NBA Draft
- Status
Epsilon
M tipping over
- Pdx
The 2025 NCAA Tournament might showcase the best one-and-done class ever
Even without Rutgers and North Carolina, the 2025 NCAA Tournament could still display unprecedented levels of freshman talent
www.cbssports.com
Shows KJ at 5, WR at 37, TI at n/a.
I'll trade you 1 year of will but a at least 2 games he goes off in the NCAA tourney at a minimum! I think that's a good deal
ptgrd23
- orange county CA
I think it depends how much NIL Will gets next year.
2 way contract pays half NBA min salary so Will would get ~$290k per year but does start clock ticking toward free agency.
He will be on national television at Illinois and can try to boost his stock to first round even lottery.
If he can lead us to elite 8 again by averaging 20+ I am willing to let him go. However I think its more likely
2 way contract pays half NBA min salary so Will would get ~$290k per year but does start clock ticking toward free agency.
He will be on national television at Illinois and can try to boost his stock to first round even lottery.
If he can lead us to elite 8 again by averaging 20+ I am willing to let him go. However I think its more likely
Still think he needs year 2. A larger NIL deal + moving to top 10 of 2026 isn't too bad.
He'll likely get $4M/year in the lower end of the 1st round.
Think that's lottery territory. Late first round I think is closer to $2-2.5M/yr
I’ll take it if you can guarantee one of those games is at the very least in the elite 8 lol
robertgoulet
IL Board Resident Crooner
- Austin, TX
Deeper in his write-up on ESPN+ he mentions that, if his recent play continues, Riley will likely be back in the lottery in the next update.
That's pick #20 there. If my math is right ...
Year 1: $2,771,800
Year 2: $2,910,400
Year 3: $3,048,800
Year 4: $4,701,250 (54.2% increase over year 3)
Year 5: $7,207,016 (53.3% increase over year 4)
Total: $20,639,266
Over the length of, say, a 5-year contract, that averages out to $4,127,853 per year.
There's just no incentive for him to come back if he's a first rounder. He would be getting to his second NBA contract a year later. So, he would essentially be trading a year of NIL (~$1M) for a year on an NBA veteran contract ($12M+). To break even in that deal, he would need to come back and get drafted at least 7th from what I can tell. Or in other words, if he comes back and he's not a top 7 pick, he will have cost himself hundreds of thousands if not millions. Why take the risk?
Now if he's a borderline 1st round pick with a chance to fall to the 2nd round, it's a different story.
Joel Goodson
- it's all ball bearings, nowadays
the key is where he slots in. I doubt he's a 1st rounder. hopefully he comes back
the replies are worth reading too
Tomi is important. Hope he comes back but not surprised he has the NBA's attention.
I think there's two related misconceptions about the NBA that I see on here a lot.
One is that NBA scouts care about the kind of deficiencies we often see in Freshmen. Strength, conditioning, sloppy ball handling, etc. NBA scouts don't care because, like us, they know that those are the kinds of things that time and experience often fix pretty easily. If anything, NBA scouts will think that an NBA development program will do a better job than a second year in college. So in actuality, this is an argument against staying for a lot of players. What if, for example, Riley stays another year and doesn't look stronger. Will scouts ding him for not taking the step they expected he would?
The other is that a second year of college is an optimal way of developing. As above, that's not how NBA scouts see it. And it makes sense. You get better by playing against better talent - so why wouldn't a year spent practicing against NBA players and getting time in NBA games, or barring that G-League games, not be better for development than playing against a lot of players who frankly aren't even good enough for the NBA? I haven't really seen any empirical evidence that one is better than the other, but I think this is just the way the NBA views it, so it's the way NBA draft hopefuls are going to view it. If you're not going to get drafted in the first round, sure, take another year and try and develop some of the skills that NBA scouts want to see. But the list of guys who have tried to do that and turned into 4-or-5 year college players with no hope of an NBA career is long.
One is that NBA scouts care about the kind of deficiencies we often see in Freshmen. Strength, conditioning, sloppy ball handling, etc. NBA scouts don't care because, like us, they know that those are the kinds of things that time and experience often fix pretty easily. If anything, NBA scouts will think that an NBA development program will do a better job than a second year in college. So in actuality, this is an argument against staying for a lot of players. What if, for example, Riley stays another year and doesn't look stronger. Will scouts ding him for not taking the step they expected he would?
The other is that a second year of college is an optimal way of developing. As above, that's not how NBA scouts see it. And it makes sense. You get better by playing against better talent - so why wouldn't a year spent practicing against NBA players and getting time in NBA games, or barring that G-League games, not be better for development than playing against a lot of players who frankly aren't even good enough for the NBA? I haven't really seen any empirical evidence that one is better than the other, but I think this is just the way the NBA views it, so it's the way NBA draft hopefuls are going to view it. If you're not going to get drafted in the first round, sure, take another year and try and develop some of the skills that NBA scouts want to see. But the list of guys who have tried to do that and turned into 4-or-5 year college players with no hope of an NBA career is long.
I tend to agree with you and that's why I think Will is probably a first rounder if he plays like he has been recently. I do think some players benefit from a 2nd or more years of development via higher draft place. TSJ is a good example.
Yeah TSJ certainly did the right thing for himself, but he's kind of the exception that proves the rule. If he'd have been a 1st rounder at any point before his last season, it would have made more sense to go earlier. I do think it makes sense for guys who are likely 2nd round picks to try and move into the 1st.
That's what I was trying to say but it's not super rare. Ayo basically did the same thing but of course it's arguable whether that helped him. It's not Rocket science. If you believe you are a 1st rounder, you go for it. If you think you are 2nd round or worse, you stay.
The problem, of course, is that a whole lot of players believe they are first rounders, but only some of them are right. What should Will do if he has a chance but no guarantee?
ptgrd23
- orange county CA
Only 1st 2 years of first round pick are guaranteed. so 20th pick $6M
$12M minimum guaranteed for 7th pick so with total for 4 year control $29M so $7M per year but eligible for free agency after year 4 not year 5.
I could believe Tomislav gets drafted in the second round but would be surprised if he goes first round. Because of that, he could return another year just because of how bad going in the second round is.
If Riley continues playing how he has, I could see him getting a draft spot in the 10-20 range but I think he's at least achieved getting taken in the first round. There's too much potential there to pass up. Someone will want to take that bet and stick him in the G-League to develop.
If Riley continues playing how he has, I could see him getting a draft spot in the 10-20 range but I think he's at least achieved getting taken in the first round. There's too much potential there to pass up. Someone will want to take that bet and stick him in the G-League to develop.
Who on this team will be drafted ? KJ is not playing like a lottery pick. He may get drafted. Will Riley is beginning to show potential. Still too skinny. Needs a lot of bulking up. Tomi is good and can hit the 3.
- Status