Week of 2/23 Bracketology

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#151      
jrichisamazing
Fly Illini Fly! said:
I referenced this a few pages back. As long as we avoid the two Q3 games:

The BEST thing that can happen for our BTT seeding is for Nebraska and Purdue to both win out

And Michigan State to lose to Indiana and Michigan State.

We'd be the 3seed -- and while other potential scenarios could give us the 2seed -- the way certain matchups line up...

that's what'll give us the best chance to get to the conf championship game.
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I think there are multiple ways to get the 2/3 seed right?

The way I'm seeing it on the generator, basically just have to avoid a multi team tie with both MSU and Nebraska.
 
#152      
jrichisamazing
Here are all the 5 loss multi team tie breaking scenarios with what seed we would get. I think we can all agree we want to be on the opposite side of the bracket from Michigan.

Illinois, Purdue, Nebraska = 2
Illinois, MSU, Purdue = 3
Illinois, MSU, Nebraska = 4
Illinois, MSU, Purdue, Nebraska = 4

Now who would we want as the 2 or 3 to play in the semi finals? That's debatable. In scenario 1 above, Purdue is the 3 seed. In scenario 2, MSU is the 2. If Purdue and MSU both drop to 6 losses then we would play Nebraska in the semis.
 
#153      
Oracle21
jrichisamazing said:
Here are all the 5 loss multi team tie breaking scenarios with what seed we would get. I think we can all agree we want to be on the opposite side of the bracket from Michigan.

Illinois, Purdue, Nebraska = 2
Illinois, MSU, Purdue = 3
Illinois, MSU, Nebraska = 4
Illinois, MSU, Purdue, Nebraska = 4

Now who would we want as the 2 or 3 to play in the semi finals? That's debatable. In scenario 1 above, Purdue is the 3 seed. In scenario 2, MSU is the 2. If Purdue and MSU both drop to 6 losses then we would play Nebraska in the semis.
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I think Purdue/MSU/Nebraska as far as who is the toughest matchup in that order

I’m still not a believer in Nebraska. I think IL would handle them again

I think IL can def beat MSU. Still not impressed with MSU’s offense.

Purdue and Wisconsin are the teams I’d want to avoid. I just think both are bad matchups. It took an insane Wagler game to beat Purdue first time I doubt that could happen again. And Wisconsin has the quick guards and stretch bigs to bother us.

Rest of the Big 10 of the lower teams I don’t see much to be afraid of. I think we’d beat UCLA/Iowa/Indiana and everyone else below them pretty easily
 
#154      
GoodePodzMelendez
The good news is by winning the last two games, we are a lock for the triple bye. The bad news is we will be the 4th seed against most likely Purdue in the Quarters with Michigan in the Semis. We are wearing down once again, not having a deep bench will submerge this season in a Round of 32 loss. I have been a proponent of 9-10 guys playing doublers digit minutes throughout the year to get ready for March. We have 8 guys. Misses on Lee, JJ and Petro has really hurt. I hope Brad one days figures it out that he needs 10 guys who can play D1 ball on the roster.
 
#156      
fatboyslim
GoodePodzMelendez said:
The good news is by winning the last two games, we are a lock for the triple bye. The bad news is we will be the 4th seed against most likely Purdue in the Quarters with Michigan in the Semis. We are wearing down once again, not having a deep bench will submerge this season in a Round of 32 loss. I have been a proponent of 9-10 guys playing doublers digit minutes throughout the year to get ready for March. We have 8 guys. Misses on Lee, JJ and Petro has really hurt. I hope Brad one days figures it out that he needs 10 guys who can play D1 ball on the roster.
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There are still 2-3 games left for every team in the conference. There is no ‘we will be’ yet. We could be a 2,3, or 4 seed.
 
#160      
CleverHandle1
GoodePodzMelendez said:
The good news is by winning the last two games, we are a lock for the triple bye. The bad news is we will be the 4th seed against most likely Purdue in the Quarters with Michigan in the Semis. We are wearing down once again, not having a deep bench will submerge this season in a Round of 32 loss. I have been a proponent of 9-10 guys playing doublers digit minutes throughout the year to get ready for March. We have 8 guys. Misses on Lee, JJ and Petro has really hurt. I hope Brad one days figures it out that he needs 10 guys who can play D1 ball on the roster
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I am under the impression is that the Quarters would be Illinois's first game in the BTT?

It'd be so demoralizing to win vs. Oregon and at Maryland, only to lose to a a vengeful PU team in your first game of the BTT.

A #3 seed it would be. And although I still feel they would win in R2, there still a chance for them to blow it.
 
#162      
Fighter of the Nightman
RE: The Round of 32 exit concerns, I will operate under the assumption that we will be a #2 or #3 seed in the NCAA Tournament. Here are the #2 and #3 seeds since the 2022 NCAA Tournament, organized by how they ended up:

National Champion
N/A

National Runner-Up
N/A

Final Four
2022 #2 Villanova
2022 #2 Duke

Elite Eight
2023 #2 Texas
2024 #2 Tennessee
2025 #2 Michigan State
2025 #2 Alabama
2025 #2 Tennessee
2023 #3 Kansas State
2023 #3 Gonzaga
2024 #3 Illinois
2025 #3 Texas Tech

Sweet Sixteen
2023 #2 UCLA
2024 #2 Iowa State
2024 #2 Arizona
2024 #2 Marquette
2022 #3 Purdue
2022 #3 Texas Tech
2023 #3 Xavier
2024 #3 Creighton
2025 #3 Kentucky

Second Round
2022 #2 Auburn
2023 #2 Marquette
2025 #2 St. John's (NY)
2022 #3 Wisconsin
2022 #3 Tennessee
2023 #3 Baylor
2024 #3 Baylor
2025 #3 Iowa State
2025 #3 Wisconsin

First Round
2022 #2 Kentucky
2023 #2 Arizona
2024 #3 Kentucky


So, overall this group had these stats:
- 0 won the National Championship
- 0 made the National Championship Game
- 2 made the Final Four
- 9 lost in the Elite Eight
---> 11 made the Elite Eight or beyond
- 9 lost in the Sweet Sixteen
---> 20 made it to the Second Weekend (Sweet Sixteen or beyond)
- 9 lost in the Second Round
---> 29 made it out of the First Round
- 3 lost in the First Round

I would love for someone with the available KenPom stats or whatever to give a more insightful look at what sets the early exits apart.
 
#163      
Lysol623
Illinialldayeveryday said:
I meant they need 6 losses for BTT purposes. I am pretty confident that if we win the next 2 we are getting a 3 seed even with early BTT loss. Other teams will lose too.
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I'm not that confident in winning two and keeping the 3 seed. We'd be finishing the season on a 4-5 run. The top 4 seed is the 13th ranked team essentially by the committee. Based on the remaining schedules, if we won our next two and lost to Purdue in the Quarters, I think we are the top 4 seed.

Michigan- 1 seed
Purdue- 2 seed
Sparty - 3 seed
Nebby - 3- seed
Illinois - 3 or 4 seed
 
#164      
Illini2010-11
Lysol623 said:
I think 4 more wins keeps us as a 2 seed. 3 wins and we are a 3 seed. 2 wins and we may fall to a 4 seed.
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I think this is accurate. 4 wins adds two Quad 3 and two Quad 1 wins. Not a guaranteed 2 seed, but given our NET, we would be in very good shape.

3 wins likely means two Quad 3 wins and a Quad 1 win. Should be enough to keep us around a 3 seed.

Only 2 wins (likely Quad 3 wins), and things are more dicey. However, a 3 seed could still very well be on table. This is the year where avoiding the 4 line is imperative, since the 1 seeds this year are far and away better than the 2 seeds.

Getting a 2/3 seed and things line up well to have a great shot at E8. 4 seed, and getting to E8 would likely mean beating a Duke/Mich/Arizona. That would be a major uphill battle.

This week is so imperative to avoid the Quad 3 loss, which would set us back to the 4 line going into BTT.
 
#165      
fatboyslim
Illini2010-11 said:
I think this is accurate. 4 wins adds two Quad 3 and two Quad 1 wins. Not a guaranteed 2 seed, but given our NET, we would be in very good shape.

3 wins likely means two Quad 3 wins and a Quad 1 win. Should be enough to keep us around a 3 seed.

Only 2 wins (likely Quad 3 wins), and things are more dicey. However, a 3 seed could still very well be on table. This is the year where avoiding the 4 line is imperative, since the 1 seeds this year are far and away better than the 2 seeds.

Getting a 2/3 seed and things line up well to have a great shot at E8. 4 seed, and getting to E8 would likely mean beating a Duke/Mich/Arizona. That would be a major uphill battle.

This week is so imperative to avoid the Quad 3 loss, which would set us back to the 4 line going into BTT.
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3 wins can still get us a 2 seed
 
#168      
OrangeBlue98
Fly Illini Fly! said:
Man do I want UCONN as the 1seed.

I’d MUCH rather not see Arizona/Duke/Michigan,
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The only intrigue will be in the bracket that doesn’t have Duke, Arizona, or Michigan. If anything less than 2/3 of pool brackets have those three teams in the Final Four. I’ll be surprised.
 
#169      
GoodePodzMelendez
I am under the impression is that the Quarters would be Illinois's first game in the BTT?

It'd be so demoralizing to win vs. Oregon and at Maryland, only to lose to a a vengeful PU team in your first game of the BTT.

A #3 seed it would be. And although I still feel they would win in R2, there still a chance for them to blow it.
Click to expand...
Yes. Most likely a 4 seed in the BTT if things go as they seem unless some horrendous upsets happen. We will probably play Purdue as the 5 seed in the Quarters as we will have the same record. I doubt MSU or Nebraska will lose 2 more games. MSU will have the 3 seed unless they beat Michigan next week in AA. So the winner of us and Purdue gets Michigan in the Semis. And right now, as fatigued as we are, we may not get to the Semis. The only hope I have is Purdue is not playing very well at this point. Brad said we are built for March but in reality, we were built for January. Wagler is drained and frustrated. He has labored the last few games. Our bigs are not physical enough to make a run at a BTT. Davis is playing his heart out but it’s not enough. Nice piece but not a 27 minute guy. Ben is playing out of his mind on defense but he was overwhelmed last night. We will most likely get a 3 seed in the Tourney and run into a 6 seed that will make things difficult for us in the Round of 32. Brad needs to learn to build a team of 10 D1 quality players. Not 8. Huge misses on the deep end of our bench. We are truly fatigued just like in 22. I hate wasting Wagler’s season but you can tell he is not playing like he was earlier in the season. Teams have scouted him and defense him with bigger guys.
 
#171      
Altuve27
Doesn’t mean anything. Just passing along the information. Lunardi has dropped Illinois to the 9th overall seed.

Really need to pick up two wins next week, and look like we have some idea of what we are doing.
 
#174      
21ChampaignSt
IMO, UConn and Florida are now clearly ahead of us for the 4th and 5th spot in the S-curve. Houston is probably ahead of us at the moment for the 6th spot. Leaving us, ISU, and Purdue battling for the last two 2 seeds.

The way I see it:

Make it to Sunday of the BTT = Guaranteed 2 seed regardless of what else happens

Make it to Saturday = Probably a two seed if both ISU and Purdue don't advance to their conference championships

Get bounced on Friday = 3 seed likely unless we get a lot of help elsewhere
 
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