Coaching Carousel (Basketball)

[Oracle21]

This lacks some serious context. Weber's favorable win/loss was padded in his first 3 seasons (especially the +35 wins in 2004-2005 season), based off of largely Self's recruits. Once his recruits cycled through, his record was very meh.

Underwood tore the roster completely down, and his first couple seasons were a disaster before Ayo and Kofi.

To be clear, I am concerned about the trajectory of the team, but the program is more stable now than when Weber and Groce left. I don't personally believe Brad is the guy to get us to the next level, but he deserves a chance to clean up his staff and continue on (unless his stubbornness persists).

I don’t think there’s any stability in this program. We’ve switched out our roster every year.

Underwood has been here 8 years. How many freshmen has he recruited and watched them graduate in 4 years? 1 player….Coleman Hawkins. He’s recruited 1 player in 8 years that has played 4 years (he inherited DW/TF). And that’s a stable program?

I was listening to Werner and Piper. They said the culture is gone. You can’t have a culture of a new roster every year. Just can’t. So nothing sustainable has been built here. Illini boards are reading very similar to Kentucky boards during Cal’s last few years there. Swapping out rosters with little team success….no matter if you put guys in the league or have great talent…in the end it’s underachieving.

 

[Heisenbobble]

Example to help. If he went from first round exit. Then two second round exits. Then a first round loss but then his first Elite Eight that would resemble an upward trend. Even a first round loss this year and then A final four next year would still be an upward trend. Again, almost all coaches have their crap years. Is the trajectory going upwards? In this case, yes.

 

[schnaurt]

Bruce Weber got to an Elite 8 at Kansas State and they still fired him.

Frank Martin took South Carolina to a Final 4. They still fired him.

Calipari was ran out of Kentucky bc he didn’t get enough out of the talent hired.

I think in the past, where it took years to build a program that you had to be patient with coaches. But now with NIL and portal free agency, college sports is like pro sports. Firing coaches should not be a difficult decision.

Juwan Howard had an Elite 8, and a Sweet 16. Michigan still fired him and Dusty May put them right back to contending.

I don’t think you need to wait for one terrible season to fire a guy. If you see an upgrade, go do it

Agree. If you know it is a bonafide upgrade and there unfortunately are not too many of them. If the perfect situation presents itself then yes, you make the move. I just dont see that happening. In that case, moving forward with Brad is the better option. Last year all on this board were calling what Brad had accomplished, the greatest coaching stretch for the Illini other than Henson and the short time of Self (excluding the deep past). To completely 180 over 2 months just doesn’t make sense.

 

[Illini2010-11]

Example to help. If he went from first round exit. Then two second round exits. Then a first round loss but then his first Elite Eight that would resemble an upward trend. Even a first round loss this year and then A final four next year would still be an upward trend. Again, almost all coaches have their crap years. Is the trajectory going upwards? In this case, yes.

Most statisticians would argue that last season was more of an outlier than an upward trend (when looking at end of season results). What we are really seeing is a flat line of first weekend exit tourney results with an outlier last season (especially if we regress back to the baseline this season).

 

[schnaurt]

Most statisticians would argue that last season was more of an outlier than an upward trend (when looking at end of season results). What we are really seeing is a flat line of first weekend exit tourney results with an outlier last season (especially if we regress back to the baseline this season).

I can dig that. Still think the man deserves a shot to see if the next outlier can be a natty. If the peak keeps getting higher over time, I can stay tuned.

 

[Jules Winnfield]

Why compare him to the best coach of the last 15 years in college bball. Ridiculous to think Brad couldn’t get to a final four. Just went to an elite eight last year. You see that as peaked but all of his coaching history suggests he is still on an upward trend. There are always some lows on the way up. The key is, can you hold off selling to see the reward.

Because we are Illinois and I’m tired of mediocrity and being content with just making the tournament or just making a Bowl game . Your attitude is why Illinois doesn’t have a national championship. It’s time to take a crap or get off the potty. I want to see Illinois win a National Championship before I leave this earth. I love the NIL era because now it’s about accountability. No more coaches resting on their laurels. Hey be satisfied because we made the NCAA Tournament or bowl game now I as the Head Basketball or Football Coach get to be mediocre and hold on to my job for 20 years. NO MORE Mediocrity. National Championship or BUST. To Quote Apollo Creed In Rocky 3 “THERE IS NO TOMORROW”

 

[Oracle21]

Most statisticians would argue that last season was more of an outlier than an upward trend (when looking at end of season results). What we are really seeing is a flat line of first weekend exit tourney results with an outlier last season (especially if we regress back to the baseline this season).

Or more specifically the outlier of 2 generational talents.

Underwood was a loser at Illinois till Kofi arrived. Kofi’s don’t grow on trees. He’s a 1 in 30 year player.

TSJ’s 2023-24 was also generational. He was on the team in 22-23 and they weren’t very good. 1 player having an All Time year.

If you can only get good coaching results when you have generational talent, then you got the wrong guy. Bc we have not generational, but good talent this year, and the team isn’t good

 

[BashCtIllini]

Here's where the fundamental disagreement is. Wins means everything. It's always a matter of wanting more. If you're in the sweet 16 every year but lose, then you're labeled as not being able to win the big game because you can't get to a final four.

Purdue is crushing Painter right now. They're always underachieving in the Tournament(lost to a 16 seed two years ago), went to the title game last year and now.....they've lost four in a row and he's a bad coach again. They lose the NPOY....doesn't matter. We lose TJ and play four freshmen.... doesn't matter.

If Brad did ever leave, 90% of this board would melt down because NOTHING is a guarantee. BU has gotten our program where anything below a sweet 16 is unacceptable.

He did his job.

I feel like you're not taking into account that the game has changed. I think Underwood is a strong recruiter. He has shown the ability to land good recruiting assistants to keep our roster strong. That allowed him to rebuild the program. However, the big change is now, recruiting is less important because you can just pay the players. Being a strong recruiter still helps for sure, but now that you can let some other team identify talent, and you just pay to steal them away, it's different game.

Now, you see the guys that are strong with Xs and Os, at schools with money to buy players rising to the top. I personally don't think Underwood is a top 15 Xs and Os guy, probably not top 25. So that leaves 2 options. We bring in an assistant that is a tactician or 2, or we bring in an all new staff and a coach that is better with the Xs and Os. That's all it boils down to for me.

People are talking about only returning 3 or 4 players. We'll need to replace our lead scorer. History shows us that hasn't worked out well. So if there are no changes to the staff, are we just kicking the can down the road a year?

 

[BretMyBeachHouse]

Example to help. If he went from first round exit. Then two second round exits. Then a first round loss but then his first Elite Eight that would resemble an upward trend. Even a first round loss this year and then A final four next year would still be an upward trend. Again, almost all coaches have their crap years. Is the trajectory going upwards? In this case, yes.

Yes, if he hypothetically takes us to the final four that will be an upward trend. But we're talking about reality.

As I said I measure by our ranking at season's end. He was ranked in 20,21,22. Not in 23. Then in 24. Not likely this year.

That's not an upward trajectory to me.

 

[schnaurt]

Because we are Illinois and I’m tired of mediocrity and being content with just making the tournament or just making a Bowl game . Your attitude is why Illinois doesn’t have a national championship. It’s time to take a crap or get off the potty. I want to see Illinois win a National Championship before I leave this earth. I love the NIL era because now it’s about accountability. No more coaches resting on their laurels. Hey be satisfied because we made the NCAA Tournament or bowl game now I as the Head Basketball or Football Coach get to be mediocre and hold on to my job for 20 years. NO MORE Mediocrity. National Championship or BUST. To Quote Apollo Creed In Rocky 3 “THERE IS NO TOMORROW”View attachment 40026

With this line of thinking you would have fired Jay Wright at Villanova before he had his first final four and multiple championships.

 

[Poe's Law]

Most statisticians would argue that last season was more of an outlier than an upward trend (when looking at end of season results). What we are really seeing is a flat line of first weekend exit tourney results with an outlier last season (especially if we regress back to the baseline this season).

I’d ignore any statistician that attempted to make that kind of argument with four data points.

Last years sweet 16 path was lucky. If we hadn’t beat a good Iowa St team, I’m feeling completely different today. If we don’t land in UCONN (and maybe Purdue) region, I think there’s a real chance we’re coming off a final four and everybody’s way more understanding about the difficulties of reloading.

If Brad’s proven anything over the years it’s he’s adaptable. He may not right the ship and “save” the season by making a sweet 16, but he’s still a darn good coach and there’s a reason other teams have been reaching out to his agent.

 

[the juiceman cometh]

Bruce Weber got to an Elite 8 at Kansas State and they still fired him.

Yes, four entire seasons later, the last 3 of which he went 34-58 and failed to make the tourney.

Frank Martin took South Carolina to a Final 4. They still fired him.

Five seasons later, after missing the tourney all five of them.

Calipari was ran out of Kentucky bc he didn’t get enough out of the talent hired.

After failing to make the second weekend 4 straight years, including one in which they missed the tourney altogether, and two in which they lost in the first round to 15 seed St. Peters and 13 seed Oakland.

Juwan Howard had an Elite 8, and a Sweet 16. Michigan still fired him and Dusty May put them right back to contending.

After 2 seasons of missing the tourney altogether, the last of which was an 8-win dumpster fire, and also physically assaulting an opposing coach.

I don’t think you need to wait for one terrible season to fire a guy. If you see an upgrade, go do it

None of your examples demonstrate this.

 

[Zorak]

This infers Brad is losing interest in being at Illinois?

Implies, not infers

 

[RabidDawgClassic]

Because we are Illinois and I’m tired of mediocrity and being content with just making the tournament or just making a Bowl game . Your attitude is why Illinois doesn’t have a national championship. It’s time to take a crap or get off the potty. I want to see Illinois win a National Championship before I leave this earth. I love the NIL era because now it’s about accountability. No more coaches resting on their laurels. Hey be satisfied because we made the NCAA Tournament or bowl game now I as the Head Basketball or Football Coach get to be mediocre and hold on to my job for 20 years. NO MORE Mediocrity. National Championship or BUST. To Quote Apollo Creed In Rocky 3 “THERE IS NO TOMORROW”View attachment 40026

Good lord. Illinois had better win that national title soon because you’re likely headed toward an early heart attack.

 

[lstewart53x3]

Genuinely surprised by the sheer amount vitriol thrown at Brad in this thread.

What do each of these coaches have in common:

Mick Cronin
Shaka Smart
Scott Drew
Dana Altman
Greg McDermott
Dan Hurley
John Calipari
Porter Moser
Sean Miller
Eric Musselman

They each coach a team currently ranked lower than Brad’s Illini in KenPom.

 

[Zorak]

Genuinely surprised by the sheer amount vitriol thrown at Brad in this thread.

The worst loss in program history will do that.

 

[Illini2010-11]

I’d ignore any statistician that attempted to that kind of argument with four data points.

Last years sweet 16 path was lucky. If we hadn’t beat a good Iowa St team, I’m feeling completely different today. If we don’t land in UCONN (and maybe Purdue) region, I think there’s a real chance we’re coming off a final four and everybody’s way more understanding about the difficulties of reloading.

If Brad’s proven anything over the years it’s he’s adaptable. He may not right the ship and “save” the season by making a sweet 16, but he’s still a darn good coach and there’s a reason other teams have been reaching out to his agent.

In the same way that you can't make any real argument that we are truly trending upward because of last years results, which is what the OP stated. If we fall back to a first weekend exit this year (assumption based on how bad the team has looked this month), that is 4 times in the last 5 years of not making it out of the first weekend. You would be hard pressed finding anybody saying we are trending up.

Brad has had a lot of success here, but as of now, NCAAT success is not one of them. For better or worse, Coach B is getting paid a lot of money to only make the second weekend one time in 8 seasons. Now, if the team turns it around in the next 2-3 weeks, I will gladly eat crow.

 

[Jules Winnfield]

Good lord. Illinois had better win that national title soon because you’re likely headed toward an early heart attack.

Illinois basketball has won everything but a National Championship it’s not far fetched. We came close in 2005 . We as a fan base have to stop accepting mediocrity. Illinois can win a National Championship with the right coach. It’s the NIL era . We have the money the facilities now all we need is the right coach

 

[lstewart53x3]

The worst loss in program history will do that.

And even with that loss (that I’m upset about too, we all are), this is still the second best team in the 12 years before Brad.

 

[Jules Winnfield]

Genuinely surprised by the sheer amount vitriol thrown at Brad in this thread.

What do each of these coaches have in common:

Mick Cronin
Shaka Smart
Scott Drew
Dana Altman
Greg McDermott
Dan Hurley
John Calipari
Porter Moser
Sean Miller
Eric Musselman

They each coach a team currently ranked lower than Brad’s Illini in KenPom.

They all have a better NCAA tournament record than Brad Underwood. Dan Hurley , Scott Drew and John Calipari have National Championships. Eric Musselman has Beats Brad on a regular basis. Porter Moser beat Brad with a Loyola team when Illinois was a number 1 seed with NBA players . Shaka Smart, Sean Miller , Greg McDermott, Mick Cronin, Dan Hurley , Dana Altman, Scott Drew all excellent Xs and Os coaches with a system. I would take every one of these coaches over Brad Underwood. With NIL all these coaches would be better than Brad Underwood

 

[the juiceman cometh]

Illinois basketball has won everything but a National Championship it’s not far fetched. We came close in 2005 . We as a fan base have to stop accepting mediocrity. Illinois can win a National Championship with the right coach. It’s the NIL era . We have the money the facilities now all we need is the right coach

There are 364 Division I basketball teams, but

 

[rmlsr]

Genuinely surprised by the sheer amount vitriol thrown at Brad in this thread.

What do each of these coaches have in common:

Mick Cronin
Shaka Smart
Scott Drew
Dana Altman
Greg McDermott
Dan Hurley
John Calipari
Porter Moser
Sean Miller
Eric Musselman

They each coach a team currently ranked lower than Brad’s Illini in KenPom.

How many of those coaches are getting paid as a top 10 coach? How many of those have better facilities than Illinois?(some but definitely not all). How many are spending as much money in NIL? (Again some but definitely not all)

 

[lstewart53x3]

They all have a better NCAA tournament record than Brad Underwood. Dan Hurley , Scott Drew and John Calipari have National Championships. Eric Musselman has Beats Brad on a regular basis. Porter Moser beat Brad with a Loyola team when Illinois was a number 1 seed with NBA players . Shaka Smart, Sean Miller , Greg McDermott, Mick Cronin, Dan Hurley , Dana Altman, Scott Drew all excellent Xs and Os coaches with a system. I would take every one of these coaches over Brad Underwood. With NIL all these coaches would be better than Brad Underwood

The point of my post was simple:

Even good, highly accomplished coaches, have bad seasons.

 

[sacraig]

Genuinely surprised by the sheer amount vitriol thrown at Brad in this thread.

What do each of these coaches have in common:

Mick Cronin
Shaka Smart
Scott Drew
Dana Altman
Greg McDermott
Dan Hurley
John Calipari
Porter Moser
Sean Miller
Eric Musselman

They each coach a team currently ranked lower than Brad’s Illini in KenPom.

...he said, which including multiple Natties worth of coaching.

Look, everyone has down years, I get it. But the difference is that many of the people (not all) on that list have had more sustained high-level success over at least some periods than Brad.

Maybe Brad can get us there. I hope he can, because that's preferable to another search. But he's going to have to get a better staff and stop being obstinate about in-game adjustments to get there.

 

[sacraig]

The worst loss in program history will do that.

I think that was more icing on the trend than the direct cause. It was the straw that broke the camel's brain... err...