Coaching Carousel (Basketball)

[21ChampaignSt]

You're not the only one who thinks that. If we have a losing record 6 of the next 8 years, don't make the NIT, but the years we do get to the NCAAT.....we get to two sweet 16's, you'll be happier. I call BS. It sounds good now, but the years that were 15-17....you'll be pi$$ed because you're pi$$ed now that we're in the tournament every year, but we don't get as far as you want.

The basketball season is 5 months long. Don't take 4 months and 25 days for granted.

Thinks what?? My guy, you are just making all kinds of stuff up and completely mischaracterizing my point. I've made several posts recently advocating for the job BU has done here and I don't think you've acknowledged any of those but you want to throw this nonsense at me over this post which I begin and end by saying BU should get more time?

100% of my support is not dependent on two games in March. My post was quite clear that I was looking at his full body of work. Not only that but I've compared his body of work to every coach who came before him. Compared his tourney success to the program's over the last 45 years and you want to try to make it look like I'm the one making some knee jerk, short sighted, emotional reaction?

IF the year is 2026 and BU still only has the one second weekend appearance, I don't think it would be unreasonable to entertain a coaching change. IF that were the case, he would be 7-6 in the tournament at best. I wouldn't be reacting to two games in March, I'd be reacting to 13 games in March. I'd be reacting to the fact that the only modern eras of Illinois basketball to do worse in the tournament were ones in which we were saddled with sanctions or Mike Thomas. You should be able to make it to at least 3 second weekends (probably more like 4) every 10 years at Illinois. IF the year is 2026 and he still only has one, he would have to go to the second weekend two out of the next four years (again I think it should be more like 3 out of 4 but I'm being conservative) and at that point, why would anyone expect for that to happen? If he hangs another B1G banner in that time, then fine, give him another year.

Post season success is mandatory at Illinois. We're not a poverty program. I hope BU gets things turned around next year.

 

[Map of the world]

I agree. I'd much rather string 20 win seasons together year in and year out and have the rush of being in EVERY tournament(with some conference championships baked in) than judge a guy over an additional game.

I completely disagree. 20 win seasons are worthless when you peak in December and opposing teams adjust and we regress exponentially. I want to see a team that finishes strong and is playing at their full potential when the NCAA Tournament begins. Wins mean nothing if you can't make it to the second weekend.

 

[Snoopy]

60% of Podz' shots at Santa Clara were 2 pointers - 275 out of 460. He shot 5.8 3s per game, which was tied for 225th most in the NCAA that year.

There is no way to frame not enabling Podz to make significant contributions to the Illinois team as anything but a failure. Brad is paid millions to identify and develop basketball talent. Podz is NBA level talent. Of course, every coach is allowed some failures and hindsight is 20/20. But if one is making a list of Brad's hits and misses, Podz is unequivocally a miss.

 

[Illinimark]

I know that this is going to be an unpopular take but my choice to replace Brad is Chris Collins. The kid can coach and he can inspire. With our NIL and a top recruiter on staff I think he would be very successful here. Any coach that can vault the Mild Kitties into relevance would raise the bar in Champaign. JMHO

 

[Jules Winnfield]

Expectations are always tricky, because you have to balance short-term and long-term. I also am somewhat careful on exactly how much to weight the NCAA tournament, because single-elimination events do sometimes produce unexpected results. I'd probably start with these. Others can tell me if I'm way off base or not.

Regular season - Top 6 in the league pretty much every season (I know there will always be an outlier season with injuries or some other very unusual event), top 4 (which I would say is contending for a regular season conference championship) 2 out of every 3 seasons. That may be too strict, so if anyone has a better baseline I'm willing to adjust.

Post-season - Over the long-term, Illinois should play within (-1) game of its seed line for both the BTT and the NCAA. So in a year where Illinois is a 2 seed, (-1) would be Sweet 16. If they were a 1 seed, then (-1) would be Elite 8 since chalk is all 1 seeds making a Final Four. There will always be a year where an upset occurs. I'd also say that a 1 seed losing in the Elite 8 to a 2 seed or a 2 seed losing to a 3 seed in the Sweet 16 (like what Illinois did to Iowa State last year) isn't really an upset. To me, that feels like a reasonable long-term expectation that would show issues if a team consistently was a high seed and losing in the first or second round.

But maybe I'm overthinking this too much (and I likely am here).

A championship coach is like meeting your wife. When you know you know Brad Underwood is not a Championship coach. Bill Self 3 seasons at Tulsa won the conference championship twice and made it to the round of 32 an elite 8 at Tulsa . Bill Self then comes to Illinois 3 seasons 1 Elite, and 1 Sweet 16 , 1 round of 32, won the Big Ten Regular Season Championship twice and Tied for second. Brad Underachieving Underwood at Illinois 8 seasons .Tied for the Big Ten regular season championship once, 2 Big Ten Tournament Championships, 1 Sweet Sixteen, 1 Elite 8 . That’s not worth 6 million dollars and Brad Underwood is no Bill Self and never will be. Brad is not worth the money. Brad Underwood WILL NEVER LEAD ILLINOIS TO A NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP. That’s the GOAL

 

[Second place is 1st loser]

I completely disagree. 20 win seasons are worthless when you peak in December and opposing teams adjust and we regress exponentially. I want to see a team that finishes strong and is playing at their full potential when the NCAA Tournament begins. Wins mean nothing if you can't make it to the second weekend.

Here's where the fundamental disagreement is. Wins means everything. It's always a matter of wanting more. If you're in the sweet 16 every year but lose, then you're labeled as not being able to win the big game because you can't get to a final four.

Purdue is crushing Painter right now. They're always underachieving in the Tournament(lost to a 16 seed two years ago), went to the title game last year and now.....they've lost four in a row and he's a bad coach again. They lose the NPOY....doesn't matter. We lose TJ and play four freshmen.... doesn't matter.

If Brad did ever leave, 90% of this board would melt down because NOTHING is a guarantee. BU has gotten our program where anything below a sweet 16 is unacceptable.

He did his job.

 

[Jules Winnfield]

How many Big Ten Championships(Tournament or Season) did we have from 2007 - Brad. How many with Brad at the helm?

How many NCAA Tournaments did we make from 2007 to Brad? How many under Brad?

How many top 4 NCAA Tournament seeds from 2007 to Brad? How many since Brad has been here?

Feel free to add or not add the COVID year.

The last three games have been good awful, but to say results haven't been good is ridiculous. To act like it's a guarantee that we can just plug and play another coach, which will even remotely come close to Brad's success.....is also ridiculous.

The grass is always greener......

Dude Bill Self was at Illinois for 3 seasons and his record is still better than Brad’s 8 years I’m sick and tired of the Brad Underwood cult members. Bruce Weber’s record is better than Brad . Weber didn’t have NIL or a brand new state of the art basketball facility. Brad ain’t it dude . Keep lying to yourself with mediocrity. Illinois will NEVER reach the Final 4 with Brad

 

[Second place is 1st loser]

A championship coach is like meeting your wife. When you know you know Brad Underwood is not a Championship coach. Bill Self 3 seasons at Tulsa won the conference championship twice and made it to the round of 32 an elite 8 at Tulsa . Bill Self then comes to Illinois 3 seasons 1 Elite, and 1 Sweet 16 , 1 round of 32, won the Big Ten Regular Season Championship twice and Tied for second. Brad Underachieving Underwood at Illinois 8 seasons .Tied for the Big Ten regular season championship once, 2 Big Ten Tournament Championships, 1 Sweet Sixteen, 1 Elite 8 . That’s not worth 6 million dollars and Brad Underwood is no Bill Self and never will be. Brad is not worth the money. Brad Underwood WILL NEVER LEAD ILLINOIS TO A NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP. That’s the GOAL

Who has? Give me a name, right now, that you can GUARANTEE us those results since you're future telling.

I'll take the guy who has made 20+ wins the basement of a season and pulled a complete dumpster fire of a program to this point of expectation.

Hey, you may get your wish. We'll see shortly.

 

[IlliniFaninHoosierLand]

And so the carousel begins . . . Craig Smith fired at Utah.

Odd timing for it too. Especially with the wins over Kansas and Kansas State in the last couple weeks.

 

[USAFILLINI]

Odd timing for it too. Especially with the wins over Kansas and Kansas State in the last couple weeks.

Coaches may start finding themselves with less leeway than they once had. In the past, the fear was that rebuilding a roster could take years, but with NIL, teams can be reshaped year after year. The key now is keeping donors satisfied and securing more funding for your NIL efforts. Schools that hesitate to make necessary changes will fall behind in the NIL race, setting their programs back, much like the long rebuilding processes of the past

 

[Noblesville Illini]

Has him searching elsewhere also correlated to losing some interest in coaching Illinois? Hence our subpar season.

I don't know... Brad just maybe hasn't been/seemed quite as engaged this year? Or maybe he has....just making an assumption upon our team's results.

Brad’s total eclipse of the heart?

 

[biglug58]

I know that this is going to be an unpopular take but my choice to replace Brad is Chris Collins. The kid can coach and he can inspire. With our NIL and a top recruiter on staff I think he would be very successful here. Any coach that can vault the Mild Kitties into relevance would raise the bar in Champaign. JMHO

 

[BretMyBeachHouse]

I consider the second weekend important, but it's not the most important measure. I want to finish the year in the top 25 every year. That's a measure against all teams in America. We can reasonably aim for that and we've had runs where we've achieved that. we're likely going to go 2 out of 3 years not having done that. I'm pretty much agreeable to letting BU right the ship and move it from okay to good or great. But we're paying him top 10 money because top 25 every year is the baseline.

 

[Noblesville Illini]

For how much we spend it shouldn’t take 5+ years to get to the 2nd weekend … IMO …

Illini reflection of the current state of basketball program

 

[Noblesville Illini]

If we are spending top 10 dollars on a coach and NIL, it stands to reason we ought to be making the second weekend more often than not if we want to claim we are getting our money's worth.

Thank the Lord, we don’t have UNC‘s AD!

 

[Big Jack]

So, 100% of your support depends on two games in March versus the 30 prior......over the last 5 years?

This is always the million dollar question. Is the multiple conference championship banners(season and tournament )not as important as one more March win?

 

[the juiceman cometh]

Dude Bill Self was at Illinois for 3 seasons and his record is still better than Brad’s 8 years I’m sick and tired of the Brad Underwood cult members. Bruce Weber’s record is better than Brad . Weber didn’t have NIL or a brand new state of the art basketball facility. Brad ain’t it dude . Keep lying to yourself with mediocrity. Illinois will NEVER reach the Final 4 with Brad

I'm calling it now, before the season is over someone is earnestly going to argue that "actually BU is not any better than Groce."

 

[Noblesville Illini]

We can afford both … We simply didn’t capitalize on the move to 5 assistants … I made a post here and maybe someone can find it but I said this is the time to take advantage of this rule and gain a leg up, get some guys in here that can coach X&O and/or bring in a guy who’s tied in with elite talent …

Texas Tech uses this rule to their advantage … As does Ole Miss … Instead we promoted Hamer and Tyler …

 

[Illini2010-11]

Dude Bill Self was at Illinois for 3 seasons and his record is still better than Brad’s 8 years I’m sick and tired of the Brad Underwood cult members. Bruce Weber’s record is better than Brad . Weber didn’t have NIL or a brand new state of the art basketball facility. Brad ain’t it dude . Keep lying to yourself with mediocrity. Illinois will NEVER reach the Final 4 with Brad

This lacks some serious context. Weber's favorable win/loss was padded in his first 3 seasons (especially the +35 wins in 2004-2005 season), based off of largely Self's recruits. Once his recruits cycled through, his record was very meh.

Underwood tore the roster completely down, and his first couple seasons were a disaster before Ayo and Kofi.

To be clear, I am concerned about the trajectory of the team, but the program is more stable now than when Weber and Groce left. I don't personally believe Brad is the guy to get us to the next level, but he deserves a chance to clean up his staff and continue on (unless his stubbornness persists).

 

[PepeSilvia]

Every team Brad has lost to in the tourney has beaten a one seed in that same tournament. Due for a break for Pete’s sake.

Well the one year the one seed was the Illini in a game where they got thoroughly out coached and outplayed.

That Loyola team was very very good but that was a pretty stunning loss because the Illini didn't really even have any hope. Just a thorough beatdown.

Also disappointing because I think that Illini team matched up very well with Oklahoma State and Houston(Kofi and Ayo would have been tough for a small Houston team) who they would have played if they won.

 

[schnaurt]

Dude Bill Self was at Illinois for 3 seasons and his record is still better than Brad’s 8 years I’m sick and tired of the Brad Underwood cult members. Bruce Weber’s record is better than Brad . Weber didn’t have NIL or a brand new state of the art basketball facility. Brad ain’t it dude . Keep lying to yourself with mediocrity. Illinois will NEVER reach the Final 4 with Brad

Why compare him to the best coach of the last 15 years in college bball. Ridiculous to think Brad couldn’t get to a final four. Just went to an elite eight last year. You see that as peaked but all of his coaching history suggests he is still on an upward trend. There are always some lows on the way up. The key is, can you hold off selling to see the reward.

 

[BretMyBeachHouse]

You see that as peaked but all of his coaching history suggests he is still on an upward trend.

Well, that's not really true. Which is kinda the crux of the move on crowd. You can't just brush away the disasters in roster construction in two out of the last three years.

All of his coaching history to me suggests that he has some significant flaws that need to be fixed.

 

[Oracle21]

Why compare him to the best coach of the last 15 years in college bball. Ridiculous to think Brad couldn’t get to a final four. Just went to an elite eight last year. You see that as peaked but all of his coaching history suggests he is still on an upward trend. There are always some lows on the way up. The key is, can you hold off selling to see the reward.

Bruce Weber got to an Elite 8 at Kansas State and they still fired him.

Frank Martin took South Carolina to a Final 4. They still fired him.

Calipari was ran out of Kentucky bc he didn’t get enough out of the talent hired.

I think in the past, where it took years to build a program that you had to be patient with coaches. But now with NIL and portal free agency, college sports is like pro sports. Firing coaches should not be a difficult decision.

Juwan Howard had an Elite 8, and a Sweet 16. Michigan still fired him and Dusty May put them right back to contending.

I don’t think you need to wait for one terrible season to fire a guy. If you see an upgrade, go do it

 

[schnaurt]

Well, that's not really true. Which is kinda the crux of the move on crowd. You can't just brush away the disasters in roster construction in two out of the last three years.

All of his coaching history to me suggests that he has some significant flaws that need to be fixed.

Example to help. If he went from first round exit. Then two second round exits. Then a first round loss but then his first Elite Eight that would resemble an upward trend. Even a first round loss this year and then A final four next year would still be an upward trend. Again, almost all coaches have their crap years. Is the trajectory going upwards? In this case, yes.

 

[OrangeKrush1981]

This lacks some serious context. Weber's favorable win/loss was padded in his first 3 seasons (especially the +35 wins in 2004-2005 season), based off of largely Self's recruits. Once his recruits cycled through, his record was very meh.

Underwood tore the roster completely down, and his first couple seasons were a disaster before Ayo and Kofi.

To be clear, I am concerned about the trajectory of the team, but the program is more stable now than when Weber and Groce left. I don't personally believe Brad is the guy to get us to the next level, but he deserves a chance to clean up his staff and continue on (unless his stubbornness persists).

I fully agree with this assessment.

Brad has done a very good job or lifting the program back to where it had historically been before the struggles that Weber and then Groce had. But I, too, am concerned that we may not now have the coach who can lift the program higher yet. I hope we do. But Whitman shares these concerns as well, I'd imagine.