How quickly the definition of bad season changes.
Coaching Carousel (Basketball)
- Status
How quickly the definition of bad season changes.
Illini2010-11
- Sugar Grove
This tends to happen when the team has a plethora of resources that other programs would kill for, and you have a top 10 paid head coach. The expectations have risen considerably, as they should. It ultimately comes down to what the big donors define as a bad season. I would assume they would classify two of the last 3 seasons in that bucket.
It is good to say that two of the last 3 seasons are "bad seasons". It means that the program is back to relevancy.
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OrangeBlue98
Iowa is not in a great spot right now (LvilleILL1)
- Des Moines, IA
We lost in the regional final/Elite 8. We defeated Iowa State in the regional semifinal/Sweet 16.
None of that matters. All that says is Illinois had a terrible athletic director before Whitman. This is Whitman's department now. Times have changed.
Similar in some respects....with talent they could both consistently win during the regular season, but struggled in the postseason and are clearly a step below the elite level.
Different in that Lou could be competitive with poor or below average talent. His teams rarely got blown out and even at the start of his tenure they hovered around the .500 mark and could give more talented teams a struggle. Brad, as evidenced by his first two years here, not so much. While not in the caliber of a Knight or Keady, Lou was much better at coaching the game than Brad
BU is his own worst enemy
As it should. Putting it way too simply, Josh's job is to do a risk assessment. He could choose to try to upgrade while the stock is still fairly high or wait until there's more signs of a decline. Either one has a risk. I'm still in favor of holding on to Brad since I think he has enough common sense and support around him to make the necessary changes. I won't be devastated if he moves on though.
Noblesville Illini
- Nappanee, IN
However, we are on a tipping point in the program.
GrayGhost77
- Centennial, CO
If you consider getting a 7 seed in the tournament a "bad" season, I suppose. Oh how our standards have changed.
Agree wholeheartedly on our draw last year being both lucky (easy path to S16) and unlucky (in historically dominant UConn’s bracket).
And for those that want to chalk up last year’s run to a lucky draw, I don’t think you can do that without discounting Brad’s prior 2 early exits due to unlucky draws.
Been covered ad nauseum but Loyola was criminally underseeded. If they were a 4 or 5 seed and we lost to them in the S16 (notwithstanding with a week plus to prepare plus more time for Ayo to heal/get right we may have won) I think we are having a different conversation about tourney success.
And likewise the following year for Houston, who finished second (!!!) in KenPom but somehow drew a 5 seed (pull up KenPom for that year. It’s remarkable. It’s Houston, a 5, surrounded by 4 one seeds). They made it to the elite 8 and shot 1-20 from 3, when 4-20 would have gotten them to the F4.
And for saying Brad’s success is only because of a couple of generational talents, what would Painter’s record look like the last 5 ish years if he hadn’t had Edey and now Smith? Those are lower rated guys that Painter probably deserves more credit for finding, but based on ratings Ayo, Kofi and TJ were also unlikely to develop into AA’s.
All of which is to say I like Brad. He’s done great. He’s had some good luck and bad. Great tactical decisions (putting Ayo and Kofi in ball screens, switching to Booty ball last year), and some mistakes (overly reliant on 3 pt shot and relatively inflexible on defense this year). This last month has been rough and I do think lack of coaching chops/adjustments from the staff is a part of it, along with the injuries/illnesses.
If Brad truly is as sore of a loser as he says he is he will make changes this off season. He’s shown a willingness to change before. I think if we can keep most of the core of Tomi/Morez/Kylan/Tre/DGL together and add the right impact transfers/Euros, we could have a much better year next year. Easy to forget TJ was up and down his first year and didn’t really settle in until year 2.
But if Brad wants to move on, I think we have the resources to get a good coach and good players. So I think we will be fine no matter what.
Let’s beat Iowa, lock up a tourney bid, get healthy and see what happens. The flip side of being so reliant on 3’s is the variance goes both ways. If we find our shot we can beat just about anybody.
Big donors might force a change. Doesn’t make them right or rational.
ChiefGritty
- Chicago, IL
I totally relate to being haunted by the Loyola game, I too still think about it all the time and now that the Cubs have won it all and put the Bartman thing to bed that's probably the most painful loss of my entire life.
But you guys are letting that lead you into some deeply unsound thinking.
But you guys are letting that lead you into some deeply unsound thinking.
rmlsr
- El Paso,IL
If you watched that season and said yeah we had a good season then wow. At the end of that season it was becoming a joke and a train wreck if you think back.
If K-state were to let go of Tang, wouldn't imagine they'd have too many guys ahead of Brad.
rmlsr
- El Paso,IL
I would think that Brad would be there main target cuz if I remember correctly they have had serious interest in him before.
A bad season at Illinois can reasonably and objectively be defined as getting an NCAA tournament seed worse than #7.
This is our median seed since seeding began and accounts for seasons where we missed the tournament.
But if you take out the Groce and sanction years, then the median is a 5 seed.
illini55
- The Villages, FL
If KJ, Kofi, TSJ, Tomi, Will, and Ayo are generational talents, I fear for the next 60 years when we will have used up 6 of our "generational" talents. Wow, I am SHOCKED at the hyperbole on Loyalty this week. I erroneously thought a generation lasted longer than 2-3 years. Color me embarrassed.
OrangeBlue98
Iowa is not in a great spot right now (LvilleILL1)
- Des Moines, IA
To be fair, "generational talent" has quickly become another one of those completely overused phrases to the point of being cliche.
It's not just in sports, either. For example, I've seen more than one person call Noah Kahan a "generational talent". I think he's great, and he's one of the few singers that is a favorite of both my teenage son and myself. But I don't think he's a "generational talent".
If you need help to identify that talent level I recommend you check the rafters
I made a post earlier this week stating something similar to what you’re saying … There are quite a few coaches who have no interest coming here because of that reason …
They saw Hamer running the defense instead of Chester …
They see Brad only talking to Tyler during games and letting him run the offense …
And they hear the main reasons why TA left …
Makes it a lot less attractive …
I am so glad we are in a state of our program where a bad season is 6+ Q1 wins and squarely in the tournament (as of now) or making it as a 9 seed with players leaving and lots of turmoil. We would have sold our soul for this 7 years ago, much less an E8 showing and a 1 seed.
My issue right now is that Brad thought our staff was good enough to just move three guys up from lower positions. That's a really bad look when one is your son who hasn't really earned it. I know our offense was great last year, but you had TJ, Domask, a bunch of veterans, and help from Jay Wright. Prove it without them before I believe.
The Loyola loss bothers me more as time goes on because that looks like it was "The Year". You only get so many of those. We thought we'd be there almost every year, so it was easier to forgive. I don't want Brad fired, and it would be stupid to do so. He gets another year with staff upgrades and hopefully an older roster.
The only scenario where you jump is where all your top options are taking a new job and won't be available after next year due to buyouts or whatever and you don't want to lose the game or musical chairs with all the high profile openings that look like could be coming this year. Even then, I think this is our floor with Brad and hopefully he has been humbled enough to grow from this season. It's been rough, but I've spent half my adult life waiting on the bubble updates and hoping for mediocre Illinois basketball.
I think there is a lot of truth in this statement …
Brad would be their target …
ChiefGritty
- Chicago, IL
We shouldn't get wrapped around the axle on the difference between "talent" and "impact player".
Ayo, Kofi and TSJ were all All-Americans, players who completely dominated college basketball.
Between the incoming player classes of 2004 to 2017, the entirety of two coaching administrations, we didn't bring in a single player with anything close to that kind of impact. (I think the only All-B1G First Team selection in that span was Demetri McCamey, correct me if I'm wrong. Hill, Paul and Leonard were not)
KJ and Riley have future upside as true stars in the NBA, they could end up among the most famous basketball players on earth, but it's very rare for freshman to have that kind of impact in college, especially during this era.
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