College Sports / Conference Realignment
- Status
Joel Goodson
- how was I to know, she was with the Russians too?
ChiefGritty
- Chicago, IL
I mean this is very clearly the long-term future of the sport, but it's so inevitable that it's not worth anyone's while to bother with the large and costly obstacles to force getting there immediately.
GrayGhost77
- Centennial, CO
When the current (and pretty new) media contracts are up, that's about when it will happen. B1G just locked into theirs beginning with the '23 season so it will be a while. I'd say, oh, about 2030 is when the superleague will happen (right when the current media contract ends).
Just before the next reseating of Memorial Stadium.
Joel Goodson
- how was I to know, she was with the Russians too?
with all due respect, I don't think so
How is this even something to be considered? I don't get it. A super league kills any allegiance to the SEC and the B1G. It's mind-bogglingly short sighted. Oh how I wish I could read a legitimate write-up saying both the SEC and B1G will split into 2 divisions and have a playoff/title game.... maybe even more than 2 divisions. Whats wrong with going 4 divisions of 4,5, or 6 teams and having a playoff based on that and THEN have the CFP's????
ChiefGritty
- Chicago, IL
It will use the dead husks of SEC and B1G branding of course.
None of it means anything anymore anyway.
Joel Goodson
- how was I to know, she was with the Russians too?
the end is near!
That seems like clickbait. When there's a lack of information, speculation and misinformation rule.
I think we all know where things are most likely to head, and it's not about getting rid of the conferences. The issue (sadly) is about dividing up the pie so that the big programs get the biggest share of the money. I'm not saying proportional --if they can use their dominance to secure more than their share, they absolutely will. I'm not seeing a world where the BIG gives up it's top-tier position to join something less. I'm expecting this is all about format for the playoff, and not regular season affiliations. I'd read somewhere that the BIG and SEC will have control over the playoff format starting in 2026, so it's expected the format will be highly favorable to them. The rub is that 2025 gives the others some leverage. In my estimation, that means they really need a good grasp of the numbers and what seeding changes could do for the ratings and revenue. Guessing it will be a tight negotiation given how many parties are involved.
there will eventually be 16 teams that qualify for the CFP
SEC & B1G will each get 5 guaranteed using the play in process on Conf Championship weekend. thats 10 of 16 spots
that leaves 1 each for the AAC & B12 champs and 1 more for G5 and 3 left for at large incl ND
basically , they are saying the 5th best team in the P2 are more worthy than 2nd pl in the B12 and AAC
that said, its very likely the 2nd pl team gets an at large. 3rd pl team in those leagues gets a bag of balls
SEC & B1G will each get 5 guaranteed using the play in process on Conf Championship weekend. thats 10 of 16 spots
that leaves 1 each for the AAC & B12 champs and 1 more for G5 and 3 left for at large incl ND
basically , they are saying the 5th best team in the P2 are more worthy than 2nd pl in the B12 and AAC
that said, its very likely the 2nd pl team gets an at large. 3rd pl team in those leagues gets a bag of balls
mattcoldagelli
- Script Illinois Enthusiast
I have an honest question for people who are hand-wringing about the "death of the non-conference" - why?
Battle89
- Cary-Grove, the better Trojan team
ChiefGritty
- Chicago, IL
Less variety and fewer meaningful games early in the season would be bad, right?
College basketball has gone in the opposite direction and it's great.
mattcoldagelli
- Script Illinois Enthusiast
I'm ambivalent. We're already at a place where the highest-profile matchups are played at neutral sites and kind of blend together, anyway. If we're looking at a choice between more meaningful late season games and more meaningful early season games, I choose the former.
Of course, I found the old "you have to go undefeated or as close as you can to it and hope poll voters pick you" organizing principle of CFB (which spawned tough non-cons to begin with) dumb and bad. Doesn't this put even more importance on conference games? I thought one of the key complaints of CFB doomers around these parts was that we were losing connection to the things that made college football college football, chief among them the primacy of beating your rivals and winning your conference.
ChiefGritty
- Chicago, IL
Sure, but that's already been tossed out a different window.
And good point on the neutral site-ization problem, which is fundamentally about being able to squeeze new ticket revenue out beyond the existing season ticket packages (which inflate in price anyway).
What made college football college football though, first and foremost, was that there were drama and stakes to be found from 11AM to Midnight every single Saturday of the season in every nook and cranny of the country. It was not a single, uniform journey on the path to an ultimate single national champion, it was far more kaleidoscopic and weird than that.
I don't think the public is going to be as interested in a game that abandons that. I think they will lose more in TV ratings and ticket sales and all the rest of it from reducing the sport we've known to just an NFL "regular season" than they will gain from expanding and deepening the playoffs.
Here's why good out of conference matters. It's fun, it's different, it gives us exciting match ups, early in the year.
2019 LSU at Texas, ND at Georgia
2021 Oregon at OSU, Auburn at PSU
2022 FSU LSU (neutral), ND at OSU
2023 Texas at Alabama, Georgia at Oklahoma
2024 Texas at Michigan, Alabama at Wisconsin
That's really just a quick run thru, and all but one of those were on campuses. If you're a college football fan, those are games you kept an eye on, while you were out at the bars w/ the boys, or out to dinner with the wife.
These types of games resulted in early statements and perspective on teams. "ok, those guys are good", or "woah, they've got a lot of work to do". Now with Toledo, Memphis and App State filling these slots, September is just going to become defacto pre-season. No need to come in early from the lake in mid September, to catch Texas vs. Northern Iowatucky.
I absolutely understand that with conference expansion these types of games now either pop up in conference play or in early rounds of the playoff. It's a zero sum shift, from September to December in that regard. It's just the reality of where things are headed.
2019 LSU at Texas, ND at Georgia
2021 Oregon at OSU, Auburn at PSU
2022 FSU LSU (neutral), ND at OSU
2023 Texas at Alabama, Georgia at Oklahoma
2024 Texas at Michigan, Alabama at Wisconsin
That's really just a quick run thru, and all but one of those were on campuses. If you're a college football fan, those are games you kept an eye on, while you were out at the bars w/ the boys, or out to dinner with the wife.
These types of games resulted in early statements and perspective on teams. "ok, those guys are good", or "woah, they've got a lot of work to do". Now with Toledo, Memphis and App State filling these slots, September is just going to become defacto pre-season. No need to come in early from the lake in mid September, to catch Texas vs. Northern Iowatucky.
I absolutely understand that with conference expansion these types of games now either pop up in conference play or in early rounds of the playoff. It's a zero sum shift, from September to December in that regard. It's just the reality of where things are headed.
Has it? If the non-conference games lose their importance, and the conference games lose their importance, then what are the games you have to win to make the CFP?
I get the argument that ESPN focusing on and framing everything in the context of the CFP is supposed to de-value football programs that do not compete in a major conference that regularly feeds into the CFP. But let's be honest here, in the pre CFP era was ESPN hyping the race for the Mountain West title? Prior to BCS was there a lot of air time given to who was going to win the MAC? The national drama and stakes coverage was always reserved for the top of the heap, and the regional and local coverage for smaller programs can still be found. According to this site, many of the fastest growers in attendance over the last 5-years play in conferences like the Mountain West, C-USA, and Sunbelt.
FWIW, college football attendance had been in a state of consistent decline until 2022, when it finally ticked up a bit, and then ticked up just a slight bit more in 2023. Not really a state of increase, closer to an arresting of the decline, which is still movement in a positive direction.
College football attendance sees increase in consecutive seasons for first time since 2008
College football in 2023 enjoyed its highest average attendance since the 2017 season
www.cbssports.com
mattcoldagelli
- Script Illinois Enthusiast
I think we are both veterans of the Guenther Wars, where I (and, I'm assuming, you) made the argument annually that it was not very smart or good for us to be doing things like playing Missouri in STL or committing to home-and-homes against Southern Miss. Did we have that stance because we were a bad football team and needed to get our own house in order before having a schedule-strength flex in our back pocket? That's certainly a part of it. But for me it was because it represented a collective taking-our-eye-off-the-ball of the "mission" for Illinois football, which is to win Big Ten football games. Treating the non-conference like a preseason helped us do that because it allowed for more players to get lower-risk playing time and increased our chance of making a bowl, which allowed us more practices, program continuity, and the visibility boost we needed to climb the rungs of the conference ladder.
The sport has gone through quite a bit of changes since then, and in the 4-team CFP era (and maybe the expanded one, hard to judge with a sample size of 1), you'd maybe have me on an argument that you need to take a college basketball-like approach and have an eye towards an end-of-season seed/resume. But this would put things squarely back in the "win conference games, the rest will take care of itself" bucket. Which is good! The conferences are the lifeblood of that weird kaleidoscope you are referencing. I thought there would be more energy for that among the traditionalists who bemoaned the weakening/loss of "the real conferences" through expansion/realignment.
Realized I forgot to include my link:
2024 FBS Attendance Trends | College Athletics News | D1 ticker
Data through Week 14. * indicates school's stadium is under renovation and capacity is not the same as 2023
www.d1ticker.com
ChiefGritty
- Chicago, IL
This is all fair, a couple thoughts in response.
1. What's best for Illinois or any individual team and what's best for the sport as a whole are different things. Illinois absolutely should have done Glen Mason Free Bowl Game scheduling when that was an available option. The fact that if *everybody* did that it would turn the entire September TV slate into garbage is not Illinois' problem, but that is college football's problem, and conference schedule expansion, banning FCS games, and the sheer inflation in buy game fees have chewed away at that scheduling model in a way that ultimately benefits the game as a whole even if it robs a One Weird Trick for doormat programs.
2. A slight distinction but I think an important one, the mission for Illinois football (and basketball and all sports really) is to be better than Iowa and Wisconsin and Northwestern and Purdue and Indiana in the never-ending battle of the competitive pecking order of those sports. And to put up a fight against Michigan and Ohio State, and to attain some sort of national relevance, there are lots of concentric layers to it, kaleidoscope as I said, but fundamentally it's about climbing that ladder and seeing your ancient enemies below you. And that goes beyond just those specific games, it's recruiting, it's your overall record, bowl games, what merchandise is available at the Mag Mile Niketown, it's a full-spectrum thing. Pro sports have one-on-one rivalries like that, but complex, unequal, forced-parity-won't-save-you regional ecosystems like that were unique to college.
Were. The Big Ten no longer exists. I don't care about Maryland, I don't care about Washington, I don't care about a 3 vs 6 game for a CFP bid to be cannon fodder for Georgia, this is meaningless garbage and I hate it. And I talk to enough college football fans IRL to know I'm not alone.
3. The actual proposal here, all of a conference's pre-set CFP bids being determined by Championship Weekend play-ins seeded based on conference record, doesn't weaken or devalue the non-conference. It makes non-conference games formally, structurally meaningless. Literal pre-season. Which is just a mistake, a reflection of a totally haphazard, slapdash plan that they've barely even considered.
And that's the core of it. There was a lot of organic demand for a 4-team playoff for many years. It didn't come from me, I thought it was unwise then and now, but a lot of true college football diehards disagreed, so it goes. Everything that has happened since, both in postseason and conference carousel terms is blind, thoughtless pillage of the sport's riches and legacy by ignorant vandals with the momentary leverage to do so, with not a single thought for the value of the sport and with seething contempt for its fans and its history. It is disgusting white collar crime, nothing more, and by this late date I am running out of patience with the perspective of "hey man, money talks, gotta make way for the new wave". The whole thing is the work of like 10 suits who should be public pariahs getting rotten fruit thrown at them on the street.
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