2/5 Games

#126      

Piotyr

P
Piotyr
sacraig said:
In an typical year the AAC is nowhere near as bad as it is this year. But even if the WCC is better than the AAC this year, that doesn't somehow make it good. It's still a lot of uncompelling games and I legitimately think that makes it difficult to fairly evaluate a team like Gonzaga. And I also legitimately find it odd that so many great recruits would choose Gonzaga over similarly high-level programs that play in more big games throughout the season for the sake of exposure.
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Any given year, sure, the WCC fluctuates between the 8th and 10th best conference over the past 10-15 years, with occasional dips (that coincide with Gonzaga getting seeded lower than they think they should). This year, though, the conference is actually pretty decent overall, and with the ACC in particular so down (I included that comparison because they are the worst "Power" conference this year), the gap is lesser than usual between them and the ACC/Pac-12.

But overall, there isn't much difference between watching Gonzaga beat every team in their conference by 30 and, say, Duke doing the same to the ACC this year.
 
#127      

The Galloping Ghost

The Galloping Ghost
Washington, DC
The Galloping Ghost
Piotyr said:
Any given year, sure, the WCC fluctuates between the 8th and 10th best conference over the past 10-15 years, with occasional dips (that coincide with Gonzaga getting seeded lower than they think they should). This year, though, the conference is actually pretty decent overall, and with the ACC in particular so down (I included that comparison because they are the worst "Power" conference this year), the gap is lesser than usual between them and the ACC/Pac-12.

But overall, there isn't much difference between watching Gonzaga beat every team in their conference by 30 and, say, Duke doing the same to the ACC this year.
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Where the disparity between Zaga and Duke comes into focus is the Q4 games. Zaga is gonna play 13 Q4 games this season (they still have 2 left). Duke only played 6. We have played 3 (just for context). Almost half their schedule are cupcakes. They don't even have to break a sweat. It's a heck of a lot easier to win the very few decently tough games you have when you aren't exactly exerting yourself half of the season.
 
#128      

Piotyr

P
Piotyr
The Galloping Ghost said:
Where the disparity between Zaga and Duke comes into focus is the Q4 games. Zaga is gonna play 13 Q4 games this season (they still have 2 left). Duke only played 6. We have played 3 (just for context). Almost half their schedule is cupcakes. They don't even have to break a sweat. It's a heck of a lot easier to win the very few decently tough games you have when you aren't exactly exerting yourself half of the season.
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Amusingly, of the 11 Q4 games they've played so far, 8 were non-conference matchups. Their entire non-conference consisted of either Q1 or Q4 games.

And the reason I said "isn't much difference" is that the only real meaningful games a team plays is Q1-Q2 games, and the Q3-Q4 games tend to get lumped into a combination of "irrelevant wins" and "bad losses". As combined Q3-Q4 goes, Gonzaga has played 12 and will play 15, while Duke has played 11 and will play...15.

Sure, a Q4 team is even cupcakier than a Q3 team (because Portland is just worse than Pitt, even if not by a lot), but both constitute bad losses and uninteresting wins.

This is also something I give Illinois a ton of credit for, having only scheduled 5 cupcake games in non-conference (one of which was cancelled, but a presumed quality game against Mizzou turned into a cupcake game), putting a bunch of potentially tough games on the schedule that weren't necessarily marquee games (and unfortunate losses at Marquette and Cincy kinda derailed the overall results).
 
#129      

Piotyr

P
Piotyr
Side note: UCLA under upset alert, trailing a bad Arizona State by 6 with 8 minutes to play.
 
#130      

The Galloping Ghost

The Galloping Ghost
Washington, DC
The Galloping Ghost
Piotyr said:
Amusingly, of the 11 Q4 games they've played so far, 8 were non-conference matchups. Their entire non-conference consisted of either Q1 or Q4 games.

And the reason I said "isn't much difference" is that the only real meaningful games a team plays is Q1-Q2 games, and the Q3-Q4 games tend to get lumped into a combination of "irrelevant wins" and "bad losses". As combined Q3-Q4 goes, Gonzaga has played 12 and will play 15, while Duke has played 11 and will play...15.

Sure, a Q4 team is even cupcakier than a Q3 team (because Portland is just worse than Pitt, even if not by a lot), but both constitute bad losses and uninteresting wins.

This is also something I give Illinois a ton of credit for, having only scheduled 5 cupcake games in non-conference (one of which was cancelled, but a presumed quality game against Mizzou turned into a cupcake game), putting a bunch of potentially tough games on the schedule that weren't necessarily marquee games (and unfortunate losses at Marquette and Cincy kinda derailed the overall results).
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Here's an example of Zaga's schedule and the lag between decent matchups:

Jan. 20 #33 SFU
Jan. 27 #208 LMU
Jan. 29 #228 Portland
Feb. 3 #178 San Diego
Feb. 5 #39 BYU

So the stretch between two of their toughest conference games they essentially played nothing. They're fully rested and able to beat the pulp out of BYU.

Here's Duke's schedule:

Duke Blue Devils Nitty Gritty at Bracketologists

bracketologists.com bracketologists.com
Find me a stretch that is anywhere close to that. There isn't one. The ACC is bad this year, but Duke still has to at least try consistently.
 
#131      

Piotyr

P
Piotyr
The Galloping Ghost said:
Here's an example of Zaga's schedule and the lag between decent matchups:

Jan. 20 #33 SFU
Jan. 27 #208 LMU
Jan. 29 #228 Portland
Feb. 3 #178 San Diego
Feb. 5 #39 BYU

So the stretch between two of their toughest conference games they essentially played nothing. They're fully rested and able to beat the pulp out of BYU.

Here's Duke's schedule:

Duke Blue Devils Nitty Gritty at Bracketologists

bracketologists.com bracketologists.com
Find me a stretch that is anywhere close to that. There isn't one. The ACC is bad this year, but Duke still has to at least try consistently.
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In conference, there isn't anything quite like that. Out of conference, Duke does schedule several cupcakes between big games (and the only time they didn't, they lost to OSU after beating Gonzaga).

Going forward for Gonzaga there aren't going to be stretches like that (multiple cupcake games between meaningful ones), and they will end the season with 3 straight Q1/Q2 games, so that could make things a little interesting for them as they try to run the table.

I will say that if they don't run the table, they probably aren't getting a 1 seed, and if they do, they still might not get the #1 overall seed (pending whether teams like Auburn/KU/Purdue somehow run the table).

And before someone says "But what if Illinois runs the table?" Sure, they'd probably be in contention for a 1 seed, just like they were last year when they effectively went from a 4 seed to a 1 seed by running the table against a brutal gauntlet of a closing schedule.
 
#132      

Piotyr

P
Piotyr
Meanwhile, in SEC country, Alabama and LSU fall to 4-6 in conferrence. Both teams have very weird profiles, fantastic non-conference results, a couple big wins in conference, each with a terrible loss in conference, and are under .500 in conference with tough closing schedules.
 
#133      

sacraig

sacraig
The desert
sacraig
Piotyr said:
Side note: UCLA under upset alert, trailing a bad Arizona State by 6 with 8 minutes to play.
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I've watched a handful of UCLA games this season and never have they impressed me. They certainly don't look top 10. They look like a collection of very good players playing a pickup game. Like a less bad version of what Michigan has been this year, I suppose.
 
#134      

BashCtIllini

BashCtIllini
BashCtIllini
sacraig said:
I've watched a handful of UCLA games this season and never have they impressed me. They certainly don't look top 10. They look like a collection of very good players playing a pickup game. Like a less bad version of what Michigan has been this year, I suppose.
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They were not great last year. They just had 2 guys go off in on one of the weirder tournaments in a while.
 
#136      

DeeSunmu 11

DeeSunmu 11
DeeSunmu 11
sacraig said:
I've watched a handful of UCLA games this season and never have they impressed me. They certainly don't look top 10. They look like a collection of very good players playing a pickup game. Like a less bad version of what Michigan has been this year, I suppose.
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Ive only watched a few UCLA games and based soley on those games I can't see how they are ranked at all. They are making my eyes bleed and walton is doing the same to my ears.
 
#137      

sacraig

sacraig
The desert
sacraig
Oh wow. And UCLA just absolutely flubbed this inbounds play. Wow. It's like watching a Groce team inbound the ball.

I will give them credit: the Bruins may have the best hair (as a group) in the NCAA.
 
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#139      

sacraig

sacraig
The desert
sacraig
DeeSunmu 11 said:
You including walton in that? Looks like he's auditioning for a new back to the future movie.
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I just saw that. He looks like the Cryptkeeper.

There has been so much bad play throughout these OTs.
 
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#147      

Piotyr

P
Piotyr
ASU with 2 FTs to try to ice it, but guy misses the first. 1 FT to go, up 2, with 6 seconds to play.