Pregame: Illinois at Oregon, Saturday, October 26th, 2:30pm CT, CBS
- Status
pruman91
- interviewing new NL's daily....I really really am
Maybe all of their starters too. I hear they can use the extra time to prepare for midterms. Better safe than sorry- don't want their grades to suffer
TheFlyingIllini1317
- Chicago, IL
Hoping for the best, but I see it 41-14 Ducks, we don't have the horses to hang with them. They'd beat PSU by 17 imo.
MoCoMdIllini
- Montgomery County, Maryland
I'm just looking forward to seeing a high stakes game played in an amazing stadium.
In fear the beloved will be in for a rare kicking. Just hope they come out of there with no injuries.
In fear the beloved will be in for a rare kicking. Just hope they come out of there with no injuries.
Why why why do we go through this every week when people don’t like the point spread. The job of an oddsmaker is not predict the score. His/her job is to predict a line that will bring about as close to an even distribution of bets on the two teams. Oregon money would hit a line of -7 so hard it would be akin to bookie malpractice to set that as a line.
If I’m not an Illini fan, I call your “beat 3 ranked teams” with they all appear to have been overrated. Kansas is 2-5, and given the rest of their schedules and how they’ve been playing, both Neb and Mich might barely make it to bowl eligible. Thankfully I am an Illini fan and loved each of those wins.
Not sure why you’re up in arms over the spread anyway. If it’s that bad, hit it hard and make a bunch of money on Illini. If you aren’t a betting person, then why do you care at all.
RabidDawgClassic
- Los Angeles, CA
For the people who set the line, it’s not personal. It’s what they believe the betting public sees as the reasonable tipping point between the two teams. In a perfect world, they get 50% betting Illinois and 50% betting Oregon. They collect the 10% juice and have zero risk. They want their opening line to fall right on that 50/50 line and adjust it as the bets come in.
Last edited:
Well we scored more than Oregon score on Purdue..So how about looking at it like that?
I guess it depends on how you interpret ‘pressure’.
If we hold them under 30 that’s a big win on defense. Oregon scored 32 against Ohio State when Ohio State had only given up 34 all season combined.
If you think there’s no pressure because we’re expected to lose then fine, but my point is that they should be expecting this to be a high scoring game, and Lunney has little room for error to pull this off.
If Vegas is that far off, as the bets come in, the line will correct itself. If a ton of money comes in on us to beat that spread, the line will reduce. If a ton of money comes in on Oregon to cover, it'll move up. Vegas isn't in the business of losing money. They roll with the public sentiment, try to get the bets to 50/50, then make money on the juice.
The bookies REALLY don't care what the spread is, the over/under or who wins. If you want that spread to drop, you along with 500,000 of your friends, put money on us to beat the spread.
ChiefGritty
- Chicago, IL
We covered 19.5 by the absolute skin of our teeth at PSU, then gave up 49 points at home to Purdue.
I kinda like us to cover that line (this is not a Chip Kelly run-it-up Oregon offense anymore), but it's two touchdowns without breaking a sweat.
Michigan is DRAMATICALLY worse than Oregon. No comparison.
I think this could actually be tighter if we take care of the ball. Hey, we all know they are going to score points but I think we can score some too. Just not enough.
You mean there's a chance?
IMHO I think if we have the the DL and OLjust matching the effort they had during the Michigan game then to start out there won't be 30 points scored by them because we will have more possession ball going on..Teams have had less rewarding in their passing games against us( besides Purdue because they knew the defense back and forth,and for some reason QBs get to the run on us.)in most games.We do put pressure on teams like every week by scoring first ..We have many running options and receiving threats as well..I'm not assuming we will win ,but besides OSU they didn't have as tough of schedule as we've had.This will be our 5th ranked opponent and we're not doing too bad..
Illwinsagain
- Cary, IL
I am so glad that I remember the transitive property from Geometry. It is very useful in following sports. /s
band camp
- STL City
That's very interesting. I'm not a gambler/bettor, I didn't know how spreads work. Makes sense. Thank you.
That’s why a spread will change during the week. They will move it to get money to come in on the other side
ChiefGritty
- Chicago, IL
For whatever it's worth, in 2024 betting lines are essentially just a pure reflection of what the advanced stats are suggesting about a game, both for accuracy's sake and because that's where the lion's share of the now nationwide and legal sharp money is going to come in anyway.
Today's lines are made by and for sophisticated data-driven operations.
Today's lines are made by and for sophisticated data-driven operations.
Illini2010-11
- Sugar Grove
This is true. There are a lot fewer "uneducated" folks betting on games on feel and heart. With so many predictive analytics available to the casual voter now, it is no surprise to see the betting lines reflect what the analytics show.
If the game were to be held in Champaign, the spread would be closer, but I would still expect Oregon to be at least 2 TD favorites. Not a slight to the Illini, just an indication of how much better Oregon is.
ChiefGritty
- Chicago, IL
Well though critically, also a reflection of how deeply skeptical advanced stats are of this Illini team.
- Status