full team practices on Sunday.

 

[Whitewaterr]

I've heard people state over and over again that it wouldn't be fair to ask Michigan to come back from their pause and have only three days to practice, prepare, and get in game shape before playing us. Well, contrary to popular belief, it turns out Michigan started that process a little earlier than Sunday at midnight. No other team in the league has acted like it would be ridiculous to play their first game a full week after coming out of a pause.

If Michigan women’s basketball team is playing tonight, why not the men?

Both teams had games scheduled for Thursday before an athletics-wide COVID shutdown.

www.mlive.com

People keep worrying about how the team will perform post-Ayo but we will win the B1G title next year in three easy steps:
1. Schedule our first game vs. Nebraska
2. Win that game
3. Postpone the rest of our games indefinitely

 

[JFGsCoffeeMug]

It's by design that the league office has not clarified how they will award the conference title this year. They got burned by what happened in football, so they have remained strategically silent about how they will handle basketball. The leadership vacuum is immense.

Michigan basketball and the complicated Big Ten title race

What happens if the Wolverines don't play a full schedule?

www.mlive.com

 

[illinitiger]

What if Mich and Illinois end the regular season with the same number of losses...but one team has one more win than the other (due to not being able to make up all games thus the difference in total games played)....assuming Ill and Mich do not get to make up their game under this senerio who gets the conference reg season title???.....winning %???.....can't believe the conference would allow this type of senerio to take place....thinking they'll make ever effort possible to play this game to avoid that type of situation from possibly happening...to make it even more of a cluster....throw tOSU in the senerio with same number of losses as Ill and Mich....B1G gotta be running all these possibilities through their heads and praying for no more cancellations in the coming weeks

I think more likely scenario is they have one less win and one less loss...and overall higher percentage

 

[illinitiger]

Players can develop a reliable shot over time, but it rarely happens over night.

Just considering some recent Illini point guards:

Demetri McCamey - Didn't shoot over 35% until Senior year
Chester Frazier - Didn't shoot over 35% until his senior year
Tracy Abrams - Didn't shoot over 35% until his 6th year in the program
Jaylon Tate - Never shot over 20%

It's not like these guys weren't trying to get better.

Granted, AC is more talented than these guys. Maybe his timeline will be shorter, but one offseason might be pushing it. I hope you're right and I'm wrong.

Right now, he looks like he doesn't want to shoot. Changing that mindset may be as big of an obstacle as actually making the shots.

But Jaylon shot over 35% as a pro

 

[I11ini82]

His role at this point is not to shoot but to penetrate. Not sure we can access his shooting ability with so few shots. He is contributing in his role.

He passes up wide open 3s fairly consistently. If he was comfortable shooting the 3, I don't think any coach at any level would want him passing them up.

 

[Fanview]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1359972396749438982

Good thread.

 

[EllderIlliniFan]

All of the discussion about Michigan playing a minimum number of games to give them an inside track on the conference championship has not hit on a couple of other issues.
1. They are missing playing tough games. How will that affect them in the tournament? Other teams are battle hardened. They will have missed that. Are they hurting their tournament chances? What is more important - a conference championship or a final four?
2. What if they drop a couple of games? That will drop them in seeding for the tournament. They are gambling that they will be successful in a small number of games. If they slip, dodging games will be seen as a big mistake.

 

[2qtslow]

All of the discussion about Michigan playing a minimum number of games to give them an inside track on the conference championship has not hit on a couple of other issues.
1. They are missing playing tough games. How will that affect them in the tournament? Other teams are battle hardened. They will have missed that. Are they hurting their tournament chances? What is more important - a conference championship or a final four?

This is what mystifies me. If we accept the idea that they are ducking us to improve their chances of winning the B1G regular season crown, don't we also have to accept that they are reducing their chances in the Big Dance? If you plan to go a long way, don't you want a lot of tough games.?

 

[I11ini82]

This is what mystifies me. If we accept the idea that they are ducking us to improve their chances of winning the B1G regular season crown, don't we also have to accept that they are reducing their chances in the Big Dance? If you plan to go a long way, don't you want a lot of tough games.?

They would be missing one or two tough games. Home against IU and @Northwestern are two other games they missed. Both Quad 2 games.

Gonzaga and Baylor were already supposed to play and were canceled. I don't think either team is going to be worse off in the NCAA tournament because of it.

Michigan has played 4 Quad 1 games. If they ONLY play the remaining 6 games currently scheduled for them, 5 of them are Quad 1 right now and if MSU can play a little better and move up some in the NET, it could be that all 6 games are Quad 1. That would give them 10 Quad 1 games and then whatever they get in the Big Ten tournament.

They will have plenty of tough games regardless of them playing us or not.

 

[Point-Illinois]

Michigan is ducking us for sure and there are 3 things about it that have me irked.

1. They have been able to work out more than they are letting on. That article confirms it. Plus, 3-4 days should be more than enough time to shake the rust off, get a days rest in and then go at it. These are 20 something elite physical specimens. Not a 34 year old dude with iffy knees. (Me)

2. They have now caused a more difficult and probably more “injury causing” schedule down the road as the B1G SHOULD be trying to make up all these games. Playing every other day or near it is going to be fatiguing and injuries become more likely with fatigue. And that’s not just for THEM. Illinois now has to find a way to get that game in with our own compressed schedule. Thank goodness Nebraska sacked up and were willing to play tomorrow to alleviate that.

3. That last point leads to this one. Since when has the league (or NCAA really) given a crap about players possibly not being at 100% each game? The B1G and most other conferences literally play a tournament at the end of each regular season where we celebrate a team that plays three, Four or possibly even FIVE games IN A ROW. And we don’t just celebrate that sort of “warrior, dig deep, push through the fatigue” mentality, we incentivize and reward it with an automatic tourney birth. And UM is worried because they’ve had two weeks to rest, work out at a limited pace, and then use 4 days to prepare for a game?

Yup, I’m putting my hand up for this one. Gotta keep my watch out of all the BS because it’s gettin DEEP.