USC, UCLA to join the Big Ten in 2024

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#351      
Who said they were joined at the hip?

and Cal would go with Stanford if they ever went, Cal and UCLA wouldn't go together.
There are 2 different things here. 1) State politics which care about the state schools & not Stanford 2) natural rivalries where maybe Cal/Stanford matters. But at this point the Titanic is going down, neither matter at this point.
 
#352      
This all assumes that 1. the GOR holds up in court and 2. some kind of settlement can't be reached. I don't think either is a lock.
fair enough, but people smarter than me on this seem to think the GOR is a significant barrier & the settlement cost will be too high for anything to happen in the near term. The caveat, I've heard is the ACC breaking up; maybe they find or make a way for that to happen. I suspect the most likely trigger would be ND, If ND breaks lose for Football then ACC TV money & stability would be much more shaky.
 
#353      
fair enough, but people smarter than me on this seem to think the GOR is a significant barrier & the settlement cost will be too high for anything to happen in the near term. The caveat, I've heard is the ACC breaking up; maybe they find or make a way for that to happen. I suspect the most likely trigger would be ND, If ND breaks lose for Football then ACC TV money & stability would be much more shaky.
Yeah, if the B1G can poach ND then I think SEC makes a run at Clemson and FSU, B1G can go for UNC and/or Miami, maybe the Big 12 and Pac-12 look to ACC to replenish. Could see a scenario where taking ND (which should really be expansion option #1) leads to the ACC (amd GOR) imploding.

As to the GOR, you're probably right, I just think if we truly are going to 2-3 mega conferences the ACC schools are going to be thinking long term. But perhaps this means ACC will make a play to grab some Pac 12 schools.
 
#354      
fair enough, but people smarter than me on this seem to think the GOR is a significant barrier & the settlement cost will be too high for anything to happen in the near term. The caveat, I've heard is the ACC breaking up; maybe they find or make a way for that to happen. I suspect the most likely trigger would be ND, If ND breaks lose for Football then ACC TV money & stability would be much more shaky.
Just curious. What were the people "smarter than you " saying about USC and UCLA on Wednesday?
 
#355      

mattcoldagelli

The Transfer Portal
A consortium of schools that come and go whenever they can sniff a better deal for themselves.
What are you talking about? Who is doing the "going" in your comparison?

The entire point here is stability. Not for the NCAA, but for these schools, which is absolutely the basis on which they should be making those decisions.
 
#356      
Just curious. What were the people "smarter than you " saying about USC and UCLA on Wednesday?
There were rumors about USC wanting to join the Big Ten last fall. I heard it on Saturday Morning Sports Talk or whatever that podcast is called with Loren Tate and Steve Kelly.
 
#357      
This is exciting news but also leaves me a little anxious to see what the future holds. 2 things I am most worried about...

1) These super conferences will try to strong arm the fan base into an expensive subscription service to watch games. Something like needing to pay for ESPN+ or Apple TV+ then also buying an additional "B1G package" or "SEC package".

2) They will be lazy on the scheduling and divisions/pods will be extremely unbalanced. I don't want to watch an unranked team finish first in one division while 4 top 15 teams fight for first in another.
 
#358      

sacraig

The desert
Agreed. The NCAA as an organization left its’ head stuck in the sand for too long. But we have to remember what the NCAA is and always has been . . . a member-run organization.

Long term I can’t see any scenario in which college athletics remain affiliated with universities with amount of money that is now flowing around in full view. How long until the state legislatures or university presidents say “Stop! This has nothing to do with our academic mission” and cut athletics? The sports will wither and die without that affiliation . . .
It absolutely intersects with the academic mission, though, if indirectly. Major success in college athletics has an effect on the number of applications to a school. Assuming the school doesn't get larger and that the applications are randomly distributed in quality, the result is a more selective admissions and higher average quality of student being admitted. Those both affect academic rankings and improve academic programs.

So even though athletics and academics draw from different pools of money, they are not completely divorced from one another. Athletics are an excellent marketing tool for the academic side.
 
#360      
The question now seems to be who can add $80-100 million a year? There's not that many schools that can justify that kind of valuation to the BIG (or the SEC for that matter). WASH and maybe 1 of UO/UCAL/COL might command that kind of $$ w/ their brands and TV markets. They would certainly help stabilize the West like MD/RUT did for PSU. Beyond those it's definitely ND. I'm guessing STAN only gets in as a partner for ND (which would bring it to an even 20). My guess is that 2 more PAC schools get added and then ND has a business decision to make. ... Maybe Warren likes to hold a spot open on the roster like BU. :)
 
#361      

Mr. Tibbs

southeast DuPage
The question now seems to be who can add $80-100 million a year? There's not that many schools that can justify that kind of valuation to the BIG (or the SEC for that matter). WASH and maybe 1 of UO/UCAL/COL might command that kind of $$ w/ their brands and TV markets. They would certainly help stabilize the West like MD/RUT did for PSU. Beyond those it's definitely ND. I'm guessing STAN only gets in as a partner for ND (which would bring it to an even 20). My guess is that 2 more PAC schools get added and then ND has a business decision to make. ... Maybe Warren likes to hold a spot open on the roster like BU. :)
with whatever respect is due to Kevin Warren , he’s just the one at the podium at the press conference about this . the real decisions are being made by TV people who then are explaining it to him and the Univ Presidents
 
#362      

sacraig

The desert
with whatever respect is due to Kevin Warren , he’s just the one at the podium at the press conference about this . the real decisions are being made by TV people who then are explaining it to him and the Univ Presidents
I doubt this narrative very much. University presidents, informed by their ADs, are perfectly capable of common sense. I'm sure they consulted the TV folks to get some idea of the new valuation but the TV folks aren't driving the bus.
 
#363      

SuperMetroid

Evanston
Dan Wolken sums it up . . .

“It was always going to be the proxy war between ESPN and FOX and the soulless college presidents and administrators who have been sucking on their teat for the last decade, unable to do anything remotely visionary with their sport besides convince television executives to shovel more money at them every decade.

And now here we are, at the precipice of a realignment that will not merely be about rearranging pieces on the chess board. This, finally, is the Big One: The ultimate abandonment of tradition, of rivalry, of geographic sanity and of the unique character that distinguished one conference from another.

In the end, we’ll still have the Big Ten and the SEC standing atop college sports, but they will no longer be college athletic conferences in the same way we’ve known them for a century. Now, with USC and UCLA abandoning their West Coast roots for the riches of a league that was founded in 1896 by a group of college presidents in the Midwest trying to establish some control over college athletics, they are headed for a future as generic, soulless corporate entities that exist purely for profit and excess. The future of the SEC vs. Big Ten will look no different than Coke vs. Pepsi, FedEx vs. UPS and Apple vs. IBM.

And college sports is never going to be the same.”

Agreed, all of this blows. Rutgers vs. USC is not a game I would ever care about...and now it's a Big Ten game that might affect Illinois in the standings? Whatever.
 
#366      

Noblesville Illini

Nappanee, IN
Hey fellow Puget Sounder. I’m an Illini married to a Husky. She’s freaking out right now too. Alma mater for her could wind up in the Mountain West if they aren’t careful. Jen Cohen is about the last person you want as your AD. You know who I feel great having as AD though? Whitman. Illinois is ascending in revenue sports at the perfect time to keep becoming a nationally relevant school.

ND has always felt it is too good for the B1G. Perhaps with its old rival USC on board now it can come off its high horse a little.
I live near South Bend. UND will NEVER get off their high horse! Period.
 
#367      

wettsten

Chicago
Yahoo reporting that Washington and Oregon have applied for membership. That'll be a formality. Pressure's on ND. Hold your nose and join (with Stanford) or take a huge risk at being frozen out,
apparently yesterday was the last day to notify the PAC-12 of withdrawing without incurring a penalty. anyone know what that penalty would be for UW and UO?
 
#369      
The question now seems to be who can add $80-100 million a year? There's not that many schools that can justify that kind of valuation to the BIG (or the SEC for that matter). WASH and maybe 1 of UO/UCAL/COL might command that kind of $$ w/ their brands and TV markets. They would certainly help stabilize the West like MD/RUT did for PSU. Beyond those it's definitely ND. I'm guessing STAN only gets in as a partner for ND (which would bring it to an even 20). My guess is that 2 more PAC schools get added and then ND has a business decision to make. ... Maybe Warren likes to hold a spot open on the roster like BU. :)
I think there's a bigger game afoot.

The B1G and SEC (and by proxy ESPN and FOX) are in competition here to own as much of college football as possible. Sure there are schools that won't bring in $80 million in TV revenue. But FOX (and ESPN) probably cares even more about having a bigger piece of the the playoffs than they do about that regular season revenue. Thinking long game, if the B1G, with an exclusive media deal with FOX, eventually expands to 30 big programs (though maybe not all are $80 million big), and the SEC sits at 20, when it comes time to negotiate terms of the playoffs, who's going to have more leverage? And what if it's the other way around?
 
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#370      

sacraig

The desert
The question now seems to be who can add $80-100 million a year? There's not that many schools that can justify that kind of valuation to the BIG (or the SEC for that matter). WASH and maybe 1 of UO/UCAL/COL might command that kind of $$ w/ their brands and TV markets. They would certainly help stabilize the West like MD/RUT did for PSU. Beyond those it's definitely ND. I'm guessing STAN only gets in as a partner for ND (which would bring it to an even 20). My guess is that 2 more PAC schools get added and then ND has a business decision to make. ... Maybe Warren likes to hold a spot open on the roster like BU. :)
I don't think it's just about who can add that directly. That's great and all, but when we add a school, we aren't just adding what they can command alone. We are increasing our brand vue while also devaluing other brands. So maybe that's what, say, Oregon commands as part of the Pac-12 but would they command more as part of a more valuable conference? And how does their value fall by remaining in a weakened Pac-12.

There's also value to rivalry games. I'm not usually very likely to watch an Ohio State or Michigan game that doesn't involve Illinois, but I'm a lot more likely to do it if they're playing each other. In that sense, adding lower value schools can still be valuable for streaming numbers. You also have to consider that when breaking up rivalries.
 
#371      
I think there's a bigger game afoot.

The B1G and SEC (and by proxy ESPN and FOX) are in competition here to own as much of college football as possible. Sure there are schools that won't bring in $80 million in TV revenue. But FOX (and ESPN) probably cares even more about having a bigger piece of the the playoffs than they do about that regilar season revenue. Thinking long game, if the B1G, with an exclusive media deal with FOX, eventually expands to 30 big programs (though maybe not all are $80 million big), and the SEC sits at 20, when it comes time to negotiate terms of the playoffs, who's going to have more leverage? And what if it's the other way around?
I think this is what some people aren’t getting. This isn’t a conference realignment like we’ve seen historically. It’s a partnership between the major top tier athletic programs and content providers to monopolize as much of the high-end revenue stream as possible. Its the division of college sports into a major league and various minor leagues. You’re either going to be in or out. Nobody, not even notre Dame, will see any benefit in being out.
 
#372      

Mr. Tibbs

southeast DuPage
I doubt this narrative very much. University presidents, informed by their ADs, are perfectly capable of common sense. I'm sure they consulted the TV folks to get some idea of the new valuation but the TV folks aren't driving the bus.
I think you would be surprised how involved they are and how much they influence this

TV ( read : money ) drives the bus . who better than FOX (or ESPN) people to know this

it’s well documented that ESPN was the impetus in getting UT and OU to jump to SEC
 
#373      

Noblesville Illini

Nappanee, IN
I think those days are over... UDub would come by themselves in a heartbeat...
Scared Asustad GIF by Almost Christmas Movie

Washington alums and faculty right now!!!!
 
#374      

Joel Goodson

respect my decision™
I think this is what some people aren’t getting. This isn’t a conference realignment like we’ve seen historically. It’s a partnership between the major top tier athletic programs and content providers to monopolize as much of the high-end revenue stream as possible. Its the division of college sports into a major league and various minor leagues. You’re either going to be in or out. Nobody, not even notre Dame, will see any benefit in being out.

Hoops: best believe the big boys are going to make a seismic move on the NCAA. They want a much bigger share of the tournament revenues and, FWIW, I don't blame them.
 
#375      

JJE

Bethalto, IL
If your the ACC you have to be sweating. The SEC is probably coming for Miami, FSU, and Clemson. If that happens then that puts them in the same situation as the Pac 12 where schools scramble to join the BIG or SEC.
That said if I'm the BIG I go for:
1. ND 🤢
2. Stanford
3. Oregon
4. Virginia or UNC.

In my opinion once the SEC raids the ACC it's the final domino and then everyone is going to want those final spots in the SEC and BIG.
 
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