3/19 Games

[Illini in Italy]

To add a little context to this tweet, most of the teams were low seeds so the probability of making a S16 was small for most teams. According to this simulation, https://barttorvik.com/tourneytime.php?conlimit=All&src=pre&year=2023, the expected number of B10 teams to reach the S16 was 1.8, and 1 made it, so yes it was an underperformance but the variance of these things are pretty high, if only 1 more team would have made it the B10 would have actually overperformed it's expectations in regards to the S16. And with regards to the number of teams getting in, the B10 was actually second best in Non-Conference games behind the B12, so the argument that they get in by beating each other doesn't really work. https://barttorvik.com/trank.php?so...es=1&venue=All&type=N&mingames=0&quad=5&rpi=#
Reality is that Purdue massively choked while the rest of the teams more or less performed to expectations with Michigan State overachieving.

FACTS . . . not allowed here on Loyalty, are they?

 

[GoodePodzMelendez]

Klesmit 6’3” 190#, Mulcahy 6’6” 213#, Loyer 6’ 5” 185#, Pickett 6’4” 202#, Hoggard 6’4” 210#, etc.
Don’t think it the size of the dog.

It’s more speed as we saw with Roberts and Nowell. They just flat out get to the rim and score. I think Harris and Epps could get there with time. Both have a quick first step. Both still need to improve their outside shot to make their drive to the basket more effective

 

[Illini in Italy]

This year tournament shows NIL$ and Coaches salaries have not much impact on the outcomes.
For 2023 sweet 16 teams coaches salaries and potentially NIL$ less than 50% to that of teams exited in rounds #1 & #2.
Illinois pays top 5 salary for BU in the country and after 6 years, can't make it to 2nd week.

I'm not gonna run the numbers, but I'm betting the correlation between winning/losing in the first/second round of the tourney is gonna yield an r^2 value of around 0.

 

[gibb52]

I would like to hear some reasons why. The only thing people can come up with is the nostalgia of the tournament. It truly does not prove a CHAMPION.

Wild card teams have won WS multiple times. No matter the format the team that plays the best when it counts moves on. The tourney is a delicious mix of drama because of the way it is run, not in spite of it. Your pro style playoff system is a really bad take IMO.

 

[john1952]

We were a very different team between the start of the year and the end of the year. Unfortunately we were much worse at the end of the year lol.

We hit 10 and12 3's against UCLA and Texas and never did that again. In that sense we were quite a bit worse.

 

[Illiniguy13]

Bingo.

The big ten is full of strong but slow (relative to the other P5 conferences) players. The style of play and way the games are reffed requires strength because you have to be able to play through everything that is a foul but isn’t called.

When you hit the tournament, you can’t brute strength people because it’s reffed like a real basketball game. The lengthy,
athletic teams can guard big ten teams 1 on 1, which is the best defensive system there is regardless of principles.

Another thing that stood out to me watching big ten teams in the tourney this year was how many times they had a numbers advantage around the rim for a rebound, but got out athleted for the rebound at the high point. Look at Alabama, look at Arkansas, look at Miami etc. Look at how many guys they have who look/move like RJ and Sencire (ignore their skill level), and look at how much RJ and Sencire’s length/athleticism/quickness stands out on our team and in conference play.

I also talked about Mayer in a post not long ago. How often did he stand out athletically in the big 12 (spoiler: never), but he did stand out for us athletically at times in conference. But then, how many times did he stand out athletically vs Arkansas? Spoiler, never. We were arguably the most athletic team in the big ten this year. We hit an average SEC team and couldn’t match up.

Where are these lengthy, athletic kids? Same places they are in football. Big ten needs to figure out a way to get into Texas, Florida, Georgia for recruiting. Find a way to watch the the 4A/5A/6A Texas state championships, and just look at the length and athleticism on the court. Some of these HS teams look like select AAU teams from a length/athleticism perspective.

I agree we need to field teams of legit athletes. We can't revert back to the days of "not having enough horses" to compete. At the same time we don't necessarily need lottery type talent to accomplish what we want (advance past the 2nd weekend). We need POISED players who take smart shots and not cough up turnovers.

 

[Illini in Italy]

I would like to hear some reasons why. The only thing people can come up with is the nostalgia of the tournament. It truly does not prove a CHAMPION.

Your method would eliminate the storylines behind a #8 seeded Villanova in 1985, or a 2014 #7 UCONN, or a #6 Kansas winning a National title in 1988. The beauty of the current format is "Yes Virginia, there is a Santa Claus", and every single team in the nation has a chance to take a grab at the golden ring. Even those of us deluded Loyalty fans saw a path this year to a natty (those were some THICK orange glasses!)

A playoff system such as you propose is already used by the NBA, and it is BORING. Outside of the fans of teams involved, no one tunes into game 2 of the Eastern Conference finals. Tens of millions tune into opening weened of March Madness (one reason the NCAA takes in over $1,000,000,000 for this two weeks alone.

I'll take a hard pass, but thank you for asking.

 

[Homecoming 2019]

B1G is a Purdue collapse away from doing exactly as expected. 2 teams in the S16 with the seeding the conference received was the expected outcome. Of course Purdue got trounced by a play in 16 seed who got in on a technicality, and now the entire B1G is a joke.

 

[jumpingjack]

Your method would eliminate the storylines behind a #8 seeded Villanova in 1985, or a 2014 #7 UCONN, or a #6 Kansas winning a National title in 1988. The beauty of the current format is "Yes Virginia, there is a Santa Claus", and every single team in the nation has a chance to take a grab at the golden ring. Even those of us deluded Loyalty fans saw a path this year to a natty (those were some THICK orange glasses!)

A playoff system such as you propose is already used by the NBA, and it is BORING. Outside of the fans of teams involved, no one tunes into game 2 of the Eastern Conference finals. Tens of millions tune into opening weened of March Madness (one reason the NCAA takes in over $1,000,000,000 for this two weeks alone.

I'll take a hard pass, but thank you for asking.

Agreed. The chaos is the point.
Best event in sports, by far.

 

[Homecoming 2019]

I can't pinpoint a one glaring difference but when I watch teams like Miami, some of these SEC and Big 12 teams you can see the difference between those teams and our teams. I don't what it is exactly: speed, size, athleticism, having good ball handlers, shooting. Maybe it's a little bit of all it.

Maybe Miami needs to not lose to Maryland by 20. The B1G always performs well in non-conference play.

 

[Thaillini22]

I would like to hear some reasons why. The only thing people can come up with is the nostalgia of the tournament. It truly does not prove a CHAMPION.

Upsets happen in series, too.

 

[ChiefGritty]

I would like to hear some reasons why. The only thing people can come up with is the nostalgia of the tournament. It truly does not prove a CHAMPION.

This is, we have to understand and admit, 100% correct. A 64 team single elimination tournament is a frankly ludicrous way to go about identifying the best college basketball team in the country.

[Stephen A Smith voice] HOWEVER,

The NCAA Tournament is a massively more popular (and thereby massively more valuable) product than the sport of college basketball itself. I made the analogy to horse racing the other day, a sport basically no one cares about at all, but the Kentucky Derby remains a legacy staple of the American sports calendar. College basketball is more popular than horse racing, but March Madness has some of that. The unpredictability and random small schools having 15 minutes of fame based on a fluky bounce of the ball is inextricable from that. It's a totally unique TV (and gambling) product that has embedded over decades into American culture.

Is the tournament logical? Absolutely not, but life's beautiful and perfect things have a tendency not to be (see: the former Rose Bowl).

You would never design a competition from scratch like March Madness, you would do something more competitively sensible like @Dbell1981 is proposing. But college basketball over time randomly stumbled into magic, and they'd be killing the golden goose to try to change that.

The 68 team format with the play in games was bad enough, for the love of god don't make it any worse.

 

[21ChampaignSt]

I would like to hear some reasons why. The only thing people can come up with is the nostalgia of the tournament. It truly does not prove a CHAMPION.

Not sure why you think the best team never wins. 24 of the 37 champions since 1985 have been #1 seeds. So going into the tournament they were thought to be the best and then they went into the tournament and won 6 straight games to prove it. Doesn't sound very flukey to me.

 

[RockfordIllini]

I’m not so sure the BIG’s tourney performance this year is an indictment of the league. We had 2 top 4 seeds and then 6 spread through the 7-10 range. So expectation should have been to get 1-2 teams to sweet 16, which happened. And NW and PSU gave a pair of 2 seeds all they wanted in the round of 32. Even with Purdues embarrassment, I’m guessing the League was within a game or 2 of their expected win total, especially if MSU makes it to E8 or farther.

Now 2021 when BIG had a bunch of high seeds get knocked out early was a travesty. But that was also the Covid bubble year and all BIG teams had spent an extra week in isolation compared to the field so not sure you can draw any trends from that.

It was a down year for sure with no real great teams, but was worthy of a bunch of teams getting in at the 7-10 range which is what we got and more or less played to. Will see what the league looks like next year. If OSU keeps everyone they could make a jump. If Edey comes back I expect Purdue will be much better with soph guards and TKR looks fantastic. If we land the right pieces in the portal we could make a leap.

 

[21ChampaignSt]

I also think a lot of the B1G championship drought can be attributed to having no blue blood in the conference. 9 out of the 21 champions since the B1G last won it have been blue bloods. Which isn't insignificant. That doesn't excuse the B1G for not being able to produce a UConn, Nova, Florida, or Baylor. But 43% of the champions since 2000 have come from programs who have historically operated on a different level than the rest of cbb. I don't think the SEC, ACC, B12 can really take credit for that.

 

[JFGsCoffeeMug]

I also think a lot of the B1G championship drought can be attributed to having no blue blood in the conference. 9 out of the 21 champions since the B1G last won it have been blue bloods. Which isn't insignificant. That doesn't excuse the B1G for not being able to produce a UConn, Nova, Florida, or Baylor. But 43% of the champions since 2000 have come from programs who have historically operated on a different level than the rest of cbb. I don't think the SEC, ACC, B12 can really take credit for that.

Are you forgetting Indiana?

 

[eas23]

And then there is Few: 8th straight Sweet 16. Wow!

Yeah but if they played in the Big 10, they might go like 13-7 or something.

 

[21ChampaignSt]

Are you forgetting Indiana?

Lol yes. On purpose.

 

[urbanite]

We hit 10 and12 3's against UCLA and Texas and never did that again. In that sense we were quite a bit worse.

We made 10 threes in two games after Texas; vs. Wisconsin on 1/7, and vs. Minnesota on 2/20. The Wisconsin game was our best 3P performance of the season at 10 of 19.

 

[Ill in Cols]

I would like to hear some reasons why. The only thing people can come up with is the nostalgia of the tournament. It truly does not prove a CHAMPION.

If you are pretty much only interested in a worthy champion, just scale back invites to the top 8 teams.

 

[danbor]

I’m not so sure the BIG’s tourney performance this year is an indictment of the league. We had 2 top 4 seeds and then 6 spread through the 7-10 range. So expectation should have been to get 1-2 teams to sweet 16, which happened.

Glad you posted that. I was just thinking why is there only one B1G team in the second weekend. Based on seeding this is as expected except for the fact that Purdue got embarrassed on the first round.

Was really hoping to see PSU make it to the second weekend.

 

[Heisenbobble]

Are you forgetting Indiana?

Indiana. Is. Not. A. Blue. Blood.

 

[Manual3for4peat]

I’m getting a little tired of hearing how great the big ten is. Pretty sure we put the same number of teams in the sweet sixteen as Podz new conference did.

Until the big ten actually cleans up the officiating and joins the 21st century, there’s no point pretending like we are in some world beating league.

The teams in the big ten are all decent because home court is ridiculous in the big ten because of how bad the officials are. Plain and simple.

 

[One Man Fast Break]

People are still on this mighty Big Ten where a possible DRAFT PICK wouldn't be able to hang, when the team that ran roughshed through the Conference got embarrassed by a team of D2 short guys. Give it a rest. Podz got away, it's like Groce losing the recruitment on Jalen Brunson, it happens. The silver lining is I don't think Podz or not, he was going to rescue the season beyond maybe making it another round, this team had a lot of issue due to not having a point guard that one guy wasn't going to save things. And then he probably leaves for pro ball after anyways.

 

[champaignchris]

Here’s a fun little exercise with regard to the Big 10’s lack of Tournament success…

Who’s the best ex-Big 10 player in the NBA right now?

Jordan Poole, maybe?

In the last 27 years, the top pick of the NBA draft has come out of a current Big 10 school once.

The Big 10 isn’t getting the top end talent.