Chicago Cubs 2025

[EyeoftheIllini]

Seeing Gallen's regression has me hesitant for the Cubs to make a move on him. Depth in the rotation is absolutely needed, with Hoyer et al. needing to make some moves, but the upside isn't there for me on Gallen as a rental.

I have Gallen on my fantasy team, and he’s been so bad of late I didn’t start him this week even though he has two starts (we set weekly lineup on Monday). His big issue has been control. He has 32 walks in 66 innings. Last year he had 54 in 148 innings and that was a much higher rate than the previous two seasons. In 7 of his 12 starts, he’s had 3 or more and only has one game with less than 2. That was his 13 strikeout game against Yankees in second start of season.

If Cubs think they see an issue with his delivery that they can correct, he’d probably be worth the gamble because I think his stuff is still good and might not cost too much as he’s an UFA after this year. If only costs a mid-level prospect or two then I’d be happy with the pickup, but right now certainly not looking like a sure thing.

 

[Gary J]

Taillon has been superb. He’s efficient going into the 7th inning frequently to save the pen. He’s a legit two at this point and he may be the staff ace if Shota is not the same coming back from the injury.

 

[IanKEvans2]

Taillon has been superb. He’s efficient going into the 7th inning frequently to save the pen. He’s a legit two at this point and he may be the staff ace if Shota is not the same coming back from the injury.

Related, I'm curious if Counsel keeps an opener in front of Ben Brown moving forward. Seemed to take some of the starting pitcher pressure off the kid.

 

[GoodePodzMelendez]

Quick Prediction at the ONE-THIRD OF SEASON NOW COMPLETE mark:

96-66 Solid as the #2 seed in NL (BTW, identical to the record of the 1984 Eastern Division Champs). Zack Gallen has a solid final 2 months of the season and slides in as our #2 starter behind S. Imanaga.

Why do we need to trade for a starter? At least not yet. Imanaga will be back in a few weeks, Taillon is eating innings and having quality starts. Horton and possibly Brown are getting their bearings now and Boyd is a quality 5th guy. You do not make a trade just to make a trade unless we are getting a guy who has at least a year or two left on their contract. We do not need a rental. If you want reality, getting Imanaga back is like getting an ace without losing a prospect. Stand pat unless we have an injury or a serious need. Right now we have no need to fill.

 

[GoodePodzMelendez]

Taillon has been superb. He’s efficient going into the 7th inning frequently to save the pen. He’s a legit two at this point and he may be the staff ace if Shota is not the same coming back from the injury.

He is eating innings like Jake did in 2016.

 

[DeonThomas]

Seeing Gallen's regression has me hesitant for the Cubs to make a move on him. Depth in the rotation is absolutely needed, with Hoyer et al. needing to make some moves, but the upside isn't there for me on Gallen as a rental.

Whether Gallen or someone else, I expect a semi-big splash (a solid B type of guy) at starting pitcher.

Looking back in time, Sutcliffe was probably a "C-" guy who emerged as an "A+". Ditto for Arrieta. Quintana was a bigger name at the time of his deal, but sorta fizzled once playing at Wrigley.

Chapman was an A+ who played like an A+ (but he was a bullpen guy).

 

[DeonThomas]

Related, I'm curious if Counsel keeps an opener in front of Ben Brown moving forward. Seemed to take some of the starting pitcher pressure off the kid.

I predict he will ---- as long as the superlative results continue.

 

[champaignchris]

Related, I'm curious if Counsel keeps an opener in front of Ben Brown moving forward. Seemed to take some of the starting pitcher pressure off the kid.

I think they’re going to transition Brown to short relief when Shota comes back. He’s already exceeded his innings total from last year and he’s less than 50 innings away from his high as a pro. I can’t imagine they think they’ll get much more than 60-70 more innings out of him this year.

 

[EyeoftheIllini]

Why do we need to trade for a starter? At least not yet. Imanaga will be back in a few weeks, Taillon is eating innings and having quality starts. Horton and possibly Brown are getting their bearings now and Boyd is a quality 5th guy. You do not make a trade just to make a trade unless we are getting a guy who has at least a year or two left on their contract. We do not need a rental. If you want reality, getting Imanaga back is like getting an ace without losing a prospect. Stand pat unless we have an injury or a serious need. Right now we have no need to fill.

Cade Horton’s career high in innings is 88.1. He threw 34.1 last year. He currently sits at 49.1. Brown’s career high in innings is 104, threw 55.1 last year and sits at 56.2. Matthew Boyd sits at 61.1 innings. He’s only exceeded that number twice since 2019 — 78.2 in 2021 and 71 in 2023. Last year he threw 39.2. The Cubs SP depth is Colin Rea, who had a 5.61 ERA in May. One hopes Assad can help when he gets back, but that’s looking like it won’t be until late June.

You say stand pat, we have no need to fill. The season beyond injuries to pitching has gone about as well as one could hope with Tucker being Tucker, PCA having a huge breakout and Suzuki looking like he’ll have career highs in HR and RBI. You don’t risk wasting those kind of years by standing pat when three-fifths of your rotation has real questions about innings pitched and your #1 starter as well as another starter are coming back from injury (the latter not having pitched this year). The need is there unless you’re living in best case scenario land.

You seem worried about giving up a prospect(s), but I don’t think anyone is advocating for trading Moises or any top five prospect to get a SP. And if you’re so opposed to trading a prospect, why advocate for someone beyond a rental who will cost better prospects and more of them? The truth is for a large percentage of prospects the most value they will ever have for their current team is as trade fodder to get major league players. Take a look at Cubs top 30 prospect list from 2019 (chose that year cuz gives 5+ years for a player to progress through system). Amaya, Hoerner and Steele are the only guys that jump off the list as guys who have contributed this year. A few have had a little success in majors, and most no one has heard of.

Cubs Top Prospects

The Official Site of Major League Baseball

www.mlb.com

 

[bdutts]

Most, if not all, team's fans overvalue their team's prospects in every sport...

 

[GoodePodzMelendez]

Cade Horton’s career high in innings is 88.1. He threw 34.1 last year. He currently sits at 49.1. Brown’s career high in innings is 104, threw 55.1 last year and sits at 56.2. Matthew Boyd sits at 61.1 innings. He’s only exceeded that number twice since 2019 — 78.2 in 2021 and 71 in 2023. Last year he threw 39.2. The Cubs SP depth is Colin Rea, who had a 5.61 ERA in May. One hopes Assad can help when he gets back, but that’s looking like it won’t be until late June.

You say stand pat, we have no need to fill. The season beyond injuries to pitching has gone about as well as one could hope with Tucker being Tucker, PCA having a huge breakout and Suzuki looking like he’ll have career highs in HR and RBI. You don’t risk wasting those kind of years by standing pat when three-fifths of your rotation has real questions about innings pitched and your #1 starter as well as another starter are coming back from injury (the latter not having pitched this year). The need is there unless you’re living in best case scenario land.

You seem worried about giving up a prospect(s), but I don’t think anyone is advocating for trading Moises or any top five prospect to get a SP. And if you’re so opposed to trading a prospect, why advocate for someone beyond a rental who will cost better prospects and more of them? The truth is for a large percentage of prospects the most value they will ever have for their current team is as trade fodder to get major league players. Take a look at Cubs top 30 prospect list from 2019 (chose that year cuz gives 5+ years for a player to progress through system). Amaya, Hoerner and Steele are the only guys that jump off the list as guys who have contributed this year. A few have had a little success in majors, and most no one has heard of.

Cubs Top Prospects

The Official Site of Major League Baseball

www.mlb.com

I did preface the point that unless we have an injury or a serious need. We have neither right now. Tucker is D2D. In a way, yes, I do not want to give up prospects unless we are getting a solid player that is not a rental. Rentals are a crap shoot as many do not work out and then you lose them and the prospect. Our farm system is night and day different than in 2019. Amaya was a very young kid that had injuriy issues. People thought at one point that he would not make it, Steele and Hoerner. Theo destroyed the system. I look at teams l,Ike Houston, Atlanta and Cleveland. Why do those teams year in and year out win and make the playoffs? They have a solid farm system, and when a player moves on, they just plug in another. The problem we have here in Chicago is that we are land locked in the OF. We have two of our 4 OFs with no trade clauses. Not a bad thing but it does hinder advancement. We have Kevin Alcantara who is 22 and at AAA and Owen Caissie, also 22 and both are not tearing it up in Iowa. Jonathan Long seems like a guy who could be called up and be a backup 1B and DH but CC loaves what Turner brings to the table. Long will be here next year as a right handed bat to platoon with Busch. Now this leaves Moises Ballestros. What to do with him? He is not a ready foot the bigs catcher. Will he be? Good question. We have both our catchers through next year so what do we do with another 22 year old in AAA that has no immediate place for him to land in Chicago. It’s a gamble as we have talent in AAA and no where to put them. So lets table this for a second and talk about your other point about Horton. Yes, he is a rookie and yes, he is limited on innings as well as Brown. Imanaga will be coming back and if he is back to being our Ace, then we have partly solved an issue. I do need to see more from Brown as he showed me something against a team that beat the living hell out of him a week ago. He added a knuckle curve and straight change that Cincy just could not handle. He was down right nasty. Horton is going tonight against a much improved Washington team. He is not an innings eater by any stretch but he is settling in as our 4/5 guy at the back end of the rotation with Boyd/Rea. If i had to make a trade for a pitcher, especially one with added year(s), Ballestros would have to be the top of the list of players dealt. I would not give up the bank but Ballestros and a couple of mid level guys for a starter. I would not touch the bull pen as everyone has seemed to find their role and its lockdown time after the 6th inning. We still have two months to gage things and anything can happen. I am glad that we have a loaded system so we could make something happen if we had to.

 

[Warren Carter Fanclub]

We need AT LEAST one starter that you feel good about being in the playoff rotation.
I wouldn't rule out a second back of the rotation inning eater to get us to the end of the year either.
Barring injury, every other position's need doesn't even come close to to their need at starter.

 

[champaignchris]

Cade Horton’s career high in innings is 88.1. He threw 34.1 last year. He currently sits at 49.1. Brown’s career high in innings is 104, threw 55.1 last year and sits at 56.2. Matthew Boyd sits at 61.1 innings. He’s only exceeded that number twice since 2019 — 78.2 in 2021 and 71 in 2023. Last year he threw 39.2. The Cubs SP depth is Colin Rea, who had a 5.61 ERA in May. One hopes Assad can help when he gets back, but that’s looking like it won’t be until late June.

You say stand pat, we have no need to fill. The season beyond injuries to pitching has gone about as well as one could hope with Tucker being Tucker, PCA having a huge breakout and Suzuki looking like he’ll have career highs in HR and RBI. You don’t risk wasting those kind of years by standing pat when three-fifths of your rotation has real questions about innings pitched and your #1 starter as well as another starter are coming back from injury (the latter not having pitched this year). The need is there unless you’re living in best case scenario land.

You seem worried about giving up a prospect(s), but I don’t think anyone is advocating for trading Moises or any top five prospect to get a SP. And if you’re so opposed to trading a prospect, why advocate for someone beyond a rental who will cost better prospects and more of them? The truth is for a large percentage of prospects the most value they will ever have for their current team is as trade fodder to get major league players. Take a look at Cubs top 30 prospect list from 2019 (chose that year cuz gives 5+ years for a player to progress through system). Amaya, Hoerner and Steele are the only guys that jump off the list as guys who have contributed this year. A few have had a little success in majors, and most no one has heard of.

Cubs Top Prospects

The Official Site of Major League Baseball

www.mlb.com

All of this.

The Cubs are going to need about 500 more innings from starting pitchers this year. When you start adding up where those innings might come from on the current roster, it becomes clear that they’re going to want to go get someone.

 

[EyeoftheIllini]

I did preface the point that unless we have an injury or a serious need. We have neither right now. Tucker is D2D. In a way, yes, I do not want to give up prospects unless we are getting a solid player that is not a rental. Rentals are a crap shoot as many do not work out and then you lose them and the prospect. Our farm system is night and day different than in 2019. Amaya was a very young kid that had injuriy issues. People thought at one point that he would not make it, Steele and Hoerner. Theo destroyed the system. I look at teams l,Ike Houston, Atlanta and Cleveland. Why do those teams year in and year out win and make the playoffs? They have a solid farm system, and when a player moves on, they just plug in another. The problem we have here in Chicago is that we are land locked in the OF. We have two of our 4 OFs with no trade clauses. Not a bad thing but it does hinder advancement. We have Kevin Alcantara who is 22 and at AAA and Owen Caissie, also 22 and both are not tearing it up in Iowa. Jonathan Long seems like a guy who could be called up and be a backup 1B and DH but CC loaves what Turner brings to the table. Long will be here next year as a right handed bat to platoon with Busch. Now this leaves Moises Ballestros. What to do with him? He is not a ready foot the bigs catcher. Will he be? Good question. We have both our catchers through next year so what do we do with another 22 year old in AAA that has no immediate place for him to land in Chicago. It’s a gamble as we have talent in AAA and no where to put them. So lets table this for a second and talk about your other point about Horton. Yes, he is a rookie and yes, he is limited on innings as well as Brown. Imanaga will be coming back and if he is back to being our Ace, then we have partly solved an issue. I do need to see more from Brown as he showed me something against a team that beat the living hell out of him a week ago. He added a knuckle curve and straight change that Cincy just could not handle. He was down right nasty. Horton is going tonight against a much improved Washington team. He is not an innings eater by any stretch but he is settling in as our 4/5 guy at the back end of the rotation with Boyd/Rea. If i had to make a trade for a pitcher, especially one with added year(s), Ballestros would have to be the top of the list of players dealt. I would not give up the bank but Ballestros and a couple of mid level guys for a starter. I would not touch the bull pen as everyone has seemed to find their role and its lockdown time after the 6th inning. We still have two months to gage things and anything can happen. I am glad that we have a loaded system so we could make something happen if we had to.

You keep saying Cubs have two months to assess things. First, I’m sure they have a plan for Brown and Horton now, and I don’t see the plan being each of them throwing another 80-100 innings apiece this season. So we have a serious need brewing. Second, you wait until that need is fully percolated and Cubs are picking from the garbage heap for SP cuz the good ones have gone to those who know how to use their farm system to improve at the major league level.

You are right that Cubs farm system is in much better shape now than in 2019. But let’s look at the 3 teams you mentioned. From Houston’s top 30 prospects that year, only 3 have contributed much to their success — Tucker, Yordan and Valdez. The best of the rest is probably Myles Straw. For Cleveland we’re looking at the best being Aaron Civale with a few “pieces” like Tristan McKenzie, Nolan Jones, Bo Naylor, Rocchio, Wil Benson and Eric Haase. Alec Bohm and Ranger Saurez were the Phillies best. So out of those 3 teams top 90 prospects, 6 have become good or better players in majors so far.

Yes, trading for a rental is no sure thing, but neither are prospects. And it likely isn’t going to cost the Cubs the guys you mentioned. The Dodgers got Flaherty last year for their number 8 and 22 prospects. For someone with multiple years on contract, it might take one of those you mention plus maybe some mid to low level prospects. We’re not talking about gutting the entire system and mortgaging the entire future. We’re talking about capitalizing on what has so far been a very good season and improving chances for a deep playoff run by making strategic “cuts” to farm system for a trade(s).

 

[Illiniaaron]

Quick Prediction at the ONE-THIRD OF SEASON NOW COMPLETE mark:

96-66 Solid as the #2 seed in NL (BTW, identical to the record of the 1984 Eastern Division Champs). Zack Gallen has a solid final 2 months of the season and slides in as our #2 starter behind S. Imanaga.

Correction, the '84 Cubs finished 96-65. There was a postponed game, I think against Montreal, that wasn't played.

 

[GoodePodzMelendez]

You keep saying Cubs have two months to assess things. First, I’m sure they have a plan for Brown and Horton now, and I don’t see the plan being each of them throwing another 80-100 innings apiece this season. So we have a serious need brewing. Second, you wait until that need is fully percolated and Cubs are picking from the garbage heap for SP cuz the good ones have gone to those who know how to use their farm system to improve at the major league level.

You are right that Cubs farm system is in much better shape now than in 2019. But let’s look at the 3 teams you mentioned. From Houston’s top 30 prospects that year, only 3 have contributed much to their success — Tucker, Yordan and Valdez. The best of the rest is probably Myles Straw. For Cleveland we’re looking at the best being Aaron Civale with a few “pieces” like Tristan McKenzie, Nolan Jones, Bo Naylor, Rocchio, Wil Benson and Eric Haase. Alec Bohm and Ranger Saurez were the Phillies best. So out of those 3 teams top 90 prospects, 6 have become good or better players in majors so far.

Yes, trading for a rental is no sure thing, but neither are prospects. And it likely isn’t going to cost the Cubs the guys you mentioned. The Dodgers got Flaherty last year for their number 8 and 22 prospects. For someone with multiple years on contract, it might take one of those you mention plus maybe some mid to low level prospects. We’re not talking about gutting the entire system and mortgaging the entire future. We’re talking about capitalizing on what has so far been a very good season and improving chances for a deep playoff run by making strategic “cuts” to farm system for a trade(s).

The trade deadline is the end of July but i get your point. We can make a deal if we have to before then. When I brought those three teams up, I was using a 10 year window. All three have been relevant over the past several years and they have success behind them. Houston has finally fallen off a bit as somewhat of their core guys are getting older and their farm is drying up. I like the model of building with youth with a few veterans sprinkled in as it makes for a longer window. Texas a few years ago spent like crazy, traded off prospects like crazy and got hot at the right time and won a WS but they have fallen off as they did a quick fix. It will satisfy the masses for now but they are milling around the 500 area. If we can get a player, even a rental that does not cost an arm and a leg prospect wise, I am good with it but I do not want to repeat what Theo did after 2017 and gut the system. It’s taken us years to recover from that nightmare. Jed has a plan and I am a firm believer in what Jed is doing. If Long keeps tearing it up in AAA, I would not mind moving on from JT and give Long AB’s especially if we have a nice lead built up. I didn’t bring up Philly, I brought up ATL. Philly did it with both young guys and high priced players which will bite them in a year as Harper and Castellanos are getting older. They really haven’t capitalized on this run like they hoped. Anyway, this is a fun watch as it seems you are one of the more educated of Cub fans as their are some on the FB sites that are clueless LOL.

 

[DeonThomas]

Correction, the '84 Cubs finished 96-65. There was a postponed game, I think against Montreal, that wasn't played.

But...........
not bad from memory, right?

 

[EyeoftheIllini]

The trade deadline is the end of July but i get your point. We can make a deal if we have to before then. When I brought those three teams up, I was using a 10 year window. All three have been relevant over the past several years and they have success behind them. Houston has finally fallen off a bit as somewhat of their core guys are getting older and their farm is drying up. I like the model of building with youth with a few veterans sprinkled in as it makes for a longer window. Texas a few years ago spent like crazy, traded off prospects like crazy and got hot at the right time and won a WS but they have fallen off as they did a quick fix. It will satisfy the masses for now but they are milling around the 500 area. If we can get a player, even a rental that does not cost an arm and a leg prospect wise, I am good with it but I do not want to repeat what Theo did after 2017 and gut the system. It’s taken us years to recover from that nightmare. Jed has a plan and I am a firm believer in what Jed is doing. If Long keeps tearing it up in AAA, I would not mind moving on from JT and give Long AB’s especially if we have a nice lead built up. I didn’t bring up Philly, I brought up ATL. Philly did it with both young guys and high priced players which will bite them in a year as Harper and Castellanos are getting older. They really haven’t capitalized on this run like they hoped. Anyway, this is a fun watch as it seems you are one of the more educated of Cub fans as their are some on the FB sites that are clueless LOL.

Sorry about Philly/Atl mixup not going to go back and check, but likely similar. Interestingly though, with recent SP injury the Braves are likely a team Cubs will be in competition with for rotation arm(s).

Don’t get me wrong. I’m a big believer in a strong farm system and valuing those assets. And I don’t believe any chance to make a wild card should mean pushing all your prospect chips all in. But a team has to be willing to under the right circumstances spend some of its prospect capital. This team just feels like the right circumstances. Like I said in a previous post, except for a couple of pitching injuries, thus far this season has gone about as well as we could hope. Hate to risk not capitalizing on it out of fear that a prospect you trade might make it good. When in reality the large majority of prospects never make any huge impact.

Obviously there are always “can’t miss” prospects that you don’t trade. I like our top guys, but not sure I see one of those. I actually think Moises is the closest (man can hit) if not for the position (height) issue. That doesn’t mean I’d like to see any of the top guys be traded, but for the right deal I wouldn’t have an issue. Ideally as you point out that would be for a pitcher with multiple years on his contract — especially because Cubs system is not strong in pitching. Other than Horton, I think there were only 6 other pitchers on the top 30 prospect list to start the year. Three of them haven’t pitched yet this season due to injuries and one is strictly a reliever. Looking like Cubs might have something with Jaxon Wiggins, but someone who is unlikely to help this year. So use a couple of these position prospects from top 30 or 50 list, bring in some pitching reinforcements so we don’t increase risk of injury to the two young guys we do have, and make a deep run in playoffs. That would make for a nice Fall tandem to go along with Illini FB’s playoff run of its own.

 

[champaignchris]

Looking at the 6 teams that are definitively “out of it” and what starting pitching they might have to trade:

Baltimore: Sugano and Eflin are both on expiring contracts.

White Sox: Martin Perez is on an expiring contract, but may not be healthy until very late in the season.

Oakland: Severino has an additional year, but is really expensive for what you’re getting.

Miami: Alcantara is relatively cheap and very talented, but is having an awful year.

Pittsburgh: Heaney is cheap, on an expiring contract, and has been pretty good over the last 4 years. He’d be my top target.

Colorado: if they had any pitching worth getting, they’d have gotten to double-digit wins before June.

 

[Lee]

 

[GoodePodzMelendez]

Sorry about Philly/Atl mixup not going to go back and check, but likely similar. Interestingly though, with recent SP injury the Braves are likely a team Cubs will be in competition with for rotation arm(s).

Don’t get me wrong. I’m a big believer in a strong farm system and valuing those assets. And I don’t believe any chance to make a wild card should mean pushing all your prospect chips all in. But a team has to be willing to under the right circumstances spend some of its prospect capital. This team just feels like the right circumstances. Like I said in a previous post, except for a couple of pitching injuries, thus far this season has gone about as well as we could hope. Hate to risk not capitalizing on it out of fear that a prospect you trade might make it good. When in reality the large majority of prospects never make any huge impact.

Obviously there are always “can’t miss” prospects that you don’t trade. I like our top guys, but not sure I see one of those. I actually think Moises is the closest (man can hit) if not for the position (height) issue. That doesn’t mean I’d like to see any of the top guys be traded, but for the right deal I wouldn’t have an issue. Ideally as you point out that would be for a pitcher with multiple years on his contract — especially because Cubs system is not strong in pitching. Other than Horton, I think there were only 6 other pitchers on the top 30 prospect list to start the year. Three of them haven’t pitched yet this season due to injuries and one is strictly a reliever. Looking like Cubs might have something with Jaxon Wiggins, but someone who is unlikely to help this year. So use a couple of these position prospects from top 30 or 50 list, bring in some pitching reinforcements so we don’t increase risk of injury to the two young guys we do have, and make a deep run in playoffs. That would make for a nice Fall tandem to go along with Illini FB’s playoff run of its own.

Wouldn’t it be great to have a WS run in October leading into a CFP push into November with the cherry being the basketball team making a run into March. But you make a great point. MB is ready but there is not a spot for him. I have no issues using him as a cornerstone piece of a trade if we need something. Still too early as more teams would need to be sellers instead of buyers. We will know more by July 1. You are right, other than Wiggins, we really do not have a Can’t Miss guy. We have solid prospects at this point. Jed will do what is best when it gets to that point. Great debate.

 

[GoodePodzMelendez]

Looking at the 6 teams that are definitively “out of it” and what starting pitching they might have to trade:

Baltimore: Sugano and Eflin are both on expiring contracts.

White Sox: Martin Perez is on an expiring contract, but may not be healthy until very late in the season.

Oakland: Severino has an additional year, but is really expensive for what you’re getting.

Miami: Alcantara is relatively cheap and very talented, but is having an awful year.

Pittsburgh: Heaney is cheap, on an expiring contract, and has been pretty good over the last 4 years. He’d be my top target.

Colorado: if they had any pitching worth getting, they’d have gotten to double-digit wins before June.

Heaney would come cheap and he would be a guy Jed would look at.

 

[EyeoftheIllini]

Looking at the 6 teams that are definitively “out of it” and what starting pitching they might have to trade:

Baltimore: Sugano and Eflin are both on expiring contracts.

White Sox: Martin Perez is on an expiring contract, but may not be healthy until very late in the season.

Oakland: Severino has an additional year, but is really expensive for what you’re getting.

Miami: Alcantara is relatively cheap and very talented, but is having an awful year.

Pittsburgh: Heaney is cheap, on an expiring contract, and has been pretty good over the last 4 years. He’d be my top target.

Colorado: if they had any pitching worth getting, they’d have gotten to double-digit wins before June.

Great list. Thanks.

Interesting that Heaney is your top choice. I think I have PTSD in regards to him and his time with LAA. He is having a good season — Pittsburgh always seems to maximize their reclamation projects. He started out great in large part because he limited walks — only 9 in first 36 innings. In May he had 15 in 25 innings and his ERA was 4.74 for the month. His Ks also have dropped off a lot — 37 in his first 36 innings and only 16 in his last 30 innings. Certainly could be an interesting add, but have to wonder why the drop off. His last start was OK, so hopefully heading in right direction.

As to the others, Severino is too inconsistent, illiterates by his last 6 starts. He had 12 ER in 10 IP followed by 3 starts of 3 ER in 18 IP, and his last start he gave up 8 ER again. Pass on Perez unless really cheap and done as a secondary move, not the primary one. Spot on Rockies’ assessment. I doubt the price on Alcantara has come down enough to make that a reasonable risk right now. He did have his best start since his second start of season last time out (but was against Rockies), so does warrant watching.

To me, the Baltimore duo are the most interesting. Never seen Sugano pitch, but stats are pretty solid. My big worry is he pitches to contact — 40 Ks in 70 innings. Could be an issue in Wrigley if not inducing grounders/weak contact. Plus relatively small MLB sample size. Elfin has been a fairly decent back end of the rotation guy last few years. His numbers this year are a bit skewed because he missed a month and then had two terrible starts in May. He threw 7 innings of shutout ball last time out albeit against the White Sox.

Bottom line is none of these guys are likely worth pressing the issue right now. Might as well wait to let more sellers develop and see who becomes available. If I had to pick one of those to pursue now though, it would be Elfin.

Again, thanks for list. Makes for good conversation.

 

[bdutts]

Looking at the 6 teams that are definitively “out of it” and what starting pitching they might have to trade:

Baltimore: Sugano and Eflin are both on expiring contracts.

White Sox: Martin Perez is on an expiring contract, but may not be healthy until very late in the season.

Oakland: Severino has an additional year, but is really expensive for what you’re getting.

Miami: Alcantara is relatively cheap and very talented, but is having an awful year.

Pittsburgh: Heaney is cheap, on an expiring contract, and has been pretty good over the last 4 years. He’d be my top target.

Colorado: if they had any pitching worth getting, they’d have gotten to double-digit wins before June.

Maybe Alcantara can be salvaged and due to his crappy year so far, wouldn't cost much.

 

[KBLEE]