Why would a kid go to a CFB 2nd tier conference when he could play in CFB big leagues?
Will Illinois eventually benefit from the "Big 2" - "Lesser Others" evolution of CFB conferences? The elite programs (OSU, MI, AL, GA, etc.) will always get the vast majority the 5 star and high 4 star kids. Will lower 4 star and high 3 star kids that previously chose programs in the "Lesser Others" now focus on playing in the "Big 2" due to financial gain and/or greater exposure? Eventually begin to level the playing field in the "Big 2"? Your thoughts?
No disrespect meant to you, but it always bothers me a bit when someone says “why would player X go to school Y.” You make it sound like he’s deciding between Illinois and a D3 school. There are plenty of things that factor into a decision like that — or at least there should be. For many players, I’m sure they value how comfortable they feel at a school and the relationships they develop with coaches.
As for NIL money, I’m not sure where this particular player falls on the NIL “pay scale,” but for a large number of players in football are we really talking life changing money between the two offers? And if by exposure, you mean to NFL scouts, they’ll find you anywhere. While it’s true that the majority of early round picks (and maybe all rounds, I only checked through round 3) this year we’re from the big 2 — just a shade under 60% — that majority wasn’t because of exposure. Those two conferences get a majority of the top players.
As things are set up now, I don’t think we’ll see any huge shift of the low 4, high 3 all jumping to the Big 2 conferences. If NIL disparity grows further for those level of players, sure it will have an impact. The big thing is scholarship limits. I seem to remember there has been a push to increase that number recently. That would have a big impact.
In the end though, there are only so many people who can start or get significant time at a school. So while those level of players you mentioned might be drawn to Big 2 schools out of HS, good chance they finish somewhere else. Can’t get exposure if not playing. So I think conferences like Big 12, etc will still remain relevant — especially to their fan base. I mean on a national and national championship level right now, there really are only 15-20 (maybe a few more) that are relevant. I mean Illinois isn’t really except to its fan base. We root for and are passionate about Illinois because they are the Illini — just as other fan bases are about their schools. I think I saw someone ask “more 8 win football seasons or S16 basketball seasons” over some time frame. You don’t see anyone asking about NCs. Heck, I think just about everyone would be happy with consistent 8 win seasons. But that’s not nationally relevant.
