12 team playoff changes what the top 12 will be. Let’s be honest it’s going to be a consideration. In the scenario of a hypothetical 10-2 Illinois the questions then would start about who we beat and our resume etc. Our metrics probably wouldn’t do us any favors either especially compared to a 3 loss SEC team. Listen I don’t really care. If we are 10-2 I’ll be dancing on Lake Michigan. I’m just being realistic. Our best win would be either a mediocre Michigan or a mediocre Nebraska (by the rankings). 10-2 with a win over Oregon and we probably could go 9-3 and make the playoff though lol.
Illini Football 2024
- Status
Fighter of the Nightman
- Chicago, IL
Let’s just at least let ourselves get the brakes beat off at Oregon before we proactively talk about who else would handily destroy us.
Maybe? Well, let's take a look down memory lane at the teams who would have been left out at 10-2 in favor of 3 loss teams over the past 10 years:
Rankings are based on final CFP ranking as that is what matters for Top 12 purposes
2021: 10-3 Conf Champ with 2 good wins, 2 bad losses over B12 team with no good wins, no bad losses. Lesson: Beat Someone Good
10-3 Utah (P12): Pac12 Champ, Key Wins: N-Oregon (#14), H-Oregon (#14), Losses: A-BYU (#13), A-OrSt (NR), A-SDSU (NR)
over
10-2 Oklahoma (B12): Key Wins: None, Losses: A-Baylor (#7), A-OkSt (#9)
2019: 3 loss teams with more/better key wins including away from home. Lesson: Good Away/Neutral Win>Bad Loss
10-3 Wisconsin (B10): Key Wins: H-Michigan (#14), H-Iowa (#16), A-Minn (#18) Losses: N-OSU (#2), A-OSU (#2), A-ILL (NR)
9-3 Auburn (SEC): Key Wins: H-Alabama (#13), N-Oregon (#6), Losses: H-Georgia (#5), A-LSU (#1), A-Florida (#9)
over
10-2 Alabama (SEC): Key Wins: None, Losses: A-Auburn (#12), H-LSU (#1)
10-2 Notre Dame (Ind): Key Wins: H-Navy (#23), H-Virginia (#24), Losses: A-Michigan (#14), A-Georgia (#5)
10-2 Minnesota (B10): Key Wins: H-PSU (#10), Losses: H-Wisconsin (#8), A-Iowa (#16)
2018: Huh... Wazzu should be in in my opinion Lesson: B10 brand name>P12 non contender bias?
9-3 PSU (B10): Key Wins: None, Losses: A-Michigan (#7), H-MSU (NR), H-OSU (#6)
over
10-2 Washington State (P10): Key Wins: H-Utah (#17), Losses: H-Washington (#9), A-USC (NR)
2016: Lessons: Beat someone, Good wins>>>Bad losses, Win head to head against fellow CFP bubble team
9-3 Ok State (B12): Key Wins: H-WVU (#16), H-Pitt (#23) Losses: A-Oklahoma (#7), A-Baylor (NR), H-CMU (NR)
over
10-2 WVU (B12): Key Wins: None, Losses: H-Oklahoma (#7), A-Ok St (#12)
So maybe there's a brand name bias based on the one 2018 result? But other than that, it really seems that for the CFP they value teams in the following order:
Good Wins Away From Home>>Good Wins at Home>Number of Losses>>>Devaluing due to Bad Losses>>>>>No good wins
Not sure conference will have much effect, at least it hasn't shown to in the past, though we'll see how they handle things the next couple years.
RabidDawgClassic
- Los Angeles, CA
Request: Can you add “fake punts” to the list?Updated video highlight compilations from this season (Michigan game added)
Passing Touchdowns (15)
We cover the first 20 min. on Joel Klatt Show today... - the exposure overall is pretty darn good rn...
Dan
Admin
Altmyer Added to Manning Award Watch List - University of Illinois Athletics
Illini quarterback is one of 14 added to the watch list for the top QB honor.
fightingillini.com
Altmyer Added to Manning Award Watch List - University of Illinois Athletics
Illini quarterback is one of 14 added to the watch list for the top QB honor.
Yeah I’ve been thinking this lately. Feels like Minnesota’s the game that’s going to decide if this is a really good season that will kind of be sharing attention at the end of it with basketball starting or an all-time special season that will have everyone’s full attention.
If we hypothetically win out we'll be top 2 or 3 in the BigTen and pretty much have a gauranteed spot in the playoffs.
If we win out except for Oregon then using the current AP ranking as a guideline we'd have for the 12 teams:
1. B10 - Oregon - Champ 1
2. SEC - Georgia - Champ 2
3. ACC - Miami - Champ 3
4. B12 - Iowa State - Champ 4
5. B10 - Penn State - #3 Ranking
6. B10 - Ohio State - #4 Ranking
7. SEC - Texas - #5 Ranking
8. SEC - Tennesee - #7 Ranking
9. SEC - LSU - #8 Ranking
10. ACC - Clemson - #9 Ranking
11. B12 - BYU - #11 Ranking
12. MWC - Boise State - Champ 5
We're going to be likely competing against the following teams for a playoff spot:
1. 2nd place ACC and B12 teams
2. Notre Dame (and committee bias)
3. The 4th SEC team (B10 and SEC likely will always have 3 teams minimum in this new era)
4. Army/Navy from the American conference (commitee may also have bias to place another conference champ over a 4th SEC or B10 team)
If we win out except for Oregon then using the current AP ranking as a guideline we'd have for the 12 teams:
1. B10 - Oregon - Champ 1
2. SEC - Georgia - Champ 2
3. ACC - Miami - Champ 3
4. B12 - Iowa State - Champ 4
5. B10 - Penn State - #3 Ranking
6. B10 - Ohio State - #4 Ranking
7. SEC - Texas - #5 Ranking
8. SEC - Tennesee - #7 Ranking
9. SEC - LSU - #8 Ranking
10. ACC - Clemson - #9 Ranking
11. B12 - BYU - #11 Ranking
12. MWC - Boise State - Champ 5
We're going to be likely competing against the following teams for a playoff spot:
1. 2nd place ACC and B12 teams
2. Notre Dame (and committee bias)
3. The 4th SEC team (B10 and SEC likely will always have 3 teams minimum in this new era)
4. Army/Navy from the American conference (commitee may also have bias to place another conference champ over a 4th SEC or B10 team)
Agreed. So how about we check in on ticket sales for the Minnesota game? The Memorial Stadium Sellout Watch tracker sits at just over 54,000 tickets sold. As of this morning several sections in the West and East Mains have no available tickets (the East could surely release some of the upper rows at some point). The Horseshoe has 279 seats left. Once those are gone the East Balcony may start selling off a little more.
But we thought that about Kansas. And Nebraska. Then Purdue..And of course Michigan. The bar gets raised as our win record extends, along with our bowl and CFP prospects. Each next winnable game becomes more important.
Had classifed that fake punt as a "rush", but yeah, why not? Will add fake punt.
Maybe combine it with the touchdown pass to Henderson against Nebraska, both under the header “Surprise plays”? I don’t consider them tricks.
Dan
Admin
College Football TV Ratings
College football TV ratings for the 2025 regular season, bowls, College Football Playoff and National Championship.
www.sportsmediawatch.com
Fighter of the Nightman
- Chicago, IL
Love to see this! I will go ahead and predict that if we play Oregon close, this one will be above 57k. If that happens and it's the night game on NBC, I'll boldly predict our third sellout of the year!
On this note, another reminder to everyone the incredible exposure we are getting compared to past seasons due to the hot start ... average viewers for our games the last couple years!
College Football TV Ratings
College football TV ratings for the 2025 regular season, bowls, College Football Playoff and National Championship.
2021: 1.05 million (high of 3.77M, low of 139k)
2022: 1.24 million (high of 5.47M, low of 176k)
2023: 993k (high of 3.22M, low of 294k)
2024: 1.95 million (high of 4.21M, low of 112k)
Just FWIW, our average without the Thursday night snoozer vs. Eastern Illinois that started late is 2.15 million.
Illini2010-11
- Sugar Grove
The two games that I have circled as "foundational" is Minnesota and Michigan State. If Illini win both those games, it would be the first time since 2001 that Illinois went undefeated at home for an entire season...so relatively new territory for the program.
Fighter of the Nightman
- Chicago, IL
Yep, I am as pumped as anyone for this weekend ... but it's icing on the cake. We at least need to beat Minnesota and MSU at home for a couple reasons:
1. Payback for MSU for (I don't want to be dramatic here, but come on...) effectively ruining our 2022 season, at least to some extent. While 2022 remains a fond memory for us fans, dropping that stinker at home vs. our biggest crowd in years set the tone for losing 3 straight and missing out on the Big Ten Championship game by just one game. It also REALLY didn't sit right with me that for what seemed like such a great season, we lost ALL THREE crossover matchups vs. the Big Ten East.
2. Bret has utterly dominated PJ Fleck and never lost to him. Losing to him while we are the higher-ranked team and favored at home would just be a disastrous pulling of the rug from underneath this season.
3. Rutgers seems due for a dead-cat-bounce game, and that is our last remaining road game after Oregon. Winning on the road is difficult, and we need to win out at home in front of our own fans to give us a bit of cushion before we head to Jersey. I am confident that we will come out fired up for Northwestern at Wrigley, given that game's location gives it a bit more meaning than it would have had in Evanston.
4. Like you said, it would be an important statement for this program to go undefeated at home. It signals that Champaign is a legitimate gameday environment where opposing programs should NEVER expect a win. It wasn't long ago that we might have had the worst home field advantage in the conference or at least bottom three ... last Saturday, it was amazing. A crazy turnaround, and it's important to (A) achieve that STAT of being undefeated at home and (B) keep showing our home fans that buy tickets and show up some wins to maintain and grow the fan base.
GrayGhost77
- Centennial, CO
Yep, I am as pumped as anyone for this weekend ... but it's icing on the cake. We at least need to beat Minnesota and MSU at home for a couple reasons:
1. Payback for MSU for (I don't want to be dramatic here, but come on...) effectively ruining our 2022 season, at least to some extent. While 2022 remains a fond memory for us fans, dropping that stinker at home vs. our biggest crowd in years set the tone for losing 3 straight and missing out on the Big Ten Championship game by just one game. It also REALLY didn't sit right with me that for what seemed like such a great season, we lost ALL THREE crossover matchups vs. the Big Ten East.
2. Bret has utterly dominated PJ Fleck and never lost to him. Losing to him while we are the higher-ranked team and favored at home would just be a disastrous pulling of the rug from underneath this season.
3. Rutgers seems due for a dead-cat-bounce game, and that is our last remaining road game after Oregon. Winning on the road is difficult, and we need to win out at home in front of our own fans to give us a bit of cushion before we head to Jersey. I am confident that we will come out fired up for Northwestern at Wrigley, given that game's location gives it a bit more meaning than it would have had in Evanston.
4. Like you said, it would be an important statement for this program to go undefeated at home. It signals that Champaign is a legitimate gameday environment where opposing programs should NEVER expect a win. It wasn't long ago that we might have had the worst home field advantage in the conference or at least bottom three ... last Saturday, it was amazing. A crazy turnaround, and it's important to (A) achieve that STAT of being undefeated at home and (B) keep showing our home fans that buy tickets and show up some wins to maintain and grow the fan base.
FotN's bosses at work:
mhuml32
Gesture of Northern Aggression
There's a chance Minnesota is favored, dependent on this weekend's outcomes. I don't see a line out there right now but my guess is books would put it close. My guess is it would right now be Illinois -2.5.
Illini2010-11
- Sugar Grove
You won't see an official line until after both teams finish their game this week. I think you are about right. ESPN has Illini projected to win 56% of time. That would translate to about -3.5. I think the likely open will be around -4.5 for Illinois, barring some unexpected outcomes this weekend.
Fighter of the Nightman
- Chicago, IL
FOTN gets his work done at lightning speed and delivers it to his superiors "on time" ... really frees up a lot of the day.FotN's bosses at work:
pruman91
- interviewing new NL's daily....I really really am
FOTN gets his work done at lightning speed and delivers it to his superiors "on time" ... really frees up a lot of the day.
- Status