Illini Basketball 2022-2023

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#353      
Think Mayer is almost a shoo in to start. Excellent defender, handles, passer, very athletic.
I mean I think it’s between him, Hawkins, Dainja, and rodgers for the 4/5 starting spots.

I think Mayer and Hawkins have a good enough lead on the other two based on experience (and skill) to confidently say they have those spots locked preseason.
 
#356      
This is a narrative I’ve seen in here before, and I don’t buy it. I don’t have stats either way, but I’m fairly certain that number of fouls called in tourney has actually gone down over last few years. Not sure how that compares to foul calls in BIG. I also don’t recall Illini tourney games being called much tighter than regular season games over last two years. Heck if that were true, shouldn’t Kofi have had 30 free throw attempts?
weren't we just crying that not enough calls we made against Houston in the tournament last year?
 
#357      

Illini92and96

Austin, TX
No. The tournament is king. The conference including Illinois has underperformed.

I'd absolutely trade a win in the tournament for one in the challenge.
I’m not questioning whether the Big has underperformed. I agree. Moreover, anyone would prefer a tourney to challenge win. You’re saying tourney success is a better indicator of conference vs. conference compared to head to head matchups of the two conferences?
 
#358      
No. The tournament is king. The conference including Illinois has underperformed.

I'd absolutely trade a win in the tournament for one in the challenge.
I used to have the same mindset, but in the era of advanced analytics, you get direct insight into how lucky or unlucky your draw is. The last two years we have gotten absolutely hosed by drawing top ten Kenpom opponents in the second round (Houston was top 5). A single elimination tournament is a crapshoot after the first round. Let’s put it this way: in a hypothetical, single elimination NBA finals format, the Bulls never win their first title despite ripping off four straight after that initial home loss.

Of course, the optics and perception are different, and we all crave that deep tournament run. It will happen. The Nova/Kansas model is instructive here: dance every year, obtain high seed, and eventually (even with some inexplicable exits along the way), good stuff happens.
 
#359      
I got a bold one for you...
Goode is going to be consistently in the starting lineup come February and lead the team in 3PT% with over 40%.
Other than my thoughts/predictions I posted earlier in this thread, my only other prediction I have — and not sure how bold it actually is given the make up of the team — is that Lieb will have more games where he plays meaningful minutes/makes real impact than Harris.

I like Harris and think he will be a solid contributor down the line, but just don’t see it this year. He may have “better” stats this season than Lieb, but I think Lieb might see a little time in some games due to matchups or foul trouble (hopefully not because of injury).
 
#361      
Other than my thoughts/predictions I posted earlier in this thread, my only other prediction I have — and not sure how bold it actually is given the make up of the team — is that Lieb will have more games where he plays meaningful minutes/makes real impact than Harris.

I like Harris and think he will be a solid contributor down the line, but just don’t see it this year. He may have “better” stats this season than Lieb, but I think Lieb might see a little time in some games due to matchups or foul trouble (hopefully not because of injury).
You are starting to make a belieber out of me; but I still dunno 🤷‍♂️?
 
#362      
Other than my thoughts/predictions I posted earlier in this thread, my only other prediction I have — and not sure how bold it actually is given the make up of the team — is that Lieb will have more games where he plays meaningful minutes/makes real impact than Harris.

I like Harris and think he will be a solid contributor down the line, but just don’t see it this year. He may have “better” stats this season than Lieb, but I think Lieb might see a little time in some games due to matchups or foul trouble (hopefully not because of injury).
I agree that Lieb is important when you look at teams like Purdue, Michigan, Indiana, Maryland, Northwestern etc. that have size at the 5 that can dominate if switched against Goode or Rodgers at the 4. I hope Lieb can step up and get minutes to avert that.
 
#365      
I agree that Lieb is important when you look at teams like Purdue, Michigan, Indiana, Maryland, Northwestern etc. that have size at the 5 that can dominate if switched against Goode or Rodgers at the 4. I hope Lieb can step up and get minutes to avert that.
To add onto that, Lieb is our emergency 5 and Harris is our emergency wing, and the fact is we have way more depth on the wing such that we are less likely to tap into our emergency wing in any given game.

BBV actually would have been a great depth piece on this team. You can tell Lieb has worked really hard on his body and I’m sure is significantly stronger than when he came in as a frosh, but his frame just isn’t going to let him add too much more weight. I am hoping that in 2 years banging against Kofi everyday Lieb learned some tricks to guard physical players down low. I know we lost the game but that BBV performance against Purdue was maybe my favorite individual performance in a game last year. Just awesome stuff.
 
#367      
Can someone alleviate my concern about rebounding? I have heard that Rodgers is leading the team in rebounding in practice. I don't see him getting major minutes during the season, so who rebounds for us? Meyer averaged 5 rebs. last year, Hawk at 4.3 and Shannon only 2.6. Taken together, that barely covers Kofi's output. Last year we averaged 38.5 to our opponent's 33.
 
#368      
Can someone alleviate my concern about rebounding? I have heard that Rodgers is leading the team in rebounding in practice. I don't see him getting major minutes during the season, so who rebounds for us? Meyer averaged 5 rebs. last year, Hawk at 4.3 and Shannon only 2.6. Taken together, that barely covers Kofi's output. Last year we averaged 38.5 to our opponent's 33.
Hopefully I can alleviate some of your concern by saying that Rodgers, by all accounts, will be playing major minutes. So that should help with boards.

Also, no idea if the numbers bear this out, but I think BU teams are generally just good rebounding teams top to bottom. We don't have a Kofi this year, but we have a team of everyday guys who are going to find a body and attack the glass.
 
#369      
Can someone alleviate my concern about rebounding? I have heard that Rodgers is leading the team in rebounding in practice. I don't see him getting major minutes during the season, so who rebounds for us? Meyer averaged 5 rebs. last year, Hawk at 4.3 and Shannon only 2.6. Taken together, that barely covers Kofi's output. Last year we averaged 38.5 to our opponent's 33.
For Mayer and TSJ, you have to consider what they were asked to do last year for their teams. Were they expected to rebound? They certainly will be this year, so I think you’ll see their numbers go up. TSJ averaged 4 rpg his previous two seasons. He had a 7 game run his soph season against good competition when he averaged close to 7 rpg. Mayer will be asked to rebound more too than he has previously. He had 12 against Kansas last year, so he’s a capable rebounder.

RJ averaged just 1.7 rpg, but that was in limited minutes. I expect that to be more like 5+ rpg this year with more minutes. His season high last year was 6 in 17 minutes against NW. CoHawk’s rpg will go up with more tick and not having Kofi there. I think Ty will play more than you think. Not saying rebounding will be a strength necessarily, but not sure it will be as bad a weakness as you think.
 
#370      

blackdog

Champaign
Hopefully I can alleviate some of your concern by saying that Rodgers, by all accounts, will be playing major minutes. So that should help with boards.

Also, no idea if the numbers bear this out, but I think BU teams are generally just good rebounding teams top to bottom. We don't have a Kofi this year, but we have a team of everyday guys who are going to find a body and attack the glass.
I think philosophically BU would prefer to have a bunch of guys attacking the glass, like when Ayo and Feliz were here, rather than just relying on one big guy to do all of it. Seems like they will be closer to his dream than last year. We don't know yet how aggressive Skyy and Epps are as rebounders but we know the rest of the guys can go get them.
 
#372      
Can someone alleviate my concern about rebounding? I have heard that Rodgers is leading the team in rebounding in practice. I don't see him getting major minutes during the season, so who rebounds for us? Meyer averaged 5 rebs. last year, Hawk at 4.3 and Shannon only 2.6. Taken together, that barely covers Kofi's output. Last year we averaged 38.5 to our opponent's 33.
I think rebounds per 40 minutes is a better stat because it normalizes to minutes played. Here are the numbers from last year. Include Kofi for reference.
Kofi 14
Coleman 9
RJ 8
Luke 8
TSJ 4
MM 9
 
#375      
I mean I think it’s between him, Hawkins, Dainja, and rodgers for the 4/5 starting spots.

I think Mayer and Hawkins have a good enough lead on the other two based on experience (and skill) to confidently say they have those spots locked preseason.

Mayer has had some back problems and was also out recently (not sure of reason) with ailment. Believe Luke will be the starter in that situation. My guess is Ty is backup for 2/3 but we may see a variety of lineups depending on individual game and opposition. Doesn’t need to be a 4 to rebound.
 
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