Coaching Carousel (Basketball)

[IllinitripleJ]

Generational doesn't mean that he was good relative to other players that have ever played at Illinois. It means that of an entire generation (or usually a long timeframe), you are a unique 1 of 1. Zion, Kevin Durant, and Anthony Davis are probably the only generational players who have come through CBB in the last 25 years.

With your logic, if Morez transferred down to like Illinois State and dominated the MVC, he would somehow be a generational player because most ISU fans would've never seen a player like that play for them.

Derek Rose was a generational talent. From the 2007-2008 to the 2011-2012 season he was arguably the second best player in the world, just behind a young LeBron. And if LeBron stayed in Cleveland (rather than moving to a loaded Heat team) maybe Derek Rose would have been the best before his injury.

 

[FromTheLogo]

Maybe Brad has CoHawk-itis???

Just wants to go to K-State for a bag!

Plus, it's "home" for him.

 

[Chiieeff]

How many Big Ten Championships(Tournament or Season) did we have from 2007 - Brad. How many with Brad at the helm?

How many NCAA Tournaments did we make from 2007 to Brad? How many under Brad?

How many top 4 NCAA Tournament seeds from 2007 to Brad? How many since Brad has been here?

Feel free to add or not add the COVID year.

The last three games have been good awful, but to say results haven't been good is ridiculous. To act like it's a guarantee that we can just plug and play another coach, which will even remotely come close to Brad's success.....is also ridiculous.

The grass is always greener......

Thank you for being a voice of reason. Expectations should be high, but folks are very quickly forgetting the depths that this program was in just a few short years ago. They terribly misevaluated this team, which is highlighted significantly by the times we are in, the transfer portal era.... Good news! In the transfer portal era it is much easier to recover and rebound in the next season. The pieces are not clicking for whatever reason, but we are still a tournament team in a DOWN year. The sky is not falling folks, get your $#!%% together.

 

[I-L-L 1318]

UNC extending Hubert Davis until 2030. Shocked.

 

[Huggies5]

Because we are Illinois and I’m tired of mediocrity and being content with just making the tournament or just making a Bowl game . Your attitude is why Illinois doesn’t have a national championship. It’s time to take a crap or get off the potty. I want to see Illinois win a National Championship before I leave this earth. I love the NIL era because now it’s about accountability. No more coaches resting on their laurels. Hey be satisfied because we made the NCAA Tournament or bowl game now I as the Head Basketball or Football Coach get to be mediocre and hold on to my job for 20 years. NO MORE Mediocrity. National Championship or BUST. To Quote Apollo Creed In Rocky 3 “THERE IS NO TOMORROW”View attachment 40026

This is all a matter of perspective, but I agree with you. I want to see a National Championship, and I don't think Brad is the guy. This is not a reaction to this year. Most of us here questioned his ability to make adjustments, his excuses and his stubbornness (see Coleman Hawkins's comments about the UConn game).

 

[21ChampaignSt]

I missed where you said you included years where we missed the tournament. I’d push back on the use of median, just because those years where you miss the tournament feel so much worse and a Big Ten team isn’t getting in at less than an 12 seed very often.

I think we all want to see another run like 84-89 or 00-06. I think Brad is capable of building that kind of program, but I’m also acknowledge you have coaches like Tom Crean who get Indiana to the one seed line and can’t sustain that level of success.

If you look at Kenpom (2002-2025) the median is 32.5 and the average is 39.8. Those 2 bad seasons currently stand at 35 and 25.

The last 5 years doesn’t appear to be too far off KU and they’ve got a title in that time frame.

And therein lies the disconnect. Some look at the Kenpom era as our standard level while others look at the full history while others still (like me) tend to look at the full history minus Groce.

Why do I remove Groce? Well, the point of this kind of exercise is to understand what kind of expectations we should have under normal conditions. Groce is an outlier and should be thrown out, IMO.

If you only look at KenPom era, then a person might conclude we're a top 35-40 type of program. If you look at the full history, you would conclude that we're a top 15 - 25 type of program.

 

[Big Jack]

Thank you for being a voice of reason. Expectations should be high, but folks are very quickly forgetting the depths that this program was in just a few short years ago. They terribly misevaluated this team, which is highlighted significantly by the times we are in, the transfer portal era.... Good news! In the transfer portal era it is much easier to recover and rebound in the next season. The pieces are not clicking for whatever reason, but we are still a tournament team in a DOWN year. The sky is not falling folks, get your $#!%% together.

Funny that none of us have seen NCAA pairings sheet yet. We are not a tournament team yet and if we lose out I wouldn't be surprised to see us not be.

 

[Big Jack]

UNC extending Hubert Davis until 2030. Shocked.

That was done before this season so means nothing right now.

 

[Illiniforlife]

Hubbert Davis only makes $2.6 million a year? Would Brad be open to taking a $3 million pay cut?

 

[21ChampaignSt]

And therein lies the disconnect. Some look at the Kenpom era as our standard level while others look at the full history while others still (like me) tend to look at the full history minus Groce.

Why do I remove Groce? Well, the point of this kind of exercise is to understand what kind of expectations we should have under normal conditions. Groce is an outlier and should be thrown out, IMO.

If you only look at KenPom era, then a person might conclude we're a top 35-40 type of program. If you look at the full history, you would conclude that we're a top 15 - 25 type of program.

Another way of slicing the data, courtesy of @BretMyBeachHouse is our final AP ranking.

Final AP ranking mean / median
Overall since 1980: 20 / NR
Minus Groce: 19 / 23.5

The mean is somewhat generous because for simplicity sake, I gave us a rank of 26 on years when we finished unranked. Median is probably the better measure.

BTW after Dee Brown graduated, we never finished a season ranked again until 2020. Wow.

 

[Illini 993]

JMHO, but opinions on a message board have little/no impact on BU's future here. For me, I'm ok with Underwood, with the caveat that he gets rid of Hamer, demotes Tyler to 5th assistant, and brings in 2 ACs with a good X and O record. But then, I'd also want him to allow the ACs to implement changes that might not perfectly align with his personal preferences. If the new strategies work, great; if not, then he insists that they come up with something better.

 

[ChiefGritty]

Weber was a good coach. Recruiting was Weber's downfall...but not sure "connecting with recruits" was the issue. I always felt like he was simply an honest man trying to operate within a dishonest system.

Dude could coach

I wonder if Weber would be remembered a bit differently if they didn't run into Brandon Roy the year after and they had another tourney run.

Bruce was a good X & O's coach (much better than Brad)

Friends don't let friends be Weber apologists you guys.

 

[the juiceman cometh]

Another way of slicing the data, courtesy of @BretMyBeachHouse is our final AP ranking.

Final AP ranking mean / median
Overall since 1980: 20 / NR
Minus Groce: 19 / 23.5

The mean is somewhat generous because for simplicity sake, I gave us a rank of 26 on years when we finished unranked. Median is probably the better measure.

BTW after Dee Brown graduated, we never finished a season ranked again until 2020. Wow.

If we're doing this exercise, perhaps we should note that BU's median is 21, which is better than our minus Groce number.

 

[Poe's Law]

And therein lies the disconnect. Some look at the Kenpom era as our standard level while others look at the full history while others still (like me) tend to look at the full history minus Groce.

Why do I remove Groce? Well, the point of this kind of exercise is to understand what kind of expectations we should have under normal conditions. Groce is an outlier and should be thrown out, IMO.

If you only look at KenPom era, then a person might conclude we're a top 35-40 type of program. If you look at the full history, you would conclude that we're a top 15 - 25 type of program.

i think I agree with everything you’re saying until you get to the conclusion Underwood’s not the guy and isn’t going to take us to that level.

For me I look at who are my top 10 coaches of the last 5 years. Based on results, I’ve got Underwood on that list, but let’s say for a minute I’ve got him at #25. You have three options to get into that top 10:

1: hire a coach from your top 10 list.
2: hire a coach you think could land in the top 10 with resource of Illinois (I’m thinking up and comer, but maybe you have Sean Miller on this list)
3: Let underwood continue to try to push this boulder further up the hill.

For me, I’m taking door #3. Lose out and I’ll be singing a different tune, but door #2 is the siren song that’s sunk hundreds of ships, and given the resources to go after door #1 I don’t even know who I’d target in the NIL era.

Beard is a heck of a coach, but honestly if I’d have a hard time choking that one down. I’d almost rather watch another year of Hammer coaching defense in Hammer Pants.

 

[Illini2010-11]

Beard is a heck of a coach, but honestly if I’d have a hard time choking that one down. I’d almost rather watch another year of Hammer coaching defense in Hammer Pants.

 

[21ChampaignSt]

i think I agree with everything you’re saying until you get to the conclusion Underwood’s not the guy and isn’t going to take us to that level.

Whoa whoa whoa....I never said that. I like Underwood and still think he can take us to a Final Four. I don't know why I keep getting labeled as the guy saying Underwood can't get us to that level.

I mean, I'm not going to lower the bar to make it look like he's doing better than he is. And nor do I need to. His accomplishments speaks for themselves.

He has the program performing almost at the level it was in the early 2000s. I've spent a fair amount of time researching and sharing data with this board that shows this. But tournament success is important to me and I do think BU still has something to prove in that regard which is why I'm not ready to give him a lifetime contract just yet. Nor am I ready to move on from him.

 

[ChiefGritty]

They all have a better NCAA tournament record than Brad Underwood. Dan Hurley , Scott Drew and John Calipari have National Championships. Eric Musselman has Beats Brad on a regular basis. Porter Moser beat Brad with a Loyola team when Illinois was a number 1 seed with NBA players . Shaka Smart, Sean Miller , Greg McDermott, Mick Cronin, Dan Hurley , Dana Altman, Scott Drew all excellent Xs and Os coaches with a system. I would take every one of these coaches over Brad Underwood. With NIL all these coaches would be better than Brad Underwood

Just for fun

Jay Wright made his first Final Four in year 8 at Villanova
Tony Bennett made his first Final Four in year 10 at Virginia
Bo Ryan made his first Final Four in year 13 at Wisconsin
Scott Drew made his first Final Four in year 18 at Baylor
Matt Painter made his first Final Four in year 19 at Purdue

 

[CoalCity]

Just for fun

Jay Wright made his first Final Four in year 8 at Villanova
Tony Bennett made his first Final Four in year 10 at Virginia
Bo Ryan made his first Final Four in year 13 at Wisconsin
Scott Drew made his first Final Four in year 18 at Baylor
Matt Painter made his first Final Four in year 19 at Purdue

All except for Painter before the transfer portal and NIL. You don't need tens of years to turn a team around any more. You can do it in one offseason if you're good at it. B1G Examples: Michigan basketball and Indiana football

Granted we dont know what Michigan is gonna do in the dance, but they're a damn sight better than they have been lately.

 

[ChiefGritty]

All except for Painter before the transfer portal and NIL. You don't need tens of years to turn a team around any more. You can do it in one offseason if you're good at it. B1G Examples: Michigan basketball and Indiana football

But that's not a question of turnarounds or rebuilds, we're talking a decade into those tenures when they were established as successes.

Those are all guys who for one reason or another were thought of as "can't do it in March", until they weren't.

Why do I remove Groce? Well, the point of this kind of exercise is to understand what kind of expectations we should have under normal conditions. Groce is an outlier and should be thrown out, IMO.

"If you assume that it can't go wrong, statistically it's guaranteed not to go wrong!"

 

[RabidDawgClassic]

UNC extending Hubert Davis until 2030. Shocked.

Why, it's almost as if fans on message boards don't know .

 

[Poe's Law]

Whoa whoa whoa....I never said that. I like Underwood and still think he can take us to a Final Four. I don't know why I keep getting labeled as the guy saying Underwood can't get us to that level.

I mean, I'm not going to lower the bar to make it look like he's doing better than he is. And nor do I need to. His accomplishments speaks for themselves.

He has the program performing almost at the level it was in the early 2000s. I've spent a fair amount of time researching and sharing data with this board that shows this. But tournament success is important to me and I do think BU still has something to prove in that regard which is why I'm not ready to give him a lifetime contract just yet. Nor am I ready to move on from him.

Oh then we’re in complete agreement. Sorry I lumped some of your responses in with those who are sitting outside Underwood’s house making the Bielema T-Bar sign hoping Brad takes the hint.

 

[Indy Illini Fan]

Tim Anderson stepped aside on September 20.

Brad knew Tim wasn’t coming back in very early in the off season …

 

[Indy Illini Fan]

Just for fun

Jay Wright made his first Final Four in year 8 at Villanova
Tony Bennett made his first Final Four in year 10 at Virginia
Bo Ryan made his first Final Four in year 13 at Wisconsin
Scott Drew made his first Final Four in year 18 at Baylor
Matt Painter made his first Final Four in year 19 at Purdue

I’d be happy making the 2nd weekend more than once in 8 years …

 

[217sports]

I’d be happy making the 2nd weekend more than once in 8 years …

This is getting old at this point

 

[Bigtex]

The overall collapse was truly epic. It’s hard to look that bad in all phases of the game all in one night.

There was one Illini player on the floor who didn’t quit. If you watched the game you should know who that was. Even when the game was hopelessly out of reach he continued to play with heart.

If that had been the last game of the season... the fallout from that debacle would be earthshaking right now. But the fact that two tournaments still remain leaves room for some redemption.

It’s the ‘not caring’ that seems the most troubling. Except for that one Illini... no one seemed to care about the embarrassment taking place. Where was the fight in these guys? Where was the team Alpha (still missing) to kick some rears to get them to show some life? What was being said in the huddle – and NOT being said that should have?

The best of the Blue Bloods never look like the Illini did on that sad New York City night.

There’s no embarrassment to losing a game. But there’s plenty of that in the way the Illini looked from beginning to end. The Illini looked like a collection of individuals without collective purpose or direction -- all looking for the Exit sign.

And if it’s time for a change... let’s hope a Bulls-style Phil Jackson-program elevating-person is out there somewhere – even if it’s a surprise name that no one is thinking about right now.

Sad but the Illini looked like a 16 seed team and a pattern of recent history....

This season:
Duke beat army by 42
Duke beat Woffard by 51
Duke beat Illinois by 43

Unfortunately, Illinois looked like a 16 seed against Duke
Unfortunately, Illinois looked like a 16 seed against Uconn
Unfortunately, Illinois looked like a 16 seed the last 8+ minutes again Mich St.

Fans are dumb founded that the team could go 0-16 or 2-26 from 3
Fans are dumb founded that the team could be tied at 23-23 and then down 28-23 at half. After half time adjustments (or no adjustments) 53-23 or 25-0 to start 2nd half. I believe 18 straight misses for Illinois
Fans are dumb founded that the team could lead 65-64 and not score in the last 8+ minutes. Missing 19 straight shots and losing 79-65

Bad coaching with no adjustments?
teams were that much better?
Illinois wasn't prepared for the game(s)?
other?

I am ready for a change.