Pregame: Illinois at Michigan State, Saturday, February 10th, 1:00pm CT, CBS

[Fighter of the Nightman]

I don't see Harmon and Goode going 0 fer from 3 again. I expect them to come out and hit some big shots. Not saying we win but with TJ getting his groove back, Ty and CoHawk playing as they are and Domask being Mr. Consistency, I see us having a better chance of winning than some of you. This is a big game and we are an older team. How we defend is going to make the difference in this game. I think we win but as with the last couple, I won't want to take my BP during the last 5 mins of the game.

View attachment 30919

I found it interesting to look at our 3-point percentages vs. Power Five opponents (and including FAU because they are ranked):

22.2% vs. Rutgers (W 86-63)
25.0% at #17 Tennessee (L 86-79)
26.5% vs. Nebraska (W 87-84 in OT)
27.3% vs. Maryland (L 76-67)
---
30.4% vs. Indiana (W 70-62)
33.3% vs. Missouri (W 97-73)
33.3% at Michigan (W 88-73)
33.3% vs. Michigan State (W 71-68)
33.3% vs. #4 Marquette (L 71-64)
---
40.0% vs. #11 FAU (W 98-89)
41.2% at Ohio State (W 87-75)
42.1% at #1 Purdue (L 83-78)
42.9% at Rutgers (W 76-58)
45.8% at Northwestern (L 96-91 in OT)
---
55.6% vs. Northwestern (W 96-66)

Season Average: 33.9%

Rephrased as our last five games since TSJ returned:

22.2% vs. Rutgers (W 86-63) ... this speaks to effectively getting the ball inside!!
45.8% at Northwestern (L 96-91 in OT) ... REALLY makes it all the more disappointing we missed so many damn layups, any one of which could have won the game.
30.4% vs. Indiana (W 70-62) ... definitely felt "off" all game, but we gutted it out.
41.2% at Ohio State (W 87-75)
26.5% vs. Nebraska (W 87-84 in OT)

So in the last couple games, we have either shot below our season average - both peculiarly at home ... why do we seem to shoot better on the road?! - or sort of exploded to shoot way better. You'd hope we were due for a return to form at MSU where the defense, getting the ball inside and the shooting all click.

 

[Yukon]

I found it interesting to look at our 3-point percentages vs. Power Five opponents (and including FAU because they are ranked):

22.2% vs. Rutgers (W 86-63)
25.0% at #17 Tennessee (L 86-79)
26.5% vs. Nebraska (W 87-84 in OT)
27.3% vs. Maryland (L 76-67)
---
30.4% vs. Indiana (W 70-62)
33.3% vs. Missouri (W 97-73)
33.3% at Michigan (W 88-73)
33.3% vs. Michigan State (W 71-68)
33.3% vs. #4 Marquette (L 71-64)
---
40.0% vs. #11 FAU (W 98-89)
41.2% at Ohio State (W 87-75)
42.1% at #1 Purdue (L 83-78)
42.9% at Rutgers (W 76-58)
45.8% at Northwestern (L 96-91 in OT)
---
55.6% vs. Northwestern (W 96-66)

Season Average: 33.9%

Rephrased as our last five games since TSJ returned:

22.2% vs. Rutgers (W 86-63) ... this speaks to effectively getting the ball inside!!
45.8% at Northwestern (L 96-91 in OT) ... REALLY makes it all the more disappointing we missed so many damn layups, any one of which could have won the game.
30.4% vs. Indiana (W 70-62) ... definitely felt "off" all game, but we gutted it out.
41.2% at Ohio State (W 87-75)
26.5% vs. Nebraska (W 87-84 in OT)

So in the last couple games, we have either shot below our season average - both peculiarly at home ... why do we seem to shoot better on the road?! - or sort of exploded to shoot way better. You'd hope we were due for a return to form at MSU where the defense, getting the ball inside and the shooting all click.

We do those things and I like our chances. We are the better team.

 

[727ill]

Oops.

Not loving a pretty desperate MSU team on their court.

Why does everyone think desperation = success?

You could argue being desperate would make you play worse.

Teams with nothing to lose on the other hand are dangerous.

 

[RockfordIllini]

Biggest keys to me are to limit second chance and transition opportunities. Overall I think we match up pretty well with them. Smaller, quicker guards have given us trouble but I don’t know that Walker can make enough 17 footers to beat us by himself. Just gotta minimize the “cheap” points from put backs, transition 3’s, etc.

 

[ChiefGritty]

Why does everyone think desperation = success?

Desperation is part of it, but through long experience I know a back home get-right game when I see it.

 

[Bigtex]

I found it interesting to look at our 3-point percentages vs. Power Five opponents (and including FAU because they are ranked):

22.2% vs. Rutgers (W 86-63)
25.0% at #17 Tennessee (L 86-79)
26.5% vs. Nebraska (W 87-84 in OT)
27.3% vs. Maryland (L 76-67)
---
30.4% vs. Indiana (W 70-62)
33.3% vs. Missouri (W 97-73)
33.3% at Michigan (W 88-73)
33.3% vs. Michigan State (W 71-68)
33.3% vs. #4 Marquette (L 71-64)
---
40.0% vs. #11 FAU (W 98-89)
41.2% at Ohio State (W 87-75)
42.1% at #1 Purdue (L 83-78)
42.9% at Rutgers (W 76-58)
45.8% at Northwestern (L 96-91 in OT)
---
55.6% vs. Northwestern (W 96-66)

Season Average: 33.9%

Rephrased as our last five games since TSJ returned:

22.2% vs. Rutgers (W 86-63) ... this speaks to effectively getting the ball inside!!
45.8% at Northwestern (L 96-91 in OT) ... REALLY makes it all the more disappointing we missed so many damn layups, any one of which could have won the game.
30.4% vs. Indiana (W 70-62) ... definitely felt "off" all game, but we gutted it out.
41.2% at Ohio State (W 87-75)
26.5% vs. Nebraska (W 87-84 in OT)

So in the last couple games, we have either shot below our season average - both peculiarly at home ... why do we seem to shoot better on the road?! - or sort of exploded to shoot way better. You'd hope we were due for a return to form at MSU where the defense, getting the ball inside and the shooting all click.

I know I pay as much attention to the # of 3's we shoot. Seems like we play best if we shoot 20-25

Marquette 11-33 L
@Rutgers 9-21
FAU 8-20
Tennessee 9-36 L
Missouri 11-33
Northwestern 10-18
@Purdue 8-19 L
Michigan St 7-21
Maryland 6-22 L
@Michigan 6-18
Rutgers 6-27
@Northwestern 11-24 L
Indiana 7-23
@Ohio St 7-17
Nebraska 9-34

 

[Fighter of the Nightman]

Why does everyone think desperation = success?

You could argue being desperate would make you play worse.

Teams with nothing to lose on the other hand are dangerous.

I mean, I think the short answer is that we are a snake-bitten fan base, and (especially during the 2010-2016 years) it seemed like we constantly were the "medicine" for a struggling team, haha. Even now, having the best record of any Big Ten team over the last 5 years, it feels like we have a disproportionate share of players' career nights against us.

Anyway, I wanted to look at our last trips to East Lansing with a number next to our name this millennium:

2022: #12 Illinois 79, #19 Michigan State 74
2021: Michigan State 81, #5 Illinois 72 (the assault on Ayo game)
2006: #10 Illinois 75, #25 Michigan State 68
2005: #1 Illinois 81, #12 Michigan State 68
2003: Michigan State 68, #13 Illinois 65
2002: #18 Illinois 63, Michigan State 61

Other than the weird flop in 2021 (in our final 16 games before Selection Sunday, this was our ONLY loss!!), it seems we actually usually get up for a trip to East Lansing and pay pretty well when we have a good team. Obviously this is just a historic anecdote and this is a completely different team than the last time we played there, but still.

 

[ChiefGritty]

I mean, I think the short answer is that we are a snake-bitten fan base, and (especially during the 2010-2016 years) it seemed like we constantly were the "medicine" for a struggling team, haha. Even now, having the best record of any Big Ten team over the last 5 years, it feels like we have a disproportionate share of players' career nights against us.

Anyway, I wanted to look at our last trips to East Lansing with a number next to our name this millennium:

2022: #12 Illinois 79, #19 Michigan State 74
2021: Michigan State 81, #5 Illinois 72 (the assault on Ayo game)
2006: #10 Illinois 75, #25 Michigan State 68
2005: #1 Illinois 81, #12 Michigan State 68
2003: Michigan State 68, #13 Illinois 65
2002: #18 Illinois 63, Michigan State 61

Other than the weird flop in 2021 (in our final 16 games before Selection Sunday, this was our ONLY loss!!), it seems we actually usually get up for a trip to East Lansing and pay pretty well when we have a good team. Obviously this is just a historic anecdote and this is a completely different team than the last time we played there, but still.

If trends hold we gut it out and win a nail biter on Saturday, joyously humiliate Michigan at home next week and seize a sense of elite momentum, and then completely disappear in losses at Maryland and Penn State.

(I don't think that's what will happen. But we never think that's what's gonna happen against those opponents...)

 

[Emerson Bigguns]

I mean, I think the short answer is that we are a snake-bitten fan base, and (especially during the 2010-2016 years) it seemed like we constantly were the "medicine" for a struggling team, haha. Even now, having the best record of any Big Ten team over the last 5 years, it feels like we have a disproportionate share of players' career nights against us.

Anyway, I wanted to look at our last trips to East Lansing with a number next to our name this millennium:

2022: #12 Illinois 79, #19 Michigan State 74
2021: Michigan State 81, #5 Illinois 72 (the assault on Ayo game)
2006: #10 Illinois 75, #25 Michigan State 68
2005: #1 Illinois 81, #12 Michigan State 68
2003: Michigan State 68, #13 Illinois 65
2002: #18 Illinois 63, Michigan State 61

Other than the weird flop in 2021 (in our final 16 games before Selection Sunday, this was our ONLY loss!!), it seems we actually usually get up for a trip to East Lansing and pay pretty well when we have a good team. Obviously this is just a historic anecdote and this is a completely different team than the last time we played there, but still.

No one looks at Illinois on the schedule and pencils in a victory anymore. We're going to get everyone in this league's best shot, every time out. Pretty much every veteran player in the league has a reason to want to beat us. No pre-game pump-up speeches necessary.

 

[BalloonsTheElephant]

If trends hold we gut it out and win a nail biter on Saturday, joyously humiliate Michigan at home next week and seize a sense of elite momentum, and then completely disappear in losses at Maryland and Penn State.

(I don't think that's what will happen. But we never think that's what's gonna happen against those opponents...)

If Gritty wrote a comeback movie it would end like "Remember Me".

I love your takes, even if they are dripping with unbridled pessimism. I live in that same space at times.

 

[pruman91]

Another game with the zero-izzo's and old mady slug-face-o......can't wait to see that smug midget whining to the refs as the beloved gain control of the game and win by double digits........i don't care how desperate the zero-izzo's are , we will make them much much more desperate after we leave molester city with a win by...............

Illini 81
zero-izzo 70

BEWARE THE HARE !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

[RabidDawgClassic]

Why does everyone think desperation = success?

You could argue being desperate would make you play worse.

Teams with nothing to lose on the other hand are dangerous.

Yes… in poker parlance, MSU currently sits as the player with the middling stack of chips. They’ve got too much left to lose but not enough to bully the table. They’re success now depend on a lucky draw.

 

[Grandpa]

Favorite inbound play with a small lead and opponent trying to deny and trap. Good passer inbounding, 3 Illini near baseline, Andy Kaufmann alone with one defender in our offensive end. Throw the ball up with some air under it. Kaufmann gets it EVERY TIME. Body, strength, and guile. You can foul or watch him get the easy basket. Switch defenders, doesn't matter. Double team, inbound to someone else. It was so much fun.
I tried to find a video, but they just want to show the 3 pointer to beat Iowa, which was fun to watch again.

Lou had a few cool tricks. Wouldn't play a zone until his later years, then only in 2 circumstances. When the other team was inbounding under the basket, and when the other team was dribbling away the time for the last shot. When there were a few seconds left and the man with the ball was ready to try to score Illinois would suddenly switch to a zone which he had never seen Illinois play in his life.

Username checks out.

 

[EyeoftheIllini]

Really glad we have almost a week off. My heart needs a rest. Lotta things to work on before this one.

I thought the same thing on Sunday. Now I’m like, I have to wait until Saturday to see Illini in action? What? I can’t make it.

 

[EyeoftheIllini]

I think MSU is pretty bad. If we rebound, make layups & get back in transition we should win this one. We own their senior class.

We’re going to make layups? Finally.

 

[Iloveorangekoolaid]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1755279370111873384

 

[TheGMan]

Yes… in poker parlance, MSU currently sits as the player with the middling stack of chips. They’ve got too much left to lose but not enough to bully the table. They’re success now depend on a lucky draw.

Ehh not the best analogy, IMHO. I agree that being desperate in basketball doesn't automatically equal success. However, you can certainly out effort an opponent in basketball. So while desperation doesn't always mean success, it can (though not always) make you put in more effort. But sometimes effort can only take you so far.

Unfortunately for my wallet, no matter how hard I try at poker, that doesn't mean I will get good cards.

 

[rtbritt]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1755279370111873384

So look for one or both to have an absolute killer game Saturday..!

 

[RabidDawgClassic]

Ehh not the best analogy, IMHO. I agree that being desperate in basketball doesn't automatically equal success. However, you can certainly out effort an opponent in basketball. So while desperation doesn't always mean success, it can (though not always) make you put in more effort. But sometimes effort can only take you so far.

Unfortunately for my wallet, no matter how hard I try at poker, that doesn't mean I will get good cards.

But, the bigger the stack, the more patient you can be. With a small stack and the blinds coming around, you can only wait so long before you have to move all in, likely with a suspect hand. Likewise, in basketball, as the losses pile up, you can only wait so long before the bubble line approaches and you’ve got to make lineup or strategy adjustments that are at best a coin flip as to whether they’ll work.

 

[alaskaillini]

Unfortunately for my wallet, no matter how hard I try at poker, that doesn't mean I will get good cards.

Since when do you need good cards to win at poker?

 

[RML]

Oops.

Not loving a pretty desperate MSU team on their court.

Lol. If Sparty had won, some would now be moaning, "that's our luck, having to play Sparty just as they finally put everything together for their annual end-of-the year march."

 

[ChiefGritty]

Lol. If Sparty had won, some would now be moaning, "that's our luck, having to play Sparty just as they finally put everything together for their annual end-of-the year march."

I may be wrong about my "you always want the other team coming off a win" theory, but I am consistent.

College sports is thermostatic, I firmly believe that.

 

[Emerson Bigguns]

Lol. If Sparty had won, some would now be moaning, "that's our luck, having to play Sparty just as they finally put everything together for their annual end-of-the year march."

Most of Loyalty 30 seconds before tipoff:

 

[Illini2010-11]

Ehh not the best analogy, IMHO. I agree that being desperate in basketball doesn't automatically equal success. However, you can certainly out effort an opponent in basketball. So while desperation doesn't always mean success, it can (though not always) make you put in more effort. But sometimes effort can only take you so far.

Unfortunately for my wallet, no matter how hard I try at poker, that doesn't mean I will get good cards.

Sounds like you need to work on your poker face and ability to bluff. Doyle Brunson used to regularly play 2-10 off suit.

 

[zentrails]

College sports is thermostatic, I firmly believe that.

adiabatic closed system