Pregame: Illinois at UCLA, Saturday, February 21st, 7:00pm CT, FOX
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DeonThomas
- South Carolina
Would you happen to be there watching practice (in order to know this)? Just asking for a friend.....
This doesn't make me feel better whatsoever.UCLA is annoyingly FAR more effective at home. They shoot 40% from 3 at Pauley. They have the best home record in the conference and could easily be undefeated at home if not for some strange officiating at the end of their one loss. Gotta stay the course because they are going to hit shots. One thing we have going for us is that I'm not expecting much
from the refs, at least not to the extent of what we all knew was coming at Breslin (which somehow exceeded my expectations).
That said, the only win of note is versus Purdue. Obviously, that's hugely significant. Outside of that, I'd say that their most impressive outcome would be a 4 point loss to AZ. The have a solid record, but it seems like they've done just enough to get by beating a lot of middle of the pack teams.
THAT said, outside of Texas Tech in November, we haven't exactly lined up great wins at home either.
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skyIdub
"I can't tell you. Secret."
This healthy rotation is a wagon right now.
Davis is a perfect 2/3 to compliment Bam and Wagler. Andrej is a perfect 6th man to spell Bam/Wagler and hunt matchups or cover foul troubles.
Ben and Z with Davis/Tomi for the same reasons....never losing the threat from 3.
If they commit to defense like Indinia and USC.......I'll take us vs anyone in the country right now.
JFGsCoffeeMug
BU:1 Trash cans:0
- Chicago
People who still see us as an all-offense-no-defense team are in for a rude awakening now that we're starting to get healthy. We're getting it done on both sides of the ball right now.
Kostas
- Naperville, IL
I'll be honest, was a bit surprised to see Andrej in against USC. Thought I saw him limp / favor the ankle one or twice. Yes, he did well, but we didn't need him and healthy through April is far preferable.
Went through the NCAA team stats just to look at comparisons. A few items:
Scoring -- Comparing pts scored vs. what UCLA gives up (and vice-versa) shows Illini 78-73
Effective FG% -- Again using ours vs. what they give up shows a 52-46% Illini advantage
FTs -- Each team averages 20 attempts a game. Illini shoot 79%, UCLA 76%. They foul 17 times a game, we foul 12 a game. Blending all that together gives Illini a 4-point advantage there
3-pointers -- They average 20 attempts, we average 31. Blending the % made vs, what the teams limited opponents to then multiplying that figure gives the Illini a 10-point advantage
Rebounds -- No surprise, but here is where the stats say the game will be decided. The Illini have a plus-10 rebound margin; UCLA is net zero. They do average 10 offensive rebounds to the Illini's 13.
That said, I was surprised when I looked at UCLA's recent losses to MSU and Michigan, They lost the rebound battle to MSU 37-27, but got 9 offensive rebounds to MSU's 8. MSU won by hitting 14 of 27 threes and limiting UCLA to an overall FG% of 37. The Michigan game was even more surprising. Michigan only outrebounded UCLA by 1 and lost the offensive rebound margin 7-13. Michigan won by hitting 62% of its shots compared to 38% by UCLA. Given the blowout nature of both games, what I don't know is whether UCLA closed the rebound margins in both games after MSU and Michigan emptied their benches.
Scoring -- Comparing pts scored vs. what UCLA gives up (and vice-versa) shows Illini 78-73
Effective FG% -- Again using ours vs. what they give up shows a 52-46% Illini advantage
FTs -- Each team averages 20 attempts a game. Illini shoot 79%, UCLA 76%. They foul 17 times a game, we foul 12 a game. Blending all that together gives Illini a 4-point advantage there
3-pointers -- They average 20 attempts, we average 31. Blending the % made vs, what the teams limited opponents to then multiplying that figure gives the Illini a 10-point advantage
Rebounds -- No surprise, but here is where the stats say the game will be decided. The Illini have a plus-10 rebound margin; UCLA is net zero. They do average 10 offensive rebounds to the Illini's 13.
That said, I was surprised when I looked at UCLA's recent losses to MSU and Michigan, They lost the rebound battle to MSU 37-27, but got 9 offensive rebounds to MSU's 8. MSU won by hitting 14 of 27 threes and limiting UCLA to an overall FG% of 37. The Michigan game was even more surprising. Michigan only outrebounded UCLA by 1 and lost the offensive rebound margin 7-13. Michigan won by hitting 62% of its shots compared to 38% by UCLA. Given the blowout nature of both games, what I don't know is whether UCLA closed the rebound margins in both games after MSU and Michigan emptied their benches.
Jake He just fits perfectly with that starting group. You CANNOT leave him and that opens up the entire floor. He’s also been solid defensively so he is not hurting you there.
Then Andrej coming off the bench just makes that group that much better. He provides a DYNAMIC scoring option.
Finally, when both Kylan and Andrej are on the floor together, you have two guys who aren’t great three-point shooters. I like breaking that up a little bit.
Don’t change a thing.
3 point %:
Wagler- 42.9
Davis- 41.6
Mirk- 39.4
If you wanna pin down why this offense is super elite, it’s getting that production from those 3 guys. I don’t think anyone would have anticipated that before the season. 2 freshman and a midmajor transfer who only played 9 minutes a game last season.
Wagler- 42.9
Davis- 41.6
Mirk- 39.4
If you wanna pin down why this offense is super elite, it’s getting that production from those 3 guys. I don’t think anyone would have anticipated that before the season. 2 freshman and a midmajor transfer who only played 9 minutes a game last season.
Torvik rates UCLA's adjusted offense/defense at 120.4/98.4 at home vs 116.9/105.4 away. These are already adjusted for opponent and (I believe) location, so they have indeed had much stronger home/road splits than expected. For reference, Tovik rates our adjusted offense/defense at 130.6/98.6 at home vs 137.6/98.6 away, so we have been the opposite, though not as extreme. I would guess the sample size for these is small enough that there's a lot of uncertainty around what these will be going forward, though.UCLA is annoyingly FAR more effective at home. They shoot 40% from 3 at Pauley. They have the best home record in the conference and could easily be undefeated at home if not for some strange officiating at the end of their one loss. Gotta stay the course because they are going to hit shots. One thing we have going for us is that I'm not expecting much
That still puts our away rating (we're ranked 2) much better than their home rating (they're ranked 31). Not sure how much Torvik's model takes the specific home/away splits of individual teams into account for the game projection, but it gives us a 76% chance of winning and expected margin of 7.3 points. I don't see betting lines yet for the game, but prediction markets give us a 70-75% chance of winning.
Keeping Jake in the starting line up is the right move. But what I really like about it is just the fact the staff had the guts to do it...To put our prized transfer portal addition, the son of an NBA hall of famer, on the bench in favor of a kid from Mercer that no one heard of until last year.
And if Andrej accepts this with the positive attitude that it looked like he had at USC, then I like that even more.
Vibes around this team are immaculate.
And if Andrej accepts this with the positive attitude that it looked like he had at USC, then I like that even more.
Vibes around this team are immaculate.
I think it's worth pointing out that, though we're likely to do this anyway, this game could tie the record for regular season wins for Underwood at Illinois. Most we've gotten was 23 back in the 24 season with TSJ. A win tomorrow night and we're already there with three games to go, two of which we'll be heavily favored in. We haven't won more than 23 regular season games since the 05-06 season.
(Obvious caveat being that the 20-21 team played fewer games in the regular season or they probably would have too.)
(Obvious caveat being that the 20-21 team played fewer games in the regular season or they probably would have too.)
Andrej only played 18 minutes and was limping. Limiting his minutes is a conservative approach.
Agreed. Get him healthy.
Illinicpa14
- Chicago
Brad doesnt play guys who don’t respond to that (tre white saga last year).
Every time I see Andre on the court, he seems to have a lot of fun and enjoys the other guys. End of season he may decide he wants something else for year 4 but think he’s bought in with this teams ceiling the next 5-10 games to close us out.
Guy scored 22pts in 17 minutes. I think he was alright.
skyIdub
"I can't tell you. Secret."
TYLE...ERRRRR 0440 JUST SENT THEM MY POST AND WERNER TWEETED THIS SH#T SIX MINUTES LATER TELL ME I'M WRONG EVEN THOUGH YOU KNOW I'M RIGHT
I feel like this every game. We are not going to replicate the way we played Wednesday. We were in another dimension. However, if we come out and play hard, smart, and move the basketball, we will be fine.
Need to limit Bilodeau’s clean looks. Last year in Champaign he was wide open all night and he had a big game.
Per Torvik, Illinois is the #1 team in the country since the Nebraska loss:
Jake has definitely improved and become a better all around player, but in fairness to him, he’s always had a flamethrower of a shot. I never understood his 3P% from last year. Great, compact form; quick release; good body control. I think his shot is going in every time, even more so than Keaton (or anybody on any other college team for that matter). I felt that way last year too, but for some reason they just didn’t hit as often, not to mention he had more limited opportunities. He’s now benefitting from the chance to get in a groove offensively with more playing time and let things come to him. Just a fantastic, fantastic role player for the modern game.
Funny to think back on it but as much as we loved Goode, Jake has ended up being a superior replacement.
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