Pregame: Illinois vs Minnesota, Saturday, October 15th, 11:00am CT, BTN
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Lollol
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Fighter of the Nightman
- Chicago, IL
While this is all fair and whatnot, I think there ARE a few counterpoints to be made:
1) We are 5-1, ranked, coming off truly historic wins for this program, sitting in the driver's seat for our division and about to have our Homecoming game. While it's probably a bit much to expect fans in the Chicago suburbs or even Peoria or Springfield to start impromptu planning their fall Saturdays around Illini football at 11:00 am, I (and many others) am indeed disappointed that we can't draw over 50k from diehards, students and locals alone. I DO think we have "won consistently" enough to rightfully expect THOSE fans to hop back on the bandwagon, if not the more casual fans. Which brings me to my second point..
2) I think we talk about our geography as less populated than it is. I know they have both been better than us lately (especially Iowa), but just compare to Iowa and Purdue:
Iowa
City: 74,828 (97,146 with Coralville)
MSA: 177,239
Adj. Counties: 494,593
Relevant MSAs Within 1.5 Hrs.:
- Quad Cities, IA-IL: 381,568
- Waterloo: 167,796
Total "Close" Population: 1.04 million
Undergrads: 21,973 (30,015 total)
Relevant Att.: 69,250 sellout for every game, while fans are quite upset ... plays to the argument of season ticketholder importance, I suppose!
Purdue
City: 44,595 (115,378 with Lafayette)
MSA: 224,709
Adj. Counties: 336,915
Relevant MSAs Within 1.5 Hrs.:
- Indianapolis, IN: 2.13 million
Total "Close" Population: 2.46 million
Undergrads: 37,101 (46,639 total)
Relevant Att.: 57,307 vs. Penn State on a Thursday; 55,137 vs. Florida Atlantic
Now, us:
ILLINOIS
City: 88,302 (126,638 with Urbana)
MSA: 222,696
Adj. Counties: 499,913
Relevant MSAs Within 1.5 Hrs.:
- Peoria: 398,224
- Springfield: 206,898
- Kankakee: 106,601
- Decatur: 102,432
Total "Close" Population: 1.31 million
Undergrads: 34,559 (56,257 total)
Relevant Att.: 44,910 vs. Iowa
In summary, a losing history can only explain so much; it might explain why we can't get a sellout, but I reject that it's a suitable explanation for consistently pulling under 40k and struggling to ever get above 45k. I think there is a deeper "structural" problem - that our leadership is doing a decent job at trying to fix, IMO - that we are failing to engage non-alumni fans in Central Illinois in ways our rivals are not. There is more than enough local population and undergraduate students to fill a 70k-seat stadium in theory, and there is WAY more than enough to get at least 50k in there for Homecoming to watch a 5-1, nationally ranked team.
It is what it is, and we just have to keep giving the fans a reason to (eventually) show up, but I think Bret and the team have every right to be a little annoyed. Thankfully, I doubt that is near the top of their minds today, and I think they are preparing to beat Minnesota!!
The REAL test of Illini fandom, and if it still exists in any meaningful numbers at all, would be how many fans we can bring to an extremely close Big Ten Championship Game in Indianapolis should we be fortunate enough to make it ... a bad showing in that hypothetical situation, even against OSU, should make us all feel shameful.
madillini4
Ozamataz Buckshank
- Millywaukee
Agree with everything you said, and not sure if your comment is directed towards me or not, but I’m not complaining about attendance.
I’m trying to highlight the fact that the attendance issues are due to mismanagement of the tickets from the end of last season onward, and NOT due to lack of fan support. In previous posts I’ve linked articles showing how impressive our attendance was to our record even when we had a 2-10 season.
OUR FAN SUPPORT HAS BEEN INCREDIBLE AND ISN‘T GETTING THE CREDIT IT DESERVES because it is over shadowed by ticket mismanagement.
In 2012, and 2017 we went 2-10 both seasons and still had higher attendance than we do this year!
2012 = 45,564
2017 = 39,429
2022 = 38,498
The fans are not the problem.
Yeah I probably may have said what was on my mind too much their. I’ll be quiet about it now.
madillini4
Ozamataz Buckshank
- Millywaukee
2 biggest reasons...
1) With Sitkowski we are basically Iowa. Great defense, non existent offense.
2) Analytics love Minnesota. A LOT. Great defense, solid offense. They are ranked in/around the top 10 in most rankings I've seen.
ChiefGritty
- Chicago, IL
The more I look into this the more firmly this seems to be the conclusion.
I bet we use IW more and do some trick plays.
Indeed, I think BB has mostly pulled all the right levers since he became HC. His one glaring mistake is probably Tony Peterson, but making a change showed his ability to be flexible and adapt to the circumstances. I believe in BB and his staff.
Not to sound like a broken record or complaining but they just have to continue winning games. People will start noticing especially the naysayers and the attendance will increase. People forget that this program was in really bad shape before Whitman took over the athletic department so it takes time to build things up. This stuff just doesn’t happen overnight.
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I'm of the mind that Peterson was a placeholder for a year. I wouldn't be surprised to find out that he originally asked Lunney to come on as OC but Lunney wanted another year at UTSA. OTOH, Peterson may have been the best he could get considering the state of our offense at the time. So, I don't really consider it a mistake per se.
I'll make one comment for this week and that is it: season tickets are key. Season tickets were still somewhat high in 2012 because we had made a bowl the year before, had a new coach, and there were a good amount of returning starters. I would like to see actual numbers in the stands, because by the end of the season it would have been pretty pathetic.Agree with everything you said, and not sure if your comment is directed towards me or not, but I’m not complaining about attendance.
I’m trying to highlight the fact that the attendance issues are due to mismanagement of the tickets from the end of last season onward, and NOT due to lack of fan support. In previous posts I’ve linked articles showing how impressive our attendance was to our record even when we had a 2-10 season.
OUR FAN SUPPORT HAS BEEN INCREDIBLE AND ISN‘T GETTING THE CREDIT IT DESERVES because it is over shadowed by ticket mismanagement.
In 2012, and 2017 we went 2-10 both seasons and still had higher attendance than we do this year!
2012 = 45,564
2017 = 39,429
2022 = 38,498
The fans are not the problem.
I think tomorrow will have about 45k again. More people will want to come into the game instead of just tailgating. My wife and I will be 2 of those people!
I just hope Art doesn't get IW killed with his late timed passes like he did against Iowa.
Last I checked, Tommy DeVito hasn't played one single snap on the defense this year that has given up all of zero touchdowns at home and will be playing a Minnesota offense that only managed to drop 10 points at home against a hardly elite Purdue defense.
I rarely bet sports, and I never bet games that I care about, but even with Art starting this seems like an easy choice: Illini to cover.
I rarely bet sports, and I never bet games that I care about, but even with Art starting this seems like an easy choice: Illini to cover.
100%. Ok i've never bet on a game in my entire life, but am willing to bet on this one. How do I go about doing that? This would be a one time thing for me where i double my money and never play again.
Beyond Illinois D being solid, I have no feel at all for what happens if Art plays. Said last week, but I would much rather them run an exclusively wildcat offense with IW back there than rely on Art for anything.
I could see Illinois just being insanely run heavy (less than 10 passes heavy) playing ball control, ToP, and Illinois wins in the 24-10 space.
I could see Art throwing 2 pick 6s and we lose 17-3.
All I know is that if I was Minny DC I would be doing anything and everything to make sure Art Sitkowski is forced to beat us. I'm not sure Minny has the D for that, but I would be doing 8/9 man boxes, run blitzes all day long and taking the risk that Art won't beat us over the top.
I could see Illinois just being insanely run heavy (less than 10 passes heavy) playing ball control, ToP, and Illinois wins in the 24-10 space.
I could see Art throwing 2 pick 6s and we lose 17-3.
All I know is that if I was Minny DC I would be doing anything and everything to make sure Art Sitkowski is forced to beat us. I'm not sure Minny has the D for that, but I would be doing 8/9 man boxes, run blitzes all day long and taking the risk that Art won't beat us over the top.
On the subject of IW, will there be a different punt returner tomorrow? His decision making was ……. puzzling at best.
Joel Goodson
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