Thanks, yeah, that makes more sense
Week of 2/16 Bracketology
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Committee members have said as much although they've also said the opposite. So who knows.
I think it could be a situation where, by game 33 or 34, 1 single game isn't going to influence a team's overall body of work enough to affect their seed.
Committee members have never said the opposite, it's just been fan speculation that Sunday doesn't matter. At most, the committee states that they don't change the brackets on Sunday after the B1G championship game because there isn't enough time. They typically will have any potential necessary brackets at the ready based on the results, though. Sunday has 4 games, and only 2 typically affect at large spots in the tournament (SEC and B1G), so you need effectively 4-8 potential brackets, and if you decide that the Sunday game wouldn't affect a team's positioning, then you need fewer.
I wonder if JT Toppin regrets not turning pro last year?
DeonThomas
- South Carolina
2 minutes.....
The other Illinois-induced NCAA Tournament Rule change dates back to 1984, of course. THE ELIMINATION OF HOME COURT ADVANTAGES IN THE TOURNEY.
DeonThomas
- South Carolina
I can also recall a time or two when the Committee had two extremely comparable teams playing one another in the championship, and they were able to state: "The winner gets seed A in this Region; the loser gets seed B in that Region." Hence, the bracket was rolled-out without all games written in permanent ink.
"We have to make a move at some point in the afternoon," (2004 Selection Committee Chair) Bowlsby said at the time. "While we were in the seeding process, we made the considered decision that we were no longer going to be able to consider Oklahoma State to move up onto the top line because they hadn't completed their game yet."
Fighter of the Nightman
- Chicago, IL
Everyone is VERY focused on Michigan, but it's important to remember that winning out includes winning our only head-to-head matchup with them. These are the current resumes for Illinois and Michigan as of today...
ILLINOIS
Record: 22-5
NET: #4
Road Record: 7-1
vs. Quad 1A: 5-4
vs. Quad 1: 7-4
vs. Quad 2: 5-1
vs. Quad 3: 5-0
vs. Quad 4: 5-0
MICHIGAN
Record: 25-1
NET: #1
Road Record: 9-0
vs. Quad 1A: 5-0
vs. Quad 1: 10-0
vs. Quad 2: 9-1
vs. Quad 3: 4-0
vs. Quad 4: 2-0
If Illinois won out and Michigan lost to Duke and Illinois, these would be their resumes before the BTT began:
Illinois
- W at UCLA (Q1)
- W vs. Michigan (Q1A)
- W vs. Oregon (Q3)
- W at Maryland (Q3)
- 4-0 overall
- 2-0 road
- 1-0 Q1A
- 2-0 Q1
- 2-0 Q3
ILLINOIS
Record: 26-5
NET: #2-5??
Road Record: 9-1
vs. Quad 1A: 6-4
vs. Quad 1: 9-4
vs. Quad 2: 5-1
vs. Quad 3: 7-0
vs. Quad 4: 5-0
MICHIGAN
Record: 28-3
NET: #2-5??
Road Record: 10-1
vs. Quad 1A: 7-2
vs. Quad 1: 12-2
vs. Quad 2: 10-1
vs. Quad 3: 4-0
vs. Quad 4: 2-0
So Michigan would still have a slightly better resume on paper, but I think there are a few things that could cause the Committee to give us an edge.
(1) Perhaps most importantly, we would have beat them head to head.
(2) While Michigan has not experienced any major injuries, 1 of our Quad 1A losses was in OT on the road without a starter, and the other was in OT at home without two starters.
(3) Keeping with the quality of losses point, every single one of our losses is Quad 1A except for Wisconsin at home, which was an OT loss without two starters. Michigan also would only have one non-Quad 1A loss to the same team also at home, but they lost in regulation by more and were at full strength.
Of course, it would be VERY nice for us if Michigan started dropping some games like at Iowa or being stunned early on Friday in the BTT and we keep winning!
Comment on this:
When the committee starts their deliberation, they will get data sheets on the top 105 teams in the NET, and any team outside of the top 105 in the NET that is the conference leader. Those begin as the teams under consideration for at large bids. They'll begin with each member providing two sets of lists: First, their top 16 teams, and second, the 16 teams in the list that should be removed from consideration.
From there, they'll pull the top 8 teams by average, and have all committee members vote on those teams (except members of the committee that represent one of those schools!), and the top 4 will be placed on the top line.
From the list of teams that the committee thinks should be removed, they'll remove any teams that come up on a supermajority of lists, after any discussion necessary for members fighting for inclusion of this team or that team.
So, from the tweet, it can be assumed that a supermajority of the media doing the mock committee decided that Austin Peay was not worthy of at-large consideration in their first round of voting.
Not only that, it also makes the assumption that Illinois winning out means Michigan gets 2 losses going forward at minimum (at Illinois, in the BTT).
In the 22 years since then, some advances have been made in the software.
Fighter of the Nightman
- Chicago, IL
As has been discussed many times here before, I just have to believe it's probably generally the case that the BTT Championship result will not affect seeding but also that each season has unique considerations. Using this year as an example hypothetical, let's imagine that Houston stays hot and moves in line for the third #1 seed, meaning the Committee has already decided that Arizona gets West, Duke gets East and Houston gets South (Houston). If Michigan is #4 on the S-curve and we are #5 and the bracket would work perfectly flawlessly as far as logistics go either way, I do think they might have one bracket with us as the #1 in Chicago and Michigan as the top #2 elsewhere and another bracket with the inverse, based on the BTT Championship Game result. After all, at that point it is literally as easy as choosing Version A or Version B when both are totally complete and proofread already!
There's also this quote from 2023.
“There are years when you’re crunched for time and you’ve got to move,” Burnett said. “You can’t have a few more hours of discussion on a single conference tournament title game. You’ve got to get the bracket ready by the broadcast deadline....So I think if anyone has an absolute thought that Sunday’s games do or don’t matter one way or the other, I would tell you it’s somewhere in between.”
I mean, I've been pretty steady in my belief that Sunday could, should, and occasionally does matter for seeding. And it sounds like you agree with me. I'm just pointing out that the committee hasn't exactly been consistent with their explanations so I can't blame fans for not being able to come to a consensus.
Michigan beating Purdue made it very hard to pass them for big ten or 1 seed. they would need to lose to us, Duke and another big ten game in either regular season or early in big ten tourney for us to pass them.... assuming we win out
has Illinois ever been a 2 seed before? I can't remember. 3 seed at least twice (one we won't discuss)
1983-84 season.
Too soon.
I was just thinking about how many people now wouldn’t get that reference.
I think maybe they went the wrong way with the conference tournament. Have fewer teams get in not more. Make the regular season that much more meaningful and limit the number of games teams have to play before the first round.
ChiefGritty
- Chicago, IL
Between 1-12 we have been everything except a 10.
But we do have a weird penchant for being at the top of the bracket (1/16, 8/9, 4/13, 5/12) rather than the bottom (3/14, 6/11, 7/10, 2/15).
Between 1998 and 2023 we were on the top half 14 times and the bottom half just one.
But we have been in the bottom half each of the last two years now.
The Rupp Rule was made after this tourney. Playing UK in Rupp in the EE and the refs ignoring a late travel by Dickie Beal sealed it for UK
Fighter of the Nightman
- Chicago, IL
Not sure the source of this and / or how it has changed since earlier in the week, but here is a reminder of when each seed would play for anyone thinking of going to the BTT (like Mrs. Fighter and me!). I'm assuming none of the Tuesday teams (#15-18) make it to Friday and none of the #11-14 seeds make it to Saturday, FWIW ... doesn't affect us much anywho.
FRIDAY - Quarterfinals
Session 6 | 11:00 am - #1, #8, #9
Session 6 | 1:30 pm - #4, #5, #12, #13
Session 7 | 5:30 pm - #2, #7, #10
Session 7 | 8:00 pm - #3, #6, #11, #14
SATURDAY - Semifinals
Session 8 | 12:00 pm - #1, #4, #5, #8, #9
Session 8 | 2:30 pm - #2, #3, #6, #7, #10
So on the chart above, Illinois has the following "somewhat realistic" probabilities:
20.0% for #1 seed
42.9% for #2 seed
22.7% for #3 seed
10.0% for #4 seed
3.6% for #5 seed
And if you simply sum them by the sessions listed above (obviously assuming we win Friday, as this is the probability of a "path")...
FRIDAY - Quarterfinals
Session 6 | 11:00 am - 20.0%
Session 6 | 1:30 pm - 10.0% + 3.6% = 13.6%
Session 7 | 5:30 pm - 42.9%
Session 7 | 8:00 pm - 22.7%
---> 33.6% chance we are in Session 6 (morning) and 65.6% chance we are in Session 7 (evening).
The odds are the same for our game times on Saturday (Session 6 = 12:00 pm path and Session 7 = 2:30 pm path), but Saturday is all one session so you'd be buying tickets to both games anyway.
TL;DR
I bet since this was posted, our odds of being either the #2 or #3 seed have risen dramatically, as this was before Michigan won at Purdue. If you want to watch the Illini in the BTT, there is VERY good chance that you should buy Session 7 tickets, as it will cover you for both Friday night games (5:30 pm if we are the #2 seed and 8:00 pm if we are the #3 seed). Let's paint the UC orange again!!
Fighter of the Nightman
- Chicago, IL
I know at the end of the day it's about us showing up and taking care of business. However, I personally don't want to face Kansas. I would take them over Florida, but MAN would it be nice to get another rematch with Nebraska or especially a short-handed Texas Tech on a neutral floor. As far as #1 seeds, we would obviously love to get UConn over any of those other three, but what I honestly care most about is avoiding Arizona until the Final Four.
We have locked in no worse than a 3. Go no worse than 3-1 and 2-1 in the BTT will get us a 2 seed. Nebraks’s Non con schedule will pour them to a 4 at best unless they win the BTT. We are battling Houston, Ia St, UConn, Florida, KU, Purdue for the last 1 and 2 seed. We run the table and we will be the 4th 1.Not sure the source of this and / or how it has changed since earlier in the week, but here is a reminder of when each seed would play for anyone thinking of going to the BTT (like Mrs. Fighter and me!). I'm assuming none of the Tuesday teams (#15-18) make it to Friday and none of the #11-14 seeds make it to Saturday, FWIW ... doesn't affect us much anywho.
FRIDAY - Quarterfinals
Session 6 | 11:00 am - #1, #8, #9
Session 6 | 1:30 pm - #4, #5, #12, #13
Session 7 | 5:30 pm - #2, #7, #10
Session 7 | 8:00 pm - #3, #6, #11, #14
SATURDAY - Semifinals
Session 8 | 12:00 pm - #1, #4, #5, #8, #9
Session 8 | 2:30 pm - #2, #3, #6, #7, #10
So on the chart above, Illinois has the following "somewhat realistic" probabilities:
20.0% for #1 seed
42.9% for #2 seed
22.7% for #3 seed
10.0% for #4 seed
3.6% for #5 seed
And if you simply sum them by the sessions listed above (obviously assuming we win Friday, as this is the probability of a "path")...
FRIDAY - Quarterfinals
Session 6 | 11:00 am - 20.0%
Session 6 | 1:30 pm - 10.0% + 3.6% = 13.6%
Session 7 | 5:30 pm - 42.9%
Session 7 | 8:00 pm - 22.7%
---> 33.6% chance we are in Session 6 (morning) and 65.6% chance we are in Session 7 (evening).
The odds are the same for our game times on Saturday (Session 6 = 12:00 pm path and Session 7 = 2:30 pm path), but Saturday is all one session so you'd be buying tickets to both games anyway.
TL;DR
I bet since this was posted, our odds of being either the #2 or #3 seed have risen dramatically, as this was before Michigan won at Purdue. If you want to watch the Illini in the BTT, there is VERY good chance that you should buy Session 7 tickets, as it will cover you for both Friday night games (5:30 pm if we are the #2 seed and 8:00 pm if we are the #3 seed). Let's paint the UC orange again!!
DeonThomas
- South Carolina
Agreed. It's rather absurd to include the bottom 6.
And I'd argue that 12 teams are probably too many too, but then again there's the "REVENUE" thing.
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