Illini Football 2025

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#528      
Here’s a fun exercise. Comparing this team to 2022 by position group:

QB: 2025 > 2022
RB: 2025 < 2022
WR: 2025 > 2022
OL: 2025 > 2022
DL: 2025 < 2022
LB: 2025 > 2022
CB: 2025 < 2022
S: 2025 > 2022

I’ve got 2025 as better in 5/8 units. What do you think?
Probablg not going to be better, but can the defense front (not just DL) match 2022? Different positions, but you can look at Newton and Jacas in similar ways as that 1A game wrecker.

Can James Thompson somewhat match Keith Randolph? The development of the transfers is critical. Can you get the 2023 versions of Tomiwa and Leon Lowery? Especially Tomiwa - plug in his stats from WVU (didn't even start), that's almost a Dennis Briggs replacement.
 
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#529      
Probablg not going to be better, but can the defense front (not just DL) match 2022? Different positions, but you can look at Newton and Jacas in similar ways as that 1A game wrecker.

Can James Thompson somewhat match Keith Randolph? The development of the transfers is critical. Can you get the 2023 versions of Tomiwa and Leon Lowery? Especially Tomiwa - plug in his stats from WVU (didn't even start), that's almost a Dennis Briggs replacement.
Thompson's more talented than Randolph (longer, more athletic), just will the production follow. No doubt a believer in Tomiwa being a solid starter.

Lowery's interesting because if Bryant wins that OLB spot, then that might be a difference of 200 snaps between the two. What he did at Syracuse in '23 made him into a four star transfer (which is very good). Just didn't work at Wisconsin.
 
#530      
Here’s a fun exercise. Comparing this team to 2022 by position group:

QB: 2025 > 2022
RB: 2025 < 2022
WR: 2025 > 2022
OL: 2025 > 2022
DL: 2025 < 2022
LB: 2025 > 2022
CB: 2025 < 2022
S: 2025 > 2022

I’ve got 2025 as better in 5/8 units. What do you think?
I'd have 2022's LB with Barnes, Hart, and Darkangelo over this group. Depth of S makes this group better, but Sydney Brown is just freakier athletically than Bailey.
 
#531      
Probablg not going to be better, but can the defense front (not just DL) match 2022? Different positions, but you can look at Newton and Jacas in similar ways as that 1A game wrecker.

Can James Thompson somewhat match Keith Randolph? The development of the transfers is critical. Can you get the 2023 versions of Tomiwa and Leon Lowery? Especially Tomiwa - plug in his stats from WVU (didn't even start), that's almost a Dennis Briggs replacement.
No matter how great Thompson is, there's little to no chance he matches 2022 Randolph - 53 tackles/13 TFLs/4.5 sacks.

Newton and Randolph combined that year had 115 tackles/27 TFLs/10 sacks. Simply legendary.
 
#534      
I guess you should never respond to your own post? But… Really Lou Henson was exactly the same thing when he was hired. Illinois was terrible under Harv/Bartow. Lou Henson is really solely responsible for where Illinois basketball is today in my opinion? He took a terrible product and made it fun. The same thing happened we got Audi, Eddie and Mark along with many other “good” players and we started to win. Then we finally made the NCAA tournament (back then it was really hard to get it), and now we are for sure a top 15-20 type team nationally. That one hire was critical. The examples at other schools are the same (Heathcoat/Izzo, Alverez, Farenz, even Fitsgerald really?). All great hires who changed the LONG term trajectory of their schools programs.

BB is now in the process of doing that for Illinois football. Really amazing feat.
 
#537      
#538      

This is not helping me constrain my expectations.

Most pre-season hype for Illinois in a long time (and deservedly so). Really wonder how they'll handle the recent success. I expect after a while it starts to go to their heads, but should be interesting to see how it goes.
Going to be hard to top that 10 win season, but this year could be even better.
 
#542      
Hey @Fighter of the Nightman , if you've posted about this recently apologies for missing it. Curious if you have any updated predictions for the start times of the USC and OSU games. I've got some large group tailgate plans in the works for each and having an idea of game time possibilities would be useful. Thanks in advance!
Lol, funny story. I wasted no less than an hour trying to make this super long post about trying to guess some of our game times for Week Four and beyond ... and here is the summary of that effort:

its always sunny in philadelphia carol GIF


With that said, here is a shorter version and a somewhat more in-depth version of my thoughts.

Shorter Version
1. The ONLY way you can really guess our game time is if you think it will be selected for one of our affiliated networks' preferred slots - 11:00 am on FOX, 2:30 pm on CBS or 6:30 pm on NBC. If our game is likely to slide down to BTN, FS1 or Peacock, it is anyone's guess.

2. The networks have a draft for weekends before the season starts, and you would have to start trying to guess how many "first picks" each network has already used based on the information available. The article talks in more detail, but basically FOX gets significant preference, and CBS and NBC have an equal number of picks.

3. If you want to try to play detective, that article can help narrow things down a LITTLE bit. For example, it was confirmed that FOX used two for Texas at OSU and OSU at Michigan, and NBC used one of its picks on Oregon at PSU - the latter being the same weekend we play USC!

4. Long story short for USC, I DO think we will be one of the top three Big Ten games that weekend and will thus be in one of the preferred slots. 6:30 pm on NBC is already taken, so I think you can count on 11:00 am or 2:30 pm. Not super specific, but you'll at least almost certainly be attending a day game!

More Fighter Thoughts
Okay ... these are the Big Ten games the same week we play USC:

PRIME SPOTS
11:00 am on FOX -
2:30 pm on CBS -
6:30 pm on NBC - #7 Oregon at #2 Ohio State

UNANNOUNCED GAMES
USC at #12 Illinois
#3 Ohio State at Washington
#20 Indiana at Iowa
Rutgers at Minnesota
UCLA at Northwestern

- I am extremely confident that Rutgers/Minnesota and UCLA/Northwestern will fall to the BTN/FS1/Peacock channels. So, I think USC/Illinois, OSU/Washington and Indiana/Iowa are fighting for 11:00 am on FOX or 2:30 pm on CBS.
- It looks like Indiana/Iowa is confirmed as either 11:00 am or 2:30 pm ... so it can at least be eliminated as a 6:30 pm BTN/FS1 spot and thus is maybe technically a tad less likely for BTN/FS1 relegation? Still, I would also argue it MIGHT be the least enticing of the three listed above? Will depend on how every team listed is doing.
- Probably our biggest competition is OSU/Washington. If you're hoping for a 2:30 pm (on CBS) kickoff, we would hope that Big Noon Kickoff heads to Seattle ... but I fear they would want to avoid FOX's flagship program head to a game that would kick off at 9:00 am PST, lol. Looking at last season, the former Pac-12 teams played ZERO 11:00 am CST home games ... and that makes sense. So, I think it is unlikely OSU at Washington takes Big Noon Kickoff, and if that game is deemed worthy of a preferred spot ... my guess is 2:30 pm on CBS.
- So, my GUESS is USC/Illinois will be Big Noon Kickoff at 11:00 am on FOX ... unfortunate for your crew's tailgating time, but it would also be really cool to see the scene/fanfare in Grange Grove if the Big Noon crew is there!

The first consideration will come down to what the TWO most appealing games are of these three:
1. USC at #12 Illinois
2. #3 Ohio State at Washington
3. 20 Indiana at Iowa

The more I think about it, I just can't see them NOT scooping up a top 5 OSU team heading to Seattle, especially considering Washington very well might still be rocking the second longest home winning streak in college football at this point. So, I would guess it's Indiana/Iowa vs. USC/Illinois for the third spot.

On that note, it will just depend on how everyone is doing. Who wins the Illini/Indiana game will obviously be huge for this. USC has an excellent chance to be undefeated and probably ranked by the time they head to Champaign, and Iowa could be 3-1 or maybe undefeated (if they can win at Iowa State) when they host Indiana. None of the four teams will be a ratings tanker ala Northwestern, so I feel it's a crapshoot which game will be "better" and it will totally depend on the results before this weekend.

TL;DR

All in all, I'll throw out a guess that there is a 60% chance we are at 11:00 am, a 35% chance we are at 2:30 pm and a 5% chance we end up at 6:30 pm on BTN/FS1 (highly doubt that a Homecoming game would be at night, though).
 
#543      
No matter how great Thompson is, there's little to no chance he matches 2022 Randolph - 53 tackles/13 TFLs/4.5 sacks.

Newton and Randolph combined that year had 115 tackles/27 TFLs/10 sacks. Simply legendary.

Here to support this comment.

Newton > Jacas
2022 Randolph >> 2023 Randolph, which is tainting people's memory of his play


It's fun to talk about the totality of the unit, but I would trade out Jacas and Thompson now for '22 version of the Law Firm.
 
#544      
Here to support this comment.

Newton > Jacas
2022 Randolph >> 2023 Randolph, which is tainting people's memory of his play


It's fun to talk about the totality of the unit, but I would trade out Jacas and Thompson now for '22 version of the Law Firm.
I’m not a DL expert by any means, but I did hear (can’t remember where, maybe a press conference or an inquirer podcast?) that the insurance policy Jacas was able to take out to come back this year was larger than the one Newton got to come back in 2023. So I’m expecting a monster year.
 
#545      
I’m not a DL expert by any means, but I did hear (can’t remember where, maybe a press conference or an inquirer podcast?) that the insurance policy Jacas was able to take out to come back this year was larger than the one Newton got to come back in 2023. So I’m expecting a monster year.

Jacas and Newton do not play the same position, so it's a little tricky to do an apples-to-apples comparison. But remember that an insurance policy is about potential future earnings. If Newton and Jacas both become all-pros in the NFL, Jacas has a higher earning potential because of the value placed on great edges compared to interior DL. That gap is maintained if both are good or average NFL players. That's my assumption for the insurance policy is baking that into their cost calculations, not necessarily decided who will have a better final year in college.
 
#547      
Jacas and Newton do not play the same position, so it's a little tricky to do an apples-to-apples comparison. But remember that an insurance policy is about potential future earnings. If Newton and Jacas both become all-pros in the NFL, Jacas has a higher earning potential because of the value placed on great edges compared to interior DL. That gap is maintained if both are good or average NFL players. That's my assumption for the insurance policy is baking that into their cost calculations, not necessarily decided who will have a better final year in college.
Makes sense, thanks for the breakdown
 
#548      
Here to support this comment.

Newton > Jacas
2022 Randolph >> 2023 Randolph, which is tainting people's memory of his play


It's fun to talk about the totality of the unit, but I would trade out Jacas and Thompson now for '22 version of the Law Firm.
I wouldn’t hate Jacas over Newton. The edge position is much more valuable than a 3 technique IDL (hence stats may be slightly better). But impact wise, there's no taking one over the other as both are certified game wreckers.

People forget how good Randolph was in '22. If he had the same production in '23 we're talking about him in the exact breath as Newton. As for Thompson - no doubt high hopes, but would be an absolute grand slam if he's 2022 Randolph.
 
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